NBR Winners

For the films of 2013
ITALIANO
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Re: NBR Winners

Postby ITALIANO » Wed Dec 04, 2013 3:15 pm

Greg wrote:The big surprise to me is no mention in Foreign Language film for either Blue Is The Warmest Color or The Great Beauty.


Yes, but interestingly they found a place for The Hunt, which is exactly the kind of (good but far from great, unchallenging) foreign film that this group - and the Academy - can obviously like alot.

As for the English-language movies, it's too early to say, of course, and I'm sure that 12 Years A Slave (which I haven't seen yet) will have time to get in the race. Still, for a film which only two days ago was considered by some to be a potential three-acting-Oscars winner, it's not like its actors are exactly getting lots of prizes till now. And also, I might be wrong, but from what I've heard I feel that, unlike, say, The King's Speech, this is the kind of movie that SHOULD win critics' awards. Which obviously could still happen - we'll see.

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Re: NBR Winners

Postby Sabin » Wed Dec 04, 2013 3:03 pm

Mister Tee wrote
At this point, if LA doesn't pick 12 Years a Slave, can it seriously be called front-runner?

Yes.

FURTHER ELABORATION: Amour, The Descendants, The Social Network, The Hurt Locker, WALL*E, There WIll Be Blood, Letters from Iwo Jima, Brokeback Mountain, Sideways, American Splendor, About Schmidt, In the Bedroom, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, The Insider, Saving Private Ryan, L.A. Confidential, Secrets & Lies, Leaving Las Vegas, Pulp Fiction, Schindler's List. Bam! Two in twenty years!

FURTHER ELABORATION STILL: but I get your meaning. I wrote down Her as my LAFCA prediction and I'm not likely to change it. 12 Years a Slave has to be considered the front-runner, if not the predestined winner. The reason I'm not sold on it as a predestined winner or the front-runner is because I've seen it, not because it didn't dominate the Iowa equivalent of the Oscar season.

It's all-but guaranteed the most Golden Globe nominations, right? Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Director, Screenplay, Score. The only film that can ratchet up that many is American Hustle, and group think, which sways by the minute, may be ecstatic about its chances but it's competing in a different category and apparently the HFP doesn't love it. I'll be seeing it tonight so I'll tell you all what i think of it.
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Re: NBR Winners

Postby Eric » Wed Dec 04, 2013 2:43 pm

Mister Tee wrote:How are the Broadcasters going to screw up such a delightfully scattered year?

Easy, they're going to hand the lions share of nominations to the movies everyone's been predicting for months: 12 Years, Gravity, Captain Phillips, The Wolf of Wall Street and Saving Mr. Banks.

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Re: NBR Winners

Postby OscarGuy » Wed Dec 04, 2013 2:38 pm

Tripp, I'm assuming you're talking about no repeats in the major categories, but The Wind Rises and Stories We Tell are repeats. The Wind Rises would have to sweep most of the prizes to beat off the "they're due" sentiment surrounding Frozen. Of course, Disney will keep making movies, Miyazaki will not.
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Re: NBR Winners

Postby Mister Tee » Wed Dec 04, 2013 2:24 pm

Eric wrote:
Mister Tee wrote:At this point, if LA doesn't pick 12 Years a Slave, can it seriously be called front-runner?

If some were surmising that Llewyn Davis' setting would curry extra favor with New York critics, I'm starting to wonder if the very LA undertones (and, obv, skylines) of Her might lead to that movie repeating with the LAFCA.

I don't know that I've ever been as clueless about what LA might pick. What you say is certainly a point; they've slso always been hugely supportive of Payne (three best picture wins); Gravity got many of its best reviews out there (and Cuaron did better there than anywhere else in best director balloting for Children of Men); they showed as recently as last year a willingness to pick an non-US film, pointing to Blue.

If you count the Gotham prizes (which of course I don't, really), three different films have been named the year's best this week, and all three were titles that might have as easily gone through the season without winning a thing. Now we're down to only two traditional spots (LA & NSFC), with multiple titles we might have expected to score bigger looking for best picture attention. It's really fun to watch. How are the Broadcasters going to screw up such a delightfully scattered year?

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Re: NBR Winners

Postby The Original BJ » Wed Dec 04, 2013 2:03 pm

There's some irony to the fact that Bruce Dern made a big fuss about not being considered a supporting actor, only to have his costar pick up the slack in the race for this year's most ridiculous category fraud prize.

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Re: NBR Winners

Postby Eric » Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:52 pm

Mister Tee wrote:At this point, if LA doesn't pick 12 Years a Slave, can it seriously be called front-runner?

If some were surmising that Llewyn Davis' setting would curry extra favor with New York critics, I'm starting to wonder if the very LA undertones (and, obv, skylines) of Her might lead to that movie repeating with the LAFCA.

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Re: NBR Winners

Postby Mister Tee » Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:45 pm

The obvious big miss, after yesterday, is American Hustle. While NY gave a big shutout to Wolf of Wall Street, this group seems to view the two late-debut-ers in precisely opposite fashion.

The other film you'd really expect to see on the top ten is Captain Phillips. And something like The Butler might have turned up. (With this group, anyway, Saving Mr. Banks is the dominant sentimental-old-folks choice, acing out Butler and Philomena)

At this point, if LA doesn't pick 12 Years a Slave, can it seriously be called front-runner?

NBR's long-term tendencies bear out: Spike Jonze, the Coens, Warner Brothers (Prisoners, as predicted). Does this mean Her could really compete with the big guns? Recall: we all though Hugo was an idiosyncratic pick when NBR announced two years ago, and it went on to become an Oscar juggernaut.

I don't know if it's deliberate, but NBR of late has seemingly made a point of not replicating whatever critics awards preceded it. Good get for Bruce Dern, obviously, and a major one for Emma Thompson (as BJ says in another thread, SOMEONE is going to be squeezed out for best actress, so every prize is helpful). Will Forte arouses conflicting emotions in me: I loved his work, but it's as blatant category fraud as one could imagine. The Octavia Spencer pick makes me think the supporting actress category could remain undecided right to the end -- lots of candidates, but no one that seems like The Sure One.

The groups are doing their best for Miyazaki; it remains to be seen if that'll counter-balance the commercial behemoth Frozen appears to be.

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Re: NBR Winners

Postby mlrg » Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:45 pm

Best Actor: aside from Eastwood's win in Gran Torino, NBR's Best Actor have at least been nominated at the Oscar since Sean Penn in Mystic River in 2003. So that bodes well for Dern.

Best Actress: aside from Swinton and Manville wins being snubbed by the Oscar, all of their Best Actress picks have at least been nominated all the way back to Susan Sarandon in 1991. So make that as you will.

Best Supporting Actor: aside from last year where Leo snubbed by the Oscar (as always), their supporting actors picks have at least been nominated all the way back to 2000 when Phoenix won. So maybe Forte is actually in the race.

Best Supporting Actress: this where they are a mess. Their last two wins were a no for Oscar, before that they hit it with Weaver, Kendrick, Cruz, and Amy Ryan. But still their history in supporting actress is not really a good sign for Spencer. So...

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Re: NBR Winners

Postby Greg » Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:44 pm

The big surprise to me is no mention in Foreign Language film for either Blue Is The Warmest Color or The Great Beauty.
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Re: NBR Winners

Postby mlrg » Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:41 pm

Big Magilla wrote:
Eric wrote:If no Judi Dench, at least we got the great Emma Thompson


Emma Thompson is Magilla's back up pony :)

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Re: NBR Winners

Postby Big Magilla » Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:38 pm

Eric wrote:I never thought I'd live to see the day when I respected the National Board of Review's choice approximately 3,937 times as much as the NYFCC's.

Not having seen all the contenders I can't exactly concur but these picks are more to my sensibilities on paper anyway.

For once my last minute changes proved correct. No August: Osage County, no Captain Phillips, but both Her and The Wolf of Wall Street were not only in contention, but actually won a few prizes.

If no Judi Dench, at least we got the great Emma Thompson instead of the over-rated Cate Blanchett. For comparison, I think Lily Tomlin's Emmy nominated take on a fictional, albeit malevolent, Mrs. Madoff in Season 3 of Damages was ten times better than Blanchett's. It's the first time in my life I stood up and applauded when a character jumped off the Brooklyn Bridge. Now if Blanchett had jumped off the Golden Gate Bridge, we might have had something.
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Re: NBR Winners

Postby Eric » Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:37 pm

Meanwhile, in a pretty fantastic year for documentaries, this now marks 2-for-2 for Stories We Tell, which sort of mystifies me.

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Re: NBR Winners

Postby ITALIANO » Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:35 pm

Well, we can't complain... Very interesting race for the moment.

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Re: NBR Winners

Postby FilmFan720 » Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:26 pm

Let the games begin...not a single repeat winner. Does this mean we could have a real race this year almost across the board?

And is her a more populist possibility than we were thinking?
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