Critics Choice Nominations

For the films of 2013
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Re: Critics Choice Nominations

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Dec 17, 2013 7:18 am

Ah, yes, the piles, the piles. It comes back!

With five nominees and a 20% total it's statistically impossible to get five nominees from first ballots. That would mean that five films, and only five films, would have to receive an equal number of votes on the first ballot. I can see three films doing that, but four would be a stretch and five virtually impossible.

With an indeterminate number from 5-10 and a 5% total it's quite possible that ten or even eleven or twelve films would receive 5% or more in first ballot votes. If that happens I presume they would take the ten with the highest totals. While Captain Phillips will certainly be on many ballots, I just can't see it being number one on very many of them. If they don't get enough first ballot votes from ten films and they have to go a second pile, it's quite possible that Captain Phillips will be number two on enough lists to make it, but I suspect it will be number three at best which makes it difficult to make the cut in such a competitive year.
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Re: Critics Choice Nominations

Postby Okri » Mon Dec 16, 2013 9:05 pm

The Original BJ wrote:To respond to a couple quick things:

I've actually been thinking that we could very well have 10 Best Picture nominees this year. I know many assume the magic number is 9, given the outcome of the last two years, but if an average year like 2011 can produce that many nominees, I could absolutely see an outcome where 10 movies meet the level of enthusiasm required to get onto the Picture ballot this year. I would say the weak link from this slate is Saving Mr. Banks, which seems to be duking it out with August: Osage County, Philomena, and The Butler for the attention of more mid-level votes. (Magilla, I highly doubt Captain Phillips is vulnerable -- it was a box-office hit and has performed very solidly with the precursors so far.)


We really didn't talk about this last year, but I actually thought the dynamics of 2011 and 2012 were different enough that we ended up with the same number suggested to me, at least, that the math favours 8-10 more than 5-7 (I had only predicted six last year, if I recall)

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Re: Critics Choice Nominations

Postby OscarGuy » Mon Dec 16, 2013 7:51 pm

It's been the "Pile Method" for years. Wherein they place everything in piles based on the first place vote recipient. Any pile meeting the specific threshold (which used to be 20%) was set aside. The smallest piles were redistributed to the largest based on the second-place vote until another threshold was reached. So on and so forth. They just manipulated it based on the % now and the maximum number of nominees.
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Re: Critics Choice Nominations

Postby Big Magilla » Mon Dec 16, 2013 6:00 pm

There was a different process before the changeover to 10. I believe it was a simple plurality vote without all the convoluted nonsense they go through now. Even so, those films could get first place votes. Throughout the history of the Academy Awards films that employed the largest number of people whether they be actors or artisans tended to get Best Picture nominations in addition to multiple technical nods.
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Re: Critics Choice Nominations

Postby The Original BJ » Mon Dec 16, 2013 4:49 pm

Big Magilla wrote:What gets left out depends less on what was a hit at the box office or with critics than the number of first place votes a film gets, followed by second place votes on the ballots that weren't counted in the first round and so on in some convoluted process no one really understands.


The "first place votes matter" argument gets made every year, and my argument generally comes down to, I can see how it HELPS movies with niche appeal (like The Tree of Life), but I can't see how candidates can be written off because people ASSUME they won't get number one votes. Even in the five-wide era, movies like Elizabeth, Chocolat, Seabiscuit, Master and Commander, Frost/Nixon, to name just a few, would regularly get Best Picture nominations despite it seeming unbelievable that they could amass a significant number of #1 votes. I think the "but it won't get #1 votes" argument is a lot stronger for those movies that just have biffed in the precursors (i.e. movies that aren't generating ANY enthusiasm) than those films which have done well but don't SEEM to be any group's top choice.

It is very true, as Mister Tee & Italiano said, that a great year doesn't necessarily mean we'll have more nominees -- we are still getting used to how this new system works. But I'd argue that if a year this bountiful produces, say, only five nominees, then clearly something is wrong with this system. (To which I'm sure many would say, welcome to the Oscars.)

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Re: Critics Choice Nominations

Postby Sabin » Mon Dec 16, 2013 3:56 pm

If Tom Hanks picked up a single major citation for his work in Saving Mr. Banks, I'd say "Sure, maybe the film still has a chance." But he hasn't. It couldn't beat out Lee Daniels' The Butler or August, Osage County for a Best Acting Ensemble nomination. Heck, Best Adapted Screenplay has six nominees but they were content to keep Best Original Screenplay at five and leave off Saving Mr. Banks. This is not a terribly beloved film.
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Re: Critics Choice Nominations

Postby ITALIANO » Mon Dec 16, 2013 3:56 pm

It's true that many strong movies in one year doesn't necessarily mean 10 or even 9 Best Picture nominees.

Captain Phillips, though, is the typical movie which GETS a Best Picture nomination. It's also the typical movie which gets several nomination - and it is, of course, the typical movie which wins none.

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Re: Critics Choice Nominations

Postby Mister Tee » Mon Dec 16, 2013 3:51 pm

The Original BJ wrote:I've actually been thinking that we could very well have 10 Best Picture nominees this year. I know many assume the magic number is 9, given the outcome of the last two years, but if an average year like 2011 can produce that many nominees, I could absolutely see an outcome where 10 movies meet the level of enthusiasm required to get onto the Picture ballot this year.

I've heard the opposite argument made, as well: that there are so many well-liked films this year, that, with votes widely distributed, it may be hard for some to summon up the requisite 5%, and we could end up with a shorter batch than we've come to expect.

Thing is, we're still learning how this new system plays out. In three of the four years since it was instituted, screenplay nominees got into best picture on an 8-or-9-of-10 basis -- but in 2011, it was a measly 5. Which is the norm? And we still don't know if the different modes of voting in best picture/director (preferential in the first, straight choice in the second) could make a difference. So far it hasn't (even last year's split only happened because Affleck wasn't nominated), but if there's the interesting three-way race that seems to be shaping up this year, that could change.

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Re: Critics Choice Nominations

Postby Big Magilla » Mon Dec 16, 2013 3:49 pm

It's all rather silly, but I seem to recall reading somewhere that the number of nominated films depends on the percentage of votes a film gets, not the number of potential nominees, which is why the consensus seems to be that there will be 9 again this year.

What gets left out depends less on what was a hit at the box office or with critics than the number of first place votes a film gets, followed by second place votes on the ballots that weren't counted in the first round and so on in some convoluted process no one really understands. That's why niche films like Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close can get in over more highly anticipated nominees such as The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo. So, if these are the top ten vote-getters and there are only going to be nine nominations I suspect that the one to go will either be the popular film that isn't quite as popular as the other popular films or the some like it, some don't candidate, not the only middle-of-the-road candidate on the list. In fact, I'd go so far as to say there could be two middle-of-the-road candidates and both Captain Phillips or some other well liked but not necessarily top tier hit and The Wolf of Wall Street or another love it/hate it contender or both could get left in the dust. Or not.
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Re: Critics Choice Nominations

Postby The Original BJ » Mon Dec 16, 2013 2:38 pm

To respond to a couple quick things:

I've actually been thinking that we could very well have 10 Best Picture nominees this year. I know many assume the magic number is 9, given the outcome of the last two years, but if an average year like 2011 can produce that many nominees, I could absolutely see an outcome where 10 movies meet the level of enthusiasm required to get onto the Picture ballot this year. I would say the weak link from this slate is Saving Mr. Banks, which seems to be duking it out with August: Osage County, Philomena, and The Butler for the attention of more mid-level votes. (Magilla, I highly doubt Captain Phillips is vulnerable -- it was a box-office hit and has performed very solidly with the precursors so far.)

Supporting Actor seems to have coalesced rather quickly around the six names Broadcast cited today. Assuming there isn't a late-season surge by Jonah Hill, it seems like one of these six is going to get the boot, and Brühl still seems like he could be the one to go, despite showing up everywhere so far. (I'd say it's him or Gandolfini -- having now seen American Hustle, I find it awfully hard to believe that Bradley Cooper would be the one ignored, with such a flashy role in a major Best Picture candidate.)

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Re: Critics Choice Nominations

Postby Big Magilla » Mon Dec 16, 2013 2:11 pm

No surprises, but if here are only 9 nominees for Best Picture, what is the most likely to be left off Oscar's list of these 10?

I'm thinking either Captain Phillips which doesn't seem to be anyone's first choice for anything or The Wolf of Wall Street, which seems to be polarizing - some love it, some hate it.
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Re: Critics Choice Nominations

Postby Mister Tee » Mon Dec 16, 2013 2:05 pm

The Original BJ wrote:I actually laughed out loud when I read the Best Young Actor/Actress nomination for Adèle Exarchopoulos. I mean, there's something clearly hilarious about this, no?

I think Adele should take all her co-nominees out for a drink.

I was thinking the other day that, while I never "care" about this set of nominations, when they came first, they at least represented the first attempt (and all too often a successful one) at setting the field. Now, though, they're just carbon-copying most of what we've already seen. And their fields-of-six show their ultimate aim is covering their bets.

If there's anything "noteworthy", it's that Tom Hanks/Mr. Banks has now gone through all the groups most likely to fall for such a nomination without a bite. Oh, and that, Oprah aside, even they didn't fall for The Butler.

Still not believing in Daniel Bruhl.

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Re: Critics Choice Nominations

Postby OscarGuy » Mon Dec 16, 2013 1:17 pm

Notice how DiCaprio is nominated for Comedy Actor, but not the film for Comedy Picture. Then, of the six Comedy Picture nominees, only ONE is also a Best Picture nominee? So, in truth, wouldn't you think The Wolf of Wall Street is liked less than those 6 Comedy Pictures, but better than five of them? This group does anything they can to make sure all of the contenders are nominated somewhere. Amy Adams couldn't crack the Best Actress slate (Yay for Brie Larson!), but she did appear on the Comedy Actress slate.

And if you take away the genre nominations, American Hustle only has 10...
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Re: Critics Choice Nominations

Postby The Original BJ » Mon Dec 16, 2013 1:15 pm

I actually laughed out loud when I read the Best Young Actor/Actress nomination for Adèle Exarchopoulos. I mean, there's something clearly hilarious about this, no?

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Re: Critics Choice Nominations

Postby Sonic Youth » Mon Dec 16, 2013 12:24 pm

I'm surprised they don't have 11 movies in their top 10.
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