Mister Tee wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:The PGA has an 80% match-up record with Oscar. Scratch Wolf of Wall Street and Blue Jasmine and replace with Inside Llewyn Davis and Philomena if ten Oscar nominees. If 9, take out Captain Phillips.
If Greengrass shows up on the DGA list, will you still doubt its best picture chances? Is it your 2013 version of Life of Pi?
I don't get the reference to Life to Pi. Did I disparage its chances last year? If so, I've forgotten that.
I could be all wrong but I just don't see Captain Phillips getting very many first place votes for Best Picture regardless of Greengrass' likely DGA nod. Greengrass was nominated for an Oscar for United 13, but that didn't help the film get nominated for Best Picture, although that was in the five Best Picture nominations era. If the ten Best Picture nominations include second or third choices it has a better shot.
I also wouldn't be shocked to see Tom Hanks' other film, Saving Mr. Banks, left off Oscar's list, but there are probably enough Disney loyalists to keep that from happening. Philomena, of course, has 100-1 odds against winning, but there are enough older Academy members who absolutely love the film to give it more first place mentions than many of the supposed front-runners knocking out the likes of Wolf of Wall Street, which, alas, will only add fuel to the fire of Jeff Wells' campaign to get old-timers thrown out of the Academy.
For the record, Philomena is presently number nine on my own not ready to be posted ten best list.
“Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire