PGA Nominations

For the films of 2013
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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby dws1982 » Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:40 pm

The Original BJ wrote:Then again, the people I talk to in the industry (including the wife of an Academy member, who fills out his ballot for him) are just gaga for Saving Mr. Banks, so the subject matter might just appeal to many people who make movies to an almost inexplicable degree.

Last year's Best Picture winner was about Hollywood Saving the Day in an international crisis. Saving Mr. Banks is about Hollywood helping PJ Travers with her daddy issues. (False as that premise is.) Not quite as high stakes, but it's not hard to imagine it'll resonate with some voters.

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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby The Original BJ » Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:14 pm

A Serious Man, Winter's Bone, The Tree of Life, and Amour all made it onto the Oscar list without being cited here, so it seems that precedent would indicate that an artier effort will replace one of these -- as others have said, Inside Llewyn Davis seems most poised to be that film this year.

I've always assumed that, even (especially?) in a strong year, something more milquetoast would have to make the lineup, but it's interesting how none of those efforts have managed to stake their claim on that spot. August: Osage County and The Butler scored at SAG, Philomena was embraced by the Globes, and Saving Mr. Banks earned a much-needed spot here, but none of these are making consistent appearances.

I continue to wonder, as I suggested after SAG, if Dallas Buyers Club won't be the benefit of this fairly tepid reception for these entries. DBC is definitely a more traditional effort, but I personally found it to be a lot better crafted and more intelligent than these other second tier options, and I wonder if it might be the consensus choice among those looking for something less auteurist-y.

Then again, the people I talk to in the industry (including the wife of an Academy member, who fills out his ballot for him) are just gaga for Saving Mr. Banks, so the subject matter might just appeal to many people who make movies to an almost inexplicable degree.

I agree with what Mister Tee said -- this seems like a year where the expansion actually makes the race seem more muddled. In a five-wide field, I'd say we'd be down to about six movies that could conceivably make Best Picture. But there seem to be a substantial number of films that could fill spots 7-10, making the possible options A LOT more varied than a year like 2010, when Best Picture predictions basically came down to whether or not you had Winter's Bone or The Town in the last spot.

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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby Okri » Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:42 pm

Tee comparing Saving Mr. Banks to The Green Mile sent shivers down my spine, especially since I've been less confident prediction Her then others.

I'm still startled at how wrong I was regarding Life of Pi, truthfully.

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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby Sonic Youth » Thu Jan 02, 2014 5:14 pm

I am the only one I know who doesn't revere the shit out of Saving Mr. Banks. Everyone who has seen it (mostly older than me) loves it, or at least likes it very much. I know it's anecdotal but I think it's definitely happening.

Before anyone says "You need a wider spectrum of friends", the people I know who would hate this movie aren't likely to go out of their way see it in the first place.
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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby Big Magilla » Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:52 pm

Mister Tee wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:The PGA has an 80% match-up record with Oscar. Scratch Wolf of Wall Street and Blue Jasmine and replace with Inside Llewyn Davis and Philomena if ten Oscar nominees. If 9, take out Captain Phillips.

If Greengrass shows up on the DGA list, will you still doubt its best picture chances? Is it your 2013 version of Life of Pi?

I don't get the reference to Life to Pi. Did I disparage its chances last year? If so, I've forgotten that.

I could be all wrong but I just don't see Captain Phillips getting very many first place votes for Best Picture regardless of Greengrass' likely DGA nod. Greengrass was nominated for an Oscar for United 13, but that didn't help the film get nominated for Best Picture, although that was in the five Best Picture nominations era. If the ten Best Picture nominations include second or third choices it has a better shot.

I also wouldn't be shocked to see Tom Hanks' other film, Saving Mr. Banks, left off Oscar's list, but there are probably enough Disney loyalists to keep that from happening. Philomena, of course, has 100-1 odds against winning, but there are enough older Academy members who absolutely love the film to give it more first place mentions than many of the supposed front-runners knocking out the likes of Wolf of Wall Street, which, alas, will only add fuel to the fire of Jeff Wells' campaign to get old-timers thrown out of the Academy.

For the record, Philomena is presently number nine on my own not ready to be posted ten best list.
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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby Mister Tee » Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:34 pm

Eric wrote:As of this minute, I'd call the Oscar line-up this, in order of likelihood (I'm guessing just 8 this year):

12 Years a Slave
Gravity
American Hustle
Nebraska
Her
Captain Phillips
Inside Llewyn Davis
The Wolf of Wall Street
-------
Dallas Buyers Club
Lee Daniels' The Butler


I was thinking earlier, what would be the likely candidates were the five-film slate still operative? I think the first three on your list would almost surely be film/director nominees. After that, it would probably be 2-of-3 from your next three (though I think I'd rate Captain Phillips above the other two), but there'd always be the nightmare possibility of Saving Mr. Banks Green Mile-ing its way past the pack. Under directing, I'd see Jonze as pretty certain, with Greengrass/Payne/Scorsese/Coens battling it out for the last spot.

This is the rare year where the expanded field doesn't eliminate the suspense, because there are so many films that could conceivably compete. Plus we don't know if the breadth of the field makes it more likely we'll have a greater or lesser number of nominees.

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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby Mister Tee » Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:25 pm

Big Magilla wrote:The PGA has an 80% match-up record with Oscar. Scratch Wolf of Wall Street and Blue Jasmine and replace with Inside Llewyn Davis and Philomena if ten Oscar nominees. If 9, take out Captain Phillips.

If Greengrass shows up on the DGA list, will you still doubt its best picture chances? Is it your 2013 version of Life of Pi?

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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby Eric » Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:22 pm

As of this minute, I'd call the Oscar line-up this, in order of likelihood (I'm guessing just 8 this year):

12 Years a Slave
Gravity
American Hustle
Nebraska
Her
Captain Phillips
Inside Llewyn Davis
The Wolf of Wall Street
-------
Dallas Buyers Club
Lee Daniels' The Butler

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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby Big Magilla » Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:53 pm

The PGA has an 80% match-up record with Oscar. Scratch Wolf of Wall Street and Blue Jasmine and replace with Inside Llewyn Davis and Philomena if ten Oscar nominees. If 9, take out Captain Phillips.
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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby Eric » Thu Jan 02, 2014 2:24 pm

Mister Tee wrote:The documentary slate has an undertone of "Critics? We don't need no stinking critics"

Audience? We don't need no stinking audience!

Anyway, I would tend to agree with Sasha Stone (which doesn't happen altogether often these days) that Llewyn Davis is the one PGA snubbee that stands the best chance of cracking into the Oscar line-up. Everything else is more or less skidmarked.

As to which of the PGA nominees that are most likely to get scratched, since 11 nominees isn't possible, I can only hope Dallas Buyers Club is at the top of that list. But Tee's probably right. Between those two major guild citations, it's almost certainly in that "actors rule all" sweet spot once enjoyed by The Blind Side.

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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby Sabin » Thu Jan 02, 2014 1:54 pm

I feel pretty confident that Inside Llewyn Davis is getting in. I thought Blue Jasmine had a good shot all year until the film itself failed to pick up what appears to be a single citation. It's certainly helped by this. As is Saving Mr. Banks.

I still wonder about The Butler. This is a weighted system and people who love The Butler are going to put it as their Number One. I wonder if Blue Jasmine or Saving Mr. Banks have that same level of support.
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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby OscarGuy » Thu Jan 02, 2014 1:31 pm

Dammit. I commented on this on my site and somehow missed the Inside Llewyn Davis exclusion. I'm actually kinda surprised...but when you consider the movie isn't really about much (at least to producers who need to have blockbusters or message movies to recognize), I guess it isn't surprising they passed it over.
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Re: PGA Nominations

Postby Mister Tee » Thu Jan 02, 2014 1:27 pm

The only major omittee on the arty end is Inside Llewyn Davis. Worth remembering A Serious Man didn't make PGA either.

More damage was done at the cornball populist end, with Saving Mr. Banks the only real qualifier. Philomena and (most shockingly) The Butler left off. A surprise $100 million grosser should have been right up the PGA's alley.

PGA + SAG seems a good resume for Dallas Buyers Club to eke onto the Oscar best picture slate.

Nebraska and Her are further strengthened as best picture candidates; Wolf of Wall Street gets a much-needed boost; and Blue Jasmine -- which seemed a fading candidate except for acting and screenplay -- gets its best news of the season.

The documentary slate has an undertone of "Critics? We don't need no stinking critics"

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PGA Nominations

Postby FilmFan720 » Thu Jan 02, 2014 12:56 pm

PICTURE

American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Captain Philips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave
Wolf of Wall Street

ANIMATED FILM

The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Epic
Frozen
Monsters University

DOCUMENTARY

A Place at the Table
Far Out Isn't Far Enough: The Tomi Ungerer Story
Life According to sam
We Steal Secrets: The Story of WikiLeaks
Which Way is the Front Line From Here? The Life and Times of Tim Hetherington
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