First 2014 Predicitons

For the films of 2014
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:24 pm

Mister Tee wrote:I'd be more convinced about Whiplash getting into best picture if the grosses were stronger; Dear White People, for example, is doing better business. Of course, Winter's Bone got in with a very small total gross. And you're certainly correct, the enthusiasm level for the film seems high.


I see lack of strong box office as a deterrent for big budget studio pics, not independent films. Dear White People strikes me as an Indie Spirit contender. Whiplash is a film that appeals strongly to young Hollywood which otherwise doesn't have a strong contender. Whether that's enough to get it nominated, I don't know. In a slate of five probably not, but in in a slate of nine or ten it has a chance.
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby Sabin » Tue Oct 21, 2014 4:01 pm

Mister Tee wrote
As far as Gone Girl: I think it has more going for it than Dragon Tattoo. It's turned into a bigger hit than anyone expected, where Dragon Tattoo was -- considering the wild popularity of its source -- only so-so. And Gone Girl's got enough talk-about-it vibe (the whole "what does this say about marriage") to provide some content heft. I'd say it's more likely to be best picture-nominated than not.

I think you have a point. What I'm interested in is how it holds up over the next couple of months. It opened like wildfire and became a talking point, and now that the dialogue has settled a bit, I'd be interested in knowing how it holds up being remembered as perhaps just a piece of entertainment.

Mister Tee wrote
Oh, and The Gambler: if it turns out to be good, I'll be exceedingly surprised, based on the original, which I remember feeling I endured as much as watched.

Well, they've got a screenplay by William Monaghan and it's being directed by Ryan Wyatt, who did a very good job with Rise of the Planet of the Apes. They're going for entertainment and late in the year they might find it.
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby Sabin » Tue Oct 21, 2014 3:56 pm

They're doing the opposite of what one does in a position of confidence. Observe the Gravity rollout last year. It's possible that Christopher Nolan is holding enough strings to mastermind this film's release to his liking, but the closer the advance reviews arrive to the film's release, the less time there is for "on second thought" rumblings to get out there once the initial impression wears off. I had to wait a week or two to read anything terribly negative about Inception or The Dark Knight Rises. Right now, they're selling the mystery box to fever pitch.
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby Mister Tee » Tue Oct 21, 2014 3:55 pm

I'd be more convinced about Whiplash getting into best picture if the grosses were stronger; Dear White People, for example, is doing better business. Of course, Winter's Bone got in with a very small total gross. And you're certainly correct, the enthusiasm level for the film seems high.

If there's any way the film can compete for adapted rather than original, they ought to jump at it. Original is already quite stacked, with Birdman, Boyhood, Grand Budapest & (presumed) Foxcatcher...where adapted has nothing but Imitation Game that you'd bet rent money on.

I still think of Grand Budapest as typifying BJ's bird-in-hand rule: it's the greatest success so far from a guy who's knocked on the screenplay door multiple times. It has a base of potential nominations (screenplay, design, possibly costumes or score). And, by anecdote like Sabin's and other I've heard, it's more BELOVED than any previous Anderson effort. It of course could be forgotten if five films opening between now and Christmas turn out wowsers. But we have no way of knowing that.

And it's the fact that we don't know about that string of films that leaves everything very much up in the air. Last year, by now we had only American Hustle, Wolf of Wall Street and Saving Mr. Banks still behind the curtain -- and still they managed to confound expectation, rewrite the nominations slate at the last moment (Hustle by running the acting categories, Wolf by scoring so many glamour nominations, Mr. Banks by crapping out entirely). This year, we're still to see Interstellar, Into the Woods, Unbroken, Selma, A Most Violent Year, American Sniper and Big Eyes -- each one of them a potential race-changer or potentially nothing at all. (Plus, though we've seen initial reviews, we don't know what ultimate impact Inherent Vice or Top Five -- films at opposite ends of the spectrum -- will have.) That leaves the race, as far as I can see, truly undefined: a rarity when we're only six weeks from critics' awards. Deciding which of those unseen seven will count, and which can be dismissed, is strictly wild-guessing at this point. I see people at the other sites blithely touting some (Interstellar, Selma, Unbroken) and sneering at others (Big Eyes. A Most Violent Year), but all that indicates is their own prejudices.

As far as Gone Girl: I think it has more going for it than Dragon Tattoo. It's turned into a bigger hit than anyone expected, where Dragon Tattoo was -- considering the wild popularity of its source -- only so-so. And Gone Girl's got enough talk-about-it vibe (the whole "what does this say about marriage") to provide some content heft. I'd say it's more likely to be best picture-nominated than not.

Oh, and The Gambler: if it turns out to be good, I'll be exceedingly surprised, based on the original, which I remember feeling I endured as much as watched.

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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby MovieWes » Tue Oct 21, 2014 3:35 pm

OscarGuy wrote:What makes me concerned (and should you as well) about Interstellar is that they aren't screening it very early prior to release for critics. I've heard the screenings are being scheduled week-of release, which is a practice usually reserved for films studios thinks will be poorly received by critics.


Wow, I didn't know that. Also, having gone to WB's FYC page, it looks as if the only movies the studio is pushing for Oscar consideration are The LEGO Movie, The Judge, Inherent Vice, The Hobbit, and American Sniper.
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby MovieWes » Tue Oct 21, 2014 3:28 pm

On a different note, it's worth pointing out that if The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies can manage to receive 4 nominations, Peter Jackson's Middle-earth franchise will have ended with 40 total Academy Award nominations. The last 2 films each got 3, so it's not completely out of the realm of possibility that it could happen. But will it happen?
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby OscarGuy » Tue Oct 21, 2014 3:22 pm

What makes me concerned (and should you as well) about Interstellar is that they aren't screening it very early prior to release for critics. I've heard the screenings are being scheduled week-of release, which is a practice usually reserved for films studios thinks will be poorly received by critics.
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby Sabin » Tue Oct 21, 2014 1:51 pm

Oh, it's based on a short film? Then it's definitely Adapted.

You could be right about The Grand Budapest Hotel. I see this doing better than Wes Anderson's other films but at this point there really is no reason to believe that the Academy will ever go for a Wes Anderson film unless he makes something other than a Wes Anderson film. This one was seemingly more beloved than anything he's done in some time. My father usually hates him but he adored the film. I have nine predictions for Best Picture right now, with The Grand Budapest Hotel (or, well, A Most Violent Year) coming in at ninth. Until The Gambler, A Most Violent Year, Unbroken, and American Sniper come into better view, I don't see any reason to take it off the list.

I think Kristen Stewart is getting in. The word is out. There's no denying it. She' s an actress of talent who has very strong scenes/holds her own with Julianne Moore, the presumed Best Actress winner this year.

MovieWes, you just convinced me about Josh Brolin.

Here's my thing about Christopher Nolan. People say he's the kind of guy who's destined for a nomination and increasingly I don't see that being the case. Nobody really knows what kind of film Interstellar is going to be but it looks like a ride, which more and more seems to be what he wants to make. The only thing that gives me hope is that he's working with Jonathan again. It's entirely possible that it will get a Best Picture nomination but unless it's something truly special, he could wind up getting boxed out. A good lineup for the Dramatic section of the Golden Globes already looks like Foxcatcher, The Imitation Game, The Theory of Everything, Unbroken, with the last spot going to American Sniper, Boyhood, The Gambler, A Most Violent Year, Gone Girl, and Mr. Turner.
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby The Original BJ » Tue Oct 21, 2014 12:56 pm

Do we think Whiplash is going to be considered an Original or Adapted script? The marketing is making no secret of the fact that a short version preceded the feature version -- which led to Adapted classifications for Sling Blade and District 9 -- although I believe the feature script was written first. Seems like a scenario that could be finagled.

I also think Whiplash is getting in Best Picture. It seems to be inspiring a level of ecstatic passion in people that usually leads to a nomination.

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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Oct 21, 2014 12:50 pm

There's still too much unknown, but at the moment based on Movie Wes' list...

Best Picture - I'm not seeing Grand Budapest Hotel at all. Gone Girl has gone from being a sure bet to an iffy proposition as has Foxcatcher. They could easily be replaced by American Sniper, Mr. Turner and A Most Violent Year or Whiplash or both if ten slots.

Director - Not sure how the directors' branch sees Angelina Jolie or Christopher Nolan for that matter. They could make room for Clint Eastwood for what will almost surely be his last shot at an Oscar for American Sniper over one or the other.

Actor - Cumberbatch, Keaton and Redmayne for sure; Carrell, probably, O'Connell maybe but the fourth and fifth slots could be filled by Bradley Cooper in American Sniper, Oscar Isaac in A Most Violent Year or Timothy Spall in Mr. Turner.

Actress - looks solid, but agree with Sabin that Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year could be substituted for Amy Adams.

Supporting Actor - I'm seeing Mark Ruffalo over Channing Tatum in Foxcatcher. I'm also seeing Robert Duvall in The Judge over Josh Brolin.

Supporting Actress - I expect Sienna Miller to take the fifth slot over Katharine Waterston and Kristen Stewart if the film lives up to expectations. On the other hand if Interstellar lives up to expectations I'd expect to see Chastain nominated here before I'd expect to see her in lead actress.

Supporting Actress -
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby Greg » Tue Oct 21, 2014 12:42 pm

Here is an interview with Christopher Nolan when Inception was released that gives me some pause about Interstellar:

http://www.film.com/movies/interview-ch ... -inception

In it he disparages doing extensive research when writing scripts. I think a lack of research would cause more trouble with regards to Interstellar's subject matter than it was to Inception, and this is coming from someone who loved Inception.
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby MovieWes » Tue Oct 21, 2014 12:22 pm

I have to start getting ready for work in a minute, but one thing I'd like to bring up re: Christopher Nolan is that this is the sort of ambitious film project that has been known to net filmmakers a Best Director nomination (Stanley Kubrick for 2001: A Space Odyssey, Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity). Couple that with the notion that Nolan is a director that many feel is overdue for a directing nomination, and this could be his ticket into the race. I guess we'll know soon enough after the reviews come in if he is a real threat.

I'm also of the opinion that Inherent Vice will still factor into the acting races, even if it doesn't strike a chord with voters in other categories. Let's not forget that The Master was most definitely not the Academy's cup of tea, but it still managed to get 3 acting nominations. With the exception of Hard Eight and Punch-Drunk Love, all of Anderson's films have been nominated in the acting categories. I see no reason to believe that Inherent Vice won't also pick up an acting nomination or two.
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby Greg » Tue Oct 21, 2014 12:18 pm

Sabin wrote:Best Adapted Screenplay
Apparently, Ryan Wyatt's remake of The Gambler is good. If anything looks like the exciting late in the year drop, it could be The Gambler. I have it down in place of Inherent Vice.


Before I checked on IMDB and Wikipedia I thought to myself, I would never imagine that a remake of a Kenny Rogers TV movie would be a serious Oscar contender.
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby Sabin » Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:53 am

Good predictions. Random thoughts...

Best Picture
I'm starting to backpedal my thinking on Gone Girl. Perhaps it will get in, but perhaps not. I think Whiplash will make the cut. It seems to have some big fans. The reason I will go with you on Unbroken is because it looks like the December film that I always underrate. Like The Wolf of Wall Street. Or Hugo. Or The Aviator. Anything Scorsese releasing late in the year. So for now, sure. I'm kinda dubious about Interstellar. I'll wait a week to hear one or two things about it. My three wild card choices for Best Picture are The Gambler, A Most Violent Year, and Selma. Right now, I'm tossing A Most Violent Year in there.

Best Director
Currently, I'm predicting James Marsh over Christopher Nolan.

Best Actor
Very crowded field. Some very strong things about The Gambler are starting to emerge, which bodes well for Mark Wahlberg who lost some twenty pounds for the part. If Whiplash is a hit, then Miles Teller could get nominated. He's my choice over Jack O'Connell.

Best Actress
I have Jessica Chastain for A Most Violent Year over Amy Adams for Big Eyes...and really, what can you tell me about how I'm right or wrong? Who knows?

Best Supporting Actor
I don't know why but I'm just resisting this Ethan Hawke in Boyhood thing. Maybe because if it didn't take ten years to film, he wouldn't be in the conversation because it's just his persona. I'll go with him for now. I have David Oyelowo for A Most Violent Year in place of Josh Brolin.

Best Supporting Actress
I have Kristen Stewart for Still Alice in place of Katherine Waterson.

Best Original Screenplay
Looks good. Mr. Turner or A Most Violent Year could sneak in there.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Apparently, Ryan Wyatt's remake of The Gambler is good. If anything looks like the exciting late in the year drop, it could be The Gambler. I have it down in place of Inherent Vice. PTA has been sketchy with the writer's branch recently. And in place of Gone Girl, I have Still Alice.

And the rest, sure, who knows? Currently, I have The Imitation Game leading the pack with eleven nomination (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Original Score, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, and Sound Mixing) with Birdman, The Theory of Everything, and Unbroken next with eight, although what does it say about a film that needs so many writers to be any good (Unbroken)? Then Foxcatcher and Boyhood (6) and The Grand Budapest Hotel and Interstellar (5).
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Re: First 2014 Predicitons

Postby MovieWes » Mon Oct 20, 2014 8:26 pm

Best Picture
Birdman (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Boyhood (IFC Films)
Foxcatcher (Sony Pictures Classics)
Gone Girl (20th Century Fox)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
The Imitation Game (The Weinstein Company)
Interstellar (Paramount/Warner Bros.)
Theory of Everything (Focus Features)
Unbroken (Universal Pictures)

Best Director
Alejandro G. Inarritu – Birdman
Angelina Jolie – Unbroken
Richard Linklater – Boyhood
Christopher Nolan – Interstellar
Mortum Tylden – The Imitation Game

Best Actor
Steve Carrell – Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton – Birdman
Jack O’Connell – Unbroken
Eddie Redmayne – Theory of Everything

Best Actress
Amy Adams – Big Eyes
Felicity Jones – Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore – Still Alice
Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon – Wild

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin – Inherent Vice
Ethan Hawke – Boyhood
Edward Norton – Birdman
J.K. Simmons – Whiplash
Channing Tatum – Foxcatcher

Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
Laura Dern – Wild
Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game
Emma Stone – Birdman
Katherine Waterston – Inherent Vice

Best Original Screenplay
Birdman – Alejandro G. Inarritu, Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo
Boyhood – Richard Linklater
Foxcatcher – E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman
The Grand Budapest Hotel – Wes Anderson
Whiplash – Damien Chazelle

Best Adapted Screenplay
Gone Girl – Gillian Flynn
The Imitation Game – Graham Moore
Inherent Vice – Paul Thomas Anderson
Theory of Everything – Anthony McCarten
Unbroken – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen, Richard LaGravenese, William Nicholson

Best Animated Feature
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The LEGO Movie
Song of the Sea

Best Film Editing
Birdman
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Unbroken

Best Cinematography
Birdman
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Interstellar
Unbroken

Best Production Design
Exodus: Gods and Kings
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner

Best Costume Design
Belle
Exodus: Gods and Kings
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner

Best Sound Mixing
Fury
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Unbroken

Best Sound Editing
American Sniper
Fury
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar
Unbroken

Best Visual Effects
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar
X-Men: Days of Future Past

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Foxcatcher
Guardians of the Galaxy
Into the Woods

Best Original Score
Big Eyes – Danny Elfman
The Imitation Game – Alexandre Desplat
Interstellar – Hans Zimmer
Theory of Everything – Johann Johannsson
Unbroken – Alexandre Desplat

Best Original Song
“Everything is Awesome” from ‘The LEGO Movie’ (Shawn Patterson, Joshua Bartholomew, Jo Li, Andy Samberg, Akiva Schaffer, and Jorma Taccone)
“Grateful” from ‘Beyond the Lights’ (Rita Ora)
“The Last Goodbye” from ‘The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies’ (Billy Boyd, Philippa Boyens, and Fran Walsh)
“Lost Stars” from ‘Begin Again’ (Greg Alexander, Danielle Brisebois, Nick Lashley, and Nick Southwood)
“What is Love” from ‘Rio 2’ (Janelle Monae)
Last edited by MovieWes on Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
"Young men make wars and the virtues of war are the virtues of young men: courage and hope for the future. Then old men make the peace, and the vices of peace are the vices of old men: mistrust and caution." -- Alec Guinness (Lawrence of Arabia)


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