SAG Predictions

For the films of 2014
FilmFan720
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Re: SAG Predictions

Postby FilmFan720 » Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:40 am

ENSEMBLE
Birdman
Boyhood
Gone Girl
Into the Woods
Selma
SPOILER: The Theory of Everything

ACTOR
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
David Oyelo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
SPOILER: Ben Affleck, Gone Girl

ACTRESS
Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Shailene Woodley, The Fault in Our Stars
SPOILER: Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
SPOILER: Chris Pine, Into the Woods or Tom Wilkinson, Selma

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Carrie Coon, Gone Girl
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightly, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
SPOILER: Kristen Stewart, Still Alice
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anonymous1980
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Re: SAG Predictions

Postby anonymous1980 » Tue Dec 09, 2014 8:30 am

My predictions:

OUTSTANDING MOTION PICTURE ENSEMBLE

Lindsay Duncan, Zach Galifianakis, Michael Keaton, Edward Norton, Andrew Riseborough, Amy Ryan, Emma Stone and Naomi Watts, Birdman (or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

Patricia Arquette, Ellar Coltrane, Ethan Hawke and Lorelei Linklater, Boyhood

Ben Affleck, Carrie Coon, Neil Patrick Harris, Tyler Perry and Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Christine Baranski, Emily Blunt, James Corden, Johnny Depp, Anna Kendrick, Chris Pine, Meryl Streep and Tracey Ullman, Into the Woods

Carmen Ejogo, Cuba Gooding Jr., David Oyelowo, Alessandro Nivola, Giovanni Ribisi, Tim Roth, Tom Wilkinson and Oprah Winfrey, Selma


OUTSTANDING MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Steve Carrell as John DuPont, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch as Alan Turing, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton as Riggan Thomson, Birdman (or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
David Oyelowo as Martin Luther King Jr., Selma
Eddie Redmayne as Stephen Hawking, The Theory of Everything

OUTSTANDING FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Marion Cotillard as Ewa Cylbulska, The Immigrant
Felicity Jones as Jane Hawking, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore as Dr. Alice Howland, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike as Amy Dunne, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon as Cheryl Strayed, Wild

OUTSTANDING MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Ethan Hawke as Mason Sr., Boyhood
Edward Norton as Mike Shiner, Birdman (or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Mark Ruffalo as David Schultz, Foxcatcher
JK Simmons as Fletcher, Whiplash
Tom Wilkinson as Lyndon Johnson, Selma

OUTSTANDING FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Patricia Arquette as Olivia, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain as Anna Morales, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley as Joan Clarke, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone as Sam Thomson, Birdman (or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Meryl Streep as The Witch, Into the Woods

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Re: SAG Predictions

Postby The Original BJ » Mon Dec 08, 2014 9:43 pm

Mister Tee wrote:BJ/Magilla: You're probably right about Ensemble going with those five -- after Nine, who could bet against Into the Woods?


And remember, SAG also went with Hairspray in Ensemble as well.

That said, Ensemble strikes me as a perfectly appropriate place to recognize Into the Woods. I'd be hard-pressed to shower a ton of individual nominations on the cast, but on the whole, I think a lot of people are doing good work, and it's very much an ensemble film in the sense that scenes and musical numbers are succeeding based on characters interacting with each other. (What really irks me, though, is that stupid rule where you only get the nomination if you have your own title card -- how in god's name is it fair for the actors playing Little Red Riding Hood, Jack, Rapunzel, and Rapunzel's Prince to NOT get nominated here if the film does?)

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Re: SAG Predictions

Postby Mister Tee » Mon Dec 08, 2014 9:24 pm

Word floating around says Selma wasn't widely screened/available in screeners for the nominating committee. (Take this with that proverbial grain of salt: similar word said the LA critics were teeming with voters who didn't like Ida) It's hard to imagine SAG leaving off so best picture-centric a film, and maybe they'll plug it into ensemble on spec (like they did American Hustle last year, even while omitting most of its actors). But it's possible it underperforms in a way that looks bad but is easily corrected by AMPAS.

SAG is not the place to bank on a surprise or late-breaking candidate...they generally stick to the pre-arrranged script, clinging to ultimately-failed hopefuls like Crowe in Cinderella Man, DiCaprio & Hammer in J. Edgar, Bruhl & Thompson last year. So I'm with BJ, that Duvall is more likely in his category than Cooper or Spall are in theirs. But Oscar nominations could differ significantly -- American Sniper and a Most Violent Year, for two, will have had far broader exposure by then.

BJ/Magilla: You're probably right about Ensemble going with those five -- after Nine, who could bet against Into the Woods? I desperately want to wedge Gone Girl or Grand Budapest Hotel in there somehow. But SAG is frequently the most disappointing of the guilds -- even their surprises tend to be disheartening (Demian Bichir).

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Re: SAG Predictions

Postby Sabin » Mon Dec 08, 2014 2:42 pm

I'm convinced.
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Re: SAG Predictions

Postby flipp525 » Mon Dec 08, 2014 2:30 pm

I feel like it's unwise to bet against Swank getting a place here. She managed to eek out a rather unexpected nod for Conviction seemingly out of nowhere a couple years ago. And, let's face it, her M.O. is that when she's good, she's really good (as seems to be the critical consensus for her performance in The Homesman.)
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Re: SAG Predictions

Postby Sabin » Mon Dec 08, 2014 2:16 pm

Best Ensemble
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
I'm going with TGBH which boasts a massive cast mainly because the screener went out ages ago and I'm reasonably sure everyone has had the chance to see it by now whereas with Into the Woods or Foxcatcher we can't know that.

Best Actor
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Oscar Isaac, A Most Violent Year
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Steve Carell is the spoiler here. My hunch about Oscar Isaac is he should have been nominated last year, my misgivings aren't likely to be anybody else's, and the screener went out.

Best Actress
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Hillary Swank, The Homesman
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Best Supporting Actor
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffallo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
The one I'm last sure of is Mark Ruffalo, but he's probably safe.

Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Last edited by Sabin on Mon Dec 08, 2014 2:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: SAG Predictions

Postby The Original BJ » Mon Dec 08, 2014 1:39 pm

I'm going to use the precedent of the past couple years -- where a lot of the year-end releases that would later show up at the Oscars (Amour/Django Unchained, American Hustle/The Wolf of Wall Street) just didn't get much traction here.

ACTOR
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Guessing most of the still-unreleased candidates just haven't had enough time to build support here.

ACTRESS
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Shailene Woodley, The Fault in Our Stars

Guessing Woodley, because the tinier candidates seem less likely to break through with this group, and really, who the hell knows?

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

If Duvall gets in anywhere, it's gotta be here, right?

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

I'm fully prepared to get several of these wrong, those last couple spots seem like they could go in half a dozen different directions.

ENSEMBLE
Birdman
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Into the Woods
Selma

I'm with Magilla -- these seem like the safest bets.

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Re: SAG Predictions

Postby Greg » Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:15 am

If, as I mentioned in another thread, Selma really starts to take off with the guild awards, I could see Tom Wilkinson replacing either Duvall or Ruffalo and Carmen Ejogo replacing either Chastain or Dern.
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SAG Predictions

Postby Big Magilla » Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:43 am

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

I see these as the probable nominees with Carell the most vulnerable, but unless there's a last minute surge for either Oscar Isaac (A Most Violent Year) or Jake Gyllenhaal (NIghtcrawler), I don't see that changing.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Hilary Swank, The Homesman
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

I see Swank as the only one in doubt here, but unless they ignore Disney and consider Meryl Streep lead in Into the Woods, I don't know who else they would throw in here. Marion Cotilliard may get some votes for The Immigrant based on its Netflix streaming, but I doubt many SAG members have seen her more acclaimed performance in Two Days, One Night.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Edward Norton, Birdman
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

SAG likes to throw in a surprise here and there so maybe this most likely lineup will be the place to do it. Ther are certainly enough possible contenders in this category, but these are the ones I see as most likely.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman

This is a stronger than usual field. I wouldn't be surprised to see either Rene Russo (Nightcrawler) or Tilda Swinton (Snowpiercer) break through. Swinton, like Cotillard in lead, could be a threat based on her film's Netflix streaming.

Best Ensemble
Birdman
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Into the Woods
Selma

I think we could see The Theory of Everything or Unbroken here, but I don't know what either of them would replace.
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