GG Thread: General

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Re: GG Thread: General

Postby ITALIANO » Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:09 pm

mlrg wrote:
As we stand, I consider The Martian as the frontrunner for Best Picture. Even if it could be considered too light it is also epic, full of gorgeous images, with an heroic and uplifting story, the exact same description you give to The Revenant. Add that to the fact that Ridley Scott has never won and eventually he “has” to win someday, you have your winner.



It could certainly happen. My only doubts are due to the genre The Martian belongs to (The Revenant, at least, is set in the 19th century, and is based - as far as I know - on a true story) and to the fact that, as a movie, it takes itself quite lightly (no, it's not a comedy like they said at the Globes, but despite the situation it deals with, its approach isn't a totally serious, dramatic one. It's not Gravity - and I like that. But this could be a problem).

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Re: GG Thread: General

Postby mlrg » Tue Jan 12, 2016 10:46 am

flipp525 wrote:I certainly didn't find The Revenant to be "uplifting."


I haven't seen it yet. I was using Italiano's descrition and he was suposing that it might be uplifting. But I'm sure you got the point.

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Re: GG Thread: General

Postby flipp525 » Tue Jan 12, 2016 10:44 am

I certainly didn't find The Revenant to be "uplifting."
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Re: GG Thread: General

Postby mlrg » Tue Jan 12, 2016 9:57 am

ITALIANO wrote:For Best Picture and Best Director, my big problem is that I haven't seen most of the possible nominees yet - including the once-favorite, but now not so strong anymore, Spotlight. I know one thing though. On paper - I haven't seen it - The Revenant looks like a possible Best Picture winner, let's face it. Considered from here, it sounds epic, full of gorgeous images, with a heroic (and, I guess, uplifting) story of survival at its centre, plus it will get Best Actor and maybe something else, etc. There are two reasons why I can imagine that it won't win - it's directed by the same man who made last year's Best Picture (and this is important, but maybe not crucial) and, let me say it, most on this board don't like it. I wonder - I try not to read reviews till I see a movie - if this board's reaction to The Revenant mirrors a more general one, or it's just us. Next week it opens in Italy so I will see for myself.

Because otherwise, even in an era where Gravity wins seven Oscars and Mad Max Fury Road is considered by some to be a masterpiece, The Martian - pleasant to watch as it is - seems really a bit too "light" to get Best Picture. Yet, it's not like even lighter, and certainly more commercial, movies haven't got it in the past. Plus, Ridley Scott IS - deservedly or not, you judge - the kind of director who, according to many (and, I'm sure, many in the Academy too), SHOULD have an Oscar. This, of course, could mean that a Picture/Director split - like so often in recent years - could happen again (and in this case Picture could go to Spotlight or The Revenant or anything else) - but also that it's The Martian's year. Anyway, it's certainly too soon to say.


The Revenant would seem a Best Picture winner but winning Best Picture (and director) from the HFPA looks like a make-up win for Iñarritu for losing last year. If he hadn’t win last year at the Oscars my bet, at this stage, would be that The Revenant was the favorite to win this year (on the other hand, records are meant to be broker, so you never know).

As we stand, I consider The Martian as the frontrunner for Best Picture. Even if it could be considered too light it is also epic, full of gorgeous images, with an heroic and uplifting story, the exact same description you give to The Revenant. Add that to the fact that Ridley Scott has never won and eventually he “has” to win someday, you have your winner. It’s a very similar narrative compared to Scorsese when he won for The Departed (and was also against a best picture nominee, and golden globe winner, that came from Iñarritu). The other putative winners (Sportlight, The Big Short) simply don’t look like best picture winners in my opinion.

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Re: GG Thread: General

Postby ITALIANO » Tue Jan 12, 2016 9:06 am

This must have been the first time in my life that I watched the whole Globes show live - rather than just the beginning and then the rest the following day (it starts at 2 am in Italy, and all those tv prizes don't mean anything to me). But this year it all seems so unpredictable - and the Winslet win confirmed this - so I stayed up. I wasn't disappointed - it WAS unpredictable and, in some ways, it still is. (Though of course this doesn't mean that it will stay unpredictable till Oscar night).

What do we know for sure? Ok, Leonardo Di Caprio will finally get his Oscar. He had already won twice here, and obviously it's not like they didn't like Steve Jobs, still they picked him over Fassbender. The Di Caprio-must-get-an-Oscar narrative started on the net, but now it has trascended it and it has become real, tangible. So real and so tangible that other awards may come to him from other groups only because they don't want to miss what will be known in the future as Leonardo Di Caprio's Oscar winning role. Sad, I know - but this is the way it works, and the only positive aspect in all this story is that it doesn't seem that his win will mean the defeat of a truly great performance (except maybe Fassbender's - I haven't seen his movie - but he will of course have other opportunities soon).

Brie Larson - this was the first time I saw her - is young, pretty, AMERICAN, not untalented from what I read on this board, and even plays a mother. It's not as solid as Di Caprio's maybe - but the Oscar seems to be hers.

Beyond this, it's still difficult to say. Those who have seen Bridge of Spies know two things: Mark Rylance is good in it, but it's not the kind of role which makes one 100% sure that he will win Best Supporting Actor: not showy enough - though he certainly has one or two "Oscar-clip" scenes; not dominant enough in the second half of his movie, etc. It's also true, of course, that he's not the typical Golden-Globe-winner kind of actor, and IF (we still can't be sure) Sylvester Stallone is Oscar-nominated, it's very possible that by the standards of the Academy a nomination for him is enough. In Rylance's case the BAFTA and I'd say especially the SAG can tell us more about his chances, though even if he wins both the possibility of a surprise can't be ignorred.

Best Supporting Actress is even more chaotic, for reasons that we know well. It will become slightly clearer in two days - but the way this race is evolving is so unique that I'm not sure that by January, 28th I'd bet my house on anyone. Alicia Vikander - especially if she's nominated twice - would still be the favorite, but only because the Academy has (almost always, not always) tended to give one award to actors who have got two nods in the same year. Still... I haven't seen The Danish Girl, but it's obvious that it's not a movie anyone seems to love. And I HAVE seen Ex-Machina, which is a nice little effort but not the kind of movie - and hers performance in it not the kind of performance - that one outright associates with the Oscars. Definitely not. It can happen, don't get me wrong, but even if she wins all the awards in the world (and I guess that she will get at least one between the SAG and the BAFTA), a Marcia-Gay-Harden-kind of outcome can always happen. Not Kate Winslet, I know that she won't repeat at the Oscars, but who knows... Carol may be hated, but it could win something, couldn't it? (Though I know that there are problems there too). Anyway, in this case it really depends on the nominees - and where they are placed, and for which movie. The day after tomorrow we'll understand more.

For Best Picture and Best Director, my big problem is that I haven't seen most of the possible nominees yet - including the once-favorite, but now not so strong anymore, Spotlight. I know one thing though. On paper - I haven't seen it - The Revenant looks like a possible Best Picture winner, let's face it. Considered from here, it sounds epic, full of gorgeous images, with a heroic (and, I guess, uplifting) story of survival at its centre, plus it will get Best Actor and maybe something else, etc. There are two reasons why I can imagine that it won't win - it's directed by the same man who made last year's Best Picture (and this is important, but maybe not crucial) and, let me say it, most on this board don't like it. I wonder - I try not to read reviews till I see a movie - if this board's reaction to The Revenant mirrors a more general one, or it's just us. Next week it opens in Italy so I will see for myself.

Because otherwise, even in an era where Gravity wins seven Oscars and Mad Max Fury Road is considered by some to be a masterpiece, The Martian - pleasant to watch as it is - seems really a bit too "light" to get Best Picture. Yet, it's not like even lighter, and certainly more commercial, movies haven't got it in the past. Plus, Ridley Scott IS - deservedly or not, you judge - the kind of director who, according to many (and, I'm sure, many in the Academy too), SHOULD have an Oscar. This, of course, could mean that a Picture/Director split - like so often in recent years - could happen again (and in this case Picture could go to Spotlight or The Revenant or anything else) - but also that it's The Martian's year. Anyway, it's certainly too soon to say.

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Re: GG Thread: General

Postby flipp525 » Mon Jan 11, 2016 3:41 pm

The book was really great. I think Emma Donoghue should also be more in the conversation for her adaptation.
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Re: GG Thread: General

Postby FilmFan720 » Mon Jan 11, 2016 9:50 am

dws1982 wrote:
Mister Tee wrote:Lots of folks think the Brie Larson win makes her equally favored for the Oscar, but I see it different. While Larson COULD sweep the TV precursors, I think a movie that's been seen by so few will have difficulty winning the populist SAG vote; I think Ronan is at least a decent bet to win there, and BAFTA as well, for reasons of European solidarity. So, I think Larson needed this win to stay strongly in the race.

For what it's worth, Room was one of the first screeners sent out; if I remember correctly all SAG voters got a copy pretty early in the game. I wouldn't rule her out there, especially if the Broadcasters take hold and make her seem like the frontrunner.


It is also a movie that would play just as well on a screener as a screening. Plus, don't discard how popular that book was in a lot of circles.
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Re: GG Thread: General

Postby dws1982 » Mon Jan 11, 2016 9:48 am

Mister Tee wrote:Lots of folks think the Brie Larson win makes her equally favored for the Oscar, but I see it different. While Larson COULD sweep the TV precursors, I think a movie that's been seen by so few will have difficulty winning the populist SAG vote; I think Ronan is at least a decent bet to win there, and BAFTA as well, for reasons of European solidarity. So, I think Larson needed this win to stay strongly in the race.

For what it's worth, Room was one of the first screeners sent out; if I remember correctly all SAG voters got a copy pretty early in the game. I wouldn't rule her out there, especially if the Broadcasters take hold and make her seem like the frontrunner.

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Re: GG Thread: General

Postby Big Magilla » Mon Jan 11, 2016 9:13 am

flipp525 wrote:
The Original BJ wrote:And am I the only one who didn't know that Michael Fassbender and Alicia Vikander were a couple?

From what I've heard, their relationship is only a "show-nance." He's actually currently sleeping with his Macbeth co-star, Marion Cotillard.

They were a couple and split up earlier this year. I didn't know they were back together until last night. With their hands all over one another, I doubt it's just a "show-mance".
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Re: GG Thread: General

Postby flipp525 » Mon Jan 11, 2016 8:39 am

The Original BJ wrote:And am I the only one who didn't know that Michael Fassbender and Alicia Vikander were a couple?

From what I've heard, their relationship is only a "show-nance." He's actually currently sleeping with his Macbeth co-star, Marion Cotillard.
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Re: GG Thread: General

Postby The Original BJ » Mon Jan 11, 2016 2:07 am

Mister Tee wrote:But one shouldn't jump to thinking the Oscar best picture race is now a Revenant/Martian face-off. Recall, last year their winners were Boyhood/Grand Budapest Hotel. And they've had pairings like Babel/Dreamgirls '06 and Atonement/Sweeey Todd '07 in the recent past. And as far as the films that got blanked here tonight -- unless my memory is failing me, The Hurt Locker got the same treatment in '09.


Yeah, the 2009 Globe winners were Avatar and, it took me a while to remember...The Hangover.

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Re: GG Thread: General

Postby criddic3 » Mon Jan 11, 2016 1:08 am

Yes, the worst part of Tarantino's speech was him saying "I am the one that got him this award." I mean, you can do that in so many better ways that it was cringe-worthy to say the least. I mean simply saying "I love the guy and that's why I chose to hire him" would have given him enough credit without it seeming crass.
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Re: GG Thread: General

Postby Mister Tee » Mon Jan 11, 2016 12:31 am

The show's always pretty ramshackle, but it seemed especially tacky this year. Gervais got off a couple of decent lines, but a number of duds as well, and that was in a fairly short opening bit. I thought Pitt/Gosling, Ferrera/Longoria and Jim Carrey were pretty funny.

In the predictions thread, I asked that the HFPA not dull-ify the season, and, for the first half especially, boy howdy did they listen to me! I won't comment much on the TV winners (some of which I guess run on platforms so obscure to me I wouldn't know how to watch them), but some of the film winners took what little consensus was emerging on the season and ripped it into tiny shreds.

Consider: coming into the evening, it seemed at least a solid bet that Spotlight and The Big Short would win the top prizes, and it was largely a matter of which one took screenplay home. Instead, both left empty-handed.

But one shouldn't jump to thinking the Oscar best picture race is now a Revenant/Martian face-off. Recall, last year their winners were Boyhood/Grand Budapest Hotel. And they've had pairings like Babel/Dreamgirls '06 and Atonement/Sweeey Todd '07 in the recent past. And as far as the films that got blanked here tonight -- unless my memory is failing me, The Hurt Locker got the same treatment in '09.

This is of course the second Innaritu film to win best drama at the Globes; the only contender of his that didn't win was the one that went on to win the best picture Oscar. When the directing award came along, I thought maybe that was make-up for last year, but, no, they apparently just really liked the film.

The big thing The Martian had going for it over The Big Short was the directing nomination, which I'll pay more attention to in future best comedy contests.

Odd how both winning films are mostly about a solitary guy stranded in remote territory. (With women barely in sight.)

It drives me a bit batty that Steve Jobs, despite no best picture nomination, won two of its three citations, but lost the one I wanted most. It appears the DiCaprio scenario is the one almost unstoppable one being set up. For sure the Broadcasters will pick him (because he's likely to win -- the circular reasoning mantra), and it's hard to imagine the vast SAG vote bypassing him. Only BAFTA can deliver him any kind of roadblock, but, seeing they have The Revenant nominated most everywhere, it's not that likely there, either.

Lots of folks think the Brie Larson win makes her equally favored for the Oscar, but I see it different. While Larson COULD sweep the TV precursors, I think a movie that's been seen by so few will have difficulty winning the populist SAG vote; I think Ronan is at least a decent bet to win there, and BAFTA as well, for reasons of European solidarity. So, I think Larson needed this win to stay strongly in the race.

Jennifer Lawrence was one of my lucky stabs in the predictions thread, and my reasoning was pretty simple: I just think she gave by far the most substantial performance in the category. Obviously it helps that she's a mega-star, but that doesn't make her undeserving.

I think someone said the other day that, even if Stallone were to win the Globe, it didn't mean he'd necessarily get nominated Thursday. The predictable ovation for him doesn't necessarily mean he'd become an Oscar favorite even if he's on the slate -- we're talking about someone missing from both SAG and BAFTA's list (Christoph Waltz '12 was also missing the former, but won the latter). This race simply isn't going to narrow down. The most significant aspect of tonight was probably that Mark Rylance DIDN'T win, meaning he can't turn into a juggernaut. (By the way, I believe it's 1975's Richard Benjamin who's the last supporting actor Globe winner not to get an Oscar nod.)

And supporting actress! I had my doubts that Ex Machina was a winning role, and I didn't think voters were going to automatically factor in the Danish Girl votes when considering this category -- that's why I took another of my lucky stabs, with Winslet. I don't see much chance of this race clarifying in subsequent match-ups, since we'll have Mara & Vikander in fraud form at SAG and BFCA, and yet a third variant (Vikander in Ex Machina/Mara in Carol) at BAFTA. And at this point, who the hell knows how AMPAS is going to set it up.

In the smaller categories: How annoying was it that Jamie Foxx flashed the card to the camera, so we all saw the winner a good 30 seconds before they read out the name? (And didn't Tarantino's speech, ostensible lauding Morricone, somehow seem narcissistic?) I thought most people hated the Smith song from Spectre? When was the last time the screenplay award went to a film not nominated in a best film category?

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Re: GG Thread: General

Postby The Original BJ » Sun Jan 10, 2016 11:59 pm

Up until the last envelope, I was mostly really enjoying the evening, mainly for how many pleasing curveballs the Golden Globes threw into the race in this increasingly all-over-the-place season.

And the surprises started right off the bat, with Kate Winslet's victory, which seemed to go against all expectations, followed later in the show by Aaron Sorkin's upset. I let out a cheer for both wins, as I thought they were the clear standouts in each category, and for a while even hoped that Fassbender might surprise in his race as well. They also confirmed something I've thought all season, that people have really underestimated Steve Jobs simply based on the low box office performance; it's not so under-the-radar a movie that awards voters aren't watching it, and once they do, the standout elements are clearly to their liking. I still expect the key candidates (Fassbender/Winslet/Sorkin) to place with Oscar, and still won't totally rule out the movie as a possibility for a Best Picture nomination.

As for the Picture/Director races, the two movies widely thought to be leading the pack -- Spotlight and The Big Short -- both went home empty-handed when most of us thought multiple prizes were well within reach for both. Big Short seemed like it was really peaking at the right time to do well here, but I'd say Spotlight, as the presumed Oscar frontrunner, took an even bigger hit. It's hard to hold the mantle of assumed leader when you just aren't winning things. Even if it had still managed to win Best Picture (after losing Screenplay), it would have felt like a pretty tenuous victory for a movie already perceived as a soft leader.

None of this is to say that I think The Revenant suddenly moved into that position. I sort of understood its Director win -- this was a place Alejandro didn't win last year, so you could easily view that prize as a cumulative award, as well as honor for his movie's obvious visual wow. But I remain incredibly dubious about his ability to win back-to-back Picture/Director Oscars, especially for such a polarizing movie. (And please, can we just STOP hearing about how difficult it was to shoot this thing? My grouchy response to that is -- sounds like it was almost as difficult as it was for me to watch!)

Putting aside the fact that Best Picture seems so muddled, it's really worth noting how difficult it seems to find a logical Director candidate. (Or in fact, maybe that's WHY Best Picture seems so muddled.) McCarthy's work seems pretty unflashy, G. Iñárritu just won three Oscars, Haynes seems far too arty, Miller seems like an insane choice, McKay still has his totally unimpressive prior resume...you really wonder if it's-time-for-Ridley-Scott won't present itself as an appealing narrative, part of the reason I bet on him to win this evening. If that narrative takes hold, The Martian could be like The Departed, a film not initially thought of us Oscar-bait carried along for the top prize out of sheer momentum for the veteran helmer behind it.

Brie Larson's win was probably my favorite of the night, partly because I loved her performance, but also because I think she definitely inched into frontrunner position after this win. (I was actually surprised so many bet on Ronan, given that Brooklyn only scored the one nomination -- if the foreign/immigrant angle was going to hold that much sway, wouldn't the movie have done a lot better with the Globes overall?)

On the Comedy Actress side, a third victory in four years for Jennifer Lawrence (this decade's Renée Zellweger!) made her a bit anticlimactic a winner, though as a Joy fan, I was happy to see the movie have a positive moment this season. I think her Oscar chances really rest on what voters do with the fraudsters -- if neither end up placing in Best Actress, I'd rate Lawrence a pretty good prospect to get one of those two open spots.

Stallone seemed a logical choice here, simply given the big star factor, but I was surprised by just how enthusiastic an ovation he received. I haven't much changed my attitude on his Oscar prospects -- if he's a nominee, I still consider him a good possibility to win. But I also think, like Sabin, there's a good chance his SAG outcome repeats and he doesn't even get the nomination, simply because it seems like anyone could get boxed out of that race. It's also pleasing to note that SAG will HAVE to have a different winner, making this Oscar race still very much anybody's game.

It seems hard to imagine Winslet winning the Supporting Actress Oscar -- given how many years she's gone without a nomination, at least by her standards, her presumed citation would almost amount to a "welcome back" nod, which I assume many will feel is enough. But at the same time, she is the only person I feel confident saying will DEFINITELY get an Oscar nomination in this category, and if that race lacks Mara/Vikander, maybe she would end up the consensus choice as she was here.

Son of Saul and Inside Out continue to establish fairly strong leads in their respective categories.

Quentin Tarantino's speech -- self-aggrandizing even when he's accepting someone else's trophy -- was clearly an attempt to say that Morricone has never won an Oscar without saying it. (It's not quite fair to say he's never won an American film award, when this was his third Globe.)

I don't watch enough TV to have much opinion on the TV winners, but I will say that it was nice Jon Hamm got to make this speech -- his first Globe came the year the ceremony was nixed due to the WGA strike.

In non-award related comments, if I were David O. Russell's wife, I'd be pretty creeped out by his relationship with Jennifer Lawrence at this point. And am I the only one who didn't know that Michael Fassbender and Alicia Vikander were a couple?

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Re: GG Thread: General

Postby Snick's Guy » Sun Jan 10, 2016 11:05 pm

What a boring show!! Ricky won't be back next year.


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