DGA Nominations

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The Original BJ
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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby The Original BJ » Tue Jan 12, 2016 8:41 pm

Mister Tee wrote:3) Harvey Weinstein can seem weakened in the early stages, but often rallies on nominations day.


And, to go back further, The Reader was a pretty big nomination day coup for Harvey, after it had blanked across the board with the Guilds. (Though, like Carol, it had a solid Globe/BAFTA showing.)

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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby Mister Tee » Tue Jan 12, 2016 8:28 pm

The Original BJ wrote:A year ago I couldn't fathom myself making such a statement, but I think I'm rooting for Adam McKay to win the DGA this year?

I'm right behind you.

People ALWAYS over-react to the DGA list, expecting AMPAS to match 5-for-5. As I said earlier, though it got completely lost in the Affleck/Bigelow imbroglio, I recall people here believing Tom Hooper's Les Miz nod at DGA was going to get him Academy-cited.

This list isn't just down the middle -- it's down the middle with guy movies. When a Mad Max sequel is your big female representative, it's hard not to feel the testosterone is flowing pretty heavy. If Carol, Room and Brooklyn are all missing from the best picture list, in what seemed a banner year for women-centered films, there's an easy-to-write #OscarsSoMale article that will give the Academy headaches.

But there are reasons to believe those three films -- Carol especially -- will do better Thursday than they did today. 1) Recent Academy invitee lists have made clear efforts to increase female membership (along with minority membership), something the Guilds haven't done. 2) Let's not forget Carol's dominant presence at BAFTA. There's some significant overlap in membership between BAFTA and AMPAS, and the Brit contingent has been thought to help other films in the past (like Atonement, which also did poorly at the Guilds, but got onto the best picture list at the Academy). 3) Harvey Weinstein can seem weakened in the early stages, but often rallies on nominations day. In 2012, he got Silver Linings Playbook (a DGA omittee) nomination in the top six categories -- as well as Django for best picture, and all three uncertain actors from The Master. A year later (less admirably) he got Philomena a best picture slot, and the much-doubted Streep onto the best actress slate. And last year (again, not to his credit), he got the wobbly Morten Tyldum into best director (though this time with DGA help). Let's not draw conclusions before we've seen his final handiwork.

In the 80-year history of the NY Film Critics Award, only two best picture winners have failed to be nominated for either best picture or best director at the Oscars: Topsy Turvy and Far from Heaven. They couldn't do it to Haynes twice; could they?

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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby Okri » Tue Jan 12, 2016 8:01 pm

Yeah, using the oscar-adjacent category for a minute, if Son of Saul was given a proper release (it's been in four theatres FOR A MONTH!!!!!! What's the frickin' point of that???) I think Nemes would be a solid second tier possibility, and not a darkhorse. I don't understand Sony Classics at all.

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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby The Original BJ » Tue Jan 12, 2016 6:53 pm

This is only Oscar-adjacent, but it's at least worth noting that the DGA's new Best First Feature lineup is pretty interesting -- two foreign language films, two genre pictures, and a woman-centric film directed by a woman.

Putting some of my favored exclusions aside (especially Haynes), I don't think the main lineup is so terrible (even a non-Mad Max fan like myself can at least acknowledge it's impressively mounted), but it's far more limited in terms of the kinds of movies it represents. But, as Mister Tee said, they've been pretty down-the-middle as of late, and I have to confess some surprise that so many on the Internet seem to think Oscar will just Xerox this list, when to do so would be shockingly out of character for the Academy, even in a more settled year.

A year ago I couldn't fathom myself making such a statement, but I think I'm rooting for Adam McKay to win the DGA this year?

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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby OscarGuy » Tue Jan 12, 2016 4:36 pm

As I pointed out in my site post on the DGA nominations (http://www.cinemasight.com/precursor-68th-directors-guild-nominations-2015/), in the last 4 years, the DGA has matched Best Director 4/5 in all but one year, that one year it was 2/5.

What's more telling is that since the expansion to ten in 2009, only one film has failed to translate a DGA nomination into a Best Picture nomination: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.
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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby CalWilliam » Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:39 pm

flipp525 wrote:
CalWilliam wrote:I haven't seen The Revenant yet, but as far as I'm concerned, the only worthy nominee here is Tom McCarthy. This is very sad. Carol absent in both DGA & PGA says it all about this year's race. Let's see if Oscars join the mediocrity too.

There was nothing mediocre about McKay's direction of The Big Short. In fact, his handling of it seemed to me the most inventive, the way he customized the direction in order to tell a particularly esoteric, at times abstract, story. And tell it well. Spotlight was competently directed, but I wouldn't say there was anything noteworthy about it.

Haynes is a glaring omission here, but I've always thought that the Academy would revive Carol on Thursday morning.


It's a matter of point of view. I don't like The Big Short, but I understand your point. I think McCarthy provided Spotlight with an organic sense throughout the film, and the ensemble is great because of his directing, I'm sure. It's a very solid movie.
Yes, Haynes will probably make the cut on Thursday, but what's regrettable is the fact that Carol doesn't stand the slightest chance of prevailing anymore. Miller nominated is deplorable, and Scott for The Martian, well, that's a mediocre citation. He just did his job. That film is no more than watchable.
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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby flipp525 » Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:27 pm

CalWilliam wrote:I haven't seen The Revenant yet, but as far as I'm concerned, the only worthy nominee here is Tom McCarthy. This is very sad. Carol absent in both DGA & PGA says it all about this year's race. Let's see if Oscars join the mediocrity too.

There was nothing mediocre about McKay's direction of The Big Short. In fact, his handling of it seemed to me the most inventive, the way he customized the direction in order to tell a particularly esoteric, at times abstract, story. And tell it well. Spotlight was competently directed, but I wouldn't say there was anything noteworthy about it.

Haynes is a glaring omission here, but I've always thought that the Academy would revive Carol on Thursday morning.
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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby CalWilliam » Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:21 pm

I haven't seen The Revenant yet, but as far as I'm concerned, the only worthy nominee here is Tom McCarthy. This is very sad. Carol absent in both DGA & PGA says it all about this year's race. Let's see if Oscars join the mediocrity too.
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Re: DGA Nominations

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Jan 12, 2016 1:39 pm

DGA nominees for First-Time Feature Director
FERNANDO COIMBRA - A Wolf at the Door
JOEL EDGERTON - The Gift
ALEX GARLAND - Ex Machina
MARIELLE HELLER - The Diary of a Teenage Girl
LÁSZLÓ NEMES - Son of Saul
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Re: DGA Predictions

Postby Mister Tee » Tue Jan 12, 2016 1:39 pm

And, certainly not to devalue BJ's coup, but hasn't the DGA been fairly down the middle of late? I can't recall their last wild stab that presaged Oscar reality. Generally they go with a consensus five, including some (Dreamgirls/Dark Knight/Inception/Captain Phillips) that end up missing best director (and best film, back in the years of five). They caught none of the impending chaos of 2012 -- because of the Affleck/Bigelow snubs, it was barely noticed they'd gone with Les Miz, as well. Once in a great while you'll get a 2009, where the consensus five get all the Academy directing spots. But this doesn't feel like that sort of year.

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Re: DGA Predictions

Postby Mister Tee » Tue Jan 12, 2016 1:27 pm

So, I'd say all these films are good to go in best picture (which i thought prior to today, as well), but i'm not believing in a 5/5 match in directing, and in fact wouldn't be surprised by a 3/5. Innaritu seems the safest, but I could see the directors branch skipping Big Short or Spotlight for insufficent auteurness, or Mad Max or Martian for insufficient seriousness. Haynes, Abrahamson or Nemes feel like the most likely directors' branch sort of edgy substitutions.

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Re: DGA Predictions

Postby Sabin » Tue Jan 12, 2016 1:21 pm

Couldn't something else you predicted have been right?
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Re: DGA Predictions

Postby The Original BJ » Tue Jan 12, 2016 1:18 pm

Literally the first day all season where I've thought -- that went even close to how I expected it would.

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Re: DGA Predictions

Postby Mister Tee » Tue Jan 12, 2016 1:08 pm

And BJ nails it.

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Re: DGA Predictions

Postby FilmFan720 » Tue Jan 12, 2016 8:57 am

Alejandro G Inarritu, The Revenant
Thomas McCarthy, Spotlight
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian

Everyone seems to feel like it is these five, Todd Haynes and Steven Spielberg in the running. With this year, couldn't you see someone coming out of the blue? But who?

My go big or go home prediction: Danny Boyle or F. Gary Gray replaces Thomas McCarthy
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