Final Predictions

For the films of 2015
User avatar
OscarGuy
Site Admin
Posts: 12546
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:22 am
Location: Springfield, MO
Contact:

Re: Final Predictions

Postby OscarGuy » Thu Jan 14, 2016 8:45 pm

The idea that Argo won because Affleck was snubbed is the interpretation I'm trying to combat. It won the Critics Choice award the NIGHT it was snubbed. It had already won Best Picture from the OFCS. What we began to see before the snub was that larger, more diverse groups (OFCS and BFCA are the two largest critics organizations) were leaning towards Argo. Argo was also the third film in the Emergence of Ben Affleck as a Major Filmmaker narrative, which put him on a strong track towards Oscar recognition.

Ridley Scott, as has been proven numerous times, just can't get love from the Academy. I don't think there will be a narrative of "you didn't nominate him, so screw you." If he were truly overdue for an Oscar, he'd have been nominated by the directors branch. However, coming off a string of five commercial and/or critical flops (Exodus, Counselor, Prometheus, Robin Hood, Body of Lies), I don't think they really feel like he's due for anything, especially when Prometheus was the best received of these).
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin

Bog
Assistant
Posts: 825
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:39 am
Location: United States

Re: Final Predictions

Postby Bog » Thu Jan 14, 2016 7:25 pm

OscarGuy wrote:Sorry, Bog, but you've bought an incorrect interpretation of the Argo win. It was building up steam well before the Academy's Best Director snub.


I'd argue that's exactly what's going on here, no? Scott has a Golden Globe in hand (no matter the category) and a DGA nom. I think it might be building around the exact same pace personally...now extremely fresh off a win he gets Oscar snubbed. Six Oscar noms today including the only possible Leo foil which I'm fairly certain equals Argo's total. They've shown they're definitely not averse to awarding his (mediocre) films best picture...and I mean I enjoyed Gone Baby Gone and The Town well enough, but the "outrage" MUST be greater for this man than it was for Affleck.

Finally, if I've "bought an incorrect interpretation" then we're saying Argo was seen by voters as a better choice than Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty. My argument there is there isn't a film in the ballpark of that caliber on this slate to encourage a voter to avoid The Martian (considering the extraneous factors of course).

CalWilliam
Temp
Posts: 259
Joined: Thu Sep 18, 2014 5:35 pm
Location: Principality of Asturias, Spain

Re: Final Predictions

Postby CalWilliam » Thu Jan 14, 2016 9:53 am

Definitely horrible, horrible nominations. Carol left out in Picture and Director, George Miller nominated, and both Mara and Vikander in Supporting.
"Rage, rage against the dying of the light". - Dylan Thomas

Heksagon
Adjunct
Posts: 1140
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 10:39 pm
Location: Helsinki, Finland

Re: Final Predictions

Postby Heksagon » Thu Jan 14, 2016 9:33 am

Are you suggesting that acting with DiCaprio makes other actors look good? That could be the case :mrgreen:

mlrg
Adjunct
Posts: 1111
Joined: Tue Dec 07, 2004 11:19 am
Location: Lisbon, Portugal

Re: Final Predictions

Postby mlrg » Thu Jan 14, 2016 9:25 am

Heksagon wrote:Credit to those who got the surprises right: Precious Doll was the only one who predicted Tom Hardy, and ksrymy was the only one who predicted Lenny Abrahamson.

Edit: Criddic is the only one who got Film Editing nomination for Star Wars and Mister Tee was the only one who got Production Design for The Revenant.

No one got the "Manta Ray" song from Racing Extinction, or Costume Design for The Revenant. I think every other feature film nomination was predicted at least by someone.


Never understimate the power of Leonardo di Caprio to bring a best supporting actor co-tail nomination whenever his nominated

User avatar
OscarGuy
Site Admin
Posts: 12546
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:22 am
Location: Springfield, MO
Contact:

Re: Final Predictions

Postby OscarGuy » Thu Jan 14, 2016 9:24 am

Sorry, Bog, but you've bought an incorrect interpretation of the Argo win. It was building up steam well before the Academy's Best Director snub.
Wesley Lovell

"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin

Reza
Tenured Laureate
Posts: 8146
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 11:14 am
Location: Islamabad, Pakistan

Re: Final Predictions

Postby Reza » Thu Jan 14, 2016 9:17 am

It's going to be a sweep for The Revenant at the Oscars.

The Original BJ
Emeritus
Posts: 4202
Joined: Mon Apr 28, 2003 8:49 pm

Re: Final Predictions

Postby The Original BJ » Thu Jan 14, 2016 9:10 am

Remember when we thought this year was going to be fun?

Heksagon
Adjunct
Posts: 1140
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 10:39 pm
Location: Helsinki, Finland

Re: Final Predictions

Postby Heksagon » Thu Jan 14, 2016 9:09 am

Credit to those who got the surprises right: Precious Doll was the only one who predicted Tom Hardy, and ksrymy was the only one who predicted Lenny Abrahamson.

Edit: Criddic was the only one who got Film Editing nomination for Star Wars and Mister Tee was the only one who got Production Design for The Revenant.

No one got the "Manta Ray" song from Racing Extinction, or Costume Design for The Revenant. I think every other feature film nomination was predicted at least by someone.
Last edited by Heksagon on Thu Jan 14, 2016 9:23 am, edited 3 times in total.

Bog
Assistant
Posts: 825
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:39 am
Location: United States

Re: Final Predictions

Postby Bog » Thu Jan 14, 2016 9:03 am

With no one named really any kind of slam dunk...any chance we see an Affleck-esque push for Ridley Scott to win as producer in the Best Pic category??

Is he the producer even.. I'm just assuming? I can see a McCarthy or even Miller occupying the Ang Lee spot.

User avatar
flipp525
Laureate
Posts: 5830
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2003 7:44 am

Re: Final Predictions

Postby flipp525 » Thu Jan 14, 2016 8:55 am

That's what I get for trying to be bold. Category fraud was totally bought and purchased by everyone.
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell

Heksagon
Adjunct
Posts: 1140
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 10:39 pm
Location: Helsinki, Finland

Re: Final Predictions

Postby Heksagon » Thu Jan 14, 2016 8:45 am

Well, I did terribly.

User avatar
Precious Doll
Tenured
Posts: 3470
Joined: Mon Jan 13, 2003 2:20 am
Location: Sydney
Contact:

Re: Final Predictions

Postby Precious Doll » Thu Jan 14, 2016 12:29 am

No idea but I'll give it a try

Picture

1. Spotlight (US)
2. The Martian (US)
3. The Revenant (US)
4. Mad Max: Fury Road (US)
5. Carol (US)
6. The Big Short (US)
7. Inside Out (US)
8. Brooklyn (UK)
9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (US)
10. Straight Outta Compton (US)

Director

Todd Haynes, Carol
Alejandro Gonzales Inaritu, The Revenant
Thomas McCarthy, Spotlight
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian

Actor

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael B. Jordan, Creed
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Actress

Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Rooney Mara, Carol
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Supporting Actor

Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Supporting Actress

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Mya Taylor, Tangerine
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Foreign Language Film

Labyrinth of Lies (Germany)
Mustang (France)
Son of Saul (Hungary)
Theeb (Jordan)
A War (Denmark)

Animated Film

The Good Dinosaur (US)
Inside Out (US)
The Peanuts Movie (US)
Shaun of the Sheep (UK)
When Marnie Was There (Japan)
"I have no interest in all of that. I find that all tabloid stupidity" Woody Allen, The Guardian, 2014, in response to his adopted daughter's allegations.

Okri
Tenured
Posts: 2609
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:28 pm
Location: Edmonton, AB

Re: Final Predictions

Postby Okri » Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:59 pm

Picture
1. Spotlight
2. The Martian
3. The Big Short
4. Brooklyn
5. Room
6. The Revenant
7. Carol
---I think there will be seven, though nine or ten makes more sense---
8. Bridge of Spies
9. Mad Max: Fury Road
10. Steve Jobs


Director
Todd Haynes, Carol
Alejandro Gonzales Inaritu, The Revenant
Thomas McCarthy, Spotlight
Adam McKay, The Big Short
Ridley Scott, The Martian

Actor in a Lead Role
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Actress in a Lead Role
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Actress in a Supporting Role
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Son of Saul
Spotlight

Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
Room
Steve Jobs

Film Editing
The Big Short
The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight

Cinematography
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario
Son of Saul

Production Design
Bridge of Spies
Cinderella
Crimson Peak
The Danish Girl
The Martian

Costume Design
Brooklyn
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Far from the Madding Crowd

Sound Editing
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Sound Mixing
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Straight out of Compton


Makeup & Hair
Mad Max: Fury Road
Mr. Holmes
The 100 Years Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared

Visual Effects
Ex Machina
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Original Score
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Danish Girl
The Good Dinosaur
Sicario

Original Song
“Pray 4 My City,” Chi-raq
“See You Again,” Furious 7
“I’ll See You in My Dreams,” I’ll See You in My Dreams
“Cold One,” Ricki and the Flash
“Simple Song #,” Youth

Documentary Feature
Amy
The Look of Silence
We Come as Friends
What Happened, Miss Simone
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

Documentary Short
50 Feet From Syria
Body Team 12
Chau, Beyond the Lines
My Enemy, My Brother
Starting Point

Animated Feature
Boy and the World
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie was There

Animated Short
Carface
If I Was God...
My Home
We Can't Live Without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow

Live-Action Short
Bis Gleich (Till Then)
Day One
Shok
Stutterer
Winter Light

Foreign-Language Feature
The Fencer
Labyrinth of Lies
Mustang
Son of Saul
A War

Mister Tee
Laureate
Posts: 6499
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 2:57 pm
Location: NYC
Contact:

Re: Final Predictions

Postby Mister Tee » Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:28 pm

All right, here we go. I give myself a lot more alternates than you guys. And I don't even try with docs/foreigns/shorts.

1. Best Film

The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Alt.: Inside Out
Straight Outta Compton

2. Best Actor

Steve Carell (The Big Short)
Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)
Matt Damon (The Martian)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
Alt.: Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)
Johnny Depp (Black Mass)
Paul Dano (Love and Mercy)

3. Best Actress

Cate Blanchett (Carol)
Brie Larson (Room)
Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)
Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
Alt.: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Lily Tomlin (Grandma)

4. Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale (The Big Short)
Paul Dano (Love and Mercy)
Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)
Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
Jacob Tremblay (Room)
Alt.: Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
Michael Keaton (Spotlight)
Benicio Del Toro (Sicario)

5. Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)
Helen Mirren (Trumbo)
Rooney Mara (Carol)
Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
Alt.: Jane Fonda (Youth)
Joan Allen (Room)
Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina)

6. Best Director

Todd Haynes (Carol)
Alejandro G. Innaritu (The Revenant)
Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
Adam McKay (The Big Short)
Ridley Scott (The Martian)
Alt. George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
Lenny Abrahamson (Room)
Laszlo Nemes (Son of Saul)

7. Best Adapted Screenplay

The Big Short (Adam McKay and Charles Randolph)
Brooklyn (Nick Hornby)
Carol (Phyllis Nagy)
Room (Emma Donoghue)
Steve Jobs (Aaron Sorkin)
Alt.: The Martian (Drew Goddard)
Anomalisa (Charlie Kaufman)


8. Best Original Screenplay

Bridge of Spies (Matthew Charman, Ethan & Joel Coen)
Ex Machina (Alex Garland)
Inside Out (Pete Docter & Meg LeFauve)
Sicario (Taylor Sheridan)
Spotlight (Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer)
Alt.: Son of Saul (Laszlo Nemes)
Straight Outta Compton (Jonathan Herman and Andrea Berloff)
The Hateful Eight (Quentin Tarantino)

9. Best Song

See You Again (Furious 7)
Simple Song # 3 (Youth)
So Long (Concussion)
Til It Happens To You (The Hunting Ground)
Writing's On The Wall (Spectre)
Alt.: Cold One (Ricki and the Flash)
Flashlight (Pitch Perfect 2)
I'll See You In My Dreams (I'll See You in My Dreams)

10. Best Cinematography

Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario
Alt.: Bridge of Spies
Son of Saul

11. Best Costume Design

Brooklyn
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Far from the Madding Crowd
Alt.: Suffragette
Mad Max: Fury Road
Crimson Peak

12. Best Production Design

Brooklyn
Crimson Peak
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Alt.: Carol
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl

13. Best Sound Mixing

The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Alt.: Sicario
Love and Mercy
Straight Outta Compton

14. Best Film Editing

The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Spotlight
Alt.: Bridge of Spies
Steve Jobs

15. Best Music Score

Carol
The Danish Girl
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Alt.: Brooklyn
Bridge of Spies
Inside Out

16. Best Visual Effects

Ex Machina
Jurassic World
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Walk
Alt.: Mad Max: Fury Road
The Avengers: Age of Ultron

17. Best Sound Editing

The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Alt.: Inside Out

18. Best Make-up

Mad Max: Fury Road
Mr. Holmes
The Revenant
Alt.: Black Mass
The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared

19. Best Animated Feature

Anomalisa
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There
Alt.: Kahlil Gibran’s The Prophet
Minions


Return to “88th Predictions and Precursors”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest