Final Predictions

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Sabin
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Re: Final Predictions

Postby Sabin » Wed Jan 13, 2016 6:06 pm

Peace out. See y'all tomorrow.

Best Picture (predicting eight)
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Spotlight

Best Director
Alejandro G. Innaritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Adam McKay, The Big Short
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

Best Actor
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Jacob Tremblay, Room

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Rooney Mara, Carol
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Best Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Spotlight

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Steve Jobs

Best Original Score
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Danish Girl
The Hateful Eight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Original Song
“Better When I’m Dancing,” The Peanuts Movie
“Love Me Like You Do”, Fifty Shades of Grey
“See You Again”, Furious 7
“Simple Song #3”, Youth
“Til It Happens to You”, The Hunting Ground

Best Foreign-Language Film
The Brand New Testament [Belgium]
Labyrinth of Lies [Germany]
Mustang [France]
Son of Saul [Hungary]
Theeb [Jordan]

Best Animated Film
Anomalisa
Home
Inside Out
The Peanuts Movie
Shaun of the Sheep

Best Cinematography
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario

Best Film Editing
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Spotlight

Best Production Design
Bridge of Spies
Cinderella
Crimson Peak
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Costume Design
Brooklyn
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Makeup
Mad Max: Fury Road
Mr. Holmes
The Revenant

Best Sound Mixing
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Sound Effects
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Visual Effects
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

TALLIES
9: Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant
7: Bridge of Spies, Carol, The Martian
5: The Big Short
4: Brooklyn
3: Spotlight
Last edited by Sabin on Wed Jan 13, 2016 11:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Final Predictions

Postby flipp525 » Wed Jan 13, 2016 4:26 pm

Sabin wrote:There's another thread?

There's a Lead/Support discussion thread now.
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Re: Final Predictions

Postby Sabin » Wed Jan 13, 2016 4:23 pm

There's another thread?
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: Final Predictions

Postby FilmFan720 » Wed Jan 13, 2016 2:46 pm

BJ, I will respond in the other thread...
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Re: Final Predictions

Postby The Original BJ » Wed Jan 13, 2016 2:44 pm

FilmFan720 wrote:Sabin, great deconstruction of this, but it leaves out one big part. That is that the ballots are simultaneously counted and the nomination goes to the category that they first get the required number of votes in. So, it doesn't matter how many votes they get in lead if they have already qualified for a supporting nomination by the time those votes are counted.


That wasn't my interpretation of the rules. Here's the exact text:

The leading role and supporting role categories will be tabulated simultaneously. If any performance should receive votes in both categories, the achievement shall be placed only on the ballot in that category in which, during the tabulation process, it first receives the required number of votes to be nominated. In the event that the performance receives the numbers of votes required to be nominated in both categories simultaneously, the achievement shall be placed only on the ballot in that category in which it receives the greater percentage of the total votes.

Doesn't the "nominated first" part have to do with the fact that ballots get counted by first-place votes first? I'm assuming they assign the nominations according to category by WHICH ROUND of the process the actors place (i.e. if you get the most first place votes in Supporting Actress, but don't have enough first place Actress votes to qualify yet, you get the Supporting Actress nomination.) I don't think these nominations are based on the complete randomness of which voter's ballot is counted first.

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Re: Final Predictions

Postby FilmFan720 » Wed Jan 13, 2016 2:34 pm

Sabin, great deconstruction of this, but it leaves out one big part. That is that the ballots are simultaneously counted and the nomination goes to the category that they first get the required number of votes in. So, it doesn't matter how many votes they get in lead if they have already qualified for a supporting nomination by the time those votes are counted.
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Re: Final Predictions

Postby The Original BJ » Wed Jan 13, 2016 2:04 pm

My predictions of Mara/Vikander in Support had more to do with the fact that I want to prepare myself for disappointment in this regard, and be pleasantly surprised if I'm wrong, rather than because I have that much faith in Jennifer Lawrence. In fact, I think both fraudsters may very well get more votes than Lawrence in Best Actress. (Oh, and this isn't to be overly critical of flipp, because I've seen others here mention it as well, but Harvey Weinstein is only responsible for ONE of those fraudulent campaigns -- he has nothing to do with The Danish Girl.)

The problem I see is that the actual supporting actresses who have gained traction strike me as pretty weak candidates for various reasons -- Mirren's run is based on past cred, McAdams's is mostly due to her film's heat, Fonda has basically one scene, Vikander/Ex Machina is a sci fi performance, Stewart's in a strictly art-house effort. Could you imagine ANY of these women nabbing a nomination in last year's field? The only two major contenders who strike me as solid candidates in the traditional sense are Winslet and Leigh.

Now, one could argue (as Nathaniel Rogers has) that the fraudulent campaigning actually had a circular effect -- that so much time was spent discussing (and so many earlier precursors went to) Mara/Vikander, that a lot of potential candidates just never broke through as strong as they might have. (In fact, a number of these women -- Joan Allen, Julie Walters, Sarah Paulson -- are attached to movies in the Best Picture discussion, so it's not like voters would have had to look in far-flung corners for these options.) But in a supporting actress field without that many strong options, I'm starting to feel, as FilmFan does, that Mara and Vikander/Danish Girl are going to be getting a lot of those top ballot placements. (In contrast, if you look at the year Winslet was bumped up, her supporting actress competitors were all very solid candidates -- it seemed a clear case of 6-into-5, with one woman being squeezed out, and surprisingly, it was Winslet moved elsewhere.)

Because as much as there's been a pleasing revolt against category fraud in some areas this year, there also has been resistance -- the Broadcast Film Critics (even after an e-mail to the membership stating that Mara & Vikander were leads!) and, more tellingly, BAFTA. It seems like years worth of category fraud getting out of control has convinced enough people that movies can only have one lead, and it's perfectly acceptable to put additional leads in support where "their chances will be better." I think this year might be a turning point of some kind, though -- if both actresses do make it in support, I think the battle just might have been lost, and the only way this practice will ever change is if the Academy addresses it in the rules. (This could be exacerbated by Mara winning in Support, possibly as the token place to honor Carol, which is what Harvey wanted all along.) In some respects, if the actresses missed nominations entirely it might be a pleasing outcome, because you'd have to imagine campaigns might think more closely about engaging in fraud if category confusion could actually cost their actors spots.

To just give the male categories their due in this discussion, I actually wonder if it might be EASIER for one of the men either fraudulently campaigned (Tremblay) or on-the-bubble (Dano, Keaton) to get the bump up, simply because the Supporting Actor category is such a giant cluster, you could imagine them not getting enough down-ballot votes to qualify, but still sneaking into one of those more gettable Best Actor positions.

Of course, I'd obviously love to be wrong tomorrow, and would be thrilled to see Mara and Tremblay in the lead categories, but I'm resigning myself to the fact that the tide may not be ready to turn on this just yet.

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Re: Final Predictions

Postby Sabin » Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:47 pm

It seems to me that determining Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander's placement in leading or supporting for Carol and The Danish Girl comes down to the following:

1) The likelihood of Rooney Mara for Carol and Alicia Vikander for The Danish Girl getting more votes than their competition in Best Actress and doing the same in Best Supporting Actress.
And 2) What does the effect of Alicia Vikander competing with herself have?

Let's assume for a second we are correct in assuming the race on some level. By this I mean, everybody on this Board will do a better job predicting than my mother who will ask if "The Guilt Trip" came out this year. We're all mostly correct with a few mistakes here and there.

It is likely that people will vote for Rooney Mara for Best Actress AND Best Supporting Actress for Carol.

It is likely that people will vote for Alicia Vikander for Best Actress AND Best Supporting Actress for The Danish Girl...BUT it is also likely that if they vote for her twice, they will vote for Alicia Vikander for Best Actress for The Danish Girl and Best Supporting Actress for Ex Machina. It is possible some people will vote for her for both films in Best Supporting Actress (and I guess also Best Actress as well).

Best Actress is currently a competitive race full of strong front-runners. Cate Blanchett, Brie Larson, and Saoirse Ronan are very likely to get nominated. Jennifer Lawrence and Charlotte Rampling are also likely but not as likely due to distaste for Joy and a lack of viewership for 45 Years. There are scattered contenders in Lily Tomlin, Maggie Smith, and Sarah Silverman. If we are correct, this means that Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander have to do get more Best Actress votes than Jennifer Lawrence and Charlotte Rampling. The frustrating thing is that between Mara and Vikander and Lawrence and Rampling, there's no question which films are more appealing to the Academy. Even if they don't get many nominations, it's Carol and The Danish Girl. Let's assume that 25-50% of Rooney Mara's total votes are Best Actress. Is that as many or more than all of Jennifer Lawrence and Charlotte Rampling's total Best Actress votes? And for Alicia Vikander, let's say the same thing although she has the added edge of it being likely that people who vote for her twice are going to vote for her in the aforementioned categories. Is that still more than everybody who votes for Jennifer Lawrence for Joy and Charlotte Rampling for 45 Years?

Best Supporting Actress is currently an uncertain race full of soft front-runners. There is no strong front-runner. Jennifer Jason Leigh, Helen Mirren, and Kate Winslet are likely. Alicia Vikander for Ex Machina, Rachel McAdams, and Jane Fonda are somewhat likely. By the logic stated earlier, it would appear to me that Rooney Mara is likelier to place here than in Best Actress because it will be easier for her 25%-50% to overcome what we are agreeing is a softer race. The only question then is whether she gets does better in the Best Actress race which negates however good she does here.

It seems as though Alicia Vikander's major hurdle in Best Supporting Actress is whether she does better than herself. Both films are liked enough in different ways. Is it likelier that Alicia Vikander gets more votes for Best Supporting Actress for Ex Machina than The Danish Girl? I have no idea. I'd imagine more voters will like her performance in The Danish Girl based on it's their kind of film. It is likely that those voting for her twice will place her for lead in The Danish Girl and support in Ex Machina.

Let's look at Leonardo DiCaprio for The Departed. Nobody in their right mind would think he is a Supporting Actor in that category and he was competing against another nomination. In a Best Supporting Actor field that I would say is not especially strong but stronger than this Best Supporting Actress field, he did not get a nomination but there were several other factors as well such as competing against other supporting performances from the film. But it was almost universally agreed upon that his Departed performance was better than his Blood Diamond performance. While I'm sure voters voted for him in both categories, his Blood Diamond performance got a Best Actor nomination.

There are too many differences in model for this to be a direct comparison but the model is interesting.

The are three other factors that spring to mind. The first is a willingness on the part of the voters to put leading performances down as supporting performances. They have a track record. The most direct comparison that I see would be Jake Gyllenhaal in Brokeback Mountain. What separates them is that Gyllenhaal received one of the first critic's awards in support which "settled" the issue and there seemed to be no movement to "correct" it by nominating him as a lead, largely because his Best Actor competition was very strong. Had Rooney Mara or Alicia Vikander received an early critics award for their Carol and Danish Girl performance in support, this factor would apply more but there is an appeared image from groups (who, outside of The Baftas, admittedly do not vote) that keep citing them both as lead.

The second factor is the Bafta voters who cited Mara as supporting for Carol and Vikander for lead for Danish Girl and supporting for Ex Machina.

The third factor that springs to mind is whether or not we are inflating the chances of their Best Actress competition. Let's say Mara and Vikander were not in the conversation. Would any of us be able to say with confidence that Jennifer Lawrence or Charlotte Rampling had strong chances for nominations? Jennifer Lawrence won the Golden Globe after voting had finished, Joy is not a film that is well-liked or is remotely in the conversation for anything, and it is failing financially. On the other hand, it seems as though the model we are directly comparing Charlotte Rampling to is Emmanuel Riva from Amour. Riva got a Bafta nomination and Amour did quite well with Academy voters. But isn't the amount of critical support Rampling has received more or less tantamount to what Yolande Moreau received for Seraphine?

And then one has step out and ask what will people who don't care or see movies do? I would imagine that benefits Jennifer Lawrence for Joy if they haven't seen the movie but assume she is good.

...my conclusion is that I have to leave my apartment and do other things now but I think this is a job for Nate Silver.
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Re: Final Predictions

Postby flipp525 » Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:28 pm

Best Picture

Spotlight
Brooklyn
Carol
Room
The Martian
The Revenant
Mad Max: Fury Road
Bridge of Spies
The Big Short

Best Director

Todd Haynes, Carol
Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian

I struggled with who to leave off this slate so it was kind of a stab in the dark that Tom McCarthy loses out. The direction of Spotlight was relatively weak, let's be honest. I've thought for awhile now that the Academy would resurrect Carol and especially for one of its most impeccable elements.

Best Actor

Steve Carell, The Big Short
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Steve Carell gets in (thankfully) over Bryan Cranston (Trumbo) thus becoming a dark horse candidate bolstered by the surprising nomination haul for The Big Short tomorrow morning.

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Rooney Mara, Carol
Saorise Ronan, Brooklyn
Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road

No guts, no glory, right? I think one of the bandied about lead/supporting gals is going to miss out one of those nominations altogether and I'm going with Vikander (who'll get her due, and a possible win, in supporting for Ex Machina).

Best Supporting Actor

Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Jacob Tremblay, Room

Magilla is right: this is the year’s most competitive category and could really go anywhere. I had a prophetic dream last night that Tremblay makes it in though so I'm sticking with that.

Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Sarah Paulson, Carol
Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Sarah Paulson pulls a total Marcia Gay Harden and lands a spot in this very mercurial race, part in thanks to the category confusion debate. I just can't see Rachel McAdams getting a spot here even if she has the most interesting scene in her entire film.
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Re: Final Predictions

Postby flipp525 » Wed Jan 13, 2016 12:54 pm

Big Magilla wrote:
dws1982 wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:In all fairness I haven’t seen The Big Short but I’ve never been able to take more than two minutes of anything Adam McKay has been associated with so I have no problem leaving the DGA nominee out of my predictions.

In all fairness, The Big Short is leaps and bounds above anything else McKay has done, and very much a director's film, unlike Spotlight, where McCarthy more or less made sure his actors were in focus, and went from there.

It would have to be leaps and bounds over the schlock he's done in the past to be in the conversation, but it's still not something I'm willing to go out of my way to see any time soon.

Why exactly? Several folks on this board have remarked how great it is. I see it doing much better tomorrow than some people are expecting.
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Re: Final Predictions

Postby Big Magilla » Wed Jan 13, 2016 12:20 pm

dws1982 wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:In all fairness I haven’t seen The Big Short but I’ve never been able to take more than two minutes of anything Adam McKay has been associated with so I have no problem leaving the DGA nominee out of my predictions.

In all fairness, The Big Short is leaps and bounds above anything else McKay has done, and very much a director's film, unlike Spotlight, where McCarthy more or less made sure his actors were in focus, and went from there.

It would have to be leaps and bounds over the schlock he's done in the past to be in the conversation, but it's still not something I'm willing to go out of my way to see any time soon.

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Re: Final Predictions

Postby Big Magilla » Wed Jan 13, 2016 12:18 pm

Mister Tee wrote:Magilla, even as deep a Mad Max skeptic as I wouldn't limit the film to three measly nominations. Cinematography and editing, at minimum, are slam dunks for the film. You're also wildly understating The Big Short. And, let's say Laszlo Kovacs would be hugely flattered to get credit for making Son of Saul.


Damn! Kovacs would have to rise from the dead to be hugely flattered. Sorry, Mr. Nemes. Fixed!

The only slam dunks I see for Mad Max are the ones I listed it for. Other nominations may be inevitable but as long as there are alternatives I'm sticking to them, though it's probably a lost cause.

I know I'm probably underestimating The Big Short, but I'm still wary about it. We'll see how strong its support really is tomorrow morning.

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Re: Final Predictions

Postby Mister Tee » Wed Jan 13, 2016 12:02 pm

FilmFan720 wrote:I don't think it's been decided upon at all, I am just going with the hunch that they both end up in supporting. The Academy doesn't have a great track record of fixing category fraud on its own (I can only think of 2 examples, Winslet and Castle-Hughes) and Supporting Actress feels even more barren than Lead Actress. If they get a nomination based on whichever category they qualify in first, can't you see more people putting Mara and Vikander as a 1 or 2 on Supporting Actress than Lead Actress, where they may have one of the other three very popular choices above them?

I don't think we've spent enough time going through the mechanics of how Mara/Vikander (and, for completion's sake, Dano/Keaton/Tremblay) would be sorted in both lead/support. I'll try to come up with a dissection of it before end of day.

Magilla, even as deep a Mad Max skeptic as I wouldn't limit the film to three measly nominations. Cinematography and editing, at minimum, are slam dunks for the film. You're also wildly understating The Big Short. And, let's say Laszlo Kovacs would be hugely flattered to get credit for making Son of Saul.

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Re: Final Predictions

Postby dws1982 » Wed Jan 13, 2016 12:00 pm

Big Magilla wrote:In all fairness I haven’t seen The Big Short but I’ve never been able to take more than two minutes of anything Adam McKay has been associated with so I have no problem leaving the DGA nominee out of my predictions.

In all fairness, The Big Short is leaps and bounds above anything else McKay has done, and very much a director's film, unlike Spotlight, where McCarthy more or less made sure his actors were in focus, and went from there.

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Re: Final Predictions

Postby Big Magilla » Wed Jan 13, 2016 11:52 am

Best Picture

1. Spotlight
2. Brooklyn
3. Carol
4. Room
5. The Martian
6. The Revenant
7. Mad Max: Fury Road
8. Ex Machina
9. Bridge of Spies
10. The Big Short

The first four are my personal picks, the remainder are my best guesses as to what AMPAS will also nominate.

Best Animated Feature
Anamolisa
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out
The Peanuts Movie
When Marnie Was There

When Marnie Was There is my personal pick which, for some unfathomable reason doesn’t seem to have much traction.

Best Director
Todd Haynes, Carol
Alejandro G. Inarritu – The Revenant
Tom McCarthy - Spotlight
Laszlo Nemes – Son of Saul
Ridley Scott – The Martian

In all fairness I haven’t seen The Big Short but I’ve never been able to take more than two minutes of anything Adam McKay has been associated with so I have no problem leaving the DGA nominee out of my predictions. The other DGA nominee I’m not predicting is George Miller whose Mad Max resurrection I could have done without. Any combination of Haynes, Nemes, Lenny Abrahamson (Room) and John Crowley (Brooklyn) in their place would make my Oscar morning.

Best Actor
Matt Damon – The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
Ian McKellen - Mr. Holmes
Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl

McKellen is my dark horse candidate over presumptive favorite Bryan Cranson (Trumbo). Redmayne is also vulnerable with Son of Saul’s Géza Rohrig my personal pick to fill his slot.

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett – Carol
Brie Larson – Room
Rooney Mara - Carol
Charlotte Rampling - 45 Years
Saorise Ronan – Brooklyn

These were the year’s five best lead actresses. If AMPAS kowtows to the Weinstein Company’s dictates and nominates Mara in support, then anything could happen, but I don’t want to think that so I won’t go there.

Best Supporting Actor
Michael Keaton - Spotlight
Mark Ruffalo - Spotlight
Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone - Creed
Jacob Tremblay – Room

This is the year’s most competitive category with Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation), Paul Dano (Love & Mercy) and Michael Shannon (99 Homes) also strong possibilities.

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
Kristen Stewart – Clouds of Sils Maria
Alicia Vikander – Ex Machina
Julie Walters - Brooklyn
Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs

Walters is my dark horse, but BAFTA’s nomination last week gives me hope. The others are fairly solid with Rachel McAdams (Spotlight) poised to upset.

Best Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Sicario
Son of Saul
Spotlight

I’m not expecting any upsets here.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room
Steve Jobs

The Big Short could knock out The Martian here.

Best Visual Effects
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Foreign Language Film
Labyrinth of Lies (Germany)
Mustang (France)
Son of Saul (Hungary)
Viva (Ireland)
A War (Denmark)

This category often has a surprise or two. Son of Saul and Labyrinth of Lies are the only really strong contenders this year.

Best Documentary Feature
Amy
He Named Me Malala
The Hunting Ground
Listen to Me Marlon
The Look of Silence

This is another category in which anything could happen. I’m not 100% sure of any of these.

Editing

The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
The Martian
Sicario
Spotlight

This seems about right.

Cinematography

Carol
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
The Walk

This one was tough to narrow down.

Production Design

Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
Ex Machina
The Martian

This was a really tough call.

Costume Design

Brooklyn
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Trumbo

Something (mostly) old seems like the way they’ll go (again!).

Original Score

Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Sicario

We shall see what we shall see.

Original Song

“Hands Of Love” from “Freeheld”
“Love Me Like You Do” from “Fifty Shades of Grey”
“None Of Them Are You” from “Anomalisa”
“See You Again” from “Furious Seven”
“Writing’s on the Wall” from “Spectre”

This one’s mostly just a hunch.

Visual Effects

The Revenant
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Walk

I’m fairly certain these will be the nominees.

Sound Editing

Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

I doubt they’ll choose anything else.

Sound Mixing

Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Not much else likely.

Makeup and Hair

Black Mass
Legend
The Revenant

This sounds about right considering the short list.

Live Action Short

Ave Maria
Everything Will Be Okay
The Free Man
Stutterer
Winter Light

Why not?

Animated Short

If I Was God
Love in the Time of March Madness
My Home
We Can't Live without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow

Who knows?

Documentary Short

Body Team 12
My Enemy My Brother
Last Day of Freedom
50 Feet From Syria
The Testimony

Could be.


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