Categories One-by-One: Actor

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Re: Categories One-by-One: Actor

Postby nightwingnova » Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:32 pm

Gosling did a nice bit...but not award-worthy.

Garfield is not in the race in terms of recognition...but then we thought that about Adrien Brody; but, Brody had the association with Polanski behind him.

Viggo seems to have impressed a certain number of voters but that and his film doesn't seem enough to propel him to a win.

While commentators have been pointing to Denzel as the Casey Affleck alternative, I'm not hearing much excitement about Denzel's performance or revulsion to an Affleck win (Brutally Honest Oscar Ballots).

Affleck is respectable and very good in Manchester - and if even the Brutally Honest interviewees won't oppose him for the accusations, then he should have the award.

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Re: Categories One-by-One: Actor

Postby Big Magilla » Fri Feb 24, 2017 10:59 am

Both Washington and Mortensen are good to an extent, but for me, they both act too much in their films. I can't see either one winning.

Gosling's charisma carries him through La La Land, but though it goes against modern sensibilities, his singing should have been dubbed by someone who can sing. The same is true for Emma Stone. I can't see either one winning, but although I'm in the minority on Stone, I don't think Gosling has much of a chance.

Garfield gives a near-perfect performance as conscientious objector Desmond Doss in Hacksaw Ridge, and we know how the Academy loves to give Oscars to people playing real-life characters, but although he's been nominated for just about every award out there, he's won very few. Even though he would be my second choice, I don't think he has much support within the Academy.

Affleck does give the kind of performance that is generally overlooked by Oscar, but not always. He should win this in a walk. If he loses, it will be for a silly reason, not because he didn't earn it on the basis of performance.
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Actor

Postby ITALIANO » Fri Feb 24, 2017 8:35 am

Precious Doll wrote:Furthermore, as wonderful as Affleck is in Manchester by the Sea it really is not the sort of performance, low key and beautifully restrained, that the Academy gives awards for in the leading categories.

Definitely not. It's the kind of subtle, introverted approach to a role that usually doesn't even get nominated and, when it does, rarely wins. Now that I have seen Manchester by the Sea I'd say that - in such a black-friendly year - only the fact that Washington has already two can prevent him from winning for his much showier - and much worse! - turn.

If Casey Affleck wins - and he will I think - it will be, I'm sure, only by a narrow margin (which absolutely doesn't reflect the level of the performance itself).

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Re: Categories One-by-One: Actor

Postby Precious Doll » Fri Feb 24, 2017 7:39 am

I do think this is a 3 horse race.

Andrew Garfield and Viggo Mortensen can stay home. Mortsensen gave what must be the must self satisfied and smug performance ever nominated by the Academy. The 'wanna be child stars' gave him a run for this money though. Joel Edgerton's lovely understated work in Loving should have taken that spot!

I do think Ryan Gosling has a better chances that most people are giving him. He is in a much loved and popular film and he is and always has been so magnetic and appealing in most of his films. Gosling and Stone make a great couple and it would seem odd him missing out whilst Emma walks on stage to collect her statue.

Also I think Washington & Affleck have some negatives that could help Gosling over the line.

Washington: The SAG win was not a surprise. Washington had never won a SAG and most members of SAG are American and Washington is held with great respect and reverence in the U.S. A third Oscar is a little harder. It would put him there with Nicholson, Streep & Day-Lewis. How eager they are to give him a third Oscar, well we will have to wait and see.

Affleck: He has gave the most highly praised performance of the year and it is a beautiful realised piece of work. The non sex scandal is going to hurt to some degree but by how much. Furthermore, as wonderful as Affleck is in Manchester by the Sea it really is not the sort of performance, low key and beautifully restrained, that the Academy gives awards for in the leading categories. They tend to prefer some razzle dazzle from there lead performances. Also Affleck doesn't feel 'due'. As a matter of fact nobody nominated is 'due' which gives the outcome a higher degree of uncertainty.

I would vote for Affleck myself but I'd be very tempted to vote for Gosling. But I of course am not a member and don't vote but Samuel L. Jackson is and he is voting for Denzel.
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Categories One-by-One: Actor

Postby anonymous1980 » Fri Feb 24, 2017 4:13 am

The nominees:

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

This is another contentious category. Andrew Garfield and Viggo Mortensen should probably sit back, relax and be thankful for their nominations and to be invited to the party. Ryan Gosling's only hope is if Academy voters go super crazy for La La Land and he gets carried along for the ride. But that only places him a very distant third against two actors who will provide some of the night's actual suspense. Casey Affleck pretty much swept the precursor awards and, having seen the film deservedly so, for his subtle but emotional performance in Manchester by the Sea. His momentum is interrupted by Denzel Washington's surprise SAG win. Washington has won twice before but he's one of those actors where winning a third is not a crazy prospect. Washington's role is also showier than Affleck and the Academy often likes actors to go big. And of course, the elephant in the room, Casey Affleck's sexual assault allegations. I guess it all depends, a.) How many Academy members know about it and b.) How many of them will let it factor into their decision. Personally, I'd vote for Affleck and am predicting him.

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