Call Me By Your Name by James Ivory
The Disaster Artist by Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber
Logan by James Mangold, Scott Frank and Michael Green
Molly's Game by Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound by Dee Rees and Virgil Williams
I think this is one of those foregone conclusion categories but let's talk about it anyway.
I looked it up. Has a film ever won Adapted Screenplay as its only nomination? The answer is never. What about Original Screenplay? It has happened a few times but not since 1957 with Designing Woman. The Disaster Artist, Logan and Molly's Game don't seem to be the type of movies that will break this trend. That leaves us with two.
Unlike those three other movies, Mudbound has four nominations which indicate some level of support and a non-Best Picture nominee winning over the only Best Picture nominee in the Screenplay categories isn't unheard of. Sling Blade won over The English Patient; Gods and Monsters won over The Thin Red Line; Eternal Sunshine won over The Aviator etc. However, these happened in the era where there are only 5 Best Picture nominees and arguably, Gods and Monsters, Eternal Sunshine and Sling Blade would have all been nominated for Best Picture in an expanded lineup.
Call Me By Your Name has the same number of nominations as Mudbound but one of them is for Best Picture which indicate some level of PASSIONATE support. That coupled with the fact that it's script was written by James Ivory, a highly respected un-Oscared veteran is an added boost. So, yeah, this is a no-brainer.
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