First Oscar Predictions

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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby Big Magilla » Sun Jan 01, 2017 5:32 am

Reza wrote:Hasn't "Loving" lost traction? You seem pretty certain it will get nods in four major categories.


I have to have at least one prediction that goes against the grain, otherwise I'm just mimicking everybody else even in a year when there aren't very many choices of distinction.

Fences probably has a better shot at Best Picture than Loving, but I I'm resistant to it because it's no Long Day's Journey Into Night, the play-to-film-as-written against which I measure all such adaptations. On the other hand, I think Loving is the most misunderstood film of the year. People were expecting a blockbuster in which right triumphs over might and the good guys win with music soaring. Instead they got a gentle love story about two very private people, which makes their story all that more heartbreaking.

While Edgerton and Negga have slipped in most pundits' predictions, I still think they are solid contenders with Moretensen and Bening less likely. Jeff Nichols and Jackie's Pablo Larrain are both vulnerable among my best director predictions. I almost replaced Larrain with Arrival's Denis Villanueve, but there's no way I am going to replace Nichols with Denzel Washington or Mel Gibson.

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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby Reza » Sun Jan 01, 2017 3:51 am

Big Magilla wrote:BEST PICTURE
Virtually certain
1. Manchester by the Sea
2. Moonlight
3. La La Land
4. Arrival
Strongly likely
5. Loving
6. Jackie
7. Lion
8. Hell or High Water
Maybe
9. Hacksaw Ridge
10. Silence

BEST DIRECTOR
Damian Chazelle – La La Land
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Pablo Larrain - Jackie
Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea
Jeff Nichols - Loving

BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton – Loving
Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling – La La Land
Denzel Washington - Fences

BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams - Arrival
Isabelle Huppert - Elle
Ruth Negga - Loving
Natalie Portman - Jackie
Emma Stone – La La Land


Hasn't "Loving" lost traction? You seem pretty certain it will get nods in four major categories.

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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby Big Magilla » Sat Dec 31, 2016 8:30 pm

BEST PICTURE
Virtually certain
1. Manchester by the Sea
2. Moonlight
3. La La Land
4. Arrival
Strongly likely
5. Loving
6. Jackie
7. Lion
8. Hell or High Water
Maybe
9. Hacksaw Ridge
10. Silence

BEST DIRECTOR
Damian Chazelle – La La Land
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Pablo Larrain - Jackie
Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea
Jeff Nichols - Loving

BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton – Loving
Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling – La La Land
Denzel Washington - Fences

BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams - Arrival
Isabelle Huppert - Elle
Ruth Negga - Loving
Natalie Portman - Jackie
Emma Stone – La La Land

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali - Moonlight
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges - Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel – Lion
Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis – Fences
Naomie Harris - Moonlight
Nicole Kidman - Lion
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Captain Fantastic
Jackie
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

VISUAL EFFECTS
Arrival
The BFG
Captain America; Civil War
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Arrival
Jackie
La La Land
Rules Don’t Apply
Silence

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Ridge
Moonlight
Silence

COSTUME DESIGN
Allied
The Dressmaker
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Jackie
La La Land

FILM EDITING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Deadpool
The Dressmaker
A Man Called Ove

SOUND MIXING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Ridge
Patriots Day
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

SOUND EDITING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Ridge
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Sully

SCORE
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

SONG
Hidden Figures – “Runnin”
La La Land – “Audition – the Fools Who Dream”
La La Land – “City of Stars”
Moana – “How Far I’ll Go”
Trolls – “Can’t Stop the Feeling”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Land of Mine - Demark
My Life as a Zucchini - Switzerland
The Salesman – Iran
Tanna - Australia
Toni Erdman – Germany

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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby Sabin » Sat Dec 31, 2016 8:17 pm

Sabin wrote
1) unlike Inception, Interestellar, and Gravity, it may be too much for the sci-fi crowd,

This might be my first time quoting myself. What I MEANT was it played too much to the sci-fi crowd, not it would be too much for the sci-fi crowd to handle.

Jefforey Smith wrote
I was extremely impressed with Sabin's First Oscar Predictions. In the acting races, I believe Sabin's picks duplicated mine exactly. Excellent job synthesizing the buzz as it currently exists. Yet it has been mentioned nominations are announced slightly late-ish this year so a surprising tweak or two could be in the works.

Thank you, although let's be honest. We have no idea how the new influx of Academy voters is going to affect the nominations. I could be way off.

Mister Tee wrote
I'm not sure I entirely agree with the assessment both of you are making of Arrival as a sci-fi/tech movie. First of all, note that of those three films Sabin cites, only Gravity got the directing nod,, and that's because it was seen as MORE THAN a sci-fi effort. Which I think is the category into which Arrival falls.

Sure, but we all predicted Inception would get a directing nomination too.

I'm of two minds about what you're saying. Maybe it's the purist in me but Arrival to me is the best example of thinking person's science-fiction I've seen out of Hollywood in ages. So, while I can see people telling their friends that Arrival is so much more than an alien invasion film, I can also see them telling their friends that it's actually good science-fiction.

Also, I'm not talking about Arrival as a VFX groundbreaker. I'm speaking of it as clearly a gorgeously directed film. Besides the VFX (which are fine), it's the sound design, the music, the editing (which is about as smooth as I've seen this year)...there are movies like Gravity where you come away saying "How did they do that?" but with Arrival all I hear is "How did they do that for $47 million?"

The Original BJ wrote[/b]
This certainly doesn't seem like a year when an expanded Best Picture field is really necessary. You have to assume the three critical favorites -- La La Land, Moonlight, Manchester -- are all locked in, but even in a five wide field, the remaining two nominees would probably have a whiff of "and then they had to nominate two more." This certainly isn't to say that every other nominee will be unworthy, just that it's a pretty motley crew that's likely going to make up those extra 5-6 spots.

Just a random musing. There are some years where the expanded lineup looks pretty good and there are some where it doesn't. Off the top of my head, 2012 and 2014 were reasonably good cases for selecting more than five movies. Whether you loved all those movies or not, there were clearly movies of substance that would crack the top five in any other year. But there are some years that would look infinitely stronger were there just five nominations. I'm not going to make a top ten list this year as I just haven't seen enough movies, but if four of the final five were Arrival, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, and Moonlight, I would have a difficult time remembering the last time I thought so highly of four films.
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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby Mister Tee » Sat Dec 31, 2016 4:11 pm

The Original BJ wrote:It's also worth pontificating about what the Academy's move to diversify its membership will bring. Certainly this year will have a more racially diverse acting slate than the last two years, with Washington/Davis, Ali/Harris, and Patel all looking safe, Spencer very possible, and maybe Negga or one of the other guys from Moonlight depending on how the ballots shake out. I'd make the argument most of those people would have been nominated ANYWAY -- though the press will likely treat it as a triumph for the new membership -- but if we see some artier/cool nominees on the fringe, that could be evidence that the new class has made a genuine impact in the awards themselves.

I agree that pundits will credit Boone Isaacs' membership drive for what's more likely the law of averages kicking in.

As for the new entrants making a difference to the overall Academy gestalt: there's no guarantee they all accepted the offers (especially all those directors); even if they all did, they only change the margins a tiny bit (expanding the roster by under 10%); and, don't forget: lots more publicists/front office people were added as well, and they may move in the opposite direction preferred. But, yes, it'll be interesting to see if the additions yield at least a slightly more diverse/surprising outcome this year.

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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby Mister Tee » Sat Dec 31, 2016 3:51 pm

Sabin wrote:Is Lion doing that poorly? I guess I haven't been tracking its box office that closely. I'm not really a fan of it but I assumed it was more or less doing okay, and with four Golden Globe nominations it's clearly in the race more than Jackie.

Opening at more or less the same very limited number of theatres as The Imitation Game and Carol did the past two years, it did about $30,000 per screen, where Carol did $60,000 and Imitation did over $100,000. Its expansion has been similarly weaker. I'm not saying it can't linger and turn into something bigger...and the Globe nominations are undeniable. But I'd expect a crowd-pleaser to have taken off a bit more strongly by now.

Jackie could end up making a strong comeback and Pablo Larrain makes a lot of sense as a Best Director nomination. But something I try not to do is make predictions on what could happen rather than what is happening. Currently, Jackie's not doing as well as it could be doing with the precursors, but also in the sense that unlike Bridge of Spies and Brooklyn I don't have faith that everyone is going to like it. It seems to be a little divisive.


Pure anecdata (also addressing okri's point here): my friend/Academy member -- who hated Steve Jobs because he found the character loathsome -- last night called Jackie a great movie. I think Portman's performance is evoking such strong response that the movie might be carried along by it. (The way Hoffman carried Capote way further than we'd anticipated?) And Larain is one of the few fringe candidates for best director who actually has auterist chops -- something that matters in that category. If something lame-ish gets a directing nod, it's because his film (I say "his" because none of the three female nominees fall into the category) is strongly in the best picture race (like Imitation Game, Precious or Crash); the "extra" nominees are almost invariably drawn from the art quarter: Room, Tree of Life, Wolf of Wall Street, Amour etc. This year, many of the hangers-on seem especially bland: Lion, Hacksaw Ridge, Fences, Hidden Figures. You could possibly make a case for Hell or High Water (though I'd disagree), since it's being touted by some hipster sorts. But Jackie/Larain seems one of the more plausible substitutes.

By the way, I'm not sure I'd agree that critics abandoned Jackie/Portman, the way they did Steve Jobs. It's just that Isabelle Huppert became a higher priority for them. (And the fact that they know Portman already has an Oscar may have played into this a bit.)

The Original BJ wrote
I also feel pretty good about Arrival's chances, partly because it's the kind of movie that seems certain to do very well down-ballot -- it's one of the few movies in the conversation that's genuinely a technical wow -- and because of that, I feel like Villeneuve stands a stronger shot than most at a Director nomination. His movies have been getting scattered nominations for years, he's directing a hugely anticipated upcoming sequel, and it feels like it's time for the directors' branch to welcome him into the club.

That's more or less my thinking. Villeneuve has been on the verge for a moment and there's so much craftsmanship in the film. The only knocks against it I have are: 1) unlike Inception, Interestellar, and Gravity, it may be too much for the sci-fi crowd, and 2) it plays infinitely better on the big screen than the small. I've never encountered a movie where there is such a stronger divide between loved it!/it's okay than those who saw Arrival on the big screen and those who saw it on the small screen.

Normally, getting assigned to a sci-fi blockbuster remake wouldn't inspire Oscar recognition but when everyone found out it was Villeneuve, the reaction was like "Oh thank God."


I'm not sure I entirely agree with the assessment both of you are making of Arrival as a sci-fi/tech movie. First of all, note that of those three films Sabin cites, only Gravity got the directing nod,, and that's because it was seen as MORE THAN a sci-fi effort. Which I think is the category into which Arrival falls. The film, in fact, is something of a commercial miracle: it was sold (unsurprisingly) as sci-fi/science-fact, and disappointed its opening audience on that score to the tune of a C Cinemascore. Yet the film has endured, earning about 4 times its opening -- super legs, in this era -- because enough in the audience found it, instead, something like a tone poem hidden inside a science-fact framework. It's this that has made significant numbers of people/voters embrace the film -- they see it as an emotional powerhouse made with intelligence and craft. (Something one would expect of Villeneuve, given his earlier work.) It's certainly possible the film's down-ballot support will help it get onto the best picture slate. But under best director, it's the poetry Villeneuve provides (in collaboration with his material and actors) that could get him into the more exclusive club.

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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby Jefforey Smith » Sat Dec 31, 2016 1:32 pm

I was extremely impressed with Sabin's First Oscar Predictions. In the acting races, I believe Sabin's picks duplicated mine exactly. Excellent job synthesizing the buzz as it currently exists. Yet it has been mentioned nominations are announced slightly late-ish this year so a surprising tweak or two could be in the works.

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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby Sabin » Sat Dec 31, 2016 1:20 pm

Mister Tee wrote
Having been disappointed in Moana, I was thinking Zootopia would be the default choice for best animated feature this time around. But now I've caught up to Kubo and the Two Strings, and I wonder if it has a chance. It's far from brilliant, but it has a more magical quality than Zootopia, and might hold greater emotional appeal. I find them apples and oranges, basically -- I like both at a medium level -- but I wonder if voters might surprise us this year. The race is certainly not a Frozen/Inside Out sort of runaway.

I'm watching both at some point in the next couple of weeks, but this would be Laika's fourth nomination. Considering there is no Frozen/Inside Out sort of runaway, why not? The closest thing I can think of is when Ice Age and Lilo & Stitch, (one an instant franchise and the other a warmly received island tale) were nominated and the Academy went with Spirited Away.

Mister Tee wrote
I know it's what everyone thinks of as an Oscar movie, and I know it's Harvey Weinstein (albeit a weaker version), and I know The Reader looked like a flop at this point in the cycle...but, how poorly does Lion have to do to get downgraded in the best picture sweepstakes? Everyone worries about Jackie's low gross, but it's ahead of Lion in almost every box-office metric (current gross, per-theatre) -- and Lion's great appeal is supposed to be it's a huge crowd-pleaser. Granted, I haven't seen the film (it's the annual "playing at the Paris Theatre only, making it a pain in the butt to get to" entry), and maybe my eyes will be shocked open when I do. But right this moment it feels like Saving Mr. Banks: the movie everybody thought SHOULD be a Oscar special but turned out not to be.

Is Lion doing that poorly? I guess I haven't been tracking its box office that closely. I'm not really a fan of it but I assumed it was more or less doing okay, and with four Golden Globe nominations it's clearly in the race more than Jackie.

The Original BJ wrote
Jackie seems to have seriously dipped in potential beyond Natalie Portman, but at least until the Guilds chime in, I'd have to ask, do its chances really seem all that much worse than most of those above movies, given some of their vulnerabilities? (At this point last year, Bridge of Spies and Brooklyn seemed a bit on life support, only to be resuscitated by PGA). Pablo Larraín still strikes me as a very possible Director nominee -- in the vein of Lenny Abrahamson/Bennett Miller -- simply because it's hard to imagine a lot of the above candidates making much impact with that branch, and his profile (foreign auteur making an American biopic) could be the sweet spot.

I agree. I also think Jackie could end up making a strong comeback and Pablo Larrain makes a lot of sense as a Best Director nomination. But something I try not to do is make predictions on what could happen rather than what is happening. Currently, Jackie's not doing as well as it could be doing with the precursors, but also in the sense that unlike Bridge of Spies and Brooklyn I don't have faith that everyone is going to like it. It seems to be a little divisive.

The Original BJ wrote
I also feel pretty good about Arrival's chances, partly because it's the kind of movie that seems certain to do very well down-ballot -- it's one of the few movies in the conversation that's genuinely a technical wow -- and because of that, I feel like Villeneuve stands a stronger shot than most at a Director nomination. His movies have been getting scattered nominations for years, he's directing a hugely anticipated upcoming sequel, and it feels like it's time for the directors' branch to welcome him into the club.

That's more or less my thinking. Villeneuve has been on the verge for a moment and there's so much craftsmanship in the film. The only knocks against it I have are: 1) unlike Inception, Interestellar, and Gravity, it may be too much for the sci-fi crowd, and 2) it plays infinitely better on the big screen than the small. I've never encountered a movie where there is such a stronger divide between loved it!/it's okay than those who saw Arrival on the big screen and those who saw it on the small screen.

Normally, getting assigned to a sci-fi blockbuster remake wouldn't inspire Oscar recognition but when everyone found out it was Villeneuve, the reaction was like "Oh thank God."
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby The Original BJ » Fri Dec 30, 2016 9:44 pm

This certainly doesn't seem like a year when an expanded Best Picture field is really necessary. You have to assume the three critical favorites -- La La Land, Moonlight, Manchester -- are all locked in, but even in a five wide field, the remaining two nominees would probably have a whiff of "and then they had to nominate two more." This certainly isn't to say that every other nominee will be unworthy, just that it's a pretty motley crew that's likely going to make up those extra 5-6 spots.

Some potential candidates -- like Sully and Silence -- seem to have fallen off the grid completely. Others -- like Hell or High Water, Lion, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Loving, and Hidden Figures -- all feel like potential-to-certain acting nominees, but I don't know that I'd bet the house on any of them being across-the-board candidates yet. (And some could totally bust.)

I also feel pretty good about Arrival's chances, partly because it's the kind of movie that seems certain to do very well down-ballot -- it's one of the few movies in the conversation that's genuinely a technical wow -- and because of that, I feel like Villeneuve stands a stronger shot than most at a Director nomination. His movies have been getting scattered nominations for years, he's directing a hugely anticipated upcoming sequel, and it feels like it's time for the directors' branch to welcome him into the club.

Jackie seems to have seriously dipped in potential beyond Natalie Portman, but at least until the Guilds chime in, I'd have to ask, do its chances really seem all that much worse than most of those above movies, given some of their vulnerabilities? (At this point last year, Bridge of Spies and Brooklyn seemed a bit on life support, only to be resuscitated by PGA). Pablo Larraín still strikes me as a very possible Director nominee -- in the vein of Lenny Abrahamson/Bennett Miller -- simply because it's hard to imagine a lot of the above candidates making much impact with that branch, and his profile (foreign auteur making an American biopic) could be the sweet spot.

It's also worth pontificating about what the Academy's move to diversify its membership will bring. Certainly this year will have a more racially diverse acting slate than the last two years, with Washington/Davis, Ali/Harris, and Patel all looking safe, Spencer very possible, and maybe Negga or one of the other guys from Moonlight depending on how the ballots shake out. I'd make the argument most of those people would have been nominated ANYWAY -- though the press will likely treat it as a triumph for the new membership -- but if we see some artier/cool nominees on the fringe, that could be evidence that the new class has made a genuine impact in the awards themselves.

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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby Okri » Fri Dec 30, 2016 8:00 pm

I''m having the same thoughts about Lion as you, Tee. I mean, it's crowdpleasing Weinstein, but man is it underperforming. Saving Mr. Banks, at least, was a solid box office hit, and all of Weinstein's "heartwarmers" tend to do much better than this. That said, Jackie is almost this year's Steve Jobs - a film that was abandoned by the critics come the awards season and only could score a priori acting nominations.

Fences seems to be doing well, box office wise, so I think it's safe in its second tier way (a la Theory of Everything).

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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby Mister Tee » Fri Dec 30, 2016 4:56 pm

I find myself unable to sit down and work this out as fully as you have, largely because the best picture race seems to me La La/Moonlight/Manchester, and a bunch of seat-fillers after, whose identity I can barely guess at. Part of me thinks throwing Hell or High Water into film/director is serious grade-inflation, but another part says, OK, buster: who else? I'm still a bit bullish on Arrival -- a well-reviewed movie that surprises people by doing close to $100 million seems Academy catnip -- but, again, past the top three, I don't know nothing for sure.

Speaking of which: I know it's what everyone thinks of as an Oscar movie, and I know it's Harvey Weinstein (albeit a weaker version), and I know The Reader looked like a flop at this point in the cycle...but, how poorly does Lion have to do to get downgraded in the best picture sweepstakes? Everyone worries about Jackie's low gross, but it's ahead of Lion in almost every box-office metric (current gross, per-theatre) -- and Lion's great appeal is supposed to be it's a huge crowd-pleaser. Granted, I haven't seen the film (it's the annual "playing at the Paris Theatre only, making it a pain in the butt to get to" entry), and maybe my eyes will be shocked open when I do. But right this moment it feels like Saving Mr. Banks: the movie everybody thought SHOULD be a Oscar special but turned out not to be.

It's shocking how thin best actor is for the second year in a row. Is there any hope of a pleasing surprise?

It strikes me Lucas Hedges will be a test-case for which is stronger: Academy resistance to adolescent-ish performances (Woodley/The Descendants, Garfield/The Social Network) or the tendency of lead acting front-runners to drag along borderline supporting performers (Gyllenhaal/Crazy Heart, Hawkins/Blue Jasmine). In retrospect, perhaps the omission of Woodley in 2011 should have tipped us that Clooney was not going to prevail that year.

Having just seen Fences, I'm a bit puzzled no one seems to be touting Stephen McKinley Henderson, who has a huge supporting role and is, by me, just as accomplished as the two luminaries. It makes me wonder if people see Fences as anything but an opportunity to nominate the two name stars, and if the film will be omitted most everywhere else -- which could include best picture. (Best director I'd bet the house against; I can't imagine a decent director choosing that as one of the year's best.)

Having been disappointed in Moana, I was thinking Zootopia would be the default choice for best animated feature this time around. But now I've caught up to Kubo and the Two Strings, and I wonder if it has a chance. It's far from brilliant, but it has a more magical quality than Zootopia, and might hold greater emotional appeal. I find them apples and oranges, basically -- I like both at a medium level -- but I wonder if voters might surprise us this year. The race is certainly not a Frozen/Inside Out sort of runaway.

I'd had the same thought about Storaro/Cafe Society. This branch has always been clique-ish, and, though it's been a while since Storaro was featured, the group that nominates Deakins year after year shouldn't be shy about putting him up once again.

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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby Sabin » Mon Dec 26, 2016 2:02 pm

These will be my last predictions before the Golden Globes are announced and the DGA and PGA nominations come out, which I suspect this year will lead to very little clarification if only for one reason: every group in the world can get down with Hacksaw Ridge but I could still see the Academy saying "Nope, sorry". I can see the old Academy doing that and I can see the new Academy doing that.

BEST PICTURE
Arrival
Fences
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
-- Fences, Hell or High Water, La La Land, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, and Moonlight seem like solid enough bets. After that, not sure. Some combination of Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Hidden Figures, Jackie, Silence, and maybe even Florence Foster Jenkins. I don't think Jackie is quite done yet. It could come back at the DGA or PGA but its chances aren't looking great right now. Silence just doesn't seem like it's in the conversation right now but again that could change.

BEST DIRECTOR
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
-- My rationale for Denis Villeneuve is that there is so much directing in Arrival, and with the trailer release of the new Blade Runner there seems to be a lot of industry confidence and excitement around this guy. He could be replaced by Gibson, Larrain, or Scorsese.

BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Arrival
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Captain Fantastic
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Arrival
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The BFG
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"City of Stars" ~ La La Land
"Drive It Like You Stole It" ~ Sing Street
"How Far I'll Go" ~ Moana
"Runnin'" ~ Hidden Figures
"Montage" ~ Swiss Army Man

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
The King's Choice
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Toni Erdmann

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Arrival
Café Society
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Moonlight
-- My no-guts, no-glory cinematography pick is Café Society. The film is a forgettable trifle that's actually made worse due to how distractingly beautiful Vittorio Storaro shoots it. It only brings out how half-assed the writing is. But man, it's gorgeous.

BEST FILM EDITING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Arrival
Fantastic Beast and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Silence

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Love & Friendship
Silence

BEST MAKEUP
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

BEST SOUND MIXING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Moonlight
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

BEST SOUND EFFECTS
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Sully

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Arrival
Doctor Strange
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
The Jungle Book
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

TALLY
Arrival -- 10
Fences -- 3
Hell or High Water -- 5
Hidden Figures -- 4
La La Land -- 12
Lion -- 5
Manchester by the Sea -- 6
Moonlight -- 9
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

mojoe92
Graduate
Posts: 155
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2011 4:27 am

Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby mojoe92 » Thu Dec 01, 2016 1:30 pm

I pick on who actually deserves the spots in my opinion. Not who I think will get in

Picture

Moonlight
La La Land
Fences
Doctor Strange
Manchester by the Sea
Passengers
Sausage Party
Miss Sloane
Jackie
Hidden Figures

Actress
Taraji P. Henson- Hidden Figures
Jessica Chastain- Miss Sloane
Sally Field- Hello, My Name is Doris
Natalie Portman- Jackie
Isabelle Hupert- Elle

Actor
Denzel Washington- Fences
Ryan Gosling- LaLa Land
Casey Affleck- Manchester by the Sea
Ryan Reynolds- Deadpool
Dev Patel- Lion

Supporting Actress
Michelle Williams- Manchester by the Sea
Tilda Swinton- Doctor Strange
Jeannie Berlin- Cafe Society
Angela Trimbur- Trashfire
Laura Dern- The Founder

Supporting Actor
Mykelti Williamson- Fences
Mahershala Ali- Moonlight
Michael Shannon- Noctornal Animals
Billy Crudup- 20th Century Woman
Hugh Grant- Florence Foster Jenkins

mlrg
Adjunct
Posts: 1076
Joined: Tue Dec 07, 2004 11:19 am
Location: Lisbon, Portugal

Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby mlrg » Wed Nov 23, 2016 8:55 am

As I do every year (usually getting 3/4 correct out of every category) these are my pre precursors final predictions

Picture
Arrival
Fences
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Silence

Director
Denis Villenueve “Arrival“
Denzel Washington “Fences”
Pablo Larrain “Jackie”
Damien Chazelle “La La Land“
Martin Scorsese “Silence”

Actor
Cassey Affleck “Manchester by the Sea”
Andrew Garfield “Silence”
Ryan Gosling “La La Land”
Tom Hanks “Sully”
Denzel Washington “Fences”

Actress
Amy Adams “Arrival”
Annette Bening “20th Century Women”
Isabelle Huppert “Elle”
Natalie Portman “Jackie”
Emma Stone “La La Land”

Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali “Moonlight”
Jeff Bridges “Hell or High Water”
Adam Driver “Silence”
Lucas Hedges “Manchester by the Sea””
Liam Neeson “Silence”

Supporting Actress
Viola Davis “Fences”
Naomie Harris “Moonlight”
Greta Gerwig ““20th Century Women”
Nicole Kidman “Lion”
Michelle Williams “Manchester by the Sea”

Reza
Tenured Laureate
Posts: 7742
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 11:14 am
Location: Islamabad, Pakistan

Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby Reza » Tue Nov 22, 2016 2:14 pm

Precious Doll wrote:
Reza wrote:
Precious Doll wrote:Poor Isabelle Huppert can't get a break this year.

Anyway Best Actress is certainly looking full: Natalie Portman, Amy Adams, Emma Stone, Meryl Streep & Ruth Nega's all have a ring about them.


I think Huppert may well make it to the Oscars. I seriously doubt Streep or Nega will get nods.


Reza,

Have you seen Elle?


Nope.

Gut feeling ;)

But unfortunately I've seen that Foster Jenkins travesty and Streep should stay far away from the Oscars this year.


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