First Oscar Predictions

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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby flipp525 » Sat Oct 29, 2016 9:46 pm

I don't think it's wise to count out Amy Adams for a Best Actress slot. She scored a, by no means secured, nomination in lead for American Hustle in 2013. I feel like that counts in her favor big time, especially if Arrival is another hit vehicle upon which she can ride into another one.

But the real rule of thumb that should be stated at the beginning of every award season is to also never count out Meryl Streep.
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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby Okri » Sat Oct 29, 2016 8:42 pm

1. I wonder, Tee, if the Adams' blindspot can be linked to her status as a supporting performer. We're used to performers that straddle the line or stars that demote themselves, but true supporting performers seem rarer this day and age. The other performers with as many supporting nominations as she has are all AMPAS scions.

2. How's this for coincidence: not only has Annette Bening lost to Natalie Portman and Hilary Swank, she's lost to Mary Alice at the 197 Tony Awards. he role she played was Viola Davis' in Fences.

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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby Big Magilla » Fri Oct 28, 2016 7:28 am

I'm thinking Huppert, Negga, Portman, Stone and either Adams or Bening.
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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby mlrg » Fri Oct 28, 2016 2:55 am

Precious Doll wrote:
Also some of the possible candidates for Best Actress seem becoming somewhat iffy. As for Isabelle Huppert - cross her off for Elle.

Elle didn't perform that well in Europe and Sony Classics just dumped it into release in Australia without any publicity - it's release is nothing more than filler. I really can't see them spending too much on the US release as it will akin to flogging a dead horse. It's simply not the sort of film the Academy would nominate with the possible exception of Foreign Language Film and I only see that as a possibility because they nominated Dogtooth not that many years ago.



I’m starting to think Huppert might get in. She’s campaigning hard and the Academy likes to throw a bone to foreign performances.

As we stand I’m predicting Adams/Bening/Huppert/Portman/Stone. Streep, Chastain and Negga with potential spoilers. It will be between this eight.

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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby Mister Tee » Thu Oct 27, 2016 7:36 pm

Sabin wrote:I think August, Osage County really reinforced the idea that Meryl Streep gets nominated for capital-E Everything, but the only reason she wound up in the running was Emma Thompson was in an even weaker vehicle with Saving Mr. Banks and the Academy just couldn't bring themselves to watch Blue is the Warmest Color.

You're correct about Exarchopoulos; if the film couldn't get the writers to bite in a fairly weak year for adapted, there was no way she was going to crack the actress line-up. After that, the gestalt was Blanchett/Bullock locked, and four others (Adams/Steep/Dench/Thompson) playing musical chairs for three spots. Adams benefited from having a different profile (seeming younger -- though she's not as young as she looks -- and being attached to a popular film), and the other three just waited out the coin flip. Voters ended up being slightly less indifferent to August than they were to Mr. Banks.

It's worth noting about Julia and Julia and The Iron Lady that Streep won the NY Critics prizes for each; there's no way she's going to repeat that feat for Florence Foster Jenkins, not with Portman and Stone on the roster.

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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby Precious Doll » Thu Oct 27, 2016 7:56 am

I'm beginning to think Meryl may sneak in again. Whilst FFJ didn't set the box-office on fire it wasn't a dud either given that the subject probably had limited appeal to the general public. It also strikes me as the sort of film that will play well on screeners.

Also some of the possible candidates for Best Actress seem becoming somewhat iffy. As for Isabelle Huppert - cross her off for Elle.

Elle didn't perform that well in Europe and Sony Classics just dumped it into release in Australia without any publicity - it's release is nothing more than filler. I really can't see them spending too much on the US release as it will akin to flogging a dead horse. It's simply not the sort of film the Academy would nominate with the possible exception of Foreign Language Film and I only see that as a possibility because they nominated Dogtooth not that many years ago.

Just saw Hell or High Water and agree with Mister Tee and B.J. that Jeff Bridges has a reasonable shot. It's the best role he has had in years.
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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby FilmFan720 » Wed Oct 26, 2016 3:20 pm

The Original BJ wrote:Speaking of Best Actress, what do folks think about Meryl Streep's chances? A lot of people seem to be including her based on the assumption that she never misses, but given the level of competition in Best Actress this year, might this be the rare occasion when she does? Because Florence Foster Jenkins, despite looking like a crowd-pleasing comedy, wasn't actually that big a hit -- it actually grossed less than The Iron Lady AND August: Osage County, and made less than a third of Julie & Julia's numbers. I wonder if the movie might have just made too minor an impact to contend.


The Iron Lady and August: Osage County were also late releases and higher profile roles. In December, when nominations start to be solidified, we didn't know they would underperform at the box office. They were also roles that, from being announced, felt like Oscar nominated roles, even if Streep wasn't playing them. By the time December rolls around this time, FFJ should be all but forgotten.
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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby Sabin » Wed Oct 26, 2016 2:58 pm

Mister Tee wrote
Question: why are so many people (not so much here as at Oscar blogger sites) SO certain Annette Bening is getting nominated for 20th Century Women while omitting Amy Adams in Arrival, who's got far wider critical approval for a film that looks from here like a hit? Is Amy Adams just a permanent blind spot for the bloggers (as in, they keep not predicting her and she keeps getting nominated?).

I've seen Annette Bening in 20th Century Women and I'm not certain she'll be nominated at all. With Viola Davis out of the way, she might have an opening. Reviews for 20th Century Women seem to be kinder than I imagined. But the movie doesn't know what to do with her character or provide her with a strong, resonating arc. I don't like her chances.

Arrival is going to have a stronger profile than Nocturnal Animals and at this point looks like a reasonable contender for a Best Picture nomination, so think she's a pretty good bet right now for a Best Actress nomination for that film. But in the past week or two, I've become pretty sold on the idea of Emma Stone winning the Oscar. Which ties into this next quote...

The Original BJ wrote
Speaking of Best Actress, what do folks think about Meryl Streep's chances? A lot of people seem to be including her based on the assumption that she never misses, but given the level of competition in Best Actress this year, might this be the rare occasion when she does? Because Florence Foster Jenkins, despite looking like a crowd-pleasing comedy, wasn't actually that big a hit -- it actually grossed less than The Iron Lady AND August: Osage County, and made less than a third of Julie & Julia's numbers. I wonder if the movie might have just made too minor an impact to contend.

I thought Florence Foster Jenkins was going to be a bigger hit. I think it's likely to get nominated at the Golden Globes for Picture, Actress, and maybe Hugh Grant for Best Supporting Actor. So that puts her in the running for sure. But the field looks like Emma Stone, Natalie Portman, Ruth Negga, and some combination of Amy Adams, Isabelle Huppert, Annette Bening, Jessica Chastain, and Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures). If Florence Foster Jenkins was a bigger hit, then sure. Right now, I think her chances depend on other films or contenders doing worse than expected. If Hidden Figures is a bust, if Isabelle Huppert doesn't pick up the critic's awards that she needs (Charlotte Rampling wasn't nominated for a Golden Globe or a SAG award), and if Miss Sloan or 20th Century Women become non-factors, then I think her chances improve.

I think August, Osage County really reinforced the idea that Meryl Streep gets nominated for capital-E Everything, but the only reason she wound up in the running was Emma Thompson was in an even weaker vehicle with Saving Mr. Banks and the Academy just couldn't bring themselves to watch Blue is the Warmest Color.

The Original BJ wrote
On A24's award site, it lists entire FYC ads for all of its movies, and Moonlight's campaign is for Original Screenplay (screenplay by Jenkins, story by Tarell Alvin McCraney, who wrote the unproduced play.) HOWEVER... there is a TBC -- to be confirmed -- listed after Original Screenplay, which doesn't appear on the campaign pages for their other movies. Whether this means the script will be considered Original across the board, or if maybe the WGA ruled it an Original with wiggle room at the Academy remains to be seen.

Pushing it to Adapted would be the smartest thing they could do. It could win.
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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby The Original BJ » Wed Oct 26, 2016 1:32 pm

On A24's award site, it lists entire FYC ads for all of its movies, and Moonlight's campaign is for Original Screenplay (screenplay by Jenkins, story by Tarell Alvin McCraney, who wrote the unproduced play.) HOWEVER... there is a TBC -- to be confirmed -- listed after Original Screenplay, which doesn't appear on the campaign pages for their other movies. Whether this means the script will be considered Original across the board, or if maybe the WGA ruled it an Original with wiggle room at the Academy remains to be seen.

I think by this point it's safe to say that Oscar bloggers' view -- that Annette Bening is the most Oscar-overdue person on the planet -- has caused them to over-inflate her chances in this race significantly. I see a lot of people touting her as a potential winner, and having seen 20th Century Women, I have a very difficult time seeing that happen. She's got a solid three-dimensional part, but not a show-stopping one, and while she might have been able to muster up a win based on sentiment in a less competitive year, the individual raves for Stone & Portman suggest this is going to be a challenging year to make that happen. I rate her a solid possibility for a nomination, but don't think the fact that it would be her fifth nomination will make her any more competitive based on overdue points than Amy Adams was on her fifth. (And similarly, I think Adams seems like a decent nomination contender this year -- especially with the extra credit of having two praised performances -- but she'll likely still have to wait for her long-elusive trophy as well.)

Speaking of Best Actress, what do folks think about Meryl Streep's chances? A lot of people seem to be including her based on the assumption that she never misses, but given the level of competition in Best Actress this year, might this be the rare occasion when she does? Because Florence Foster Jenkins, despite looking like a crowd-pleasing comedy, wasn't actually that big a hit -- it actually grossed less than The Iron Lady AND August: Osage County, and made less than a third of Julie & Julia's numbers. I wonder if the movie might have just made too minor an impact to contend.

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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby Mister Tee » Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:43 pm

The Hacksaw Ridge thing is baffling to me. The Hollywood Film Award thing means there's some portion of Hollywood pushing hard for a Gibson redemption tour (the HFAs are bottom of the barrel in terms of credibility, but they do represent some stratum of industry sentiment). But critical response has simply not been commensurate with this apparent desire: it sits at 68 on Metacritic (with no single grade above 83), not the kind of rating that usually leads to a major push without Harvey Weinstein behind it. What's the deal?

Viola Davis of course has a near-perfect Oscar-debt profile: two previous nominations including a close loss, a role already proven in another awards genres. The only remaining hurdle is, is the film any good? (Failure at which was enough to cost Richard Burton/Equus.) Again I note that Denzel Washington's record as director is not promising.

Sabin, you sent me scurrying to the stats to find out where Kenny Lonergan's other writing nomination came from. I'd totally forgotten he was part of Gangs.

Question: why are so many people (not so much here as at Oscar blogger sites) SO certain Annette Bening is getting nominated for 20th Century Women while omitting Amy Adams in Arrival, who's got far wider critical approval for a film that looks from here like a hit? Is Amy Adams just a permanent blind spot for the bloggers (as in, they keep not predicting her and she keeps getting nominated?).

Does anyone know with certainty whether Moonlight is original or adapted? I've heard it's got that same Whiplash genesis (based on an earlier, shorter work). The studio may decide (correctly) that adapted looks like a softer category this year, and why compete with Manchester and La La Land if you can go elsewhere?

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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby Sabin » Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:17 pm

Dev Patel is being pushed for Best Supporting Actor for Lion.
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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby criddic3 » Tue Oct 25, 2016 4:40 pm

Sabin wrote:It sounds like Andrew Garfield is being referred to as the star of the film which means that Liam Neeson could position himself for a long-overdue Oscar in support.


The major visibility of Garfield's lead role in Hacksaw Ridge would seemingly put him in a similar position to Leonardo DiCaprio in 2006, but unlike DiCaprio the studios can't try to split his chances by putting one performance in support (several awards outfits gave DiCaprio nods in support for The Departed.) Mel Gibson is being given a special award by the Hollywood Film Awards next month, paving the way for a high-profile comeback. While the Academy may not be ready to give Gibson himself any accolades, a good reception for his film could lead to a nomination for Garfield.
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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby Sabin » Mon Oct 24, 2016 12:37 am

Viola Davis is apparently being pushed to supporting for Fences.

And yet sight unseen, it's hard not to immediately view her as the front-runner. She has two nominations under her belt (both of them in the hunt for a win), and a huge show on television. She won Best Leading Actress at the Tonys for this role and currently the Best Supporting Actress field seems comprised of smaller roles like Michelle Williams in Manchester by the Sea and Naomie Harris for Moonlight.

This also further solidifies the lead actress race between Emma Stone and Natalie Portman.

I was wondering earlier today if there are any races that we can pretty much call at this point. 13th for Best Documentary looks like a very likely winner. Maybe Kenneth Lonergan for Best Original Screenplay for Manchester by the Sea. He will likely be in the hunt for his third screenplay nomination and first directing nomination.
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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby dws1982 » Sun Oct 16, 2016 1:03 pm

Sabin wrote:It sounds like Andrew Garfield is being referred to as the star of the film which means that Liam Neeson could position himself for a long-overdue Oscar in support.

If it's anything like the book, Neeson's role wouldn't be that big, or even that interesting, although I can understand the importance of casting a big name in that role.

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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby Sabin » Sun Oct 16, 2016 12:02 pm

Well, there's no reason to redo my predictions this moment but it sure looks like Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk will take a tumble.

Since I released my predictions, it's been confirmed that Martin Scorsese's Silence will be released. Five or Scorsese's last six movies have been nominated for Best Picture (The Wolf of Wall Street, Hugo, The Departed, The Aviator, and Gangs of New York). Basically anytime a movie looks like it's tackling white elephant material it's nominated. So, it's a bit foolish to bet against the film. Even if it's not beloved, it'll likely end up in the race to some degree. Martin Scorsese is 73!

It sounds like Andrew Garfield is being referred to as the star of the film which means that Liam Neeson could position himself for a long-overdue Oscar in support.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver


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