First Oscar Predictions

Okri
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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby Okri » Mon Sep 19, 2016 6:54 pm

I'll be interested your take on it, Sabin, once you see it. But yeah, I was surprised that Nichols chose this vehicle.

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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby Big Magilla » Mon Sep 19, 2016 7:01 am

On paper Loving seemed like the one to beat for Best Picture, Actress and Screenplay. Right now I have it in my predictions for nods for Best Actor and Director as well. I do think, however, that those two categories are shaky. If it's as bland as you guys say, it won't win Best Picture or Screenplay either, but is still likely to be nominated for both I still see Negga as a strong Best Actress contender, but with initial reviews of the film suggesting that the performance is too quiet to win over the more emotional fireworks that Portman, Stone, Adams and the still unseen Davis provide.

With no clear favorite in any of the major categories, this is starting out as the most competitive awards season in years. Let's hope the suspense continues, at least for a while.
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Sabin
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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby Sabin » Mon Sep 19, 2016 6:34 am

Okri wrote
Three things
1. Loving is so bland it makes Philomena look like Samuel Fuller. As soon as I saw it (TIFF), I dropped it.

I have several friends who agree with you. I'm not sure that's necessarily going to end up being a knock on a film that tackles race issues in a year where others of its kind are either more challenging or divisive. That said if you are right, I definitely expected more from Jeff Nichols.

Okri wrote
2. La La Land will likely lead the nomination tally. The audience interrupted it four times with applause. Though I'm a little surprised at the steam Stone seems to have built up already.

I'm reasonably convinced this is going to win for reasons I've stated elsewhere.

Okri wrote
3. Moonlight is terrific (my favourite film of the year thus far) but it'll likely be off the AMPAS radar. Screenplay + performance type nominee.

You could be right, but considering how barren this year is turning out to be as well as the fact that they will nominate at least eight films, doesn't that automatically put a film this acclaimed it in the running? Ultimately, that didn't help Carol but I view Haynes' film as the exception to the rule.


One other film I've forgotten to include is Kelly Fremon Craig's The Edge of Seventeen. It's produced by James L. Brooks and Gracie Films. It features a female writer/director. It looks like a better-than-average teen tale that people like Owen Gleiberman are already over the moon for. It could end up with a screenplay nomination or if voters think they have another Juno on their hands maybe more.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

Okri
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Re: First Oscar Predictions

Postby Okri » Mon Sep 19, 2016 5:49 am

Three things

1. Loving is so bland it makes Philomena look like Samuel Fuller. As soon as I saw it (TIFF), I dropped it.

2. La La Land will likely lead the nomination tally. The audience interrupted it four times with applause. Though I'm a little surprised at the steam Stone seems to have built up already.

3. Moonlight is terrific (my favourite film of the year thus far) but it'll likely be off the AMPAS radar. Screenplay + performance type nominee.

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First Oscar Predictions

Postby Sabin » Fri Sep 16, 2016 11:57 pm

I need to take my mind off work and the election. It's about time we've had one of these, right?

A few quick disclosures:
-- I think we can all agree Silence isn't opening this year, right?
-- Fences....I don't know, there's just something about it that just seems like a chore.
-- Don't really know what to do with The Arrival. Probably a solid commercial hit met with some bafflement and then some below the line nominations.


Best Picture
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Lion
Loving
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Sully
20th Century Women

Best Director
Damian Chazelle, La La Land
Garth Davis, Lion
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Ang Lee, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Tom Hanks, Sully
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Dev Patel, Lion

Best Actress
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Ruth Negga, Loving
Emma Stone, La La Land

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Stephen Henderson, Fences
Steve Martin, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Best Supporting Actress
Lara Dern, The Founder
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver


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