NBR Awards

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Re: NBR Awards

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Nov 29, 2016 8:21 pm

It's not blatant, and it's not local per se, more of a West Coast bias.

Here are a few that were at variance with other critics and Oscar:

Network - TV hipster bias
Star Wars - anti-Annie Hall/N.Y.
Coming Home west coast vs. Pa. set Deer Hunter
E.T. anti-Tootsie and Gandhi (I agreed with them on this one)
Bugsy set in L.A. vacationland of Las Vegas
Leaving Las Vegas - same thing
The Descendants - set in the other L.A. Vacationland of Hawaii
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Re: NBR Awards

Postby Mister Tee » Tue Nov 29, 2016 8:00 pm

Big Magilla wrote:
OscarGuy wrote:Do the Los Angeles critics still have their L.A. bias?

They do, but they also like to champion films the other groups overlook. However, If La La Land can't win there, it's not the juggernaut certain prognosticators have been inclined to believe it is.

Would one of you like to cite some examples of LA bias? I know the group has an actors-with-subtitles bias, something of a hipster bias, and an Alexander Payne bias, but for the life of me I can't think of a time they tilted in the direction of local subject matter.

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Re: NBR Awards

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Nov 29, 2016 7:15 pm

OscarGuy wrote:Do the Los Angeles critics still have their L.A. bias?

They do, but they also like to champion films the other groups overlook. However, If La La Land can't win there, it's not the juggernaut certain prognosticators have been inclined to believe it is.
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Re: NBR Awards

Postby OscarGuy » Tue Nov 29, 2016 6:55 pm

Do the Los Angeles critics still have their L.A. bias?
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Re: NBR Awards

Postby Sabin » Tue Nov 29, 2016 6:17 pm

The Original BJ wrote
All of this is to say, these prizes are good news for all the winners (most of all, I'd say, Amy Adams, cause anyone trying to get into that Best Actress race needs any boost they can get), but I wouldn't say every major winner has locked up an Oscar nod just yet.

I'll agree that Adams is one of the big winners for sure. It also clearly positions Arrival ahead of Nocturnal Animals. Anything that allows her to sidestep confusion this early is a good thing. I think she's in for a nomination, and the failure of Allied clearly marks Arrival as dog in the race.

I think the big winner was Barry Jenkins. More than anyone else, he needs this. This is not shaping up to be an Oscar race for the ages, but Barry Jenkins is an outsider. His two films confirm him as an art house filmmaker, and the director's branch is a cliquey group. Todd Haynes couldn't break through last year. It seems like there is more enthusiasm around Moonlight than Carol, and Moonlight is such a visibly directed film that I think he's probably in good shape in a weak year.

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I wonder if La La Land has any chance with the legit critics, beyond design/cinematography/maybe Emma Stone. This seemed like its best chance to score a major win. It's not like this hurts the film any -- the Globes and Guilds can certainly do enough to propel it into the stratosphere. But, recall, The Artist (to which La La is sometimes analogized) managed to win NY; it always helps to have something major under your belt.

I think La La Land has a shot at the NYFCC if they split between Manchester and Moonlight, but even if they do, one of them could still win. It's worth remembering that Birdman didn't win anything, not even the Golden Globe, until it won the Producer's Guild Award.

I am predicting Moonlight wins big at the Los Angeles Film Critics Association because their last five winners have been one word films. I'm not proud of this as my rationale but I'm sticking to it.
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Re: NBR Awards

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Nov 29, 2016 5:56 pm

Now that the NBR is off the Clint Eastwood bandwagon, are they starting a new one for Matt Damon? He was their Best Actor last year and is a producer of their Best Picture this year. I'm not complaining, just asking.

I've always been under the impression, mistaken or otherwise, that the one they've missed the most as far as Oscar goes, is Best Actress which doesn't bode well for Amy Adams, but we shall see.

Not a lot of love for Silence and none for Fences, or are just being their arbitrary selves thinking everyone else will go there?
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Re: NBR Awards

Postby Mister Tee » Tue Nov 29, 2016 5:25 pm

I was out at the movies all afternoon (seeing the newly-crowned best actress, in fact), so I'm just getting my first look at these.

The film/director/actor choices feel more like a NY slate -- in fact, they were my intended predictions for NY, though I may now revise that. (Affleck, having now won this and the Gotham, could go on an unstoppable/Nicolas Cage in Leaving Las Vegas sort of run -- I always thought he'd be the favorite at the three old-time groups.) Amy Adams is more an NBR kind of pick -- not at all undeserving; simply not "this is what the critics will go for en masse". And Bridges/Harris are somewhat random picks from fields that could offer multiple options at critics' groups.

Best director at NBR has been something of a kiss of death (even Bigelow in 2012, who we thought was can't-miss). But Jenkins ought to break that streak; his film seems to have a hotbed of support, and I can't see the directors' branch omitting him.

I wonder if La La Land has any chance with the legit critics, beyond design/cinematography/maybe Emma Stone. This seemed like its best chance to score a major win. It's not like this hurts the film any -- the Globes and Guilds can certainly do enough to propel it into the stratosphere. But, recall, The Artist (to which La La is sometimes analogized) managed to win NY; it always helps to have something major under your belt.

The top ten seems even more random than usual. I actually noticed last night, in an earlier year prediction thread, that the Coen brothers have often done well with NBR (even Burn After Reading made the list), but Hail Caesar! seemed just too trivial to cite. Poor choice on my part. Eastwood, however, continues to reign. And what do the Silence inclusions mean?: genuine enthusiasm, or "we got to see it early so we feel we should give it something"? Maybe we'll have a better idea Thursday.

O.J. won both here and at the Gothams, but is anyone ever going to raise a stink over the fact that most everyone who saw it did so on ESPN in multiple parts, so it's really kind of unfair for it to compare it with standard docs?

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Re: NBR Awards

Postby The Original BJ » Tue Nov 29, 2016 3:40 pm

No real wild choices on this list -- but looking back at recent NBR slates, there's usually a winner or two that seem like they're a central part of the conversation that end up missing the eventual Oscar list. (The Best Director category in particular, has had a bunch of recent winners -- Ridley Scott, Clint Eastwood, Spike Jonze, Kathryn Bigelow -- that came within an eyelash of an Oscar nomination but nonetheless didn't place.)

All of this is to say, these prizes are good news for all the winners (most of all, I'd say, Amy Adams, cause anyone trying to get into that Best Actress race needs any boost they can get), but I wouldn't say every major winner has locked up an Oscar nod just yet.

It is also worth noting that this list skews a bit less populist than in some years (certainly last year, with its collection of major prizes for Mad Max, The Martian, and Creed), and you'd have to imagine that the big winners -- Manchester and Moonlight -- will continue to do well with the legit critics' prizes coming up ahead.

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Re: NBR Awards

Postby mlrg » Tue Nov 29, 2016 1:53 pm

The Original BJ wrote:Best Film: Manchester by the Sea

Best Director: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Best Actor: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Best Actress: Amy Adams, Arrival

Best Supporting Actor: Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Best Supporting Actress: Naomie Harris, Moonlight

Best Original Screenplay: Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Best Adapted Screenplay: Jay Cocks and Martin Scorsese, Silence

Best Animated Feature: Kubo and the Two Strings

Best Documentary: O.J.: Made in America



I'm pretty confident all of the above will be nominated for oscars

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NBR Awards

Postby The Original BJ » Tue Nov 29, 2016 1:46 pm

Best Film: Manchester by the Sea

Best Director: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Best Actor: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Best Actress: Amy Adams, Arrival

Best Supporting Actor: Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Best Supporting Actress: Naomie Harris, Moonlight

Best Original Screenplay: Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Best Adapted Screenplay: Jay Cocks and Martin Scorsese, Silence

Best Animated Feature: Kubo and the Two Strings

Breakthrough Performance (Male): Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Breakthrough Performance (Female): Royalty Hightower, The Fits

Best Directorial Debut: Trey Edward Shults, Krisha

Best Foreign Language Film: The Salesman

Best Documentary: O.J.: Made in America

Best Ensemble: Hidden Figures

Spotlight Award: Creative Collaboration of Peter Berg and Mark Wahlberg

NBR Freedom of Expression Award: Cameraperson

Top Films:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hail, Caesar!
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Moonlight
Patriot's Day
Silence
Sully

Top 5 Foreign Language Films:
Elle
The Handmaiden
Julieta
Land of Mine
Neruda

Top 5 Documentaries:
De Palma
The Eagle Huntress
Gleason
Life, Animated
Miss Sharon Jones!

Top 10 Independent Films:
20th Century Women
Captain Fantastic
Creative Control
Eye in the Sky
The Fits
Green Room
Hello, My Name is Doris
Krisha
Morris from America
Sing Street


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