Broadcast Critics Nominations

Mister Tee
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Re: Broadcast Critics Nominations

Postby Mister Tee » Sun Dec 11, 2016 11:28 pm

Natalie!

In the teeth of an otherwise La La Land landslide (say that five times fast), it would appear to suggest Emma Stone isn't the lock some have assumed.

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Re: Broadcast Critics Nominations

Postby Okri » Sun Dec 11, 2016 10:45 pm

Heh.

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Re: Broadcast Critics Nominations

Postby Big Magilla » Sun Dec 11, 2016 6:52 pm

I think any of the Broadcast Critics' nominees for Best Actress can win here, but I have a feeling that either Portman, Adams or Stone will win it over Huppert.

Garfield will win the Best Actor in an Action Movie so there's no need to give him a Best Actor win over Affleck who I think is the most secure of all the expected winners.

I do think that the supporting categories are ripe for an upset, which is why I'm going with Bridges over Ali who I think will win as part of the ensemble in Moonlight.

Davis is also up for Best Actress in a TV Drama Series award and is going to receive a special award so they may consider that award enough for one evening, allowing Williams to win this one, but I find that less likely than an upset in Supporting Actor.

As for Best Picture, I can see either Manchester by the Sea or Moonlight upsetting so I won't be shocked I fLa La Land doesn't win, but I would be mildly surprised.

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Re: Broadcast Critics Nominations

Postby Okri » Sun Dec 11, 2016 5:21 pm

a) Huppert just won San Francisco and Boston Society. While I don't think she'll win the oscar, I do think her absolutely critical domination really hurts Natalie Portman, who - based on reviews - really should've been contending. What makes it more intriguing is that when we see two performances singled out more and they come from two films that wouldn't normally occupy the centre stage at the oscars, one often gets left out (Dennis Quaid vs Chris Cooper in 2002, Albert Brooks vs Christopher Plummer in 2011). Now, I don't think that Portman's going to be left out - but Huppert is really stealing her thunder and I can see that smoothing the race for Stone (or Adams)

b) I can imagine Washington winning here if only because he's not been rewarded much. Or maybe Garfield wins for his two-film year.

c) I think the supporting races are open enough for an upset. Who or what? Dunno.

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Re: Broadcast Critics Nominations

Postby Big Magilla » Sun Dec 11, 2016 4:57 pm

My winner predictions:

BEST PICTURE
La La Land
 
BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
 
BEST ACTRESS
Natalie Portman – Jackie
 
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jeff Bridges - Hell or High Water
 
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis – Fences
 
BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS
Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
 
BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
Moonlight
 
BEST DIRECTOR
Damien Chazelle – La La Land
 
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Luke Davies – Lion
 
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Linus Sandgren – La La Land
 
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
La La Land – David Wasco, Sandy Reynolds-Wasco
 
BEST EDITING
Tom Cross – La La Land
 
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Mary Zophres – La La Land
 
BEST HAIR & MAKEUP
Jackie
 
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Doctor Strange
 
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Kubo and the Two Strings
 
BEST ACTION MOVIE
Hacksaw Rudge
 
BEST ACTOR IN AN ACTION MOVIE
Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
 
BEST ACTRESS IN AN ACTION MOVIE
Tilda Swinton – Doctor Strange
 
BEST COMEDY
Deadpool
 
BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY
Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic
 
BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
 
BEST SCI-FI/HORROR MOVIE
Arrival
 
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Elle
 
BEST SONG
Audition (The Fools Who Dream) – La La Land

BEST SCORE
Mica Levi – Jackie

Mister Tee
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Re: Broadcast Critics Nominations

Postby Mister Tee » Sun Dec 11, 2016 2:04 am

So, these'll be given out Sunday night, and, though I've opted in recent years to skip the agonizing presentation, one has to look at their results, given the group's maddening Oscar-accuracy rate. What the Broadcasters offer is, of course, not considered opinion, but a synthesis of What the Internet Thinks Will Win in February. So, a few thoughts on where that consensus is/will be Sunday night:

If a film achieves a truly broad critical consensus -- especially if it wins both NY and LA critics' prizes -- the Broadcasters never fail to fall in line: Brokeback Mountain, The Hurt Locker, The Social Network and Boyhood all won film/director from the group. One notes that this is NOT the source of the group's high batting average; in fact, it's accounted for a good number of their misses. When critics are more split, however. the Broadcasters jump to the Internet-popular, "fun" movie -- Slumdog, The Artist, Argo -- and there, except in the case of Affleck's impossible-to-replicate director prize, they've been infallible. Given critical splits so far this year, this augurs for the group to go heavily for La La Land. The only real question: will the critical sweep for Jenkins as director persuade some in the group to cite him instead of Chazelle? Unlikely, I'd say, but worth looking into. (And worth remembering: one big miss they had last year was picking George Miller as best director.)

Folks at Awards Watch have been convinced for some time that Denzel Washington is going to swoop in and start winning the televised best actor prizes. I don't see that at all -- I think Casey Affleck is the kind of consensus choice the whole season can get behind. But if there's going to be a switch, it'll likely start Sunday.

I think, a week or so ago, everyone figured Emma Stone to do a similar sweep of the TV prizes, setting herself up for an Oscar coronation. It's still possible that'll happen -- she'll certainly win the comedy/musical Globe without effort -- but I wouldn't discount the possibility of Portman or Adams winning here, throwing what had seemed a locked-down category into more of a free-for-all.

After last week's critics' voting, Mahershala Ali seems a clear front-runner for the supporting actor Oscar, which would normally be all this group would need to sign on. But I think Ali's run was pretty unexpected -- he's a sleeper sweeper -- and it's possible this group didn't catch on to it quickly enough for it to register in their voting. If not, I'd think Jeff Bridges might have a shot, here.

There's clear expectation Viola Davis will run the TV table, though it's a bit troubling she's shown up nowhere in critics' balloting. Even Anne Hathaway finished second with the legit critics before mounting her blitz through BFCA/Globes/SAG. Michelle Williams may have enough built-up sentiment of her own to make it more of a race than we think. But the smart money would have to guess this group goes for Viola (as the did in 2011).

I have no particular thoughts on the lower categories, except they might give us some idea of just how smitten the world is with La La -- which Kris Tapley has suggested might end the long run of best picture winners with six or fewer prizes.

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Re: Broadcast Critics Nominations

Postby The Original BJ » Thu Dec 01, 2016 6:23 pm

One other thing I only just now noticed: Jackie didn't make the top 10 list either here or at NBR, and missed Director/Screenplay here as well, in addition to blanking at NYFCC. I'm hoping this isn't a sign of trouble to come for the movie -- after watching so many mediocre biographies get Oscar nominations across the board over the years, I would be bummed for one that I thought was truly special to be treated simply as a Best Actress-only candidate.

You're right, Mister Tee, about Adapted Screenplay being completely empty this year. I'd love for Oscar's typically imaginative writers' branch to pluck Indignation and Love & Friendship from earlier in the year for recognition, because Lion/Sully/Hidden Figures make for a pretty ho-hum trio of candidates (to say nothing of the abomination that is Nocturnal Animals).

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Re: Broadcast Critics Nominations

Postby Mister Tee » Thu Dec 01, 2016 6:01 pm

We'll find out this year if the Broadcasters are truly especially prescient about Oscar choices or if they're merely a tail that thinks it's wagging the dog. Not only do these nominations precede most any other award season activity, the prizes themselves will be given out next weekend, well before the usual consensus has had time to establish itself. If they manage to nail the Oscars even with that handicap, we'll have to surrender to them forever.

As for these particular lists:

I don't think you can say Hacksaw Ridge fizzled commercially. It opened okay, and has held on well enough -- it should do about $60 million, which isn't bad for a movie with Andrew Garfield headlining. However, it isn't any bigger than Apocalypto was, so you have to wonder why this big best picture push, for a movie that had very mediocre reviews? The answer there, as far as I can see, is that there's something of a campaign in Hollywood to reinstate Gibson -- a campaign that probably originated with people who saw no reason to ostracize him in the first place -- and this movie with its muscular action (a style this manly branch of the Academy has always gone for) seems the ticket. I don't know if the effort will be successful in the end (i.e., get the film major Oscar nods), but the Broadcasters have obviously fallen in line for it. And I will note that the whole progression of this -- from "why are they doing this?" to "is it actually happening?" is not dissimilar to what I saw (watching helplessly) happen with Braveheart two decades back.

I think you might have buried a bigger lead here, however -- 10 nominations for Arrival! I'm going to try to write about Arrival over the next few days, but it's not a easy thing to do: the movie's achievements are unexpected and delicate, and it's hard to do justice to them. The big thing about it is, it's not at all what it appears to be -- a science-based thriller/procedural -- but, rather, a poetic film in the guise of such. This has, I think, led some audiences to reject the film (its Cinemascore was a reported C), but a greater number of people, apparently, to embrace it as way more than they anticipated walking in. Because the film forms an emotional bond with many in this second group, I think it has a chance of punching well above its critical weight in the awards upcoming -- I wouldn't be surprised to see the film do about as well with AMPAS as it did here today, and get into the race alongside the far-better-reviewed triumvirate of Manchester/Moonlight/La La Land.

Many of the other films cited here seem of the "we hear they're going to be contenders" ilk -- Lion (even though its grosses aren't close to such earlier Weinstein efforts as Imitation Game or even Philomena) and Loving (which is as close to generic Oscar bait as I've seen in years, but could score pointless nominations for that reason alone). And then there's Hell or High Water, which could get a few nominations as the surprise early-year indie hit, but for which this group seems to have gone way overboard. (I'm definitely rooting against Ben Foster, who needs to be discouraged from doing that loose-cannon-psycho thing, not rewarded.)

I haven't seen enough of the films involved to know fully about the other categories, but, based on what they've cited here, it's hard not to feel that adapted screenplay is going to be truly weak sauce this year.

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Re: Broadcast Critics Nominations

Postby dws1982 » Thu Dec 01, 2016 5:50 pm

The Original BJ wrote:Is Hacksaw Ridge something we have to take seriously? I assumed after the mediocre reviews and the total box office fizzle that it was a non-entity, and didn't even bother to see it. But it got a lot of top line nominations.

It had an 86 on Rotten Tomatoes, and 71 on Meteoritic--roughly on par with films like Sully and Lion. And like (I'm assuming on Lion's part) those films, it plays very well to a mainstream audience.

As a movie it suffers from a very weak first third and a very solid last third (decent middle third). I wouldn't give it any above-the-line nominations, except maybe for Andrew Garfield, who makes for an excellent anchor, even during the weak first sections. Hope he can take advantage of the thin Best Actor field and his other high-profile role in Silence and pull through with a nomination.

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Re: Broadcast Critics Nominations

Postby The Original BJ » Thu Dec 01, 2016 11:31 am

I never feel this organization's group-think prizes merit that much analysis, but a few things that jump out at me:

Is Hacksaw Ridge something we have to take seriously? I assumed after the mediocre reviews and the total box office fizzle that it was a non-entity, and didn't even bother to see it. But it got a lot of top line nominations.

The Isabelle Huppert campaign clearly seems to have taken off beyond cinephile circles, and if she is able to score here, an Oscar nomination seems increasingly possible.

If Silence opens to rapturous reviews, are they going to add it as another Best Picture nominee? The early nomination date could REALLY mess up their prediction track record!

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Broadcast Critics Nominations

Postby Big Magilla » Thu Dec 01, 2016 9:41 am

Unable to copy from the link, but here it is:

http://www.thewrap.com/la-la-land-arriv ... minations/


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