AFI Top Ten

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Precious Doll
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Re: AFI Top Ten

Postby Precious Doll » Fri Dec 09, 2016 12:44 am

Mister Tee wrote:
Hacksaw Ridge -- which I, too, have been putting off viewing -- feels a bit like a self-fulfilling awards prophecy: its critical reception is mediocre (only 3 Metacritic points ahead of dead-dead Birth of a Nation), its box-office the same...but bloggers talked it up as an Oscar comeback for Gibson, and, by god, it's on its way to that status. (This sort of thing mostly seems to happen to Guy Movies.)


Hacksaw Ridge -- which I, too, have been putting off viewing -- though is performing a lot better than Birth of a Nation did.

Hacksaw Ridge:
U.S. Box Office to date: $58,282,358 (and climbing)
International Box Office: $23,026,012 (and climbing and it is still to be released in a number of countries including the U.K.)

I think that's pretty impressive for a film with somewhat limited appeal that was I believe made on a modest budge of about 40 million.

Birth of a Nation:
U.S. Box Office to date:$15,858,754 (little chance of getting any higher)
International Box Office: Nil as it has yet to be released outside the U.S., but won't even make it's domestic B.O. take as the subject matter has virtually zero interest outside the U.S. I suspect it will be a straight to video in most countries.
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Re: AFI Top Ten

Postby Greg » Thu Dec 08, 2016 7:11 pm

I'm thinking it's possible every Oscar outside of the the acting and special (foreign film, animated, documentary, and short subject) categories could go to either La La Land or Arrival.
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Re: AFI Top Ten

Postby OscarGuy » Thu Dec 08, 2016 7:02 pm

What I don't get about the Jackie thing is that Hacksaw Ridge, which won several Australian Academy Awards, was eligible for this, but Jackie wasn't.

I also think people may be overestimating Zootopia. It was a commercial hit, which may account for its presence here (and may ultimately end up having outperformed Moana), but Kubo and the Two Strings is the sleeping giant in this race. At MetaCritic, it currently holds an 84 rating, putting at rank 34 for the year. Only two animated films sit above it on the list: April and the Extraordinary World with an 85 ranking 27th, and The Red Turtle with a 92 ranking 6th. For reference, Moana has an 81 and ranks 49th, Zootopia ranks 78th with a 78, and Finding Dory ranks 83rd with a 77.

If Kubo starts running through the precursors and even picks up the Annie Award, a case could be made for it to triumph in the end. I think the only thing keeping Zootopia afloat is that it's incredibly timely in a world of increased racism.

As an interesting aside. Laika (with 4 releases) is currently the only animation studio that's been nominated for every single production (Coraline, ParaNorman, The Boxtrolls, and with all luck, Kubo and the Two Strings). I just wonder if this fact might bolster its chances.
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Re: AFI Top Ten

Postby Mister Tee » Thu Dec 08, 2016 6:00 pm

The Original BJ wrote:So is Jackie going to be this year's Steve Jobs, the kind of movie that always gets nominated everywhere except when it's far better than usual?

Goldderby confirms Oscar Guy's instinct that Jackie was ineligible here; Lion was, as well.

But I still wouldn't dismiss that angst you express. It reminds me a bit of when I tried to sell people on The Age of Innocence: it turned out, people who liked those period pieces preferred them done that stuffy old Merchant-Ivory way, and resented Scorsese injecting energy into the genre. All those people who swoon over Imitation Game and Theory of Everything are perfectly content to vote for movies in that style year after year, and describe movies like Jackie as "cold" or "off-putting".

I don't see Zootopia as that strong, especially in such a competitive screenplay field. But this does likely mark it as solid front-runner in animated.

I realized I never even mentioned Arrival. I think I've begun to more or less assume it for the 4th spot (beyond La La, Manchester and Moonlight), so I'm no longer faintly surprised by its appearances.

Hacksaw Ridge -- which I, too, have been putting off viewing -- feels a bit like a self-fulfilling awards prophecy: its critical reception is mediocre (only 3 Metacritic points ahead of dead-dead Birth of a Nation), its box-office the same...but bloggers talked it up as an Oscar comeback for Gibson, and, by god, it's on its way to that status. (This sort of thing mostly seems to happen to Guy Movies.)

Looking over the last several years, it looks like AFI has traditionally missed one or two best picture nominees, and included 2-4 that failed to score. The trick is figuring out which is which.

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Re: AFI Top Ten

Postby The Original BJ » Thu Dec 08, 2016 5:32 pm

So is Jackie going to be this year's Steve Jobs, the kind of movie that always gets nominated everywhere except when it's far better than usual?

Are we underestimating Zootopia at all? I know Original Screenplay is super competitive, but might it still have a chance to break through in that category? It feels akin to the Pixar movies that have often been cited there over the years.

I saw Silence the other night and thought, people are going to think this is a total bore. Which was also my reaction to The Revenant, and that became a big box office hit with double-digit Oscar nominations. Which is to say...don't trust that my take will be consensus.

Ugh, am I really going to have to see Hacksaw Ridge?

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Re: AFI Top Ten

Postby OscarGuy » Thu Dec 08, 2016 4:47 pm

Jackie was probably ineligible since its director is Chilean and the film appears to be a Chilean/French/US co-production.
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Re: AFI Top Ten

Postby Mister Tee » Thu Dec 08, 2016 4:39 pm

The big misses are Jackie (another year my favorite gets the shaft) and, conversely, Loving, which seemed catnip for this group. Eastwood scores as always. And maybe the best news Silence has had so far.

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AFI Top Ten

Postby Mister Tee » Thu Dec 08, 2016 4:37 pm



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