DGA Nominees/Winners

Okri
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Re: DGA Nominees/Winners

Postby Okri » Sun Feb 05, 2017 7:26 pm

The thing that really intrigues me about this best picture ennead is that it has this weird combination of actually kind of popular and arguably overperforming, but at the same time it's going to the lowest grossing group of films (on average) since 2006. Now, depending on the final peaks of these films that can change, of course, but it seems like these films are collectively over-performing, which is nice to see.

That said, I definitely see where Magilla is coming from. The world has definitely dwarfed the oscar season for me.

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Re: DGA Nominees/Winners

Postby Mister Tee » Sun Feb 05, 2017 6:22 pm

Well, I'd agree that we have a race that includes films I pretty much like, and that's a pleasant change. But I think it'd be more fun if we had races that were more up in the air. Yes, best actor is undetermined, but it's utterly binary -- either Casey Affleck will win, as decreed by 95% of critics and assorted awards bodies, or, through some combination of dislike for Manchester/animus toward Casey (for not-clearly-determined harassment allegations)/affection for the actor/desire to offset last year's controversy, Denzel Washington will win instead. (For me, it also allows for the possibility that none of the three lead performances this year I found truly world-class -- Affleck/Portman/Huppert -- will go home with Oscars.) This is a suspense-improvement over, say, this year's two gimme supporting categories, but it's not Best Actor 2002.

What I long for is a category that's really up in the air, not a 50/50 shot. Why did Ex Machina come from nowhere to win visual effects last year? Because The Force Awakens, Mad Max: Fury Road and even The Revenant had some argument for being the front-runner. When several candidates are in the mix, anything might happen -- Marisa Tomei can testify. I think the Oscar-blogger-verse has made that an ever-shrinking likelihood in the top categories. (I keep waiting to be proven wrong on this, but years keep going by and the upsets don't come.)

Something I noted while thinking about this year: a lot of the races are defined by the status of nominees as either prior winners or prior nominees. This is of course often a factor -- last year, it's doubtful DiCaprio would have won had he not been a five-times-without-a-win nominee...and, if Blanchett had not been such a recent best actress winner, I don't think she'd have been as summarily dismissed from contention. But this year, prior status seems to affect how all for acting categories seem set to go. To wit:

Best actor: What keeps Affleck in the running is the fact that Denzel would become a three-time winner, and, almost more than that, a two-time lead winner for a somewhat weak film. Aside from Meryl Streep '11, and, way back, Ingrid Bergman '56, every two-time lead winner has been attached to a best picture nominee -- often a best picture winner. Yes, Fences is a best picture contender in this expanded system, but would anyone want to argue it would have made a top five list? I'd bet Lion, Hell or High Water or Hacksaw Ridge would have outpaced it. Conversely: if Denzel HADN'T won that best actor prize for Training Day, I'd argue he'd have been the favorite from the season's start, whatever the legit critics said about Casey.

Best actress: Natalie Portman's Black Swan win has been a clear anchor on her chances all season long -- her personal reviews are as good as most winners of recent years, yet she's been an afterthought in many face-offs. Take away that earlier win, and I have no doubt she and Stone would be in an epic battle.

Best supporting actor: Imagine Jeff Bridges hadn't won that career gold watch for Crazy Heart. Does anyone doubt he'd be a huge sentimental favorite? You'd be hearing a ton more about how Mahershala Ali wasn't really in that much of Moonlight, whereas Bridges' performance gave ballast to all of Hell or High Water. It'd be at worst a race, and possibly a Bridges blowout.

Best supporting actress: If Viola Davis had (as many expected) defeated Meryl Streep in 2011, would she even be nominated here -- might she instead be on the best actress roster, befitting her billing? The whole "where's she got her best chance to win?" strategy would have been irrelevant, since she would have been removed from the "must win soon" list by virtue of having an Oscar in hand. No one would have expected her to win in lead (too soon after her win); it would have been a nomination in line with Blanchett's for Carol -- a post-win credit possibly building momentum for another victory sometime down the line. And, oh yes: Michelle Williams would be highlighted as on her fourth attempt without a win, and her big scene would be aired 1000 times as proof it was finally her time.

Same Oscar line-up, in an alternate universe.

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Re: DGA Nominees/Winners

Postby Sabin » Sun Feb 05, 2017 3:31 pm

I'm not sure I agree with you, Magilla. Yes, I think the reason why we're not posting so much about these guilds is because it is such a foregone conclusion, but we're doubtlessly headed towards the most watched Oscar ceremony in years. I think to a degree, we are out touch. Last month, moviegoers flocked to not just La La Land, but Hidden Figures, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea, and most everything else nominated because they wanted escapism now more than ever.

I think ordinary viewers are going to care about this Oscar ceremony more than any ceremony in ages. If activity is down on this board, it's because with a few exceptions this is a boring race. Last year was a terribly exciting, surprising race in the service of films I didn't care about.

It should also be said that this year's Best Actor race is truly exciting and the reason why nobody is commenting on it is because there is truly no way to predict where it will go. Traditionally, Best Actor has been the second most major prize of the night, and there is literally no way of knowing where it is going to go because there are only two predictors and neither of them can be considered accurate. We don't know yet the impact of AFTRA on the SAG Awards and the BAFTAS don't seem to recognize Denzel Washington as a good actor whereas we might give him the same number of Oscars afforded to Daniel Day-Lewis and Jack Nicholson. With a few exceptions, I've never seen a race like this before where the only thing we can say is "Guess we'll just find out?"
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Re: DGA Nominees/Winners

Postby Reza » Sun Feb 05, 2017 11:59 am

anonymous1980 wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:I don't know whether it's the foregone conclusion of just about all the awards this year or the constant political unrest that is monopolizing everyone's time, but no one seems to care about these things this year.


What do you mean? I think people care about it the same way.


Dude you're not American. See what Magilla said from an American perspective.

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Re: DGA Nominees/Winners

Postby anonymous1980 » Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:59 am

Big Magilla wrote:I don't know whether it's the foregone conclusion of just about all the awards this year or the constant political unrest that is monopolizing everyone's time, but no one seems to care about these things this year.


What do you mean? I think people care about it the same way.

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Re: DGA Nominees/Winners

Postby Big Magilla » Sun Feb 05, 2017 9:16 am

I don't know whether it's the foregone conclusion of just about all the awards this year or the constant political unrest that is monopolizing everyone's time, but no one seems to care about these things this year.
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

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Re: DGA Nominees/Winners

Postby mlrg » Sun Feb 05, 2017 6:15 am

Damien Chazelle (shocker) won the DGA last night

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Re: DGA Nominees

Postby criddic3 » Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:26 pm

Sabin wrote:
Octavia Spencer has no big scenes or moments in Hidden Figures. Maybe they didn't want to compete with Nicole Kidman, but if that's the case then should've reminded her HEY! DON'T SAY WE SHOULD SUPPORT DONALD TRUMP UNTIL MARCH.


1. Spencer has some standout scenes with Kirsten Dunst in the film that will play well in Oscar clips.

2. Kidman's comments will affect the voting as much as Streep's, which is to say not very much in my opinion. Unless Streep wins her fourth Oscar, I don't think there is any evidence either will be particularly helped or hurt by their political statements. Nor should they be, when you think about it.
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Re: DGA Nominees

Postby taki15 » Sat Jan 14, 2017 7:57 pm

dws1982 wrote:
Mister Tee wrote:Though I heartily endorse Scorsese's nomination for The Last Temptation of Christ, it was less for merit than as a way of supporting Scorsese for a film that the fundamentalist right had done everything in its power to cripple or shut down -- to the point of offering Universal a significant amount of cash to destroy all copies of the film.

Interestingly, a lot of Christian writers/critics/teachers are now much more favorably disposed to that film than they were in real time. I'm sure many still hate it, but plenty of people are willing to give it a fair shake now. I really struggled with it last time I watched it (5+ years), but I figure I'm due for a rewatch before long.


Consider yourself lucky. In my country the film is still tacitly banned from television.

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Re: DGA Nominees

Postby dws1982 » Sat Jan 14, 2017 7:33 pm

Mister Tee wrote:Though I heartily endorse Scorsese's nomination for The Last Temptation of Christ, it was less for merit than as a way of supporting Scorsese for a film that the fundamentalist right had done everything in its power to cripple or shut down -- to the point of offering Universal a significant amount of cash to destroy all copies of the film.

Interestingly, a lot of Christian writers/critics/teachers are now much more favorably disposed to that film than they were in real time. I'm sure many still hate it, but plenty of people are willing to give it a fair shake now. I really struggled with it last time I watched it (5+ years), but I figure I'm due for a rewatch before long.

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Re: DGA Nominees

Postby Mister Tee » Sat Jan 14, 2017 6:34 pm

Sabin wrote:
Greg wrote
Sabin wrote
The lower-tiered contenders like Andrew Garfield and Ryan Gosling would not be considered in a normal year.

Isn't La La Land likely to have the type of sweep that would have brought along Gosling in just about any year?

The obvious comparison would be Leonardo DiCaprio in Titanic. Both films pivot on the emotional arcs of their female lead. He's a charming leading man. Historically, those get overlooked.

Some of this might come down to opinion on whether someone deserved the nod on their own, but counter-examples might be Eastwood getting in for Million Dollar Baby (over critical favorites Giammatti and Neeson) or Annette Bening for American Beauty. Then again, to back up your point, there's Richard Gere in Chicago, who won the Globe and got in at SAG, but was squeezed out by a hyper-qualified slate in '02.

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Re: DGA Nominees

Postby Sabin » Sat Jan 14, 2017 4:49 pm

Greg wrote
Sabin wrote
The lower-tiered contenders like Andrew Garfield and Ryan Gosling would not be considered in a normal year.

Isn't La La Land likely to have the type of sweep that would have brought along Gosling in just about any year?

The obvious comparison would be Leonardo DiCaprio in Titanic. Both films pivot on the emotional arcs of their female lead. He's a charming leading man. Historically, those get overlooked.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: DGA Nominees

Postby Mister Tee » Sat Jan 14, 2017 4:36 pm

OscarGuy wrote:Silence is probably DOA. I have seen responses that were extreme, but more so than The Wolf of Wall Street, the first film Paramount utterly butchered the Oscar season roll-out for. That film managed to earn Scorsese a DGA nomination even, so I'm afraid this may not be Scorsese's year. This isn't like "Christ" where he managed to snag a shock nomination. That film was actually seen and very well reviewed at the time (unless I'm mis-remembering as that was before my "time.")


Though I heartily endorse Scorsese's nomination for The Last Temptation of Christ, it was less for merit than as a way of supporting Scorsese for a film that the fundamentalist right had done everything in its power to cripple or shut down -- to the point of offering Universal a significant amount of cash to destroy all copies of the film. (Shades of Hearst/Citizen Kane.) When the movie had opened in late summer -- to loud protests -- The Directors Guild made impassioned statements in support of Scorsese's free speech rights (Clint Eastwood notable among the supporters). I'd always felt there was a chance Scorsese might get this nomination as a result, though I backed off some when I saw how may candidates there were for best director that year (note the two best picture candidates left off the directing lists -- films well within the wheelhouse of the directors' branch). But he did come through in the end, and I have no doubt it was as much a political as an artistic statement.

If Silence gets Scorsese a nod this year, it'll be tribute to his long-expressed devotion to making the film, as well as enthusiasm from the core group who truly love his film. But he'll be fighting against massive audience indifference, and the failure to make an inroads with critics' groups.

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Re: DGA Nominees

Postby Greg » Sat Jan 14, 2017 4:34 pm

Sabin wrote:The lower-tiered contenders like Andrew Garfield and Ryan Gosling would not be considered in a normal year.


Isn't La La Land likely to have the type of sweep that would have brought along Gosling in just about any year?

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Re: DGA Nominees

Postby Big Magilla » Sat Jan 14, 2017 4:20 pm

Sabin wrote:
Big Magilla wrote
I don't know. I think Harvey made the right choice between Lion and The Founder.

Why does he have to choose? The minute the shuffled Dev Patel into support, they weren't competing in the same categories. Lion is adapted. The Founder is original. He can't push two movies in the same year? This is Harvey Weinstein. He's the one guy who can!


He could when he had more money at his disposal. Nowadays he's not as flush as he once was.

The reviews I've seen all single out Keaton's performance. The only other actors anyone is even mentioning are John Carroll Lynch and Nick Offerman as the McDonald brothers.
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