SAG Forecast

The Original BJ
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Re: SAG Forecast

Postby The Original BJ » Sun Jan 29, 2017 11:30 pm

Sabin wrote:
Mister Tee wrote
I'd also note that, while Emma Stone has to be the big Oscar favorite, I'm not totally convinced she'll win BAFTA, either. If Portman (or Adams, I suppose) should win there, that contest could become marginally more interesting.

Isabelle Huppert has not won (or been nominated for) a BAFTA since 1977 for The Lacemaker as Best Newcomer -- Female. I'm reasonably sure's got that one lined up.


Huppert isn't nominated at BAFTA. (I don't believe Elle was eligible.)

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Re: SAG Forecast

Postby Sabin » Sun Jan 29, 2017 11:24 pm

Mister Tee wrote
I'd also note that, while Emma Stone has to be the big Oscar favorite, I'm not totally convinced she'll win BAFTA, either. If Portman (or Adams, I suppose) should win there, that contest could become marginally more interesting.

Isabelle Huppert has not won (or been nominated for) a BAFTA since 1977 for The Lacemaker as Best Newcomer -- Female. I'm reasonably sure's got that one lined up.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: SAG Forecast

Postby Mister Tee » Sun Jan 29, 2017 10:57 pm

Pretty good night for the cast of The Help -- Davis, Stone & Spencer all going home winners.

When Hidden Figures won the final prize, I was reminded of the fact that this is now the SAG/AFTRA award -- the added-on membership, I think, brings the group gestalt somewhat closer to the more populist one it was before screeners made it possible for obscurer films (like Away from Her and Crazy Heart) to win. Which is to say, Denzel and Emma Stone may have been more popular here than they'll be four weeks from now.

Like BJ, I'm worried that the award I was hoping to be most happy about is now the one most in doubt (something all too consistent with my Oscar history). But it's interesting to note that Denzel of course CAN'T win the BAFTA, so we'll be very much in suspense about that one right up to the end.

I'd also note that, while Emma Stone has to be the big Oscar favorite, I'm not totally convinced she'll win BAFTA, either. If Portman (or Adams, I suppose) should win there, that contest could become marginally more interesting.

The supporting awards, however, seem locked in.

Everybody obviously came in thinking, We hate Trump, and we don't care if anyone doesn't like us saying it. Several pretty good speeches, culminating in that guy from Stranger Things, who was a tad annoying -- he must have known that thing was going way past 45 seconds -- but got past that on sheer enthusiasm. (But what was Winona doing beside him? -- practicing every facial reaction she'd ever learned?)

I think Dolly Parton missed Jane Fonda -- I'm sure they'd worked something up, and Dolly wasn't quite up to winging it on her own. But it was fun, and then Lily's speech was mostly vintage (I assume courtesy Jane Wagner), though a little bumpy in spots.

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Re: SAG Forecast

Postby Sabin » Sun Jan 29, 2017 10:47 pm

Huh. The last time Denzel Washington won it was because the race was politicized. Russell Crowe was acting like a giant asshole.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: SAG Forecast

Postby The Original BJ » Sun Jan 29, 2017 10:25 pm

At just about the moment when I thought, this is going to be the most boring Oscars in history, the Best Actor upset occurred, sending a race which I thought was locked up for Casey into fierce competition. My take is somewhat split -- I thought it puzzling that a performance as strong as Denzel's would go through the season without winning a single prize, so I wasn't bothered by his win. But at the same time, I'm now concerned that the one acting category in which I was so enthused about the frontrunner is now the one that seems most likely to be upset (go figure). I'll still be rooting pretty strongly for Affleck on Oscar night.

Sabin is right that Hidden Figures peaked at the right time for this award, and certainly qualifies in terms of having a sizable cast of likable performers. But I found the caliber of the acting well below Moonlight/Manchester, and would have preferred one of those two movies to take the prize.

On the TV side, I think it's questionable to cite Stranger Things as the best acted drama -- people really are just obsessed with those kids to a delusional degree.

By my count, Denzel Washington's speech was virtually the only one that didn't have at least an indirect reference to the ugliness of America's current national moment.

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Re: SAG Forecast

Postby Big Magilla » Sun Jan 29, 2017 10:11 pm

And the winners are Denzel Washington, Emma Stone, Mahershala Ali, Viola Davis and Hidden Figures.
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

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Re: SAG Forecast

Postby Sabin » Sun Jan 29, 2017 10:10 pm

...well...Best Actor just became a race.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: SAG Forecast

Postby Sabin » Sun Jan 29, 2017 7:07 pm

I'm pretty split between Hidden Figures or Moonlight. It could be either one. Moonlight is the more likely choice simply because they tend to favor the Best Picture nominees with more acting nominations but Hidden Figures is a Hollywood production and voting corresponded with its box office high water mark, so I lean slightly towards Hidden Figures.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: SAG Forecast

Postby Big Magilla » Sun Jan 29, 2017 5:08 pm

I'm predicting Portman for Best Actress and Hidden Figures (I almost wrote Hidden Fences) for Ensemble.

Portman is probably a lost cause, but Hidden Figures allows them to award two of the actors who are in Moonlight as well as a greater number of other actors.
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

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SAG Forecast

Postby Mister Tee » Sun Jan 29, 2017 4:21 pm

There's really not much to say here. The safest thing is to predict the chalk: Moonlight for Ensemble, Affleck/Stone/Ali/Davis for performances, and I guess Hacksaw Ridge for Stunt Ensemble.

That's not to say we couldn't see disagreements -- anything but Captain Fantastic could surprise in Ensemble, Washington could upset Affleck, Portman or Adams could be there in place of Stone, Bridges or (by some people's reckoning) Patel could block out Ali. Hard to see anyone topping Davis.

The point, though, is that any of these would constitute a surprise/reset expectations event, which is not the way to bet. Assume dull uniformity, and enjoy the jolt if it turns out otherwise.


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