Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Postby Sabin » Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:01 pm

I'll find some time to write about The Florida Project soon but it'll be unlikely I see anything I love more this year. BJ is right: it's Indie Spirit through and through, however, A24 doesn't really have a Moonlight-sized dog in the race. Right now, it would seem to be Lady Bird but if The Florida Project surprises people with how well it does and they nominate ten films this year...who knows? Stranger things have happened. I certainly won't be disappointed.

As for Willem DaFoe, he reminds me of Steve Buscemi in Ghost World*. It's not that he's doing anything remarkable, it's just we haven't seen him used to such effect before. This is the first time he's given a performance that can be described as "warm" and he's going to win a lot of critic's awards. I think working against DaFoe is his character doesn't have a fully shaded backstory. It does feel like you're watching Willem DaFoe run a motel. I don't mind that. I think voters are going to need more of an arc. That being said, I didn't think Mahershala Ali had enough to do in Moonlight to win so what do I know?

I think The Florida Project has an outside shot at a Best Picture nomination (0% chance of winning) and DaFoe has a reasonably solid shot at a Supporting Actor nomination. That race hasn't remotely taken shape yet so there's no reason to think otherwise. But if the film picks up some momentum, I think Brooklynn Prince also has a shot at Best Supporting Actress. That race is also pretty hard to pin down at this point, but if the front-runners are Laurie Metcalf and Allison Janney, then I could see Prince getting in the conversation. It's very difficult to separate the film from her performance. Is she just a kid playing a kid? Sure. In fact, if she's nominated this would be THE best example ever of a kid being nominated for being a kid. I wouldn't support that for reasons of: 1) she's the lead, and 2) she really is just being a kid. But it would be a pretty charming development. Bria Vinaite, as her horrible mother, is the film's real supporting actress. There were times where she struck me as just a little too amateurish in moments, but it's hard to imagine anyone else in the role.

* Which reminds me: is Steve Buscemi working anymore? I haven't seen him in anything in ages. Quick imdb search unsurprisingly reveals: yes, constantly.
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Postby Precious Doll » Sun Oct 08, 2017 12:53 am

MaxWilder wrote:
OscarGuy wrote:Octavia Spencer's second nomination proves that they'll nominate her even for giving the same performance (see also Christoph Waltz).

He was a Nazi in IG and a heroic figure in Django. I don't get this comment.


Could be because they are flip sides of the same coin. Funny how all his other performances are pretty much the same. I find his acting is so broad which suits the Tarantino universe well enough but find him completely out of his depth in anything that requires a more subtle performance.
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Postby MaxWilder » Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:35 am

OscarGuy wrote:Octavia Spencer's second nomination proves that they'll nominate her even for giving the same performance (see also Christoph Waltz).

He was a Nazi in IG and a heroic figure in Django. I don't get this comment.

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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Postby Sabin » Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:41 pm

flipp525 wrote
"The characters have similarities" is rather different from "she gives the same performance."


I didn't say that. I said her nominated performances aren't radically different from each other. And the only reason why I didn't say that about Julianne Moore is she wasn't good in The Hours. But even then, I would absolutely admit the two roles are very similar.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Postby OscarGuy » Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:24 pm

I loved her in both, but I don't see much emotional range difference between the two. Every performance is different by technical definition, but the story arcs and the way the character addresses each are certainly similar.
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Postby danfrank » Thu Sep 21, 2017 4:49 pm

Octavia Spencer clearly has range as an actress. She played a very different kind of character and gave a very different kind of performance in Fruitvale Station. I thought she should have been nominated for that.

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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Postby flipp525 » Thu Sep 21, 2017 4:29 pm

Sabin wrote:Well, she's playing a character who struggles with civil rights and is largely defined by her employer's lack of appreciation for the job she does. True, the characters she plays have differences for sure, but there are similarities.


"The characters have similarities" is rather different from "she gives the same performance."

It's almost like saying that Julianne Moore gave the same performance in The Hours as she did in Far From Heaven which you'd probably never say.
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Postby Sabin » Thu Sep 21, 2017 4:19 pm

Well, she's playing a character who struggles with civil rights and is largely defined by her employer's lack of appreciation for the job she does. True, the characters she plays have differences for sure, but there are similarities.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Postby flipp525 » Thu Sep 21, 2017 3:31 pm

In what universe was Spencer giving the same performance in The Help as she was in Hidden Figures? Those were two different characters.
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Postby OscarGuy » Thu Sep 21, 2017 3:17 pm

Octavia Spencer's second nomination proves that they'll nominate her even for giving the same performance (see also Christoph Waltz).
Wesley Lovell

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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Postby Sabin » Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:48 pm

The Original BJ wrote
Not that I think she's a major contender, but since some have thrown her name about as a Supporting Actress possibility, I wanted to note that Universal is currently promoting Allison Williams for Best LEAD Actress for Get Out. Not sure what the reasoning behind this is.

No doubt this is to separate her standing from Catherine Keener in the same film.

I thought she had a decent shot at making a showing at the critic's groups this year, which could have possibly translated to a nomination if there's a groundswell around 'Get Out.' Which absolutely could have happened. She possibly has a better shot at a Best Actress in a Comedy/Musical nomination but that pretty much ends her chances for a nomination in a category that is still very much coming together.

Quick word about 'The Shape of Water.' Some are predicting that it grabs nominations for Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress. Three acting nominations for a fantasy film would have to be unprecedented, right? That would indicate a very broad base of support. But right now, there doesn't seem to be consensus around Jenkins or Shannon. It could be either, both, or neither. And Octavia Spencer is being warmly received for this role but on the surface it doesn't seem to be radically different from her other two nominated performances.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Postby The Original BJ » Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:32 pm

Not that I think she's a major contender, but since some have thrown her name about as a Supporting Actress possibility, I wanted to note that Universal is currently promoting Allison Williams for Best LEAD Actress for Get Out. Not sure what the reasoning behind this is.

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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Postby ThePianist » Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:32 am

Reza wrote:
ThePianist wrote:Image


Oh wow, how did you put this image up?


Got it from fanart.tv

Really great source for film posters.

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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Postby Reza » Wed Sep 20, 2017 5:02 pm

ThePianist wrote:Image


Oh wow, how did you put this image up?

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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Postby ThePianist » Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:49 am

Image
Best Motion Picture of the Year
WINNER
The Florida Project
Nominees
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Last Flag Flying
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour*
Steve Carell - Last Flag Flying
Daniel Day Lewis - Phantom Thread
Jake Gyllenhaal - Stronger

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
Meryl Streep - The Post
Sally Hawkins - The Shape of a Water*
Francis McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing
Kate Winslet - Wonder Wheel

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Michael Stuhlbarg - Call Me By Your Name
Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project*
Bryan Cranston - Last Flag Flying
Michael Shannon - The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Hong Chau - Downsizing
Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird*
Melissa Leo - Novitiate
Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water

Best Achievement in Directing
Luca Guadagnino - Call Me By Your Name
Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Jordan Peele - Get Out
Sean Baker - The Florida Project
Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water*

Best Original Screenplay
The Florida Project - Sean Baker, Chris Bergoch*
Get Out - Jordan Peele
The Post - Liz Hannah, Josh Singer
The Shape of Water - Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - Martin McDonagh

Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name - James Ivory*
Darkest Hour - Anthony McCarten
The Disaster Artist - Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber
Last Flag Flying - Richard Linklater
Molly's Game - Aaron Sorkin
_________________________________________________________
Golden Globes:
Best Motion Picture - Drama
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
The Post
The Shape of Water*

Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
The Big Sick
Get Out*
Lady Bird
Last Flag Flying
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Actor - Drama
Timothée Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour*
Daniel Day-Lewis - Phantom Thread
Denzel Washington - Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Jake Gyllenhaal - Stronger

Best Actor - Comedy or Musical
Kumail Nanjiani - The Big Sick
James Franco - The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out
Bryan Cranston - Last Flag Flying
Steve Carell - Last Flag Flying*

Best Actress - Drama
Jessica Chastain - Molly's Game
Jennifer Lawrence - Mother!
Meryl Streep - The Post
Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water*
Kate Winslet - Wonder Wheel

Best Actress - Comedy or Musical
Emma Stone - Battle of the Sexes
Margot Robbie - I Tonya
Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
Francis McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing*
Judi Dench - Victoria and Abdul

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Michael Stuhlbarg - Call Me By Your Name
Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project*
Idris Elba - Molly's Game
Michael Shannon - The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Hong Chau - Downsizing
Allison Janney - I, Tonya*
Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water
Tatiana Maslany - Stronger

Best Director
Luca Guadagnino - Call Me By Your Name
Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Sean Baker - The Florida Project
Jordan Peele - Get Out
Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water*

Best Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name - James Ivory
Get Out - Jordan Peele
The Post - Liz Hannah, Josh Singer
The Shape of Water - Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor*
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - Martin McDonagh
_________________________________________________________

BAFTA:
Best Film
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
The Shape of Water*

Best Actor
Armie Hammer - Call Me By Your Name
Timothée Chalamet - Call Me by Your Name
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour*
Daniel Day Lewis - Phantom Thread
Jake Gyllenhaal - Stronger

Best Actress
Jennifer Lawrence - Mother!
Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water*
Francis McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Judi Dench - Victoria and Abdul
Kate Winslet - Wonder Wheel

Best Supporting Actor
Michael Stuhlbarg - Call Me By Your Name
Ben Mendelsohn - Darkest Hour
Mark Rylance - Dunkirk
Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project*
Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Supporting Actress
Holly Hunter - The Big Sick
Kristin Scott Thomas - Darkest Hour
Alison Janey - I, Tonya*
Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
Melissa Leo - Novitate

Best Original Screenplay
The Florida Project - Sean Baker, Chris Bergoch
Get Out - Jordan Peele
The Post - Liz Hannah, Josh Singer
The Shape of Water - Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor*
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - Martin McDonagh

Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name - James Ivory*
Darkest Hour - Anthony McCarten
The Death of Stalin - Armando Iannucci, David Schneider, Ian Martin
Last Flag Flying - Richard Linklater
Molly's Game - Aaron Sorkin

David Lean Award for Direction
Luca Guadagnino - Call Me By Your Name
Joe Wright - Darkest Hour
Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk*
Jordan Peele - Get Out
Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
_________________________________________________________

PGA:
Best Motion Picture
Call Me By Your Name
The Florida Project
Dunkirk
Get Out
Last Flag Flying
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water*
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Wonder Woman
_________________________________________________________

DGA:
Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Motion Pictures
Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird
Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water*
Luca Guadagnino - Call Me By Your Name
Sean Baker - The Florida Project
_________________________________________________________

SAG:
Best Actor
Daniel Day Lewis - Phantom Thread
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour*
Jake Gyllenhaal - Stronger
Steve Carell - Last Flag Flying
Timothée Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name

Best Actress
Annette Bening - Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
Francis McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Jessica Chastain - Molly’s Game
Kate Winslet - Wonder Wheel*
Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water

Best Supporting Actor
Bryan Cranston - Last Flag Flying*
Jason Mitchell - Mudbound
Michael Stuhlbarg - Call Me By Your Name
Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project

Best Supporting Actress
Allison Janey - I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird*
Melissa Leo - Novitiate
Holly Hunter - The Big Sick
Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water

Best Ensemble Cast
Call Me By Your Name
The Florida Project *
Get Out
The Post
The Shape of Water
_________________________________________________________
WGA:
Best Original Screenplay
Baby Driver - Edgar Wright
Get Out - Jordan Peele*
The Post - Liz Hannah, Josh Singer
The Shape of Water - Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - Martin McDonagh

Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name - James Ivory*
Darkest Hour - Anthony McCarten
The Disaster Artist - Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber
Last Flag Flying - Richard Linklater
Molly's Game - Aaron Sorkin
_________________________________________________________
Critic Awards
New York Film Critics Circle Award
Best Film: The Shape of Water
Best Actor: Timothée Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
Best Actress: Kate Winslet - Wonder Wheel
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo - Novitiate
Best Director: Sean Baker - The Florida Project
National Society of Film Critics
Best Film: The Florida Project
Best Actor: Timothée Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
Best Actress: Daniela Vega - A Fantastic Woman
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
Best Director: Luca Guadagnino - Call Me By Your Name
Critics' Choice Movie Awards
Best Film: The Shape of Water
Best Actor: Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Best Actress: Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water
Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
Best Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
Best Director: Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Best Film: Call Me By Your Name
Best Actor: Harry Dean Stanton - Lucky
Best Actress: Daniela Vega - A Fantastic Woman
Best Supporting Actor: Michael Stulhbarg - Call Me By Your Name
Best Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
Best Director: Sean Baker - The Florida Project


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