Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby The Original BJ » Sun Dec 03, 2017 3:13 pm

It's worth celebrating that this has been a year when a lot of good stuff has done well financially. As Mister Tee notes, Call Me By Your Name, Lady Bird, and Three Billboards have all been art-house hits, and I think both of this weekend's big limited releases have a lot of crossover potential. The Disaster Artist may have subject matter with cult appeal, but it's REALLY funny, in ways that I imagine will very much appeal to mainstream audiences. (Also, because the humor isn't really crude, it's the kind of thing people like my parents will find funny, even if they aren't the target audience for most broad comedies.) And The Shape of Water is a totally mainstream fantasy, with only the R rating limiting its audience -- I expect it will have very solid commercial prospects. And up ahead, I imagine a lot of liberal America will turn out to cheer for The Post.

Throw in the big hits from earlier in the year -- Get Out and Dunkirk, neither of which seemed destined for blockbuster numbers -- and we could potentially have an Oscar season where a ton of movies in contention were solid success stories.

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Mister Tee » Sun Dec 03, 2017 1:35 pm

Continuing the box-office-as-destiny topic (which will only run a few more weeks):

The biggest story on the weekend has to be The Disaster Artist, which opened to a PTA of over $64.000 at 19 Theatres! Considering the film's culty aspect, this PTA would have been a success at 2-4 venues; to achieve it in as wide a break as this is phenomenal. It's possible the film has a fairly low ceiling -- given its oddity -- but it doesn't look like it'll have any trouble hitting that ceiling. I'd say Franco jumps from potential best actor nominee to all-but-certain top three contender.

PTA is the story on the other new releases as well (the big studios held back this week, since this is a notoriously soft stretch). Clearly November/December is once again prime time for big critical/art-house commercial success -- five of the six biggest PTAs of the year have come in the past several weeks: Call Me by Your Name, Lady Bird, Three Billboards, now Disaster Artist and The Shape of Water (The Big Sick was the sole exception). Shape of Water did what it needed it: racked up an eye-popping opener of over $80,000 at two theatres. No telling how big-or-not it'll ultimately be, but this opening is enough to quiet the bloggers who've been, ridiculously, dropping it like a hot rock over the past week for its missing the NBR list.

Remember Wonder Wheel? The last piece of Amazon's disappointing Fall string, following Wonderstruck and Last Flag Flying. Someone at the studio really misread this film's potential, as it got some murderous reviews. I've heard murmurs that the post-Weinstein climate affected some of those reviews, with critics being heard to opine it was time Woody "got his" (plus Ronan Farrow's now a hero, so everything he ever said must suddenly be believed). Whatever the validity, the film's reviews were a definite minus, and this weekend's PTA of a mere $28,000 will do nothing to revive it and whatever waning hopes Kate Winslet had for lead actress consideration. In hindsight, opening in the standard Allen July/August slot might have served everyone better.

Everything else is status quo. Coco isn't PIXAR's biggest, but it's doing plenty well enough to coast to an animated feature win. Wonder remains a sleeper hit, with potential for a minor showing at the Oscars. Lady Bird, Three Billboards and Call Me by Your Name are doing good business by indie standards. All's right in that part of the world.

Next week, The Last Jedi (as if anyone doubts that film's success) and the bears-more-watching I, Tonya.

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Precious Doll » Sat Dec 02, 2017 12:01 am

The Original BJ wrote:Folks who have seen Wonder -- could Julia Roberts emerge as a Supporting Actress possibility? She's gotten some solid individual praise in those reviews, and her movie is now a genuine hit.


I think she would have an outside chance. If enough members watch their Wonder screeners, though Izabela Vidovic who plays her daughter has the better role. Wonder would also have a good chance of a SAG ensemble in a weaker year.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby The Original BJ » Fri Dec 01, 2017 6:44 pm

Folks who have seen Wonder -- could Julia Roberts emerge as a Supporting Actress possibility? She's gotten some solid individual praise in those reviews, and her movie is now a genuine hit.

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby flipp525 » Fri Dec 01, 2017 6:19 pm

Quick temperature prediction for Best Supporting Actress:

Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Precious Doll » Thu Nov 30, 2017 3:00 am

I went and saw Wonder today and I'm so glad that I did.

Sure, it's a bit schmaltz but it's so much better than that puerile trailer being used to sell the film is. It has many strengths and none of them would have worked had it not been so well written in the first place. Whilst Augie (Jacob Tremblay) is the central character and focus, most of the other characters in the film are so well drawn and have their own powerful dramatic arcs. Owen Wilson's dad is probably the least drawn one but he is fine.

Given it's commercial success I'd say an adapted nomination is looking very likely. Make-up, beautifully understated is also high likely. I'd love to to it get a cinematography nomination - it's absolutely gorgeously shot for a film that could have taken a very drab approach and thankfully doesn't.

Stephen Chbosky as a director certainly proves his first film was no fluke.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Sabin » Tue Nov 28, 2017 12:48 pm

anonymous1980 wrote
My pre-precursor predictions:


Interesting. You're predicting that Dunkirk will lose out on a directing nomination. I don't agree but what's your reasoning?

I pretty much agree with your choices, except...

Best Picture: right now, I don't have 'Mudbound' listed and only eight nominees. But he could for sure get in, as could 'The Big Sick.'

Best Director: I have Nolan instead of Guadanigno.

Best Actor: I have Daniel Kaluuya instead of Jake Gyllenhaal.

Best Actress: my picks. Even though Jessica Chastain and Emma Stone seem like they could be able to edge past Streep.

Best Supporting Actor: my pick, but who knows?

Best Supporting Actress: the loudest buzz I'm hearing about Mary J. Blige seems to be from people who haven't seen the film. Right now, I'm putting Lois Smith for 'Marjorie Prime,' but it could just as easily be Kristen Scott Thomas for 'Darkest Hour' or Lesley Manville for 'Phantom Thread' (which we'll know more about today).

Best Original Screenplay: there are six real contenders for Best Original Screenplay, with the fifth and sixth being 'The Post' and 'The Shape of Water.' I'm siding with the latter, but this leads me to believe that maybe 'The Big Sick' is on shakier ground than we think. Oh, I'll be so sad if Kumail Nanjiani and Emily Gordon lose on their nomination to 'The Post.'

Best Adapted Screenplay: yep, but I'm not totally sold on 'Wonder' yet. I think 'Logan' has a shot. I lose this one every year, but people were passionate about this film earlier in the year, it was the first screener to go out, and it has three very high profile creators on it: Michael Green, Scott Frank, and James Mangold.

Beyond that...

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
DARKEST HOUR
DUNKIRK
THE POST
THE SHAPE OF WATER
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
BEAUTY AND THE BEAST / “Evermore”
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME / “Mystery of Love”
COCO / “Remember Me”
DETROIT / “It Ain’t Fair”
THANK YOU FOR YOUR SERVICE / “Soldier”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
BLADE RUNNER 2049
DARKEST HOUR
DUNKIRK
MUDBOUND
THE SHAPE OF WATER

BEST FILM EDIING
DARKEST HOUR
DUNKIRK
GET OUT
THE SHAPE OF WATER
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
BEAUTY AND THE BEAST
BLADE RUNNER 2049
DARKEST HOUR
DUNKIRK
THE SHAPE OF WATER

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
BEAUTY AND THE BEAST
THE BEGUILED
DARKEST HOUR
THE GREATEST SHOWMAN
PHANTOM THREAD

BEST MAKEUP
DARKEST HOUR
LOGAN
THE SHAPE OF WATER

BEST SOUND MIXING
BLADE RUNNER 2049
DETROIT
DUNKIRK
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
WONDER WOMAN

BEST SOUND EFFECTS
BABY DRIVER
BLADE RUNNER 2049
DUNKIRK
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
WONDER WOMAN

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
BLADE RUNNER 2049
DUNKIRK
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES
WONDER WOMAN
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby anonymous1980 » Tue Nov 28, 2017 2:30 am

My pre-precursor predictions:

BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Mudbound
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri


BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Idris Elba, Molly's Game
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Alison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon, The Big Sick
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Liz Hannah and Josh Singer, The Post
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
Michael H. Weber and Scott Neustadter, The Disaster Artist
Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game
Dee Rees and Virgil Williams, Mudbound
Stephen Chbosky, Jack Thorne and Steve Conrad, Wonder

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby OscarGuy » Mon Nov 27, 2017 6:49 pm

Yes. McAvoy is not only eligible, but I believe screeners went out for Split.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby flipp525 » Mon Nov 27, 2017 6:04 pm

Is James McAvoy eligible for Split this year? I’m trying to think of some off-the-wall choices in Best Actor. I think the nebulousness of the category could very well result in a surprise nomination (or two).

Things like Andrew Garfield in Breathe feel like total non-starters to me.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Sabin » Mon Nov 27, 2017 4:10 pm

Point taken.

I think the New York Film Critics Circle is likely to Gary Oldman. Owen Gleiberman just wrote a review of Darkest Hour, all but endorsing him for an inevitable Oscar. If not Oldman, then I agree perhaps James Franco for The Disaster Artist. The more adventurous Los Angeles Film Critics Association will honor Robert Pattinson or Harry Dean Stanton.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby bizarre » Mon Nov 27, 2017 3:13 pm

I don't think we should expect a Dafoe nod in Lead at LAFCA - Keaton had the screentime of a support performance but his was the closest thing to a central character of that ensemble, and Arquette, whose positioning in that category makes more sense on paper, was in every section of that film. Dafoe's is absolutely a supporting performance I'd say.

Plus, LAFCA has a number of bubble contenders that suit its off-the-wall record who it could award if it doesn't go for the likes of Chalamet, Washington or Franco (the most likely of the 'leading contenders' for it to award, I think) - Kumail Nanjiani, Sam Elliott, Harry Dean Stanton, James McAvoy, Robert Pattinson, Daniel Kaluuya, Colin Farrell, Harris Dickinson, Menashe Lustig, Josh O'Connor, even foreign contenders like Nahuel Pérez Biscayart, Claes Bang or Aleksey Rozin.

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Greg » Mon Nov 27, 2017 12:51 pm

Precious Doll wrote:During the history of the Oscars only the following actors have one three or more awards:

Katharine Hepburn 4, Walter Brennan, Daniel Day Lewis, Jack Nicholson & Meryl Streep with 3 each.


Ingrid Bergman also won 3 Oscars.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Sabin » Mon Nov 27, 2017 11:12 am

I've said this elsewhere, but occasionally when alternatives fail to present themselves in a leading category, a supporting performance gets elevated to lead with critics. This happened in 2014 when Patricia Arquette edged out over Julianne Moore at LAFCAA and this happened in 2015 when Michael Keaton beat TWO supporting contenders: Mark Ruffalo for Spotlight and Jacob Tremblay for Room. It wouldn't surprise me if the NYFCC honored Willem DaFoe as Best Leading Actor for The Florida Project.


Mister Tee wrote
Wonder continues to do well, and could get that adapted screenplay nod I suggested, given the non-competition.

Writing that screenplay are Steve Conrad and Stephen Chbosky, two fairly respected screenwriters who have thus far evaded a nomination. I'm not yet sold on an Oscar nomination, but this film is definitely on the bubble. A WGA nom is very likely.

Okri wrote
The one thing I’ve been trying to figure out is if critics settle on an advocacy pick of sorts. I’ve started this post so many times I may have actually posted it already, but let’s try again.

I mention that in tandem with Huppert last year. Now, Nathaniel Rogers over at The Film Experience predicted Huppert quite early in the Oscar race and basically stuck with it for the season. He pointed out that SPC was actually mounting a visible campaign and she seemed entirely game for it.

I don’t think the critics do that unless she actually has a shot at the Oscar nomination – even the BFCA predicted her and this was still early before she became central to the race.
I'm not sure I agree with you on that last part. LAFCAA is notorious for choosing performances that have all but zero shot at an Oscar nomination. Jeong-hie Yun for Poetry, Hye-ja Kim for Mother, Niels Arestrupt for A Prophet, Yolande Moreau for Seraphine, Vlad Ivanov for 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days, Luminita Gheorghiu for The Death of Mr. Larareszu. Some of these, I believe, were ineligible.

But do critics settle on an advocacy pick or so early on? If these performers have gone their entire career without reward, I think the answer is a resounding yes. I don't think it has to do with an Oscar campaign as much as every film critic is at least half a historian. They often try to correct past mistakes.

Precious Doll wrote
Portman had the misfortune of giving that great performance in Jackie the same year that Huppert had the double whammy of Elle & Things to Come. Given Huppert won most of the awards, had never won a major critics award, I feel that career recognition played a part in her sweep.

I have no doubt this contributed heavily. However, I'm not sure it came entirely at Portman's expense. The runner up at LAFCAA was Rebecca Hall for Christine, at NSFCA was Annette Bening and Sandra Huller, and Ruth Negga at NYFCC. I don't get the sense that Natalie Portman was as much the critic's darling for Jackie as we think. Or at least, the critic's first choice.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Precious Doll » Mon Nov 27, 2017 6:24 am

Okri wrote:The one thing I’ve been trying to figure out is if critics settle on an advocacy pick of sorts. I’ve started this post so many times I may have actually posted it already, but let’s try again.



a) That Portman, despite amazing reviews, couldn’t win any major critics prizes. She, of course, took a couple of the next level down awards (Chicago, for example) but despite not winning the critics prizes for Black Swan, they didn’t go for her.



The former is odd in a couple ways, but mainly – critics groups don’t generally mind repeating themselves. Streep won in 2009 and 2011 from New York. Day-Lewis did in 2007 and 2012 from New York and National Society. And it’s not as if they’d be repeating themselves for Portman. A similar thing happened to Cate Blanchett the year prior. Though she ran the table for Blue Jasmine, her career redefining work in Carol couldn’t get her a seat at the table with the critics.



Second go...

Great post Okri.

Portman had the misfortune of giving that great performance in Jackie the same year that Huppert had the double whammy of Elle & Things to Come. Given Huppert won most of the awards, had never won a major critics award, I feel that career recognition played a part in her sweep. The Academy clearly had didn't care for Elle. It didn't receive nominations for Screenplay Adaptation, Foreign Language Film or Director that it clearly should have but I get the impression that like Brian De Palma the Academy would rather ignore Paul Verhoeven.

Blanchett suffered the same fate the year before with Carol in that Charlotte Rampling won LA & NSFC. Her long and distinguished career would have helped. Ironically the performances by Huppert, Portman, Rampling & Blanchett would all make very worthy winners - it's really just apples and oranges there. It's not like any group gave Jessica Chastian one for Miss Sloane over someone else's much better performance.

I think one of the most interesting comparisons with critics awards and the Oscars like with the New York Film Critics. This primarily has to to do with the fact the New York have been giving out awards since 1934, not that long after the Oscars started, though it should be noted that New York didn't start giving supporting awards until 1969.

During the history of the Oscars only the following actors have one three or more awards:

Katharine Hepburn 4, Walter Brennan, Daniel Day Lewis, Jack Nicholson & Meryl Streep with 3 each.

New York on the other hand have been very generous to a larger number of actors:

Jack Nicholson 6, Daniel Day Lewis & Meryl Streep 5 each, Robert De Niro & Sissy Spacek 4 each, Ingrid Bergman, Julie Christie, Deborah Kerr, Burt Lancaster, Laurence Olivier, Liv Ullmann & Joanne Woodward 3 each.

The critics clearly don't have a problem rewarding the same people over gain if they feel they deserve it.

On the other hand the number of coloured winners from the New York Film Critics is way below the number that have one Oscars, though the New York critics are more generous to foreign language performances.

I do think that previous unrewarded performances are sometimes taken into consideration when awarding by film critics groups and 'career' recognition can play a role. On the other hand these reasons are far more prevalent with the Academy.

I can appreciate, sight unseen, Gary Oldman having appeal for critics groups but there is so much more out there and I'd much rather see a deserving performance win than a deserving career.

Oh, and I still think Cynthia Nixon is going to win New York or NSFC or both for A Quiet Passion. Won't give her any traction with the Academy though.
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