Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby flipp525 » Sun Oct 01, 2017 5:07 pm

I'm not sure of its eligibility for awards consideration, but I just watched the just-released film adaptation of Stephen King's Gerald's Game on Netflix and Carla Gugino is really excellent in the lead role turning in a ferocious performance. The Guardian calls her work a "barn-storming showcase" in their review this weekend. The adaptation is extremely faithful to what I had always considered an unfilmable King book; director Mike Flanagan pulls it off beautifully.

There's a small moment of overlap with a character from Dolores Clairborne that I was surprised made it into the film from the source material. And there are most obviously shades of Misery in the mise-en-scene.

Best Actress is obviously too crowded to make room for her, but I'd rate Gugino's performance as one of the best lead female performances of the year. Bruce Greenwood is also excellent in the titular role.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Precious Doll » Fri Sep 29, 2017 6:35 pm

Reza wrote:
flipp525 wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:The real shame was that she and Judy Davis were denied nominations last year for The Dressmaker.

Yeah, you keep saying that. I thought The Dressmaker was fine but Winslet did not deserve any recognition for that (perhaps a Comedy Golden Globe nomination, IF THAT). And Judy Davis was just pure hamola.


I totally agree.

The Australian Film Critics went beserk giving the film many nominations with awards going to Winslet, Davis and Hugo Weaving.


Only because the film was a big hit in Australia and there probably wasn't anything else to give awards to given that the Australian film industry is pretty much in the toilet and has been for some time now.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Reza » Fri Sep 29, 2017 4:31 pm

flipp525 wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:The real shame was that she and Judy Davis were denied nominations last year for The Dressmaker.

Yeah, you keep saying that. I thought The Dressmaker was fine but Winslet did not deserve any recognition for that (perhaps a Comedy Golden Globe nomination, IF THAT). And Judy Davis was just pure hamola.


I totally agree.

The Australian Film Critics went beserk giving the film many nominations with awards going to Winslet, Davis and Hugo Weaving.

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Mister Tee » Fri Sep 29, 2017 1:50 pm

Just for the record: I've heard nothing to indicate Winslet is anything but a lead, so this is idle speculation.

Till we get the actual reviews in a week or two, she's just a rumor in any case.

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Sabin » Fri Sep 29, 2017 1:34 pm

Big Magilla wrote
Well, my list isn't exactly fevered, but I do have one that includes Last Flag Flying I updated for CinemaSight's main page before the reviews came out. I was about to replace it on the list with Blade Runner 2049 when I read the less than underwhelming reviews for that. Maybe I should bring back Victoria and Abdul!

No, but Best Adapted Screenplay is a very weak slate right now. The film was written by Lee Hall, who's a previous nominee for Billy Elliot. So, perhaps it could be a placeholder in that lineup. It probably has as good a chance as Last Flag Flying.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby ThePianist » Fri Sep 29, 2017 1:21 pm

Big Magilla wrote:Maybe I should bring back Victoria and Abdul!


Not happening.

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Big Magilla » Fri Sep 29, 2017 1:02 pm

The Dressmaker was only one of three 2016 films that I recommended to people that I received a 100% positive feedback from everyone on. The others were Hidden Figures and Sing Street.

Judy Davis was over-the-top, but also very touching at times, unlike her ill-conceived Hedda Hopper in Feud: Bette and Joan in which she was pure ham. Even in that, though, she was better than Helen Mirren's sourpuss interpretation of Hopper in Trumbo.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby flipp525 » Fri Sep 29, 2017 12:34 pm

Big Magilla wrote:The real shame was that she and Judy Davis were denied nominations last year for The Dressmaker.

Yeah, you keep saying that. I thought The Dressmaker was fine but Winslet did not deserve any recognition for that (perhaps a Comedy Golden Globe nomination, IF THAT). And Judy Davis was just pure hamola.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Sabin » Fri Sep 29, 2017 12:02 pm

The Original BJ wrote
As of right now, Amazon's FYC campaign is for Lead Actress for Winslet.

Didn't know that. A quick perusal of their 2017 filmography reveals they have no Best Actress heavy, so they're likely to stick with their guns. The same quick perusal also reveals that they no heavy, period. Their only hope for a 'Manchester by the Sea' is if people are completely floored by 'Wonder Wheel.' And if they're not, then it's 'The Big Sick.'

'The Lost City of Z,' 'The Wall,' 'The Big Sick,' 'City of Ghosts,' 'Landline,' 'The Only Living Boy in New York,' 'Crown Heights,' 'Brad's Status,' 'Wonderstruck,' 'Last Flag Flying,' and 'Wonder Wheel.' On paper, this looks like a huge year for Amazon. In reality, it's a perfectly respectable group of films that will make them close to no money.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Big Magilla » Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:56 am

flipp525 wrote:Didn't they try to whore Kate Winslet into the supporting race for The Reader and the Academy was not having it? I obviously don't know the dominance of her role in Wonder Wheel, but members might already be wise to that particular trick from her (and her studio).

I am already here for the battle of the TV moms - Allison Janney versus Laurie Metcalfe - in that race. True supporting performances and character actresses competing for an award that was originally designed to honor them.

I have no opinion on the proper placement for Winslet this year if there is one. I've already replaced her on my list with Saoirse Ronan, but I still can see both sides of the argument on The Reader.

She was gone for a large part of the film in which she was a secondary character to the one shared by David Kross and Ralph Fiennes. On the other hand, she was a much bigger star than Patricia Neal was when she won her lead Oscar for a similarly sized role in Hud.

The real shame was that she and Judy Davis were denied nominations last year for The Dressmaker.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Big Magilla » Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:50 am

Mister Tee wrote:
Reza wrote:Might Blade Runner 2049 replace Last Flag Flying on the list?

Well, no film prior to release has a place on any "list" except those in the fevered imaginations of Oscar bloggers.


Well, my list isn't exactly fevered, but I do have one that includes Last Flag Flying I updated for CinemaSight's main page before the reviews came out. I was about to replace it on the list with Blade Runner 2049 when I read the less than underwhelming reviews for that. Maybe I should bring back Victoria and Abdul!
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby flipp525 » Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:44 am

Didn't they try to whore Kate Winslet into the supporting race for The Reader and the Academy was not having it? I obviously don't know the dominance of her role in Wonder Wheel, but members might already be wise to that particular trick from her (and her studio).

I am already here for the battle of the TV moms - Allison Janney versus Laurie Metcalfe - in that race. True supporting performances and character actresses competing for an award that was originally designed to honor them.
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."



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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Big Magilla » Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:42 am

The Original BJ wrote:
Sabin wrote:Random thought: obviously nobody's seen it yet but Wonder Wheel is apparently a series of four interlocking stories of four peoples' lives. What if they push Kate Winslet for supporting rather than lead?


As of right now, Amazon's FYC campaign is for Lead Actress for Winslet.

Campaigns can change, so it could happen. If her role is part of an ensemble she's liable to come up short in a Best Actress race with so many indisputable leads.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby The Original BJ » Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:33 am

Sabin wrote:Random thought: obviously nobody's seen it yet but Wonder Wheel is apparently a series of four interlocking stories of four peoples' lives. What if they push Kate Winslet for supporting rather than lead?


As of right now, Amazon's FYC campaign is for Lead Actress for Winslet.

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Mister Tee » Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:30 am

Reza wrote:Might Blade Runner 2049 replace Last Flag Flying on the list?

Well, no film prior to release has a place on any "list" except those in the fevered imaginations of Oscar bloggers. But let's put it this way:

Last Flag Flying landed with a thud yesterday and seems unlikely to make much if any showing in the annual critics' prizes, and there's little evidence it will do much with the Academy, either.

Blade Runner 2049 isn't getting exactly the unanimous critical response of Mad Max: Fury Road -- though there are a number of rapturous reactions, there are also some "way-too-long-and-empty" responses. But it currently sits at a fully respectable 85 on Metacritic (and 97% on Rotten Tomatoes), which is a bit above Villeneuve's best picture contender last year. It appears certain to clean up below the line, getting every tech nod except maybe costumes (and it may be in line to win at least visual effects and production design -- the two categories where the original was robbed). Film/director will probably depend on the year's overall quality (right now, it looks like a tight competition, but, should the late crowd of The Post/PTA disappoint, there might be room) and the box-office. Fandango reports advance sales in excess of The Martian, but there's no telling if the film will hold up as well as the Scott film did.

Because I've been a fan of Villenueve's work till now, I'm cautiously hopeful for the film. I will say it's weird to read a few critics in my age group express disappointment the film doesn't match the Masterpiece level of the original -- since I remember the original being viewed as a great-looking semi-dud in its day.


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