Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Sabin » Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:18 am

Random thought: obviously nobody's seen it yet but Wonder Wheel is apparently a series of four interlocking stories of four peoples' lives. What if they push Kate Winslet for supporting rather than lead?
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby ThePianist » Fri Sep 29, 2017 10:59 am

Possibly. It all depends If the critical reception is overwhelmingly great. As of now, tech noms seem assured.

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Reza » Fri Sep 29, 2017 10:26 am

Might Blade Runner 2049 replace Last Flag Flying on the list?

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Reza » Fri Sep 29, 2017 10:24 am

Blade Runner 2049 has so far not been in any of the discussions here. Now that the reviews are out could it break into the list for Best Picture?

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby ThePianist » Thu Sep 28, 2017 3:36 pm

'Last Flag Flying' currently has a 68/100 on MC with 7 reviews. Cranston and Fishburne seem out with the reception they've been getting, Steve Carell is an overwhelming long shot even in a weak race like this, and Best Picture doesn't seem to be happening.


'Adapted Screenplay' is my only prediction at this point. (Considering the Adapted Race seems a bit dire.)
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Sabin » Thu Sep 28, 2017 12:16 pm

Updated my choices. Way too much time to kill this morning.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Precious Doll » Thu Sep 28, 2017 8:05 am

I forgot about Suicide Squad and though I found the film loathsome she was the best and only entertaining aspect of it. I just didn't realise that she was so well know and consider a major player in Hollywood. Well if her work the Scorsese & Suicide Squad are any indication she has a bright future ahead of her. It's always harder to be good in bad film than be good in a good film.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby OscarGuy » Thu Sep 28, 2017 6:44 am

Precious, Wolf of Wall Street brought her attention, but Suicide Squad is why she's suddenly recognizable to everyone. She was also in the Tina Fey flop Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, cameo'd in The Big Short (the bathtub scene), the flop Legend of Tarzan, and will be in this year's releases I, Tonya, Goodbye Christopher Robin, and Terminal, and next year's releases Peter Rabbit (animated, so VO), Mary Queen of Scots (as Elizabeth I), the Manson family project, Marian (the Robin Hood film), Suicide Squad 2, and its spinoffs Harley Quinn vs. Joker and Gotham City Sirens. They clearly think she's got the makings of a star, though the two other films she flopped in last year don't help her reputation.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby ThePianist » Thu Sep 28, 2017 5:58 am

Sabin wrote:BEST ACTOR
'THE HERO / Sam Elliot'


Just let it go man. Chalamet is happening.

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Precious Doll » Thu Sep 28, 2017 1:45 am

Sabin wrote:
flipp525 wrote
Sabin, I like your Margot Robbie prediction. She's someone I've been thinking about the past few days as someone people might be overlooking.

Margot Robbie is a giant star. It might not seem like it but within the industry they're trying to package her into everything. She's a sex symbol who is playing trashy. That sounds like a good bet. And I, Tonya may not seem like a hot ticket now but I imagine it will be. It's a story we all know but haven't thought about in forever. She might actually be a safer bet than Saoirse Ronan or Jessica Chastain.


I didn't know she was even a star. Apart from that Scorsese film about Wall Street I don't think I have ever seen her in anything else. Then I am finding what passes as cinema these days less interesting year after year.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Sabin » Wed Sep 27, 2017 11:07 pm

flipp525 wrote
Sabin, I like your Margot Robbie prediction. She's someone I've been thinking about the past few days as someone people might be overlooking.

Margot Robbie is a giant star. It might not seem like it but within the industry they're trying to package her into everything. She's a sex symbol who is playing trashy. That sounds like a good bet. And I, Tonya may not seem like a hot ticket now but I imagine it will be. It's a story we all know but haven't thought about in forever. She might actually be a safer bet than Saoirse Ronan or Jessica Chastain.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby flipp525 » Wed Sep 27, 2017 8:58 pm

Sabin, I like your Margot Robbie prediction. She's someone I've been thinking about the past few days as someone people might be overlooking. There seem to be more actresses with critical acclaim than there are nomination spots this year (perhaps the understatement of the season), so other factors are going to come into play more than usual. Things such as narrative, name recognition, and popularity within the business. Margot Robbie is a young, beautiful, rising star who has apparently "de-glamorized" herself for I, Tonya. She is precisely the type of actress the Academy loves to recognize, even if her reviews aren't as strong as some of the other contenders.

There are cases every year where a performance looks like it's going to be an also-ran (I'm thinking Ruth Negga last year for Loving) and the various awards bodies go for it anyway. Robbie as Tonya Harding is the type of situation that is firmly within the Academy's normal range of behavior. And because her co-star (Allison Janney) is being touted as a potential front-runner for Best Supporting Actress, people will definitely see her performance.

I would also cite Amy Adams pulling through via a solid Jennifer Lawrence spot in American Hustle as historical precedent. That was a competitive year for Best Actress as well yet not nearly as much as this year.

So, basically, what I'm saying is that completely writing Margot Robbie off at this stage would be a tad bit foolish.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Big Magilla » Wed Sep 27, 2017 2:34 pm

I concur with the Close scheduling. I guess I'll have to see the performance to believe how the film is, though. On paper, it sounds like an old TV movie.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Mister Tee » Wed Sep 27, 2017 1:44 pm

Sony Classics has picked up The Wife and scheduled it for 2018. A move I fully endorse; why waste Close's best reviews in decades in this year's pile-up? She could be a clear winner next year.

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Big Magilla » Wed Sep 27, 2017 1:22 pm

Sam Elliott for that maudlin Oscar bait? No Thanks! Give the sentimental nod to Harry Dean Stanton or avoid sentiment in the Best Actor race altogether.
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