Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Sabin » Wed Sep 27, 2017 1:03 pm

I’m going to take a stab. There's plenty out that we haven't seen yet. I suppose it's possible that Blade Runner 2049 is great, but it looks more like Skyfall than Arrival. It seems to me, there's really just: Last Flag Flying, Phantom Thread, The Post, Wonder Wheel, and whatever the new Eastwood is called. I'm just going to go on a gut feeling for each of them.
(NOTE: a few changes after Last Flag Flying screening/092817)



BEST PICTURE
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME / 7
DARKEST HOUR / 13
DUNKIRK / 7
GET OUT / 2
THE POST / 7
THE SHAPE OF WATER / 11
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI / 4
WONDER WHEEL / 4

BEST DIRECTOR
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME / Luca Guadagnino
DARKEST HOUR / Joe Wright
DUNKIRK / Christopher Nolan
THE POST / Steven Spielberg
THE SHAPE OF WATER / Guillermo Del Toro

BEST ACTOR
DARKEST HOUR / Gary Oldman
THE HERO / Sam Elliot
LUCKY / Harry Dean Stanton
PHANTOM THREAD / Daniel Day-Lewis
STRONGER / Jake Gyllenhaal

BEST ACTRESS
I, TONYA / Margot Robbie
THE POST / Meryl Streep
THE SHAPE OF WATER / Sally Hawkins
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI / Frances McDormand
WONDER WHEEL / Kate Winslet

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME / Armie Hammer
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME / Michael Stuhlberg
DARKEST HOUR / Ben Mendelsohn
THE FLORIDA PROJECT / Willem DaFoe
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI / Sam Rockwell

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
THE BIG SICK / Holly Hunter
DARKEST HOUR / Kristen Scott Thomas
I, TONYA / Allison Janney
LADY BIRD / Laurie Metcalf
PHANTOM THREAD / Someone

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
DARKEST HOUR
GET OUT
THE SHAPE OF WATER
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
WONDER WHEEL

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
LOGAN
MOLLY’S GAME
MUDBOUND
THE POST

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
DARKEST HOUR
DUNKIRK
THE POST
THE SHAPE OF WATER
WONDERSTRUCK

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
BEAUTY AND THE BEAST
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
DETROIT
THE GREATEST SHOWMAN
THANK YOU FOR YOUR SERVICE

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
BLADE RUNNER 2049
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
DARKEST HOUR
DUNKIRK
THE SHAPE OF WATER

BEST FILM EDITING
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
DARKEST HOUR
DUNKIRK
THE POST
THE SHAPE OF WATER

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
BLADE RUNNER 2049
DARKEST HOUR
THE GREATEST SHOWMAN
THE POST
THE SHAPE OF WATER

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
THE BEGUILED
DARKEST HOUR
THE GREATEST SHOWMAN
PHANTOM THREAD
WONDER WHEEL

BEST MAKEUP
DARKEST HOUR
THE GREATEST SHOWMAN
LOGAN

BEST SOUND MIXING
BLADE RUNNER 2049
DARKEST HOUR
DUNKIRK
THE SHAPE OF WATER
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI

BEST SOUND EFFECTS
BLADE RUNNER 2049
DETROIT
DUNKIRK
THE SHAPE OF WATER
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
BLADE RUNNER 2049
GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY, VOL. 2
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
THE SHAPE OF WATER
WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES
Last edited by Sabin on Thu Sep 28, 2017 2:25 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby ThePianist » Wed Sep 27, 2017 6:08 am

flipp525 wrote:The Phantom Thread keeps making me think it's another Star Wars movie. Awful title.


That hack Feinberg called it 'Ghost Thread.'

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby flipp525 » Wed Sep 27, 2017 5:02 am

The Phantom Thread keeps making me think it's another Star Wars movie. Awful title.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby flipp525 » Wed Sep 27, 2017 5:00 am

Feinberg rated actors who did his podcast higher on his list. I saw this a couple days ago and thought it was a good overview of every possibility out there but it's not much to take seriously as has been pointed out below.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Big Magilla » Wed Sep 27, 2017 4:43 am

Some of these are ludicrous. Gal Gadot for Wonder Woman, anyone?

Nice to see he has Lois Smith down as a long shot for supporting actress for Marjorie Prime. This is the first time I've seen anyone even mention her.

Lesley Manville would make an interesting nominee. She was Gary Oldman's first wife and mother of his oldest child. But why are they still referring to The Phantom Thread as Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Film? Did they take back the title?
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby ThePianist » Wed Sep 27, 2017 3:22 am

Sabin wrote:Scott Feinberg posted a pretty substantial rundown of the categories.

Best Director
'POSSIBILITES'
Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name)


Best Actor
'FRONTRUNNERS'
Robert Pattinson (Good Time)


Best Supporting Actor
'FRONTRUNNERS'
Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)
Mark Rylance (Dunkirk)


Best Supporting Actress
'FRONTRUNNERS'
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
Andrea Riseborough (Battle of the Sexes)


What.

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Precious Doll » Wed Sep 27, 2017 2:29 am

Gee, is there anyone Feinberg hasn't mentioned. Some of these are clearly not getting in.

Nicole Kidman for The The Beguiled?? Does he have a hard, I mean, soft spot for her? She was beyond dreadful in the film. In and out of accents the whole way through (a common occurrence for Ms. Kidman), parading about wearing a torpedo bra under her period costume, and a face so worked over she looks like a mannequin. Since when did anyone even look or dress like that during the Civil War? At least in The Killing of a Sacred Deer she is playing a stepford wife type so the surgery, botox and rubber tits fit appropriately.

Richard Gere for Norman. No way. Aside that his is apparently no very popular in Hollywood, the film sank and at best is an interesting failure.

Mother! was DOA. Ditto Okja. Ditto Wonderstruck.

As enjoyable as Good Time is and as good as Robert Pattinson is in it the film is too removed for the Academy's sensibilities. It would have needed a major award at Cannes (Palm or Actor) to have had any sort of chance and even then it would be a long-shot.

Mind you, Wind River has been quietly doing pretty good business at the box office and Jeremy Renner could sneak in in a weak year so he might be on to something there.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Sabin » Wed Sep 27, 2017 1:00 am

Scott Feinberg posted a pretty substantial rundown of the categories. I'll only post the top six.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/ ... re-1042260

Best Picture
FRONTRUNNERS
Dunkirk (Warner Bros.)
The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight)
Darkest Hour (Focus Features)
The Florida Project (A24)
Lady Bird (A24)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight)
Get Out (Universal)
Battle of the Sexes (Fox Searchlight)
Call Me By Your Name (Sony Classics)
The Big Sick (Amazon)

MAJOR THREATS
Detroit (Annapurna)
Molly's Game (STX)
Okja (Netflix)
I, Tonya (Neon)
Wonder Woman (Warner Bros.)
War for the Planet of the Apes (Fox)

POSSIBILITIES
Mudbound (Netflix)
Wind River (The Weinstein Co.)
Downsizing (Paramount)
Breathe (Bleecker Street)
Roman J. Israel, Esq. (Columbia)
The Current War (The Weinstein Co.)
First They Killed My Father (Netflix)

LONG SHOTS
Mother! (Paramount)
Victoria & Abdul (Focus Features)
Stronger (Roadside Attractions)
Baby Driver (Sony)
Wonderstruck (Amazon)
Marshall (Open Road)
Thank You for Your Service (Universal)
Crown Heights (Amazon)

STILL TO COME (alphabetical)
The 15:17 to Paris (Warner Bros.)
All the Money in the World (Sony)
Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros.)
The Greatest Showman (Fox)
Last Flag Flying (Amazon)
The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) (Netflix)
Phantom Thread (Focus Features)
The Post (Fox)
Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney)
Wonder Wheel (Amazon)

STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)
Hostiles


Best Director
FRONTRUNNERS
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Joe Wright (Darkest Hour)
Jordan Peele (Get Out)
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)

MAJOR THREATS
Patty Jenkins (Wonder Woman)
Sean Baker (The Florida Project)
Aaron Sorkin (Molly's Game)
Kathryn Bigelow (Detroit)
Alexander Payne (Downsizing)
Bong-joon Ho (Okja)
Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

POSSIBILITES
Matt Reeves (War for the Planet of the Apes)
Dee Rees (Mudbound)
Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name)
Valerie Faris and Jonathan Dayton (Battle of the Sexes)
Craig Gillespie (I, Tonya)
Todd Haynes (Wonderstruck)
Alfonso Gomez-Rejon (The Current War)
Angelina Jolie (First They Killed My Father)

LONG SHOTS
Darren Aronofksy (Mother!)
Dan Gilroy (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)
Stephen Frears (Victoria & Abdul)
Michael Showalter (The Big Sick)
Sofia Coppola (The Beguiled)
Edgar Wright (Baby Driver)
Andy Serkis (Breathe)
David Gordon Green (Stronger)
Reginald Hudlin (Marshall)
Jason Hall (Thank You for Your Service)

STILL TO COME (alphabetical)
Woody Allen (Wonder Wheel)
Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
Noah Baumbach (The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected))
Clint Eastwood (The 15:17 to Paris)
Michael Gracey (The Greatest Showman)
Rian Johnson (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)
Richard Linklater (Last Flag Flying)
Ridley Scott (All the Money in the World) — podcast
Steven Spielberg (The Post) — podcast
Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049)

STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)
Scott Cooper (Hostiles)


Best Actor
FRONTRUNNERS
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)
Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)
Robert Pattinson (Good Time)

MAJOR THREATS
James Franco (Disaster Artist)
Andrew Garfield (Breathe) — podcast
Jeremy Renner (Wind River)
Matt Damon (Downsizing)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Current War) — podcast
Richard Gere (Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer)

POSSIBILITIES
Andy Serkis (War for the Planet of the Apes)
Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick) — podcast
Donald Sutherland (The Leisure Seeker)
Daniel Kaluya (Get Out)
Sam Elliot (The Hero)

LONG SHOTS
Algee Smith (Detroit)
Chadwick Boseman (Marshall)
Nicholas Hoult (Rebel in the Rye)
Liam Neeson (Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House)
Jason Clarke (Mudbound)
Jason Clarke (Chappaquiddick)
Ali Fazal (Victoria & Abdul)

STILL TO COME (alphabetical)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Tom Hanks (The Post)
Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman)
Adam Sandler (The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected))

STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)
Christian Bale (Hostiles)



Best Actress
FRONTRUNNERS
Jessica Chastain (Molly's Game) — podcast
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)

MAJOR THREATS
Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)
Diane Kruger (In the Fade)
Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul)
Jennifer Lawrence (Mother!)
Annette Bening (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool)

POSSIBILITIES
Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project)
Gal Gadot (Wonder Woman)
Sally Hawkins (Maudie)
Carey Mulligan (Mudbound)
Rachel Weisz (My Cousin Rachel)

LONG SHOTS
Helen Mirren (The Leisure Seeker) — podcast
Nicole Kidman (The Beguiled) — podcast
Salma Hayek (Beatriz at Dinner)
Daniela Vega (A Fantastic Woman)
Sareum Srey Moch (First They Killed My Father)
Florence Pugh (Lady Macbeth)

STILL TO COME (alphabetical)
Meryl Streep (The Post) — podcast
Michelle Williams (All the Money in the World)
Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel) — podcast

STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTOR (alphabetical)
Glenn Close (The Wife)


Best Supporting Actor
FRONTRUNNERS
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)
Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name)
Mark Rylance (Dunkirk)

MAJOR THREATS
Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)
Ray Romano (The Big Sick)
John Boyega (Detroit)
Will Poulter (Detroit)
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
Jason Mitchell (Mudbound)
Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Okja)

POSSIBILITIES
Patrick Stewart (Logan)
Kevin Costner (Molly's Game)
Tracy Letts (Lady Bird)
Ben Mendelsohn (Darkest Hour) — podcast
Garrett Hedlund (Mudbound)
Michael Shannon (The Current War) — podcast
Sterling K. Brown (Marshall) — podcast

LONG SHOTS
Idris Elba (Molly's Game)
John Lithgow (Beatriz at Dinner)
Kevin Spacey (Rebel in the Rye)
Anthony Mackie (Detroit)
Javier Bardem (Mother!)
Kevin Hart (The Upside)
Christoph Waltz (Downsizing)

STILL TO COME (alphabetical)
Jim Belushi (Wonder Wheel)
Steve Carell (Last Flag Flying)
Bryan Cranston (Last Flag Flying)
Laurence Fishburne (Last Flag Flying)
Dustin Hoffman (The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected))
Kevin Spacey (All the Money in the World)
Lakeith Stanfield (Crown Heights)


Best Supporting Actress
FRONTRUNNERS
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
Andrea Riseborough (Battle of the Sexes)

MAJOR THREATS
Melissa Leo (Novitiate)
Hong Chau (Downsizing)
Bria Vinaite (The Florida Project)
Kristin Scott Thomas (Darkest Hour)
Claire Foy (Breathe)

POSSIBILITIES
Tatiana Maslany (Stronger)
Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)
Julianne Moore (Wonderstruck)
Millicent Simmonds (Wonderstruck)

LONG SHOTS
Tiffany Hadish (Girls Trip)
Michelle Pfeiffer (Mother!)
Katherine Waterston (The Current War)
Lois Smith (Marjorie Prime)

STILL TO COME (alphabetical)
Carrie Fisher (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)
Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread)
Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
Elizabeth Marvel (The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected))
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby ThePianist » Tue Sep 26, 2017 8:01 am

AW Users are blowing up about Carell in Lead, and Cranston in Supporting, due to the recent post by Variety.
Image
(Knew this all along tho.)

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Big Magilla » Mon Sep 25, 2017 2:35 pm

Marjorie Prime is another film that could benefit from screeners if properly marketed.

Lois Smith has a snowball's chance in Hell of being nominated for Best Actress, but since she's fourth billed in the ensemble cast, a supporting nod and win would not be out of the question. The trailer's reference to Black Mirror Her could help with younger audiences that might not be otherwise inclined to give it a spin.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Mister Tee » Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:42 pm

Both those limited release numbers fall in the category of maybe yes/maybe no. $38,000 per at just four theatres isn't horrible, but it's nowhere near the level of truly big hits. Similar films playing basically the same theatres: The Imitation Game $119,000; The King's Speech $88,000. Even Carol did $63,000 per, and only ended up a bit under $13 million total. I'm not quite read to toss the movie aside the way Sabin is based on the gross, but it's not a number to crow about.

It's harder to find comparables for Battle of the Sexes, because most limited openings are much smaller (4-6 theatres); it's usually the second weekend before it goes as wide as 20. And, when you get out as far as that, the per-screen gets considerably diluted (the film might have done $40-50,000 at just 4). It's safe to say the film is not in true blockbuster territory (like Black Swan, that did $80,000 per at 18 theatres, or No Country for Old Men, that did almost $44,000 per at 28), but it could still do well enough when it expands next weekend.

On the flip side: Stronger didn't make much impression this weekend (barely over $3000 per at under 600 theatres), and takes a hit in likelihood of best actor nomination.

Speaking of best actor possibilities: remember a few weeks ago, I noted that Marjorie Prime had been essentially pre-excluded from Oscar consideration by virtue of opening at the tiny Quad Cinema downtown, rather than at the tony Lincoln Plaza? Well, I can report that Lucky WILL be opening at the Lincoln Plaza, meaning at least someone thinks it has a chance of playing in the big leagues. That'll be one to watch for per-screen next weekend.

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Big Magilla » Mon Sep 25, 2017 9:10 am

Precious Doll wrote:V&A still has a higher screen average than V&A.

It does?
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Precious Doll » Mon Sep 25, 2017 7:54 am

Victoria & Abdul dropped 31% at the Australian box office over the weekend. No where as bad as I thought it would. Worth noting that It in it's third week end only a few more screens that V&A still has a higher screen average than V&A.

Mother also in wide release dropped a whopping 60%.

Talking about screen averages I predict that Call Me By Your Name is going to have a massive screen average when it opens. Ditto The Shape of Water. Get the feeling they will be turning people away due to demand.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Big Magilla » Mon Sep 25, 2017 7:11 am

But SAG and Oscar nods often go to the films that have the most screener viewings, which doesn't necessarily correlate to the number of theatrical viewings a film gets from SAG and Academy members.

I really don't know who the audience is for Battle of the Sexes, but I find writing off Victoria and Abdul this early in the game rather amusing. I don't know if the average age of the Oscar voter is still 62 or has gone down a year or two with all the new members, but it's just the kind of film that over-62 Academy members are all going to watch. Whether that translates into another Oscar nod for Judi Dench or not, I don't know, but I'm still more inclined to think that it will more than that it won't.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby OscarGuy » Mon Sep 25, 2017 6:54 am

To follow up on Precious' comment on per screen. Here are the films with higher per screen averages this year (than either or both of these):

The Big Sick ($84k)
The Battleship Island ($59k)
The Beguiled ($57k)
Ingrid Goes West ($45k)
Beauty and the Beast ($41k)
Wind River ($40k)
Kedi ($40k)
>>> Victoria & Abdul ($38k - predicted average, could be lower)
T2: Trainspotting ($34k)
Guardians of the Galaxy 2 ($33k)
Good Time ($31k)
An Inconvenient Sequel ($31k)
Chapter & Verse ($31k)
It ($30k)
Colossal ($30k)
In Pursuit of Silence ($28k)
The Little Hours ($28k)
Beatriz at Dinner ($28k)
The Lost City of Z ($27k)
Spider-Man: Homecoming ($26k)
A Ghost Story ($26k)
>>> Battle of the Sexes ($25k - predicted average, could be lower)
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