Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Precious Doll » Mon Sep 25, 2017 5:35 am

But those screen averages (Battle of the Sexes $25,000 & Victoria & Abdul $38,000) aren't that great and the real test will come next week when they expand.

It's worthy noting that Victoria & Abdul didn't exactly set the the box office on fire in the UK, Australia & New Zealand last week. It opened wide in all those markets and did so-so business. If it can't crack those 3 it can forget about gold at the U.S. box office. I should have it's second week Australian box office figures soon and I predict a 50%+ fall off. To be fair the market for 'adult' fare has been dying a death by a 1,000 cuts the last fews years in Australia. But then even well promoted big studio products are falling far short of what they would have made 3 years ago.

Streaming is killing the cinema experience in a way that TV, video & DVD didn't. What doesn't help is the huge expenses involved in operating a cinema complex. Combined with low wage growth and uncertainty of the economic future (which is bleak) is spooking people.

Battle of the Sexes opens this week and it will fail big time. Too U.S. focused for international markets I would think.

Edit: Victoria & Abdul only dropped 31%.
Last edited by Precious Doll on Mon Sep 25, 2017 7:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Big Magilla » Sun Sep 24, 2017 7:13 pm

Sabin wrote:It looks like 'Battle of the Sexes' is not the hot ticket some (including myself) thought it would be. It's received positive if indifferent reviews. Carell and Stone are likely to grab Globe nominations, but (in a packed year for Best Actress) Stone probably will have a hard time breaking through.

So, that's two contenders down(if not out): Stone and Dench.

Um, not exactly.

From MCN:

Exclusive bows with an eye to awards glory saw both Battle of the Sexes and Victoria & Abdul stepping out on a strong footing. The tennis tale grossed $523,000 at 21 serves and the covert history of another court launched with $151,000 from four screens.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Sabin » Sun Sep 24, 2017 3:33 pm

It looks like 'Battle of the Sexes' is not the hot ticket some (including myself) thought it would be. It's received positive if indifferent reviews. Carell and Stone are likely to grab Globe nominations, but (in a packed year for Best Actress) Stone probably will have a hard time breaking through.

So, that's two contenders down(if not out): Stone and Dench.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Precious Doll » Sat Sep 23, 2017 5:08 pm

Reza wrote:
flipp525 wrote:Susannah York passed away in 2011, Precious.


I think Precious meant that Dench was a contemporary of the other actresses of which York was one - they all started their careers on stage and in film more or less at the same time during the 1960s.


Yes, Reza is correct. That is what I meant.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Reza » Sat Sep 23, 2017 12:29 pm

flipp525 wrote:Susannah York passed away in 2011, Precious.


I think Precious meant that Dench was a contemporary of the other actresses of which York was one - they all started their careers on stage and in film more or less at the same time during the 1960s.

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby flipp525 » Sat Sep 23, 2017 9:18 am

Susannah York passed away in 2011, Precious.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Precious Doll » Sat Sep 23, 2017 3:58 am

For me, Dench has been a creation of Harvey Weinstein to a large degree where the Oscars are concerned. Without him, should would never have obtained 7 nominations over the last 20 years.

I'll take most of her contemporaries (Vanessa Redgrave, Maggie Smith, Glenda Jackson, Susannah York, etc) any day of the week over Dench. She has been effective in some roles but she very rarely excites me an actress. I understand she is splendid on stage and that is where it would appear she gained her reputation the 'Dame' title from.

I remember her winning a BFTA for A Room with A View which really baffled me at the time because she barely registered in the film and later learning of the stage work one can see where the win came from. Whilst she is the best thing about Victoria and Abdul I really hope she doesn't make the final five with so many potentially worthier contenders.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Big Magilla » Sat Sep 23, 2017 2:25 am

Dench is someone I grew to appreciate vey late.

She had been nominated for a BAFTA twelve times and won six times before her U.S. breakout in Mrs. Brown, but even though I had seen her in four of her BAFTA nominated roles (Wetherby, A Room with a View, 84 Charing Cross Road, A Handful of Dust), she failed to make much of an impression on me.

The first time I found her interesting was when I compared her playing of Sally Bowles in the 1968 London cast recording of Cabaret to her playing of Fraulein Schneider in the 1993 studio cast recording. I later thought she was good in her first Oscar nominated role in Mrs. Brown, but was a distant third in my liking behind Helena Bonham Carter (Margaret's Museum, The Wings of the Dove) and Brenda Blethyn (Secrets & Lies). I thought she was amusing in Shakespeare in Love, but nowhere near as good as Lynn Redgrave in Gods and Monsters. Then came the under-rated Tea with Mussolini in which I thought she was awful compared to Joan Plowright, Maggie Smith and even Cher.

Chocolat was the first film in which I really got her. It was a crappy film, but her flinty performance was a jewel among the dross and my choice to win. The following year she was nominated for Iris, which I didn't much care for. I thought she was better in The Shipping News, which like Chocolot, was another underwhelming film in which she was the standout. It was probably around this time that I discovered her British comedy series, As Time Goes By on PBS and really became a fan, but not necessarily a staunch one. At the same time, I found her Lady Bracknell in The Importance of Being Earnest rather wan.

I thought Mrs. Henderson Presents was inferior to the 1945 Rita Hayworth film, Tonight and Every Night with Florence Bates as a fictionalized version of Mrs. Henderson. Joan Plowright in Mrs. Palfrey at the Claremont was my old lady of choice that year. Felicity Huffman in Transamerica was favorite to win the Oscar. I liked Dench much better in Notes on a Scandal, but like just about everyone else, not as much as Helen Mirren in The Queen.

Dench was good in the 2008 mini-series Cranford, but Eileen Atkins acted her under the table. Although there was a smattering of Oscar buzz for her in My Week with Marilyn and J. Edgar, I found her underwhelming in both. I did like her in The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and Philomena and thought she was a better choice to win a second Oscar for the latter than Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine.

On paper, she still seems a better Oscar prospect for Victoria and Abdul than some of the actresses in films more to the liking of today's "major" critics, but then I haven't seen any of their performances either, although I have seen either clips or trailers for the seven cited, one of which does not have a distributer, four of which I liked and two of which I didn't, though all six of those with a distributer and Dench could be nominated for Golden Globes. Not all of them will fit into Oscar's five slots, but if Oscar nominations went strictly to the stars of the best reviewed films of any year, we would be looking at a far different roster of nominees than has been the case.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby The Original BJ » Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:54 pm

Big Magilla wrote:All the same, "hot" is not a word I would associate with Dench, none of whose previous nominations were slam dunks.


I'm not sure I understand what you mean when you say that none of her 7 nominations were slam dunks. Dench started getting nominations right at the point I started following the Oscars, and I can't remember a single one that ever seemed on the bubble. Yeah, a couple of them were throwaways, but I mean, a nom for Mrs. Henderson Presents DID seem like a pretty big slam dunk in the paltry '05 field.

It's also worth noting that there were performances where she picked up key precursor attention -- The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, The Shipping News, Skyfall -- that did seem like longer-shot candidacies, and she didn't break through with Oscar for any of them, so it's not as if she gets nominated for EVERYTHING.

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby flipp525 » Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:31 pm

This isn't like the year Cate Blanchett got in for her Queen Elizabeth I reprisal in the underwhelming The Golden Age. I'm with Tee that Dench will not make the cut this year. It's just too competitive with a very deep bench.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Mister Tee » Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:56 pm

For the purely mathematical record, Metacritic scores of all the films that have got Judi Dench Oscar nominations:

Shakespeare in Love - 87
Iris - 80
Philomena - 77
Notes on a Scandal - 73
Mrs. Brown - 71
Mrs. Henderson Presents - 71
Chocolat - 64

Victoria & Abdul - 52

And, for context, scores of the other films with best actress hopefuls:

Lady Bird - 92
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 89
The Shape of Water - 87
I, Tonya - 77
Molly's Game - 74
Battle of the Sexes - 73
Film stars Don't Die in Liverpool - 71
...with Winslet and Streep's films to come.

So...we're talking about Dench getting a nomination for a significantly worse film than has ever got her cited before, over a field whose films are rated substantially higher? Never say never, but I bet against that happening.

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Big Magilla » Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:49 pm

All the same, "hot" is not a word I would associate with Dench, none of whose previous nominations were slam dunks. She is often better than her material and from all indications is likely so again. But what a film about Queen Victoria has to do with Bill Clinton's presidency I have no idea. Some of these so-called "major" critics are so full of themselves they sound like they'd rather be running for office themselves instead of filing reviews on the latest movies.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Sabin » Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:19 pm

Big Magilla wrote
Mister Tee Wrote
Speaking of worse-reviewed -- how low do the ratings need to go for Victoria & Abdul before people to stop saying Dench is a hot prospect? Mrs. Henderson Presents did 20 points higher on Metacritic.

Oh, come on! Judi Dench was never considered "hot" even when she young!

Right...but he's clearly not saying that.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby flipp525 » Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:14 pm

It's this year's Philomena.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Big Magilla » Fri Sep 22, 2017 1:44 pm

Mister Tee wrote:Speaking of worse-reviewed -- how low do the ratings need to go for Victoria & Abdul before people to stop saying Dench is a hot prospect? Mrs. Henderson Presents did 20 points higher on Metacritic.


Oh, come on! Judi Dench was never considered "hot" even when she young!

It's scoring higher on Rotten Tomatoes with audiences than critics and higher with "all critics" than "top critics", and most of the negative reviews still praise Dench's performance.

On the other hand, what are some of them reviewing? Justin Chang in the L.A. Times is quoted as saying " Like a Bill Clinton-style Democrat, though, a film such as this one that would have been a huge success in the 1990s today simply reminds us that the species to which it belongs is vanishing." No fooling!
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