Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Big Magilla » Fri Sep 22, 2017 1:30 pm

Mister Tee wrote:
Precious Doll wrote:The billing in Call Me By Your Name is Armie Hammer, Timothée Chalamet & Michael Stuhlbarg right there on celluloid (or digital these days).

As we know, billing doesn't always reflect whether the role is lead or supporting.


To underscore this point: Top billing in Working Girl went to Sigourney Weaver; Melanie Griffith was third.


Actually, top billing in Working Girl went to Harrison Ford who shared equal billing with Sigourney Weaver. Both appeared on the top line of advertising with their pictures more prominently displayed than Melanie Griffith who was trying to peek out from between them. Her name was in equal print size but a half space lower, which always seemed to me like a stunt to attract sympathy for her underdog position.

The one that really set a precedent for me was Good Will Hunting in which Robin Williams' name was first in print ads as well as on screen, albeit with Matt Damon's name in equal size print on the same line in the ads.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Mister Tee » Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:48 pm

Precious Doll wrote:The billing in Call Me By Your Name is Armie Hammer, Timothée Chalamet & Michael Stuhlbarg right there on celluloid (or digital these days).

As we know, billing doesn't always reflect whether the role is lead or supporting.


To underscore this point: Top billing in Working Girl went to Sigourney Weaver; Melanie Griffith was third.

Reviews for Stronger today appear to be better than anticipated (i.e., better than what came from Toronto), which could give Gyllenhaal hope in the horrifically-weak best actor race. At minimum, he jumps ahead of Andrew Garfield, who has a similar role in a much-worse-reviewed film.

Speaking of worse-reviewed -- how low do the ratings need to go for Victoria & Abdul before people to stop saying Dench is a hot prospect? Mrs. Henderson Presents did 20 points higher on Metacritic.

I'm with most of you in being utterly torn on The Florida Project, which has a lot of people praising it but all the while saying it's out of the Academy wheelhouse. Generally, such films get attention when there are only a few strong contenders in sight (as Moonlight did, last year); this year's field seems bountiful enough at this point that the film might get lost. Then again, Beasts of the Southern Wild managed to emerge from a crowded field, so never say never.

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Sabin » Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:24 pm

Precious Doll wrote
I still not convinced for The Florida Project aside from maybe Willem Dafoe and a screenplay award. Sean Baker is just too left-field for Academy tastes though I'll be very happy to be proven wrong.

My friends who have seen it say that it's an almost great but it's not up the Academy alley. It's very vignette-ish, almost plotless, and Willem DaFoe is wonderful but he has no big scenes. I think he's probably in the race but who knows? I think the reason why this race seems especially wide open is that the leading contenders are all character actors: Michael Stuhlberg, Willem DaFoe, Michael Shannon, and Sam Rockwell. Love it.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby ThePianist » Fri Sep 22, 2017 6:46 am

Timothée Chalamet is getting in for Best Actor.

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Precious Doll » Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:34 am

The billing in Call Me By Your Name is Armie Hammer, Timothée Chalamet & Michael Stuhlbarg right there on celluloid (or digital these days).

As we know, billing doesn't always reflect whether the role is lead or supporting. For me Hammer was supporting but I can accept arguments for co-lead and I agree with what Magilla has said below in relation to falling short in both categories. A SAG nomination is very likely for Hammer (most likely supporting) because after all he is the seducer, so to speak, and his personal appeal will appeal to the masses who, lets face it would be more than happy to be seduced by Hammer themselves. But there are some (a minority clearly) who consider his character and playing of it a little creepy. I must admit that the volleyball scene (which can be viewed on-line), a little sort of creepy. Fine if you want that attention from him but if you didn't if would be really off putting and even threatening.

I just don't see the Academy nominating Hammer for the role. He deserves a nomination in my view, more so that Michael Shulbarg, but the character has too much baggage so to speak for a nomination. The fact that the film will in all likelihood be a major nominee (Picture, Director, Screenplay Adaptation and Supporting Actor) will be enough of a reward.

I still not convinced for The Florida Project aside from maybe Willem Dafoe and a screenplay award. Sean Baker is just too left-field for Academy tastes though I'll be very happy to be proven wrong.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby Big Magilla » Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:37 am

I don't know. Someone who refuses to campaign for himself might be a refreshing choice. The bigger problem for Armie Hammer is that his role could be conceived as either lead or supporting, which puts him at a disadvantage as he could come up short in both categories. The same is true for Jamie Bell, although no one seems to be predicting him in either category.

I am far from calling a winner in any category. One day it seems it could be this, another day it seems it could be that, but nothing looks like a foregone conclusion yet.

The Florida Project seems like a nice little movie, something like The Little Fugitive, but hardly an awards magnet. Get Out was a nice surprise, a modern horror film that was actually good, but an Oscar contender in major categories? I think the most it could end up with is a screenplay nod. If it were a five-way race, I could see Dunkirk, Call Me by Your Name, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri as likely contenders at this point with Last Flag Flying, Darkest Hour and the still unseen The Post vying for the fifth slot, but zeroing in on ten at this point is still just speculation for me.

Gary Oldman remains the one constant in the Best Actor predictions with Jake Gyllenhaal coming on strong. Everyone else is a question mark at this point.

My vote for best actress would probably be Frances McDormand, but that's in part because although Fargo was my choice for Best Picture of 1996, Debbie Reynolds was my choice for Best Actress in Mother so I owe her, especially since I've already given my Best Actress award to Annette Bening and Judi Dench in recent years. If Oscar wants a fresher face this year, then it's likely to be Sally Hawkins or Saoirse Ronan. Kate Winslet, who was robbed of a nomination for last year's The Dressmaker, is another veteran who could displace one of the already seen front-runners. One can never count out Meryl Streep of course, but really, enough is enough for giving her routine nods for marginal work and her Katherine Graham looks like another one of those.

Supporting actor is beginning to look solid for Michael Stuhlbarg, Willem Dafoe and Sam Rockwell with all others fighting for the remaining two spots.

Supporting Actress is still a giant question mark, with Laurie Metcalf slowly emerging as the sentimental favorite.

Director looks good for Nolan, del Toro and Guadagino, but Martin McDonagh seems to be emerging as a strong fourth contender. It does look like someone other than the same old same old will win here.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby ThePianist » Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:10 pm

These pathetic Tumblr Stanners on AW keep considering Hammer. He's outrighted STATED he's not going to campaign for himself.

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby ThePianist » Thu Sep 21, 2017 4:53 pm

Best Motion Picture of the Year
WINNER
Call Me By Your Name
Nominees
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Last Flag Flying
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour*
Steve Carell - Last Flag Flying
Daniel Day Lewis - Phantom Thread
Jake Gyllenhaal - Stronger

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
Meryl Streep - The Post
Sally Hawkins - The Shape of a Water*
Francis McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing
Kate Winslet - Wonder Wheel

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Michael Stuhlbarg - Call Me By Your Name
Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
Bryan Cranston - Last Flag Flying
Michael Shannon - The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Brooklyn Prince - The Florida Project
Hong Chau - Downsizing
Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird*
Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water

Best Achievement in Directing
Luca Guadagnino - Call Me By Your Name
Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Jordan Peele - Get Out
Sean Baker - The Florida Project
Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water*

Best Original Screenplay
The Florida Project - Sean Baker, Chris Bergoch
Get Out - Jordan Peele
The Post - Liz Hannah, Josh Singer
The Shape of Water - Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - Martin McDonagh*

Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name - James Ivory*
Darkest Hour - Anthony McCarten
The Disaster Artist - Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber
Last Flag Flying - Richard Linklater
Molly's Game - Aaron Sorkin
Last edited by ThePianist on Wed Nov 01, 2017 5:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Oscar Predictions Thread - TIFF to NBR

Postby bizarre » Thu Sep 21, 2017 3:25 pm

Go for it.

Will edit this post with my longlists and precursor predictions.


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