New York Film Critics Circle Winners

Sabin
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Re: New York Film Critics Circle Winners

Postby Sabin » Thu Nov 30, 2017 4:55 pm

Mister Tee wrote
The reason I raise all this is to answer Sabin/flipp’s worry over Three Billboards (as well as the contention, at Awards Daily, that Shape of Water is now dead). I’d suggest that, in a year with so many critically praised contenders, it’ll be impossible for every worthy film to get cited by a critics’ group – especially when all that critics’ group releases is a winner’s list, with no runners-up.
I'll agree to what you're saying w/r/t the lack of runners up information. What I said previously was that 'Three Billboards...' is having a bad week. I don't think anybody could deny that. It's certainly too soon to announce any sort of prognosis on the film, but the reason why nobody would talk about the lack of a showing for 'Dunkirk' and perhaps we should here is that Nolan's film is a blockbuster. For lack of eloquence, this ain't. It can certainly pull through but having the support of critics would certainly help it. I was completely unaware that East Coasters weren't enamored with this film. That would certainly explain it.

[quoteThe Original BJ wrote
I’d honestly wondered if Dafoe might go the way of Buscemi/Sarsgaard/Brooks, who seemed solidly in the race up until SAG dropped them, foreshadowing the Oscar miss. That, of course, could still happen, but The Florida Project seems overall to be a stronger contender than those films, as evidenced by Baker’s Director win today. If a Best Pic nod is genuinely within reach, it’s hard not to see Dafoe benefiting from that.

Exactly. And a Best Picture nomination within grasp is something that Christopher Plummer didn't even have.


Forgive my hyperbole but the big winner of the week was women. Sure, 'Call Me By Your Name' did just fine and Gotham seemed to erupt in 'Get Out' enthusiasm, but both major film critic's groups gave Best Picture to films carried by a leading female performance, which also won Best Actress. Greta Gerwig won Best Director. Laurie Metcalf won for playing her mother. Sean Baker won Best Director for a directing a movie starring a six year old girl. Willem "Creepiest Actor Ever" DaFoe won Best Supporting Actor by being the nicest guy in the world to said-six year old girl. And Rachel Morrison was the first recipient of Best Cinematography.

But the biggest winner was Tiffany Haddish. You can dismiss this as East Coast hipsterism, but if you look at the time it took them to land on her as their winner, it wasn't a head-scratcher for them. They signed off pretty quick. Best Supporting Actress hasn't taken shape yet, and the two leading contenders are television actresses for whom an Oscar would be a nice feather in their cap. Tiffany Haddish FUCKING WANTS THIS. She's hosting SNL. She's talking about her troubled past. I'm not saying she's definitely getting nominated or that she's going to win, but all these critic's groups really do is tell voters who to consider. An endorsement from NYFCC matters for someone like Tiffany Haddish.

Also a big winner: A24. They won four awards. For a while, it didn't seem like 'Lady Bird' was necessarily as big a contender as 'Moonlight.' I still don't think it is, but it's picked up four awards already. At this point in the race, it's the critic's choice. Best Actor winner Timothee Chalamet is even a part of the ensemble.

There are other winners. But the biggest loser? Me. I don't think I've gotten a single prediction right.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: New York Film Critics Circle Winners

Postby Mister Tee » Thu Nov 30, 2017 3:06 pm

My overall reaction: this set of winners, combined with NBR, confirm for me that this is a wide-field year, one that may, for the first time since 2013, justify the expansion of the best picture ballot. Last year, there were, in truth, only four films that mattered – Moonlight, La La Land, Manchester and Arrival; the rest of the best picture slate was filler. This year, we have a broad field of highly praised and (for those that have opened) commercially plausible films. I could imagine Call Me by Your Name, Dunkirk, Get Out, The Florida Project, Lady Bird, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Post, The Shape of Water and Phantom Thread all being major candidates for film/director nods, even in a year with only five slots – and I could see The Big Sick and Darkest Hour potentially competing for film/not director spots. To go the Metacritic route for backup: we haven’t had official reviews yet for The Post or Phantom Thread, but of the other nine films I note, only Darkest Hour (73) and Get Out (84) have scores below 86 – with four films in the 90s. This after a year when Fences, Hidden Figures, Lion and Hacksaw Ridge couldn’t break mid-70s but got best picture recognition. This is a fertile field.

The reason I raise all this is to answer Sabin/flipp’s worry over Three Billboards (as well as the contention, at Awards Daily, that Shape of Water is now dead). I’d suggest that, in a year with so many critically praised contenders, it’ll be impossible for every worthy film to get cited by a critics’ group – especially when all that critics’ group releases is a winner’s list, with no runners-up. If, for example, we were to be told that Ronan only narrowly won over McDormand and Sally Hawkins, our entire view of the race might shift. If, similarly, we were told Rockwell and McDonagh were close seconds for supporting actor and screenplay, again we’d have a different take. For that matter, we might be told that Christopher Nolan was barely edged out under directing – funny how no one thinks THAT movie has taken a mortal blow, despite the fact last summer’s reviews suggested it would be heavily in the running for top prizes. The point is, Three Billboards’ only issue might be that a minority of critics in the NY pool are hostile to the film (which has been a rumor at other sites) – much the way Birdman was treated three years back, in a way that didn’t seem to hurt it with AMPAS.

My guess is, with so many candidates for best picture, we’re going to get a wide assortment of winners from the serious critics’ groups. We’re going to have to wait on the Globes, SAG and the blasted Broadcasters to get a serious notion of what the best picture field is. (And until we know what that field consists of, it’s pointless to speculate on who our winner or front-runner is.) If Three Billboards or Shape of Water fail to get film/director nods at either or both of the Globes and Broadcasters, then it’s time to worry. Till then, we’re working with too-limited information.

As for the other categories: My best instinct on the day was figuring Oldman wouldn’t be their cup of tea, and Chalamet was the only logical fallback. (Though it’s always possible Oldman finished just a hair behind – that runner-up info can cut both ways.) If you assume Three Billboards was fatally handicapped by a few dissenters, Ronan seemed the most logical best actress choice. (I think the blogosphere’s expectations for Streep were largely generated by talking amongst themselves way too much.) Dafoe was, to me, the least likely person to run the table in the bunch; if he takes LA/Boston/National Society, it’ll be the most unexpected sweep in some time. But maybe right now I’m over-reacting to two random selections. As for Haddish – I had my say about her earlier. I’m staying with the proposition that the race is Janney/Metcalf to the end, and I don’t think this result has much impact on that. As for Sean Baker…he’s the kind of candidate who could have got a lone director’s slot in the old days, and that translates to film/director today. He won’t have an easy road getting there, but then, a lot of people love the movie more than I do. (I LIKE it, don’t love it.)

The best thing happening from this first batch of results is the unexpected rise of Phantom Thread. The blogosphere made a snap decision that it was out of the Academy’s wheelhouse, despite it getting a fair number of enthusiastic responses from at least second-tier critics. We could be looking at PTA’s second directing nomination, as well as multiple nods both above and below the line. I’ll be VERY interested to see how this does in LA, where they’ve long doted on him.

So, yeah: onto LA. Let’s keep this race muddled for as long as we can.

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Re: New York Film Critics Circle Winners

Postby The Original BJ » Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:54 pm

Go figure that the one movie that has blanked this week — Three Billboards — is my favorite.

Lady Bird already seemed like a solid Best Picture nominee, so I’d say this helps Gerwig’s Director chances most (even though she didn’t win that category.) And Ronan seems like she may make a real run at the Best Actress Oscar — she certainly fits the bill of the Portman/Stone/Lawrence type, a well-liked young starlet with a recent past loss on her resume. (In her case, two already, despite her young age.)

Mister Tee’s prediction that precursors just aren’t that interested in rewarding Oldman seems to be bearing out. I’m still not persuaded Chalamet is a win threat, but his nomination seems secure.

I’d honestly wondered if Dafoe might go the way of Buscemi/Sarsgaard/Brooks, who seemed solidly in the race up until SAG dropped them, foreshadowing the Oscar miss. That, of course, could still happen, but The Florida Project seems overall to be a stronger contender than those films, as evidenced by Baker’s Director win today. If a Best Pic nod is genuinely within reach, it’s hard not to see Dafoe benefiting from that.

This isn’t on the level of Sonic’s Al Franken prediction, but I’m pretty proud of myself for predicting that Tiffany Haddish might be worth taking seriously as a contender, though I certainly didn’t think she’d take this prize. Haven’t seen the movie yet, but Supporting Actress right now strikes me as Metcalf/Janney...and then a bunch of other people, with a lot of wiggle room for any of the other possibilities (Haddish included) to make a case for themselves.

Do the people who think Streep would run the table a la Sophie’s Choice think that performance is on the level of Sophie’s Choice? Or even in the same stratosphere as Sophie’s Choice? (EDIT: Yes, I know a lot of them haven’t seen it. But some have.)

Phantom Thread’s pair of Screenplay prizes this week is a little surprising to me, not because the movie isn’t worthy — it is — but because it lacks the kind of verbal/narrative flourishes of some of its competitors. (It seems more like the kind of film that wins Director prizes from critics’ groups.)

If the NY critics couldn’t find one of those artier animated efforts to champion, I don’t see how Coco doesn’t just steamroll through the season.

If Oscar-nominated, Mudbound’s DP would be the first female in that category, right? I’d say she’s got a solid shot. I rate Blade Runner/Dunkirk/Shape of Water sure things in that race, with everything else duking it out for the remaining two spots.
Last edited by The Original BJ on Thu Nov 30, 2017 3:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: New York Film Critics Circle Winners

Postby nightwingnova » Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:35 pm

Now off to troll for the runners-up!

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Re: New York Film Critics Circle Winners

Postby Mister Tee » Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:20 pm

And a wham-bam finish: Sean Baker for best director, Lady Bird for best picture.

Full comments to come.

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Re: New York Film Critics Circle Winners

Postby ThePianist » Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:16 pm

flipp525 wrote:Willem Dafoe seems to be emerging as a frontrunner?


Nope.

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Re: New York Film Critics Circle Winners

Postby Sabin » Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:03 pm

They're taking their time on Best Director...
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Re: New York Film Critics Circle Winners

Postby flipp525 » Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:52 pm

Sabin wrote:Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is off to a bad start...

I know. What the hell? Why?
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Re: New York Film Critics Circle Winners

Postby Sabin » Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:48 pm

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is off to a bad start...
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: New York Film Critics Circle Winners

Postby flipp525 » Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:46 pm

Another screenplay win for Phantom Thread/PTA.
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."



-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell

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Re: New York Film Critics Circle Winners

Postby Sabin » Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:39 pm

I think this is the only place on Earth with low expectations for The Post.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: New York Film Critics Circle Winners

Postby Mister Tee » Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:33 pm

And Saoirse wins number two from NY. Unlike the last time, I can enjoy her victory -- though maybe preferring McDormand by a little (in 2015, I thought Blanchett/Rampling/Larson were all considerably superior.)

For some reason, lots of folks at AwardsWatch were convinced Streep was going to Sophie's Choice her way through the season, and they're shell-shocked by this.

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Re: New York Film Critics Circle Winners

Postby Sabin » Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:22 pm

Two awards to go: Director and Film. Each film has one.
Last edited by Sabin on Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: New York Film Critics Circle Winners

Postby Sabin » Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:20 pm

Tiffany Haddish is campaigning for the Oscar in a very smart way. There is no Viola Davis this year. The race isn’t just wide open, it’s largely a bunch of white women playing mothers. Hunter, Janet, Metcalf... Haddish is hosting SNL, talking about her troubled past, and positioning herself as a new star, so a win would feel more meaningful.

I’d agree that her role is pretty one-note, but she’s afforded a scene that deepens her character. She’s a spiritual slur.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: New York Film Critics Circle Winners

Postby flipp525 » Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:13 pm

Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name

Yay!!!
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."



-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell


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