Mister Tee wrote
The reason I raise all this is to answer Sabin/flipp’s worry over Three Billboards (as well as the contention, at Awards Daily, that Shape of Water is now dead). I’d suggest that, in a year with so many critically praised contenders, it’ll be impossible for every worthy film to get cited by a critics’ group – especially when all that critics’ group releases is a winner’s list, with no runners-up.
I'll agree to what you're saying w/r/t the lack of runners up information. What I said previously was that 'Three Billboards...' is having a bad week. I don't think anybody could deny that. It's certainly too soon to announce any sort of prognosis on the film, but the reason why nobody would talk about the lack of a showing for 'Dunkirk' and perhaps we should here is that Nolan's film is a blockbuster. For lack of eloquence, this ain't. It can certainly pull through but having the support of critics would certainly help it. I was completely unaware that East Coasters weren't enamored with this film. That would certainly explain it.
[quoteThe Original BJ wrote
I’d honestly wondered if Dafoe might go the way of Buscemi/Sarsgaard/Brooks, who seemed solidly in the race up until SAG dropped them, foreshadowing the Oscar miss. That, of course, could still happen, but The Florida Project seems overall to be a stronger contender than those films, as evidenced by Baker’s Director win today. If a Best Pic nod is genuinely within reach, it’s hard not to see Dafoe benefiting from that.
Exactly. And a Best Picture nomination within grasp is something that Christopher Plummer didn't even have.
Forgive my hyperbole but the big winner of the week was women. Sure, 'Call Me By Your Name' did just fine and Gotham seemed to erupt in 'Get Out' enthusiasm, but both major film critic's groups gave Best Picture to films carried by a leading female performance, which also won Best Actress. Greta Gerwig won Best Director. Laurie Metcalf won for playing her mother. Sean Baker won Best Director for a directing a movie starring a six year old girl. Willem "Creepiest Actor Ever" DaFoe won Best Supporting Actor by being the nicest guy in the world to said-six year old girl. And Rachel Morrison was the first recipient of Best Cinematography.
But the biggest winner was Tiffany Haddish. You can dismiss this as East Coast hipsterism, but if you look at the time it took them to land on her as their winner, it wasn't a head-scratcher for them. They signed off pretty quick. Best Supporting Actress hasn't taken shape yet, and the two leading contenders are television actresses for whom an Oscar would be a nice feather in their cap. Tiffany Haddish FUCKING WANTS THIS. She's hosting SNL. She's talking about her troubled past. I'm not saying she's definitely getting nominated or that she's going to win, but all these critic's groups really do is tell voters who to consider. An endorsement from NYFCC matters for someone like Tiffany Haddish.
Also a big winner: A24. They won four awards. For a while, it didn't seem like 'Lady Bird' was necessarily as big a contender as 'Moonlight.' I still don't think it is, but it's picked up four awards already. At this point in the race, it's the critic's choice. Best Actor winner Timothee Chalamet is even a part of the ensemble.
There are other winners. But the biggest loser? Me. I don't think I've gotten a single prediction right.