Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

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ThePianist
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

Postby ThePianist » Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:26 pm

POST-SAG WINS/PRE-BAFTA NOMS

This race is getting tighter and tighter. The noms are very close to forming. It feels like all major categories so far are incredibly weak and extremely divisive in precursors while having zero frontrunners. :lol:

Best Picture
1. Lady Bird
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Call Me By Your Name
4. Get Out
5. The Shape of Water
6. Dunkirk
7. The Post
__________________________________________________
8. Darkest Hour
9. The Big Sick
10. I, Tonya
11. The Florida Project
12. Phantom Thread

Best Actor
1. Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
2. Timothée Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
3. Daniel Day Lewis - Phantom Thread
__________________________________________________
4. James Franco - The Disaster Artist
5. Tom Hanks - The Post
6. Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out

Best Actress
1. Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
2. Francis McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water
4. Meryl Streep - The Post
5. Margot Robbie - I, Tonya
__________________________________________________
6. Judi Dench - Victoria and Abdul

Best Supporting Actor (THIS CATEGORY IS SUCH A MESS. I suppose we have to wait until BAFTA)
1. Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
2. Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
__________________________________________________
3. Richard Jenkins - The Shape of Water
4. Armie Hammer - Call Me By Your Name
5. Bob Odenkirk - The Post
6. Michael Stuhlbarg - Call Me By Your Name
7. Woody Harrelson - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
8. Ben Mendelsohn - Darkest Hour
9. Steve Carell - Battle of the Sexes
10. Mark Rylance - Dunkirk
11. Christopher Plummer - All The Money In The World

Best Supporting Actress
1. Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
2. Allison Janney - I, Tonya
__________________________________________________
3. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
4. Hong Chau - Downsizing
5. Holly Hunter - The Big Sick
6. Mary J. Blige - Mudbound

Best Director
1. Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
2. Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
__________________________________________________
3. Steven Spielberg - The Post
4. Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird
5. Martin McDonaugh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6. Luca Guadagnino - Call Me By Your Name
7. Jordan Peele - Get Out
8. Sean Baker - The Florida Project

Best Original Screenplay
1. Greta Gerwig - Ladybird
2. Martin McDonaugh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Jordan Peele - Get Out
4. Paul Thomas Anderson - Phantom Thread
5. Liz Hannah, Josh Singer - The Post
__________________________________________________
6. Emily V. Gordon, Kumail Nanjiani - The Big Sick
7. Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor - The Shape of Water

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. James Ivory - Call Me By Your Name
2. Michael H. Weber, Scott Neustadter - The Disaster Artist
__________________________________________________
3. Anthony McCarten - Darkest Hour
4. Aaron Sorkin - Molly’s Game
5. Virgil Williams, Dee Rees - Mudbound
6. Stephen Chbosky, Steve Conrad, Jack Thorne - Wonder

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

Postby anonymous1980 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:36 am

I'd switch Get Out and The Florida Project and bump Phantom Thread up to "On the bubble" but otherwise, yeah, pretty much.

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

Postby Sabin » Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:24 pm

Kris Tapley's take on an admittedly exciting year.

http://variety.com/2017/film/in-content ... 202636267/

Best Picture Frontrunners
“Call Me by Your Name” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Dunkirk” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
“The Florida Project” (A24)
“Lady Bird” (A24)
“The Post” (20th Century Fox)
“The Shape of Water” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

On the Bubble
“The Big Sick” (Amazon Studios/Lionsgate)
“Darkest Hour” (Focus Features)
“The Disaster Artist” (A24)
“Get Out” (Universal Pictures)
“Mudbound” (Netflix)

Dark Horses
“All the Money in the World” (Sony/TriStar Pictures)
“I, Tonya” (Neon/30WEST)
“Phantom Thread” (Focus Features)
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“Victoria & Abdul” (Focus Features)
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

Postby ThePianist » Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:16 am

Big Magilla wrote:
ThePianist wrote:POST-GLOBE NOMS
Francis McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri


OK, but could you please stop trying to give Frances McDormand a sex change? Once might be a typo, but this is becoming a habit with you! :)


What can I say? You thought Chalamet was Oldman's "competition?" Uh-uh.

So upset the Studio is frauding him to Actress just to increase his chances. :lol:

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

Postby rolotomasi99 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:51 am

BEST PICTURE

The Shape Of Water

Lady Bird

Call Me by Your Name

The Post

Dunkirk

Get Out

Darkest Hour

Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri

The Florida Project

Wonder

DIRECTING

The Shape Of Water

Lady Bird

The Post

Call Me by Your Name

Dunkirk

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Lady Bird

Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri

Get Out

The Post

The Shape Of Water

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Call Me by Your Name

Molly’s Game

The Disaster Artist

Mudbound

Wonder

LEAD ACTRESS

Sally Hawkins - The Shape Of Water

Meryl Streep - The Post

Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri

Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird

Margot Robbie - I,Tonya

LEAD ACTOR

Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour

Daniel Day-Lewis - Phantom Thread

Timothy Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name

Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out

Tom Hanks - The Post

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Alison Janey - I, Tonya

Laurie Metcalfe - Lady Bird

Mary J. Blige - Mudbound

Leslie Manville - Phantom Thread

Octavia Spencer - The Shape Of Water

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project

Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri

Michael Stulhberg - Call Me By Your Name

Richard Jenkins - The Shape Of Water

Armie Hammer - Call Me By Your Name

FILM EDITING

Dunkirk

The Post

The Shape Of Water

Get Out

Darkest Hour

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Dunkirk

The Shape Of Water

Blade Runner 2049

Call Me by Your Name

Darkest Hour

ART DIRECTION

The Shape of Water

Blade Runner 2049

Murder On The Orient Express

Beauty And The Beast

The Post

COSTUME DESIGN

Murder On The Orient Express

Beauty And The Beast

Victoria and Abdul

Phantom Thread

A Quiet Passion

ORIGINAL SCORE

The Post

The Shape of Water

Darkest Hour

Wonderstruck

Victoria and Abdul

SOUND MIXING

Dunkirk

The Last Jedi

The Shape Of Water

The Post

Darkest Hour

SOUND EDITING

Dunkirk

The Last Jedi

Wonder Woman

Blade Runner 2049

Only The Brave

VISUAL EFFECTS

The Last Jedi

Blade Runner 2049

War For The Planet of the Apes

Dunkirk

Wonder Woman

MAKEUP

The Shape of Water

Darkest Hour

Wonder
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

Postby Big Magilla » Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:45 am

ThePianist wrote:POST-GLOBE NOMS
Francis McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri


OK, but could you please stop trying to give Frances McDormand a sex change? Once might be a typo, but this is becoming a habit with you! :)
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

Postby ThePianist » Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:04 am

POST-GLOBE NOMS

Best Picture
1. Lady Bird
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Call Me By Your Name
4. Get Out
5. The Shape of Water
6. Dunkirk
7. The Post
8. I, Tonya
9. Darkest Hour

Best Actor
1. Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
2. Timothée Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
3. Daniel Day Lewis - Phantom Thread
__________________________________________________
4. Tom Hanks - The Post
5. James Franco - The Disaster Artist
6. Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out

Best Actress
1. Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
2. Francis McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water
4. Meryl Streep - The Post (Near-Locked Nom, but no chance of winning.)
__________________________________________________
5. Margot Robbie - I, Tonya
6. Jessica Chastain - Molly’s Game
7. Vicky Krieps - Phantom Thread
8. Judi Dench - Victoria and Abdul

Best Supporting Actor
1. Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project (I guess?)
2. Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Michael Stuhlbarg - Call Me By Your Name
4. Richard Jenkins - The Shape of Water
5. Armie Hammer - Call Me By Your Name
__________________________________________________
6. Bob Odenkirk - The Post
7. Ben Mendelsohn - Darkest Hour
8. Christopher Plummer - All The Money In The World
9. Michael Shannon - The Shape of Water

Best Supporting Actress
1. Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
2. Allison Janney - I, Tonya
3. Holly Hunter - The Big Sick
__________________________________________________
4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
5. Hong Chau - Downsizing
6. Tiffany Haddish - Girls Trip
__________________________________________________
7. Mary J. Blige - Mudbound ("NETFLIX STIGMA")

Best Director
1. Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
2. Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
3. Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird
4. Luca Guadagnino - Call Me By Your Name
5. Steven Spielberg - The Post
__________________________________________________
6. Martin McDonaugh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
7. Jordan Peele - Get Out

Best Original Screenplay
1. Greta Gerwig - Ladybird
2. Martin McDonaugh - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Jordan Peele - Get Out
4. Paul Thomas Anderson - Phantom Thread
5. Liz Hannah, Josh Singer - The Post
__________________________________________________
6. Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor - The Shape of Water

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. James Ivory - Call Me By Your Name
2. Michael H. Weber, Scott Neustadter - The Disaster Artist
__________________________________________________
3. Anthony McCarten - Darkest Hour
4. Virgil Williams, Dee Rees - Mudbound (COULD AVOID "NETFLIX STIGMA")
5. Aaron Sorkin - Molly’s Game
6. Stephen Chbosky, Steve Conrad, Jack Thorne - Wonder
7. Richard Linklater - Last Flag Flying
8. John Pollono - Stronger

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

Postby Greg » Tue Dec 05, 2017 2:40 pm

The Original BJ wrote:I genuinely don’t see a scenario where Call Me By Your Name loses Adapted Screenplay.


I don't know the details, but, due to the massive differences in intensity of competition between Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay, I was wondering if any of the likely Best Picture nominees thought of as being Original would finagle their way into adapted a la Whiplash and Moonlight.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

Postby Mister Tee » Tue Dec 05, 2017 2:26 pm

Sabin wrote:So...here's my question. If the creature in 'The Shape of Water' is a makeup creation, then wouldn't it give 'Darkest Hour' a run for its money?

Excellent question, and I don't know the answer. I tended to think of it as a big rubber suit, but the make-up branch may view it otherwise.

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

Postby Sabin » Tue Dec 05, 2017 2:15 pm

Mister Tee wrote
That was my immediate reaction as well; it's more than likely Call Me by Your Name will be the only best picture nominee on that side of the ledger, which almost ensures a win.

Unless of course 'Mudbound' sneaks in. The industry seems very enamored with Dee Rees right now.

Mister Tee wrote
Score: Shape of Water and Phantom Thread are both huge candidates; maybe something else has a chance as well.

'Dunkirk' has a shot.

Mister Tee wrote
Sound/sound editing: These could go to Dunkirk -- especially sound editing -- but Shape of Water isn't out of the question.

'Dunkirk' would have my vote for worst sound mixing and editing of the year, easily. But after 'Gravity' won for Sound Editing, I'm convinced voters just go for what they think is the best mixing and editing of the year. Haven't seen 'The Shape of Water' so I can't say how good the sound work is.

Mister Tee wrote
Make-up: People have been saying Darkest Hour forever, but now Wonder offers competition. And, of course, the branch voters could omit both and make the choice among films no one's seen.

So...here's my question. If the creature in 'The Shape of Water' is a makeup creation, then wouldn't it give 'Darkest Hour' a run for its money?
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

Postby Mister Tee » Tue Dec 05, 2017 1:53 pm

The Original BJ wrote:
Greg wrote:So far, the only category I can think of that has a true front runner is Animated Feature with Coco. Can anyone think of any other?


I genuinely don’t see a scenario where Call Me By Your Name loses Adapted Screenplay.

That was my immediate reaction as well; it's more than likely Call Me by Your Name will be the only best picture nominee on that side of the ledger, which almost ensures a win.

I'd also argue Dunkirk for editing is pretty close to locked in, unless we get a repeat of the Inception omission.

But Greg's overall point is well-taken: most years, we have categories that seem nailed down or at least damn close by this point. It's possible, of course, that some categories will have the suspense taken out of them by the TV rounds, but that's different from the past -- when people like J.K. Simmons or Cate Blanchett won, it confirmed what we'd already intuited; this year, a TV round sweep would create consensus, not ratify it.

Just to be specific about what competition we're looking at:

Picture: I have no clue what'll win. Could be up to half a dozen different films.

Actor: the closest to a front-runner with Oldman, but only because the field is so thin and his main competition is so young. He NEEDS to sweep TV to become a sure thing.

Actress: Could be any of Hawkins, Ronan, McDormand -- I think less likely Streep, but some disagree.

Supporting actor: Could be turned into a runaway if Dafoe continues this unlikely run. I still think it's more apt to become at least a three-way race with Stuhlbarg and Rockwell.

Supporting actress: Janney or Metcalf. Could stay that way to the end.

Director: Till we know which five survive the cut, there's no point speculating. Nolan could be anywhere from our winner to our Affleck-like omittee. del Toro is strong. And Spielberg could take off.

Original screenplay: Three Billboards...or Lady Bird...or Get Out...or The Post...or...

Cinematography: Blade Runner, Shape of Water and Dunkirk all have solid claims.

Production design: I never thought anything could make me doubt Blade Runner, but Shape of Water is wow.

Costume design: People are talking up Phantom Thread, but it remains to be seen how well-received that'll be overall. Maybe something more traditional: Beauty and the Beast, Victoria & Abdul.

Sound/sound editing: These could go to Dunkirk -- especially sound editing -- but Shape of Water isn't out of the question.

Score: Shape of Water and Phantom Thread are both huge candidates; maybe something else has a chance as well.

Visual effects: As I said elsewhere, I think Blade Runner is tops, but box office anemia might get in its way (which would be in the tradition of the original).

Make-up: People have been saying Darkest Hour forever, but now Wonder offers competition. And, of course, the branch voters could omit both and make the choice among films no one's seen.

Song: We have no idea what they'll nominate, but right now Remember Me and the song from Call Me by Your Name both seem potent contenders.

Docs, shorts, foreign film are always wide open.

This is, so far, a blessedly murky year -- something we US folk deserve, in this time of national morass. Let us be gloriously distracted for months by this!

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

Postby anonymous1980 » Tue Dec 05, 2017 1:39 pm

OscarGuy wrote:Beauty and the Beast's costume design. Possibly even BPM in Foreign Language FIlm.


I don't know about Beauty and the Beast. I think Phantom Thread could conceivably win that one.

I don't think there's a Foreign Language front-runner yet. I found BPM to be good but not great.

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

Postby The Original BJ » Tue Dec 05, 2017 1:27 pm

Greg wrote:So far, the only category I can think of that has a true front runner is Animated Feature with Coco. Can anyone think of any other?


I genuinely don’t see a scenario where Call Me By Your Name loses Adapted Screenplay.

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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

Postby OscarGuy » Tue Dec 05, 2017 1:23 pm

Beauty and the Beast's costume design. Maybe Call Me By You Name in Adapted Screenplay. Possibly even BPM in Foreign Language FIlm.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Thread - Keeping Up with Precursor Season

Postby Greg » Tue Dec 05, 2017 1:02 pm

So far, the only category I can think of that has a true front runner is Animated Feature with Coco. Can anyone think of any other?
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