SAG Nominations and Predictions

The Original BJ
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Re: SAG Nominations and Predictions

Postby The Original BJ » Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:21 pm

OH ALSO — did you guys watch the announcement live? That was possibly the most obnoxious award nomination announcement I’ve ever seen. Just read the damn nominees, it’s not about you!

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Re: SAG Nominations and Predictions

Postby Mister Tee » Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:39 pm

Let me begin by repeating what I posted Monday: "One over-riding principle should guide all reactions to this and subsequent developments between now and the day of the Oscar nominations: there are too many quality candidates for just about every prime Oscar category." (I address this not so much to this board as to the hysterics running all over the Internet claiming this utterly proves one thing or another. In spite of it being the opposite of what they claimed a day ago.)

Another thing to keep in mind: we're still in the early years of SAG/AFTRA, so we can't be sure the stats we'd built up over the past 20+ years apply quite as rigorously. I note that some of the surprise-ish nominees -- Steve Carell, Woody Harrelson -- are people very familiar from television, and also that, once again, a Netflix offering did very well. These are things that might result from sportscasters and such (who don't get out to the movies as often as most of us do) having a significant voice. It also almost surely means that late-arriving or non-screener-supplying films are at a fatal disadvantage. If Meryl Streep and Daniel Day-Lewis couldn't get in on reputation alone, what chance did Lesley Manvlle have?

The 7-or-8-into-5-won't-go situation I talked about regarding the ensembles played out as I imagined, with films helped (Get Out, The Big Sick, Mudbound) and films hurt (Call Me by Your Name, The Shape of Water, maybe Dunkirk). In a less bountiful year, all the top hopefuls would have made it in, but this year some were bound to be left by the side of the road, so I'm not sure omissions are as fatal as you'd normally think. It could be simply that Get Out, The BIg Sick and Mudbound were more easily/longer available for home viewing. Still, both Call Me by Your Name and Shape of Water suffered individual omissions as well as Ensemble, so maybe we should take this as red-flag time. Call Me by Your Name seems the most wounded, because it missed a potential two supporting nods -- and also because it's been getting nicked over and over the past week or so. Maybe it's Carol all over again? Shape of Water, on the other had, hand been cruising, so this could be an anomaly. DGA/PGA will obviously give us a better idea.

To take the positive side, though: Lady Bird and Three Billboards are obviously greatly advantaged. The latter is now in the midst of a substantial comeback, pointing out once again how fickle the season is turning out to be. And Get Out continues to do well just about everywhere.

I'm not sure what Jada Pinkett Smith is going to say today, as her girl Tiffany was left off again -- along with Octavia Spencer -- but, at the same time, Mudbound got the top category, Mary J. Blige once again turned up, and two on-the-bubble black lead actors scored over some big names. Maybe it's time to point out these things can just be luck of the draw? The Denzel Washington nod feels a bit like Russell Crowe/Cinderella Man -- a reflexive nod to an old favorite that won't carry over to AMPAS -- but the category is thin enough that he might repeat anyway. Kaluuya is benefiting from his film's prominence and that same category thin-ness. Who, back in late Spring, would have imagined him an Oscar contender? -- yet he now stands a good chance of making the cut. The others -- Oldman, Chalamet, Franco -- seem Oscar-solid, and I'm not certain at this point who among them is strongest to win SAG.

Actress seems to have mostly narrowed to the very elite group, with Dench slipping in here on reflex as Streep is possibly disadvantaged by late screenings. The fanciful notion of a 4th for Meryl seems to have vanished, but I think the rest of the category (less Dench) remains wide open as far as winning, here or later.

Supporting actor is such a mess I need to remind myself that SAG only went 2/5 two years ago with AMPAS. Woody Harrelson is a well-deserved pick who reminds me a bit of Tommy Lee Jones, showing up alongside Bardem for No Country. This "extra" nod might bode well for Three Billboards winning Ensemble. Jenkins has now clearly put himself well ahead of Shannon, and is nicely positioned to get an Oscar mention. Steve Carell, I don't know what the hell that's about -- unless it's mainly a rebuke to both Call Me by Your Name guys. I'm thinking (hoping) at least one of the Guadagnino pair turn up at BAFTA, to up their chances. Oh, and Dafoe cruises along, though the vote here will be something of an acid test for his ability to win a popular vote.

The fact that I, Tonya got Robbie a nod, as well as Janney, probably keeps Janney in the supporting actress race, which otherwise Metcalf could run away with. Haddish not getting in here suggests she's much weaker than bloggers have been trying to persuade us, though I wouldn't 100% rule her out. I fully expect Spencer to be back when Oscar nods are read out, but I'm not sure who of the non-Janney/Metcalf crew I'd leave out. I hope to see Mudbound over the next few days, so I can concur or disagree with the consensus here that her nominations are baffling. If she's left out at this point, though, you can bet there'll be an uproar from people who tastes are formed politically rather than esthetically. Chau turns up again, once more confounding the Payne-despisers. And Hunter gets a much-needed mention that keeps her alive. I'm mostly in agreement with BJ's "it'll be from this group", except -- sight unseen by me -- I'm thinking Lesley Manville has a shot, if Phantom Thread (obviously unseen by this group) appeals to a limited but passionate PTA-loving chunk of the electorate.

So...now we're in hibernation till after New Years. The year remains blissfully up in the air. Let's hope it lasts a long time.

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Re: SAG Nominations and Predictions

Postby OscarGuy » Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:27 pm

Re: the Steve Carell/Emma Stone question. There's one fact that few people tend to remember/acknowledge with SAG. SAG is made up of actors from both television and film. There is a disproportionately larger number of TV members than there are film members. As such, Steve Carell, who was an Emmy and SAG favorite for The Office (6 Emmy noms, 6 SAG nominations as both an actor and part of The Office ensemble), I suspect his inclusion is due to the TV membership bias rather than any particular fondness for Battle of the Sexes.

I suspect the Call Me by Your Name snubs may have come down to SPC's botching of the campaign.
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Re: SAG Nominations and Predictions

Postby FilmFan720 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:19 pm

If your interested, Julia Louis Dreyfuss surpassed Alec Baldwin to become the second most nominated person in SAG history, one behind Edie Falco. She could tie or even surpass Baldwin/Juliana Marguiles as the most wins ever this year if she wins one or two of her awards.
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Re: SAG Nominations and Predictions

Postby Sabin » Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:06 pm

The Original BJ wrote
SAG has long had a history of overlooking the very late releases, which I think is the best explanation for the omissions of Phantom Thread and The Post this morning. (The latter, especially, has a huge cast full of famous people -- I think that would have been an easy ensemble nomination had the movie been released in September.)

'Django Unchained' immediately leaps to mind. We discounted Christoph Waltz's chances because he didn't get a nomination, then immediately applied that reasoning to Sylvester Stallone for 'Creed' though in retrospect that film was in wide release before Thanksgiving. These two films fall squarely in the former camp...

To address your later point, the last chance we have to gauge Hanks' strength is at the BAFTAs. Chalamet, Day-Lewis, and Oldman are all but certain nominees. Franco is probably in too. Daniel Kaluuya is British so he probably has a better chance than some would imagine. However, they haven't nominated Denzel Washington once so it's unlikely they give him his first for 'Roman J. Israel, Esq.'

Best Actor is going to be a mystery until the end.

The Original BJ wrote
I imagine Streep replaces Dench in the Best Actress derby (and despite finding Streep's citation a bit by default, I think she's way ahead of Dench's leftovers).

The only surprise to me is that she got in over Emma Stone. If Steve Carell has fans for 'Battle of the Sexes,' then why wouldn't Emma Stone for an infinitely superior performance?

The Original BJ wrote
For me, Supporting Actor contained probably the worst surprise of the morning (Steve Carell is NOT a supporting actor!) and the best (Woody Harrelson!) in addition to the three expected names. This race still seems very amorphous to me, given the divergence in Globe/SAG slates, and the fact that there's still the possibility another name (Stuhlbarg, Shannon) might surprise with Oscar.

The BAFTAs are only going to confuse the race further. This is going to be a totally wide open race like 2015, which is probably how it should be this year. But agreed, Carell is neither a supporting actor nor a good one.

The Original BJ wrote
Tiffany Haddish's campaign is most likely dead at this point. I imagine Supporting Actress will come down to the six women collectively cited by this week's groups, and one of Blige/Chau/Hunter/Spencer will be left off. I'll probably still doubt Blige until the nomination happens, but one can't deny she's received all the important precursors.

Well, the Golden Globes don't matter. There's zero crossover with the Academy. It matters more if the BAFTAs nominate her, which, y'know, who knows? But this enthusiasm for Mary J. Blige is baffling.

I just got the screener for 'Downsizing' so until I can assess Hong Chau's chances, I'll punt on guessing which one gets left off.

The Original BJ wrote
One thing about the Best Picture conversation that's worth noting. For as much as we view Director and Screenplay as hugely important categories to do well in if you want to win Best Picture, a lot of this year's candidates don't seem to be hitting BOTH sweet spots. It's easy to imagine a scenario where Nolan and Del Toro are the strongest Director candidates, for their films' technical prowess, but The Shape of Water is pretty iffy even as a nominee in Original Screenplay, and I think Dunkirk is way on the sidelines in that category. But the strongest Screenplay candidates (and the ones with the crucial SAG Ensemble citations today) are Get Out, Lady Bird, and Three Billboards, a few of which (possibly even all of which) could be boxed out from even directing nominations. This could be one reason why it seems so tricky to settle on a film or two as potential frontrunners.

You're right about 'The Shape of Water''s screenwriting chances. Del Toro does have a screenwriting credit to his resume for 'Pan's Labyrinth,' but in a much weaker year. I haven't seen 'The Post' yet but everyone I know who has seen it is not impressed with its writing. However, the launch of Liz Hannah's career is such a story, I doubt they'll miss a chance to honor the film. 'Get Out,' 'Lady Bird,' and 'Three Billboards...' are locks. So, it comes down to 'The Big Sick' and 'The Shape of Water.' 'The Big Sick' is clearly more of a writer's film and Kumail Nanjiani & Emily V. Gordon have an adorable story. They could absolutely elbow out 'The Shape of Water.' And right now, that's my prediction. If 'The Shape of Water' can't get an ensemble nomination over 'The Big Sick' or 'Mudbound,' that's not a great sign.
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Re: SAG Nominations and Predictions

Postby The Original BJ » Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:43 pm

SAG has long had a history of overlooking the very late releases, which I think is the best explanation for the omissions of Phantom Thread and The Post this morning. (The latter, especially, has a huge cast full of famous people -- I think that would have been an easy ensemble nomination had the movie been released in September.)

This also means we don't really get much of a clue of Hanks's strength in the Best Actor race. I thought him an iffy prospect -- he could have been left out here even if Streep/Ensemble placed -- but the likelihood that too many voters just didn't see the movie keeps him a question mark. This nod is a big get for Daniel Kaluuya -- he's been hovering just outside most people's prediction lists at this point, so making a precursor list of five is huge. I haven't seen Washington's vehicle yet, but after Globe AND SAG nods, and the actor's beloved status in the industry, it seems that we have to take him a lot more seriously than most of us thought a few days ago.

I imagine Streep replaces Dench in the Best Actress derby (and despite finding Streep's citation a bit by default, I think she's way ahead of Dench's leftovers).

For me, Supporting Actor contained probably the worst surprise of the morning (Steve Carell is NOT a supporting actor!) and the best (Woody Harrelson!) in addition to the three expected names. This race still seems very amorphous to me, given the divergence in Globe/SAG slates, and the fact that there's still the possibility another name (Stuhlbarg, Shannon) might surprise with Oscar.

Tiffany Haddish's campaign is most likely dead at this point. I imagine Supporting Actress will come down to the six women collectively cited by this week's groups, and one of Blige/Chau/Hunter/Spencer will be left off. I'll probably still doubt Blige until the nomination happens, but one can't deny she's received all the important precursors.

One thing about the Best Picture conversation that's worth noting. For as much as we view Director and Screenplay as hugely important categories to do well in if you want to win Best Picture, a lot of this year's candidates don't seem to be hitting BOTH sweet spots. It's easy to imagine a scenario where Nolan and Del Toro are the strongest Director candidates, for their films' technical prowess, but The Shape of Water is pretty iffy even as a nominee in Original Screenplay, and I think Dunkirk is way on the sidelines in that category. But the strongest Screenplay candidates (and the ones with the crucial SAG Ensemble citations today) are Get Out, Lady Bird, and Three Billboards, a few of which (possibly even all of which) could be boxed out from even directing nominations. This could be one reason why it seems so tricky to settle on a film or two as potential frontrunners.

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Re: SAG Nominations and Predictions

Postby ThePianist » Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:37 pm

God. I hope BAFTA is going to make these categories a LOT easier.

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Re: SAG Nominations and Predictions

Postby MaxWilder » Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:25 pm

Yay, no Streep! SAG voters decided to make all 5 slots available this year. :D

I guess that’s it for Haddish. :cry: Blige was seemingly nominated in her place. I still couldn’t be less interested in seeing Mudbound.

Carell has to be the biggest surprise. I thought he was fine but didn’t see this coming. Does this mean Emma Stone finished 6/7th?

Caleb Landry Jones (cast nominee) should, for his work in Get Out and American Made, get a special award for Outstanding Performance: Despicable Characters.

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Re: SAG Nominations and Predictions

Postby ThePianist » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:57 am

With the lone Globe Nom for Oldman as his films generates zero passion, and CMBYN seemingly flopping in the major precursors; this Best Actor race is getting too weak--like, unfathomably weak. :? I honestly won't be too surprised if the Oscar just weightlessly sledded to Chalamet.

Someone pointed out to me months ago that the homosexual/underage sexual misconduct allegations (ala; Spacey) could hurt this film. As more than several pointed to Fox News. I (of course) doubted him. And let's face it: Conservative Fox News won't touch the uber-liberal Academy. But If It were to come to some sort of backlash, they'd listen to their acquaintances, or "figureheads" within the industry. And alas; the Indiegogo Con-Artist Corey Feldman has more than a few uninformed words to say on the film. Yeah, the winds seem to be turning here. Not that they'd listen to him; but It's all about bad buzz and the pure toxicity around it that's generated by their peers (such as Feldman.)

Now, I suppose it all depends on how BAFTA and DGA receives the film.

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Re: SAG Nominations and Predictions

Postby ThePianist » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:56 am

Jefforey Smith wrote:I wonder what the implications are for Armie Hammer & Michael Stuhlbarg being overlooked in Supporting Actor for CMBYN?


Both? A big maybe. Either/Or? Very Likely.

Armie has the bigger role, and he's been campaigning like a mad dog. Stuhlbarg hasn't gotten any critics' awards nor any precursors. So I suppose Hammer is in.

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Re: SAG Nominations and Predictions

Postby Sabin » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:37 am

Jefforey Smith wrote
I wonder what the implications are for Armie Hammer & Michael Stuhlbarg being overlooked in Supporting Actor for CMBYN?

We'll have a better idea when the BAFTA's release their nominations but we're looking at a year like 2015 where the race was completely wide open and it was anyone's guess. My thinking is Armie Hammer will probably squeak out a nomination but won't win.
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Re: SAG Nominations and Predictions

Postby Jefforey Smith » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:33 am

I wonder what the implications are for Armie Hammer & Michael Stuhlbarg being overlooked in Supporting Actor for CMBYN?

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Re: SAG Nominations and Predictions

Postby ThePianist » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:29 am

Sabin wrote:Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Film
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
Logan
War for the Planet of the Apes
Wonder Woman


Yeah, sorry bout that. :P

Dunkirk probably has it in the bag.

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Re: SAG Nominations and Predictions

Postby ThePianist » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:21 am

Tumblr Stans on AW are dismissing Three Billboards chances in favor of 'Ladybird.' Which makes perfect sense. The bias is too real.

It comes down between those 2 films.

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Re: SAG Nominations and Predictions

Postby Sabin » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:08 am

Because they're not listed here...

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Film
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
Logan
War for the Planet of the Apes
Wonder Woman

Good for 'The Big Sick.' It's back in the game.

Also, 'Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri' which came off of a bad week with the critics with about as good a week with the Hollywood Foreign Press and the Screen Actor's Guild as one could hope. With three other nominations, it looks like Frances McDormand will win the award which is very good for her chances at the Oscars.

And of course, a good day for 'Lady Bird' and 'Get Out.'

Less good for Tiffany Haddish. This is very bad for her chances. Both 'The Shape of Water' and 'Call Me By Your Name' did not do well either.

So, that means that Best Picture is likely between 'Get Out,' 'Lady Bird,' and 'Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.'

It sounds like voters didn't have time to see 'Phantom Thread' or 'The Post so they get a pass.
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