Pre-Christmas Look at the Top Races

Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 15728
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Re: Pre-Christmas Look at the Top Races

Postby Big Magilla » Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:45 pm

mlrg wrote:No mention of Daniel Kaluya or Woody Harrelson?


Both are possible, but I'm not seeing them in my cloudy crystal ball.
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

mlrg
Adjunct
Posts: 1111
Joined: Tue Dec 07, 2004 11:19 am
Location: Lisbon, Portugal

Re: Pre-Christmas Look at the Top Races

Postby mlrg » Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:31 pm

Big Magilla wrote:My gut tells me that The Post, Call Me By Your Name, Lady Bird, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Shape of Water, Get Out and Dunkirk, though not necessarily in that order, will all be nominated for Best Picture. After that, it's a bit of a blur, but anything other than Phantom Thread, The Florida Project, The Big Sick or Darkest Hour being taken along for the ride would surprise me. Sorry, Mudbound, but I just don't think there's an appetite for nominating anything from Netflix for Best Picture. In time, maybe, but not this year.

Best Director will be some combination of the directors of the first seven I mentioned. It will probably remain a nail-biter even after the DGA announces.

Best Actor is still a two-man race between Gary Oldman and Timothée Chalamet. Daniel-Day Lewis is likely, but not guaranteed. Beyond that, late blooming James Franco and perennial Denzel Washington seem the likeliest of the also-rans with Tom Hanks possibly getting a make-up nomination for being passed over numerous times since 2000. The always ignored Jake Gyllenhaal might have a chance, but it's a slim one.

Best Actress can always spring a surprise, but I can't see either Frances McDormand, Saoirse Ronan or Sally Hawkins being overlooked. Meryl Streep is also likely, with Margot Robbie the weakest of those most mentioned. I can see Judi Dench taking the fifth slot for what I had thought might be her last starring role, although with her getting yet another shot at the brass ring next year for Red Joan, her supporters may want to wait for something that could be a more substantial role for her down the road.

Supporting Actor was pretty much a five-way race between Willem Dafoe, Armie Hammer, Richard Jenkins, Sam Rockwell and Michael Stuhlbarg, until Christopher Plummer impressed everyone with his yeoman-like replacement of Kevin Spacey in All the Money in the World. Who, if anyone, will he replace? Probably early favorite Stuhlbarg.

Supporting Actress remains the most volatile category with only Laurie Metaclf and Allison Janney virtually guaranteed. My crystal ball, which probably needs a good cleaning, sees Holly Hunter, Lois Smith and Octavia Spencer as the other three nominees, with Hong Chao in the critically lambasted Downsizing and Mary J. Blige in Netflix's Mudbound still possible.


No mention of Daniel Kaluya or Woody Harrelson?

Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 15728
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Re: Pre-Christmas Look at the Top Races

Postby Big Magilla » Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:27 pm

My gut tells me that The Post, Call Me By Your Name, Lady Bird, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Shape of Water, Get Out and Dunkirk, though not necessarily in that order, will all be nominated for Best Picture. After that, it's a bit of a blur, but anything other than Phantom Thread, The Florida Project, The Big Sick or Darkest Hour being taken along for the ride would surprise me. Sorry, Mudbound, but I just don't think there's an appetite for nominating anything from Netflix for Best Picture. In time, maybe, but not this year.

Best Director will be some combination of the directors of the first seven I mentioned. It will probably remain a nail-biter even after the DGA announces.

Best Actor is still a two-man race between Gary Oldman and Timothée Chalamet. Daniel-Day Lewis is likely, but not guaranteed. Beyond that, late blooming James Franco and perennial Denzel Washington seem the likeliest of the also-rans with Tom Hanks possibly getting a make-up nomination for being passed over numerous times since 2000. The always ignored Jake Gyllenhaal might have a chance, but it's a slim one.

Best Actress can always spring a surprise, but I can't see either Frances McDormand, Saoirse Ronan or Sally Hawkins being overlooked. Meryl Streep is also likely, with Margot Robbie the weakest of those most mentioned. I can see Judi Dench taking the fifth slot for what I had thought might be her last starring role, although with her getting yet another shot at the brass ring next year for Red Joan, her supporters may want to wait for something that could be a more substantial role for her down the road.

Supporting Actor was pretty much a five-way race between Willem Dafoe, Armie Hammer, Richard Jenkins, Sam Rockwell and Michael Stuhlbarg, until Christopher Plummer impressed everyone with his yeoman-like replacement of Kevin Spacey in All the Money in the World. Who, if anyone, will he replace? Probably early favorite Stuhlbarg.

Supporting Actress remains the most volatile category with only Laurie Metaclf and Allison Janney virtually guaranteed. My crystal ball, which probably needs a good cleaning, sees Holly Hunter, Lois Smith and Octavia Spencer as the other three nominees, with Hong Chao in the critically lambasted Downsizing and Mary J. Blige in Netflix's Mudbound still possible.
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

User avatar
flipp525
Laureate
Posts: 5830
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2003 7:44 am

Re: Pre-Christmas Look at the Top Races

Postby flipp525 » Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:22 pm

Sabin wrote:Would 1988 be an analogue for this year’s race?

Wasn’t there a rather random collection of Supporting Actress nominees that year? I seem to recall that being a “no one could have predicted” category.
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell

Sabin
Laureate
Posts: 7394
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: Pre-Christmas Look at the Top Races

Postby Sabin » Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:27 pm

Would 1988 be an analogue for this year’s race?
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

User avatar
Precious Doll
Tenured
Posts: 3470
Joined: Mon Jan 13, 2003 2:20 am
Location: Sydney
Contact:

Re: Pre-Christmas Look at the Top Races

Postby Precious Doll » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:52 am

I think another factor going for Get Out is that it has performed very well internationally as well as being very well received by foreign critics and audiences. It's story and the sub text that went with it travelled across borders and resonated with international audiences. Ballot papers from non US members will be placing this one pretty highly I would think.

As much as I love it I don't see The Florida Project going beyond a single nomination (and possible win) for Willem Dafoe. I was rather shocked when I saw it at a regular cinema last week with about one dozen other people, most of whom where openly hostile about the film when it finished. "It was too long" was one of the minor complaints. Others were expressing their disbelief that the film had received such "good reviews because it was a piece of shit"'. People, outside of festival or special screenings, tend to shuffle out and not say much and I can't recall such hostility at a general release screening.
"I have no interest in all of that. I find that all tabloid stupidity" Woody Allen, The Guardian, 2014, in response to his adopted daughter's allegations.

The Original BJ
Emeritus
Posts: 4203
Joined: Mon Apr 28, 2003 8:49 pm

Re: Pre-Christmas Look at the Top Races

Postby The Original BJ » Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:16 am

And you could extend this discussion to what you might call the on-the-bubble Best Picture contenders, too. The Big Sick could end up with Picture/Supporting Actress/Original Screenplay...or it could just as easily roll snake eyes. The Florida Project could end up with a decent enough haul in Picture/Director/Original Screenplay...or get a sole Supporting Actor nomination. And Mudbound could contend in Picture/Supporting Actress/Song/Cinematography...or Adapted Screenplay only.

I agree that Phantom Thread is the most extreme example, and actually had this thought while re-watching it last night. (I'm not even sure I'd say Day-Lewis is a sure bet, though he isn't the kind of actor the Academy is inclined to leave off, and is one of the stronger performances in contention.) Plus, I'm not sure the Guilds will really clarify this movie's strength -- it could very easily miss PGA/DGA/WGA, but then show up in all of those Oscar categories, just because it's the kind of movie (like The Tree of Life or Amour) that might have a tiny but powerful contingent of support in the Academy.

Even though I noted its softer Globe/SAG showings, I still have a pretty hard time seeing Call Me By Your Name miss a Best Picture nomination. I'd still rate it running ahead of Phantom Thread, The Florida Project, The Big Sick, Mudbound, and Darkest Hour at this point, and I can't really see more than two of those making the ultimate list (which is what I think would need to happen for CMBYN to not place in that 7th-9th place range.) It just seems to me that a movie that seems so solidly in the running to WIN Actor and a Screenplay category should have enough overall support to make the top lineup, though I guess we'll see.

It's possible I just like Get Out more overall than you, Mister Tee, but a question...should it get the bare minimum Picture/Screenplay/Editing nominations, would you consider that over-inflation? Because if we're talking movies within the Oscar conversation, that's pretty clearly a top ten effort for me, the inventive concept makes it a thoroughly deserving candidate even in a competitive Original Screenplay field, and it's cut with an obvious flair for suspense -- I wouldn't look at that haul as overkill. (Best Actor is kind of borderline for me, but given the paltry field, I basically come down on "who cares?" for how that race fills out.)

It seems to me that Get Out actually might be the closest example this year of a film that fits your rubric for many Best Picture winners past, in that it was one that excited both critics and audiences in a way that defined it as the film of the year in a cultural sense. (The only other film that would offer up competition on those terms would be the higher-grossing, even higher-praised Dunkirk, but I think you could argue that its impact as a cultural object wasn't as great.) Get Out was just such an event this year, with elements -- the title exclamation, the Sunken Place -- that became instant social references WAY beyond cinema circles. This is not to suggest the film is Schindler's List or The Return of the King in Oscar terms -- it clearly isn't, and I'm not even making the argument it'll be the ultimate Best Picture winner either. But I think the way Get Out went from a film that was barely on anyone's radar a week before it opened to instant cultural phenomenon is driving much of its awards success, which I guess could seem like overkill if one just isn't as high on the movie, but to me is quite understandable given its place in pop culture this year.

Mister Tee
Laureate
Posts: 6499
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 2:57 pm
Location: NYC
Contact:

Re: Pre-Christmas Look at the Top Races

Postby Mister Tee » Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:59 am

Okri, you've somewhat stolen my thunder -- I'd thought yesterday about how, thanks to an excess number of contenders, several late-arriving hot prospects, and the absolute lack of consensus among the various groups who've expressed preferences, we have an inordinate number of films whose possible number of nominations covers a wide range. And, I swear to you, Phantom Thread was my prime case, as well. I'd actually put the film's floor at 2 -- every review I've read suggests a costume design nod is as certain as Day-Lewis' -- both I agree with you at the other end, that the film could do way better, and pull in a haul one would normally associate with a front-runner.

But I think there are other films that could swing wildly, as well. To wit:

Would you bet rent money on The Post getting any more than film/actress? (Even the second isn't 100%, thanks to the stacked category.). Director is a nightmare. Original screenplay has too many candidates even without The Post. John Williams is of course WAY too likely to be nominated, but they might limit him to a Star Wars nod. But, contrarily, the film could get all of those, plus Hanks, editing, production design and, who knows, the sound categories? The film could crack double digits, or be limited to 2 or 3.

Then there's Call Me by Your Name. I'm only willing to commit to actor/screenplay. But, at the other extreme, it could get 1 or 2 supporting actors, film, director, cinematography, editing, and song (or even 2 songs).

Dunkirk and Shape of Water have higher floors, I'd say. Nolan's film is about certain for film, director, cinematography, editing, and both sounds. But, on a great day, it could get score, production design, visual effects, and I suppose even supporting actor.

Shape of Water has probably the highest floor of any film this year. I can't imagine it missing film, director, actress, supporting actor, cinematography, production design and score. But supporting actress, screenplay, editing, visual effects and one or both sounds are all within the realm of decent possibility. And, sure, maybe Michael Shannon can once again catch people off-guard.

Throw in Darkest Hour, which I mostly see as likely to get just actor/make-up, but which in its dreams might aspire to cinematography, production design, costumes, score and a throw-in best picture.

The two newbie breakout films, from what I see, operate within a narrower range. Lady Bird seems a lock for film, actress, suporting actress and screenplay. But beyond that, director and maybe editing are about its only shots.

Similar with Get Out, which I can see turning up with a bare three nods (film, screenplay and editing), but even at best not expanding to much beyond actor and director. (It's a subject for another, more elaborate post, and no doubt indicative of my creeping old-fart-ness, but I really don't get what feels to me like the major over-inflation of Get Out. I like the movie as a fun genre piece; I don't see it as a major effort.)

To return to my main point, though...I think the fact that so many of this year's prime candidates have so wide a range of nomination possibilities is a tribute to how strong the year has turned out. It's certainly possible the upcoming Guilds will clear this picture up. But, for the moment, I'm thinking it might mean a rather more suspenseful nominations morning than usual.

ON EDIT: I realized I left out Three Bilboards. That, too, has a range -- I'd bet on film, actreess, supporting actor and screenplay. But a second supporting actor, director, editing and maybe score are very possible.

Sabin
Laureate
Posts: 7394
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: Pre-Christmas Look at the Top Races

Postby Sabin » Thu Dec 28, 2017 12:54 am

Okri wrote
What about something like Detroit for film editing? Suspense-type elements, awarded editor, not quite as small as many of the best picture contenders.

It's possible, but the film flopped half a year ago. I doubt it. Also, it sounds like it has pacing issues.

Okri wrote
I'm intrigued if Hong Chau actually continues her awards run. Downsizing appears to be flopping every which way, but her performance in the precursors has been quite strong. It's even more unusual for an unknown supporting performer to make the line-up without a strong supporting film, so that's even more impressive. Assuming that Metcalf and Janney are way out in front and Spencer along with her best picture nominee, I can imagine Chau emerging ahead of Blige/Hunter. Another name to throw out that I've heard someone mention - Catherine Keener for Get Out.

Yeah, I haven't seen 'Downsizing' yet, but the performance that her tally reminds me of is Nicole Kidman in 'The Paperboy.' Are voters really going to watch this film? I don't know. I'll throw someone else from 'Get Ou't who definitely deserves a nomination: Allison Williams.

Okri wrote
You know, while I'm not THAT surprised Shannon isn't doing that well in the precursors, it's weird that we've seemed to drop him from the prediction race, especially if TSoW goes over as big as some are expecting. He's done well without any precursors before, after all.

I don't think Michael Shannon is very special in 'The Shape of Water' but he has a big, plot-driving role and in some ways his nomination makes more sense than for Woody Harrelson. I think he's absolutely in the running for a nomination.

Okri wrote
You know what would be awesome? Get Out winning National Society. I think I'd predict it right now.

I'm split between 'Get Out' and 'The Shape of Water.' I think both are very likely.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

Okri
Tenured
Posts: 2609
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:28 pm
Location: Edmonton, AB

Re: Pre-Christmas Look at the Top Races

Postby Okri » Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:32 pm

Okay, some more thoughts before the next precursor deluge


  • What about something like Detroit for film editing? Suspense-type elements, awarded editor, not quite as small as many of the best picture contenders.
  • I tend to agree that Janney's an awards magnet, winning emmys past one's prime is basically how the emmys work, in fairness
  • I'm intrigued if Hong Chau actually continues her awards run. Downsizing appears to be flopping every which way, but her performance in the precursors has been quite strong. It's even more unusual for an unknown supporting performer to make the line-up without a strong supporting film, so that's even more impressive. Assuming that Metcalf and Janney are way out in front and Spencer along with her best picture nominee, I can imagine Chau emerging ahead of Blige/Hunter. Another name to throw out that I've heard someone mention - Catherine Keener for Get Out.
  • You know, while I'm not THAT surprised Shannon isn't doing that well in the precursors, it's weird that we've seemed to drop him from the prediction race, especially if TSoW goes over as big as some are expecting. He's done well without any precursors before, after all.
  • I really have no idea about The Phantom Thread. I can predict 1 (Day-Lewis) up to high single digits (director/screenplay/editing/picture/supporting actress/score/costume design/production design) and any combination seems plausible.
  • Sabin's comment about best picture nominees dominating best editing is really intriguing.
  • You know what would be awesome? Get Out winning National Society. I think I'd predict it right now.
  • Man, the BFCA must be really annoyed this year! Long may it continue

Sabin
Laureate
Posts: 7394
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: Pre-Christmas Look at the Top Races

Postby Sabin » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:44 pm

Wes, thank you for posting this link. If you were to ask me what movie raked in the most Best Picture wins this year, I wouldn't have said 'Get Out.' I know that not all of these groups are on the same level as NYFCC, but it's still interesting.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

User avatar
OscarGuy
Site Admin
Posts: 12546
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:22 am
Location: Springfield, MO
Contact:

Re: Pre-Christmas Look at the Top Races

Postby OscarGuy » Wed Dec 27, 2017 4:44 pm

Dunkirk isn't doing great down-ballot in most of these groups. Blade Runner 2049 is making a solid play with many of them. Here's the tallies as they stand today.

http://www.cinemasight.com/awards-history/90th-academy-awards-2017/90th-academy-awards-2017-precursor-tallies/

As a point of fact, Dunkirk has won four editing prizes, not two.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin

Sabin
Laureate
Posts: 7394
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: Pre-Christmas Look at the Top Races

Postby Sabin » Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:14 pm

Mister Tee wrote
As much as I denigrate those lower-tier critics' groups, I always check them to see where the hive-mind is going. And I note that of 7 groups that gave out an editing award this year, 5 chose Baby Driver. 2, including the more important LA, went with Dunkirk.

I haven't been paying attention to those lower-tier groups so I had no idea. I would've banked on 'Dunkirk' making a clean sweep. I'm not much of a fan of either film, but I'm glad to hear this.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

Mister Tee
Laureate
Posts: 6499
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 2:57 pm
Location: NYC
Contact:

Re: Pre-Christmas Look at the Top Races

Postby Mister Tee » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:24 pm

Sabin wrote:
Mister Tee wrote
I hadn't really noticed, till you said it here, that editing has become so wholly subsumed by best picture politics (it was always somewhat related, but the years since the expansion takes it to the extreme). All the more amazing, in, that Girl with the Dragon Tattoo won the category, when even snagging the nomination was a long-shot.

Back in 2014, there were about seven films in competition for Best Film Editing. 'American Sniper,' 'Birdman,' 'Boyhood,' 'Gone Girl,' 'The Grand Budapest Hotel,' 'The Imitation Game,' and 'Whiplash.' That was about it. A few of the films were big question marks. 'Birdman' was one seamless take, but it took expert editing to make that happen. Sure, 'Boyhood' was edited over the course of twelve years, but a lot of people thought at least ten minutes could've been cut. You'd think from that lineup that 'Gone Girl' should be safe. The last two David Fincher films had won Best Film Editing, so 'Gone Girl' should've at least been safe for a nomination...

'Gone Girl' stiffed, didn't make the Best Picture lineup, and wasn't even nominated for Best Film Editing.

Something you said earlier, Tee, I forget the context exactly, was that we had to keep in mind that we were looking at a surplus of contenders. In 2011, 'The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo' was nominated against 'The Artist,' 'The Descendants,' 'Hugo,' and 'Moneyball.' Not a sterling group. In a more competitive year, maybe 'The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo' wouldn't be nominated. This year's crop seems moderately strong, so I'm inclined to bet against an outlier like 'Baby Driver.'


As much as I denigrate those lower-tier critics' groups, I always check them to see where the hive-mind is going. And I note that of 7 groups that gave out an editing award this year, 5 chose Baby Driver. 2, including the more important LA, went with Dunkirk.

It may be that you're right, that the propensity of the expanded-best picture-field era is toward clustering around best picture nominees in this category. (You could also argue that the strain of having to nominate so many films has oriented all voting around the best picture hopefuls, and has cost fringe candidates under acting or screenwriting potential nods.). I'm just saying I think Baby Driver is exactly the sort of film the editors have been prone to selecting in the past, even when it meant going far afield -- a high-grossing film with extremely flashy editing. We'll see if that tradition is fully dead, or can be brought back by a hit enough candidate.

Sabin
Laureate
Posts: 7394
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: Pre-Christmas Look at the Top Races

Postby Sabin » Tue Dec 26, 2017 2:20 am

Mister Tee wrote
I hadn't really noticed, till you said it here, that editing has become so wholly subsumed by best picture politics (it was always somewhat related, but the years since the expansion takes it to the extreme). All the more amazing, in, that Girl with the Dragon Tattoo won the category, when even snagging the nomination was a long-shot.

Back in 2014, there were about seven films in competition for Best Film Editing. 'American Sniper,' 'Birdman,' 'Boyhood,' 'Gone Girl,' 'The Grand Budapest Hotel,' 'The Imitation Game,' and 'Whiplash.' That was about it. A few of the films were big question marks. 'Birdman' was one seamless take, but it took expert editing to make that happen. Sure, 'Boyhood' was edited over the course of twelve years, but a lot of people thought at least ten minutes could've been cut. You'd think from that lineup that 'Gone Girl' should be safe. The last two David Fincher films had won Best Film Editing, so 'Gone Girl' should've at least been safe for a nomination...

'Gone Girl' stiffed, didn't make the Best Picture lineup, and wasn't even nominated for Best Film Editing.

Something you said earlier, Tee, I forget the context exactly, was that we had to keep in mind that we were looking at a surplus of contenders. In 2011, 'The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo' was nominated against 'The Artist,' 'The Descendants,' 'Hugo,' and 'Moneyball.' Not a sterling group. In a more competitive year, maybe 'The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo' wouldn't be nominated. This year's crop seems moderately strong, so I'm inclined to bet against an outlier like 'Baby Driver.'
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver


Return to “90th Predictions and Precursors”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest