DGA Predix

Okri
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Re: DGA Predix

Postby Okri » Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:05 am

Yeah, I think Sabin and BJ are right. I think Phantom Thread will approach double digits come nomination day, but I think Focus is aggressively targeting AMPAS beyond the Guilds. I will rage endlessly about SPC's poor handling of Call Me By Your Name and think it'll do well to match The Kids Are Alright come nomination day. I don't know if The Post is just really under-seen at this point (nothing from the guilds) or if it's just not generating much enthusiasm.

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Re: DGA Predix

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:49 am

Sounds about right, and, no, Gerwig is not eligible for First Time Feature Film.
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Re: DGA Predix

Postby anonymous1980 » Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:44 pm

I'll give it a whirl.

OUTSTANDING DIRECTORIAL ACHIEVEMENT IN FEATURE FILM
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

OUTSTANDING DIRECTORIAL ACHIEVEMENT - FIRST TIME FEATURE FILM
Andy Serkis, Breathe
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman
Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game
Jason Hall, Thank You For Your Service

Does anyone know if Gerwig is eligible for First Time Feature Film despite the fact she co-directed a feature film in the past?

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Re: DGA Predix

Postby Mister Tee » Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:41 pm

I generally agree with the idea that the DGA is a path-of-least-resistance nomination, so there's no need to go looking for outre candidates -- if one or two of those (Guadagnino, Baker or Anderson) enter the picture, it will be through the directors' branch with AMPAS, not here. (Note: a month ago, I wouldn't have put Guadagnino in that group -- I thought he'd be a mainstream candidate -- but this has been a touch stretch for the film.)

But I do think Spielberg has slight potential to crash the obvious-five you're all advocating, and the precedent I'm thinking of is not Amistad, but Munich. By the time the DGA list came out in early '06, Munich had been disappointing massively -- missing Writers Guild and Producers Guild mentions; not even getting in for Dramatic Film at the Globes (though it did get director). People were speaking of the film in the past tense. And then it made the DGA five, and followed that up by making it into best picture/director at the Oscars (at a time when there were only five in best picture). Maybe that was closer to Spielberg's heyday (he was DGA-nominated on almost every conceivable occasion from 1975 through then), and his time has now passed. But The Post strikes me as a big enough project (bigger than Bridge of Spies, definitely) for his cronies to come through one more time.

What might he displace? Well, Nolan and del Toro seem the core of the race, and Three Billboards is too essential a best picture candidate to leave out, and Lady Bird feels like it's turning into the same...so, I'd have to say Get Out is the one most vulnerable to missing if Spielberg crashes the party. Yes, I understand how bad the optics would be there...but the DGA who nominated Tyldum and Eastwood in 2014 wouldn't be likely to care much about that.

And, just getting it out there: I'm guessing the DGA list could end up feeling as tangential to this year's Oscars as the 2012 list did, once we've got to the Oscar slate.

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Re: DGA Predix

Postby criddic3 » Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:11 pm

Sabin wrote:Then why didn't they nominate 'Bridge of Spies?'


Well even the National Board of Review hasn't given a nod to every Clint Eastwood movie, but we all know they love him. Similarly, not every Spielberg movie is going to get in with the DGA. I think Bridge of Spies was just out of it that year, hence it missing director and actor at the Oscars despite getting in best picture. In that sense, your earlier comment matching The Post to that scenario is very apt.
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Re: DGA Predix

Postby Sabin » Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:08 pm

Then why didn't they nominate 'Bridge of Spies?'
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Re: DGA Predix

Postby criddic3 » Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:04 pm

Sabin wrote:If you're looking for a flaw in my predictions, who did they nominate in 1997? Brooks, Cameron, Hanson, Van Sant...and Steven Spielberg for 'Amistad.'

The real question is whether or not they like 'Get Out' or damn it with the faint praise of Best First Feature. I genuinely wonder if this is a group that's really going to honor Greta Gerwig AND Jordan Peele.


I personally loved Amistad, which was in my own list that year, so i don't think it was just cronyism. They just respect Spielberg a lot.
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Re: DGA Predix

Postby criddic3 » Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:01 pm

Director

Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

** Yes, I guess I'm basically agreeing with Sabin here, though Steven Spielberg certainly could swap with one of the above. Unless Peele is relegated to the first-timers category (which I've decided they might do), this may well be the slate.

First Time

Jason Hall, Thank You for Your Service
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Andy Serkis, Breathe
Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game
Jessica M. Thompson, The Light of the Moon
Last edited by criddic3 on Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: DGA Predix

Postby Sabin » Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:54 pm

If you're looking for a flaw in my predictions, who did they nominate in 1997? Brooks, Cameron, Hanson, Van Sant...and Steven Spielberg for 'Amistad.' They were not lacking for alternatives. Heck, they could've gone for Barry Levinson for 'Wag the Dog.' But they went with Steven Spielberg for a movie nobody would put in the upper-half of his oeuvre instead of countless other contenders. Why did they do it? Maybe most of the alternatives were young blood and there's a lot of cronyism going around.

The real question is whether or not they like 'Get Out' or damn it with the faint praise of Best First Feature. I genuinely wonder if this is a group that's really going to honor Greta Gerwig AND Jordan Peele.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: DGA Predix

Postby The Original BJ » Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:32 pm

This morning, I was thinking about this, and I pretty much share your thoughts. I think the nominees will be Del Toro, Gerwig, McDonagh, Nolan, and Peele, as these are the five films that (to me) seem to be running strongest right now, and that's generally what the DGA reflects. Oscar may be more likely to throw a wacky bone into the mix, like Anderson or Baker, but I'd be shocked if either of them made it here. The closest alternates would have to be Guadagnino and Spielberg, but the former's film seems to have dipped a bit below top-five range, and frankly, so has the latter's. I know it's unwise to bet against Spielberg, but The Post has had a rocky week, missing WGA, and coming up empty last night at the Globes. I'm not sure how much the DGA cares about not just nominating a bunch of old white guys, but if they do, a nomination for Spielberg/The Post would be about as unnecessary a nomination for a white guy who has already been amply rewarded as one could find.

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DGA Predix

Postby Sabin » Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:11 pm

In three days, the DGA nominations are going to come out. Considering that two of the rising Best Picture contenders are historically unlikely contenders ('Get Out' and 'Lady Bird') the nominees have the potential to be consequential. Let's look at the candidates:

CALL ME BY YOUR NAME / Luca Guadagnino
DUNKIRK / Christopher Nolan
GET OUT / Jordan Peele
LADY BIRD / Greta Gerwig
THE POST / Steven Spielberg
THE SHAPE OF WATER / Guillermo Del Toro
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI / Martin McDonagh

It's entirely possible that a movie like The Big Sick, Darkest Hour, The Florida Project, I, Tonya, Mudbound, or Phantom Thread could sneak in, but it doesn't seem incredibly likely.

The DGA have been a pretty predictable group. Looking backwards, there are only two surprising choices over the past ten years. Garth Davis for Lion and David Fincher for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Garth Davis seemed to benefit from an inability to sign off on Mel Gibson's redemption (which the Academy happily rubber-stamped). There is no Mel Gibson pariah figure this year, but the closest candidate to Davis would be Jordan Peele who is eligible for nominations for Best Feature and Best First Feature as well. It will look poorly on the DGA if they double-nominate Lion but not Get Out.

As for David Fincher...well, strolling back in memory lane, it could have been a few things. Tate Taylor was probably likelier for The Help, but it was such a milquetoast, anonymously directed film that few people really know who Tate Taylor was. In retrospect, it's a bit curious that Bennett Miller didn't get that spot instead for Moneyball. Their inability to recognize Terrence Malick would mirror the Academy's nomination one year later with Michael Haneke for Amour. And so they went with a previous nominee competently doing work that was likely beneath him. Nobody really comes to mind when I think of David Fincher. Maybe Steven Spielberg for The Post. But Terrence Malick's nomination from the Academy makes me think of Sean Baker for The Florida Project.

At least for purposes of predicting the DGA nominations, I see it coming down to these seven films. First and second should be Christopher Nolan for DUNKIRK (for his fourth nomination) and Guillermo Del Toro for THE SHAPE OF WATER (his first). I'm inclined to put Greta Gerwig next for LADY BIRD simply for one reason: it's on a roll. It seems to be charming everybody and over-performing at almost every turn: box office, critics, etc, with only two bumps in the road with the Hollywood Foreign Press and Film Independent.

So, that's three. I'm having an easier time coming up with reasons why two of the remaining four won't take it than the other way around. THE POST missing out on with the WGA and SAG points to weakness. They didn't nominate Spielberg for Bridge of Spies and I think The Post is closer to that film than Lincoln. I'm seeing CALL ME BY YOUR NAME tonight but I just don't get a sense that it's going to happen for that one either. So, while I have a difficult time reading the room with THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI, I think Martin McDonagh will follow in Kenneth Lonergan's footsteps on his third feature as well. Especially after its Golden Globe win. And even though GET OUT is eligible for Best First Feature, I think Jordan Peele will carry the day with two nominations.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver


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