Sabin wrote:I had a lengthy write up explaining why I thought Greta Gerwig had a chance, but then I read this “barely-meaningful stat” and hit delete.
You didn't need to delete it (and I'm glad I had a chance to read it before you did).
I actually think there's a non-zero chance that the female-ness of this moment could have an effect on this Oscar race, but it's not necessarily likely to show up at the Guild level. There was that well-publicized effort to diversify the Academy rolls, gender-and-racially, but I wasn't aware of any comparable move to do the same to the Guilds, so I assume they remain dominantly white male. Not that such a group would find it impossible to endorse a female narrative, but I wouldn't look for them to lead the way.
At the Academy, though...the idea of all these new invitees (and the purging of some inactive old folk) is to change the gestalt of the final results. We really don't know how deep the effect will be. A lot of people like to credit the Moonlight victory to the newbies, but I'm not fully persuaded: the same voters went pretty traditional in the other major categories, echoing Guild choices (if they'd, say, voted for Isabelle Huppert, I'd have been more impressed with their new level of hip-ness). It may just have been that Moonlight was more beloved than La La Land, not that voters were making a statement.
But I'm open to the idea these new voters will ultimately make such a statement, and we're now a year further into the membership expansion, plus living in a moment that feels ripe for some feminist expression. In short: it's not impossible Gerwig will be the beneficiary of these factors going forward...but I'd guess that'd happen on March 4th, not likely before.