Sabin wrote:Big Magilla wrote
As much as I'd like to, I can't completely rule out Streep, but Lawrence- no, Chastain- no, Stone - unless her film's box office is through the roof, no, as well.
Magilla, I'm with you on Jessica Chastain by virtue of the trailer, but why are you ruling out Jennifer Lawrence and Emma Stone? If Jennifer Lawrence can get a nomination for Joy, why not Mother! and Emma Stone looks fantastic in her film.
If anything, I think Judi Dench looks far shakier.
As Precious says, the trailer for Mother! looks awful. Enough with these ridiculous nominations for the over-rated Lawrence. Stone just won. Although a repeat nod for the previous year's winner is something that often occurs, in a year when the competition is as strong as it is this year, it's a bit tougher. As I said, though, if the box-office for her film goes through the roof, and it may, her chances will increase. Right now, I think the winner will be someone who hasn't won before - either Bening or Hawkins with Dench, McDormand and Winslet the likeliest repeaters. Then there's Ronan, who is clearly in the mode of sweet young things the Academy prefers to give its top honor to.
Bening would be the first "mature" winner since Julianne Moore, her co-star in The Kids Are Alright for which she was last nominated. There's that, plus some residual guilt for her failure to be nominated last year for 20th Century Women. Then there's that swoon-worthy Gloria Grahame voice she perfects in Film Stars, too delicious to be ignored.
Hawkins, at 41, would be the fourth best actress nominee in a mute performance in a talkie. All three previous nominees - Jane Wyman, Marlee Matlin and Holly Hunter won, so there's history on her side.
This could be one of those years in which the suspense lasts until the envelope is opened, provided, of course, that the avalanche of precursors doesn't coalesce around one actress early on.