PLEASE READ: My Fantasy Oscar League

For the films of 2018
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Re: PLEASE READ: My Fantasy Oscar League

Postby Sabin » Sun Nov 18, 2018 4:39 pm

My roster is:
Roma
The Favourite
Crazy Rich Asians
The Happy Prince
Christopher Robin
Stan & Ollie
Tully
A Private War
The Sister Brothers

Right out of the gate, I paid a lot for Roma and The Favourite ($40 each), then I dropped $1 for The Happy Prince (Bafta-draw), and got driven up a little more than I wanted to for Crazy Rich Asians ($10). My strategy during this point was suggesting NOTHING that I wanted. Instead, I put up BlacKKKlansman, Boy Erased, Beautiful Boy, and Annihilation in the hopes that people would over-respond to them (which they did). Unfortunately, because I overspent on Crazy Rich Asians thinking it would do well enough with the guilds and the Golden Globes. I was left with very little money. So I just waited people out. Then I grabbed Christopher Robin for $3 as a Bafta-draw (and poss. VFX nom), Stan & Ollie, Tully, A Private War, and The Sisters Brothers for $1. Which was just sort of how it turned out.

If anyone is interested in the rest of the draft...
My buddy Alex got First Man, Avengers Infinity War, The Wife, Incredibles 2, Cold War, Solo, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Support the Girls, All is True, and Thoroughbreds.

Rosenberg got Beautiful Boy, On the Basis of Sex, Vice, Wildlife, Suspiria, Boy Erased, Hereditary, Sorry to Bother You, The Nutcracker, and Jurassic World 2.

Evan got BlacKKKlansman, If Beale Street Could Talk, Ready Player One, The Death of Stalin, The Mule, Destroyer, Disobedience, Outlaw King, Lean on Pete, and The Grinch.

Tiffany got Vox Lux, Green Book, The Front Runner, Mary Queen of Scots, The Old Man and the Gun, Bohemian Rhapsody, Eighth Grade, The Hate U Give, Smallfoot, and Ant-Man and the Wasp.

Jono got Black Panther, Deadpool 2, Can You Ever Forgive Me, Fantastic Beasts 2, Colette, Annihilation, Isle of Dogs, Hotel Transylvania 3, A Quiet Place, and Leave No Trace.

Todd got A Star is Born... and that's about it. The rest was A Wrinkle in Time, Bird Box, Creed 2, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, At Eternity's Gate, Don't Worry He Won't Get Far on Foot, Mission Impossible Fallout, Everybody Knows, and Welcome to Marwen.

Trevor got Mary Poppins Returns, Paddington 2, Bread Factory, Widows, Blindspotting, Burning, First Reformed, Private Life, You Were Never Really Here, and Zama.
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Re: PLEASE READ: My Fantasy Oscar League

Postby Okri » Sun Nov 18, 2018 2:03 pm

re: Gosling

Yeah, I would be surprised to see him make it. Even if the film was a top tier contender, he'd still be an on-the-bubble candidate to me. Though now with the general underperformance of other films, I don't really know who stands to benefit.

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Re: PLEASE READ: My Fantasy Oscar League

Postby Sabin » Fri Nov 16, 2018 12:44 am

Precious Doll wrote
For the BAFTAs you may want to consider Rupert Everett for The Happy Prince (he has received some career best reviews for the film - justified at that) however on the downside as the BAFTAs try to mimic the Oscars he probably won't make the cut.

Noted. I will. I'm sure I could acquire that for very few points and it's likely to turn up four nominations.

I'm starting to think that Widows might be worth doubling down on. I haven't seen it yet but it seems like a contemporary Best Picture winner.

NOTE: having seen it, I hope not.
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Re: PLEASE READ: My Fantasy Oscar League

Postby Precious Doll » Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:30 am

Sabin wrote:I've just confirmed. Apparently, we are not doing the Spirit Awards in our tally, which sucks. On the other hand, it just makes it easier to measure the worth of each film with one exception...

The BAFTAs. What is a movie that could be up for multiple BAFTAs this year? Is there Pattington movie? Or A Private War? Something twee that they go for? The Wedding Guest?

Actually All Is True is now a worthwhile selection.


In a way that is just as well you aren't trying to predict the Spirit Awards. Every year they come up with selections that include a number of surprising 'wow thats a great unexpected pick, isn't that great' and 'wow I'm really surprised so and so didn't get nominated'. They are unpredictable because it appears that the people who vote for them are not herds of sheep like the Academy. They actually watch films and think for themselves.

For the BAFTAs you may want to consider Rupert Everett for The Happy Prince (he has received some career best reviews for the film - justified at that) however on the downside as the BAFTAs try to mimic the Oscars he probably won't make the cut.

For Foreign Language include Roma and Shoplifters for everything in that order. I suspect that the Globes & BAFTA will nominate Cold War but it may miss out on an Oscar nod. Capharnaüm may also come into play as Sony will be promoting the hell out of it. Personally, it the worst film I've sat through this year but audiences (and some critics) are lapping it up. Disclosure: I've only seen the version shown at Cannes - Sony have edited and trimmed the film so the version that will be judged will have some differences. To be far some minor changes can do completely change a film (54 is a prime example - the Harvey cut was dreadful, the directors cut very good). But I'm not going back for second helpings of Labaki's film. She can shove her misery porn and racist viewpoint for a film (though I honestly don't believe that was her intention, it just turned out that way because she is clueless - but she made the stinker) were the sun don't shine.
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Re: PLEASE READ: My Fantasy Oscar League

Postby Precious Doll » Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:21 am

OscarGuy wrote:A Star Is Born will do too well at the Globes to be ignored, but Bohemian Rhapsody will run up a couple of nods in the comedy/musical categories.



Seems Fox have submitted Bohemian Rhapsody for the drama category for the Globes, however, the Globes make the final decision which category films are placed in. Don't know if/when the Globes announce what films are in what categories:

https://www.indiewire.com/2018/10/golde ... 202010897/
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Re: PLEASE READ: My Fantasy Oscar League

Postby OscarGuy » Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:27 pm

Even if it were a Driving Miss Daisy-type film, I think it would be a DMD of 1989 caliber. Meaning that today, such a film would be ripped apart for being a lightweight version of a serious subject. I also think the narrative developing around that kind of thinking might result in Spike Lee taking it all for BlacKkKlansman as a way of avoiding the similar fate that befell Do the Right Thing. Would Hollywood really want to be considered milquetoast racist for something like this? After all, the backlash against the Popular Film Oscar was largely built around the ghettoization of Black Panther into that category to keep it out of the Best Picture race.
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Re: PLEASE READ: My Fantasy Oscar League

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:51 pm

I see Green Book as more of a Driving Miss Daisy than a Hidden Figures or The Help. Peter Farrell, like Bruce Beresford, could be left off the list of nominees for direction and it could still win Best Picture.

It's possible that A Star Is Born will get the most nominations and fail to win most of its categories. Bradley Cooper will not get more than four nominations. None of the songs he co-write is on the short list of songs submitted from the film of which there are three, all co-written by Lady Gaga and other composers and lyricists.
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Re: PLEASE READ: My Fantasy Oscar League

Postby The Original BJ » Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:04 pm

I’m not sure if any of this is going to help Sabin win his league, but a few thoughts/responses to the overall conversation that has developed.

I do think A Star is Born is the safest bet for “most nominations.” It might have been First Man, but the box office flameout suggests it might struggle above the line more than we might have initially thought. And although I do think The Favourite is poised to do well this season, its below-the-line ceiling seems low — it could easily be limited to Production/Costume Design among techs — which would make getting into double digits hard. Star is Born on the other hand, seems like it could get into double digits even if it misses something like Screenplay (which is very possible), with the combo of Pic, Director, 3 actors, 2 songs, Cinematography/Editing/Sound.

I do still question A Star is Born’s likelihood of steamrolling to the Best Picture prize, though. Many folks seem to look at the slate of films on offer and conclude that all of them have too many issues to be potential winners. And I’m not disagreeing that many of the candidates that have amassed enthusiasm seem like they have significant hurdles to actually winning (Roma, The Favourite, Widows, I’d have to throw Black Panther into that mix too honestly). But it strikes me that “this can’t win Best Pic because it doesn’t look like a winner on paper” feels like it’s based on a dated idea of what a winner looks like, when there are all sorts of recent winners that seemed like impossible victors due to budget/subject matter (Moonlight), genre (The Departed), box office (The Hurt Locker), etc. but prevailed because people were genuinely passionate about them. I think we should be open to the possibility that another movie has the potential to be a stronger contender than it might seem on paper.

Because, honestly, A Star is Born has a decent hurdle too — it’s hard to imagine being the umpteenth remake won’t engender some kind of backlash at some point in the season, and as Sabin has pointed out, being the front runner at this stage of the game can cause people to turn on you by February. Not saying enough voters WILL turn, but this movie seems to be a much weaker front runner than some seem to be acknowledging.

All of this has led some (Magilla just below, but Nathaniel Rogers has been echoing the sentiment as well on his site) to the conclusion that the winner might very well be Green Book. But I have an even more difficult time seeing that outcome. This reasoning seems to be based on the premise that Green Book is the most Oscar-friendly on paper — but I feel that that too is based on an old-fashioned assumption of what qualifies as Oscar friendly. Because Green Book’s big hurdle is going to be its reviews — it’s currently sitting at 69 on Metacritic, well below the level of acclaim typically needed to win — and the fact that it just would be SUCH a retro choice. I view Green Book as being in the tradition of The Help and Hidden Figures — crowd-pleasing but lightweight civil rights movies that got Best Picture nominations, but never seriously contended for the prize. (And in fact, both of those underperformed expectations, missing potential music nominations, Production/Costume Design, and The Help even missed in Screenplay.) I think it’s more in the 8th/9th Best Picture nominee range than something that’s going to go all the way.

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Re: PLEASE READ: My Fantasy Oscar League

Postby Sabin » Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:46 am

I've just confirmed. Apparently, we are not doing the Spirit Awards in our tally, which sucks. On the other hand, it just makes it easier to measure the worth of each film with one exception...

The BAFTAs. What is a movie that could be up for multiple BAFTAs this year? Is there Pattington movie? Or A Private War? Something twee that they go for? The Wedding Guest?

Actually All Is True is now a worthwhile selection.
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Re: PLEASE READ: My Fantasy Oscar League

Postby OscarGuy » Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:40 am

The Spirit Award nominations are the 16th, so your game is going to have a major issue if they count Spirit nominations.

Also consider Hereditary, which is sure to pick up some Spirit nominations, possibly Actress and screenplay there, maybe more. A Quiet Place might if it's eligible as well. The latter could pick up an Original Screenplay Oscar nomination as well.

A Star Is Born will do too well at the Globes to be ignored, but Bohemian Rhapsody will run up a couple of nods in the comedy/musical categories.

You might also think about trying to run up points in the Oscar tech categories & cinematography awards. Think First Man, Roma, The Favourite (only Costume Design, I'm afraid), Black Panther (Cinematography), Mary Poppins Returns, Mary Queen of Scots. And don't forget Animated Feature where Incredibles 2 will have stiff competition from Isle of Dogs with Ralph Breaks the Internet a potential spoiler.
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Re: PLEASE READ: My Fantasy Oscar League

Postby Sabin » Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:14 pm

Okay...

So, Oscar nominations are 2 points and Oscar wins are 4. That leads me to believe that if A Star is Born actually goes all the way, there is almost no hand that can beat it. Especially considering that I will be in competition with seven other people. It would take a strong hand of The Favourite, Roma, and Widows to come close...

However, I think that one advantage that I have is that for all intents and purposes, a movie like Sorry to Bother You or First Reformed might be worth more than people think.

Both First Reformed and Sorry to Bother You are likely to pick up five Indie Spirit nominations each, right? I might be able to get First Reformed for $5. That's five points. But I might be able to get Sorry to Bother You for $3. That's a bigger net. If I allocate $20 to running the table at the Indie Spirits with films like Leave No Trace, Lean on Pete, You Were Never Really Here might actually be worth something -- but I have a hunch that people will be fighting for Eighth Grade.

FilmFan is right. Can You Ever Forgive Me? could be a heavy here.
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Re: PLEASE READ: My Fantasy Oscar League

Postby Sabin » Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:56 pm

I'll list the rules here and then I'll post a thought next.

THE DRAFT

We'll all convene in a Google chat to divvy up the movies and make our teams. At the end, we'll all have 10 movies each. This will be an auction draft, which means we'll bid on the films we want. Everyone gets an imaginary $100 to spend on films. One at a time, we'll propose movies and bid on them. So if I want First Man, say, I'll propose it and bid, say, $5 on it. Everyone else can then counterbid, and it will go to the highest bidder. You can spend up to $100 on anything, but the more you spend on a single movie, the less you'll have for your other nine picks. Make sense?

THE GAMES

The "games" are different award groups/ceremonies. There are two kinds: the nomination announcements and the winner announcements. I've made a list of all 30 "games." It is attached. The season runs from late November (ideally the first game will be the Indie Spirit nominations next Friday) to late February (Oscar night). We all have the opportunity to score points from our movies from every game.

THE POINTS

Unlike in some Fantasy sports leagues, we won't be facing off against each other 1 on 1. It'll just be a point tally all season, with every "game" adding to your total. The winner at the end of the season will be the person with the most points.

Every nomination in every category will net you 1 point. So if you have First Man and it scores 8 Golden Globe nominations, you get 8 points for that. Note that if your film scores multiple nominations in one category, you get points for all of them. So if First Man got two Supporting Actor Golden Globe nominations, for example, you'd get 2 points.

Meanwhile, every award win will net you 2 points. In the case of ties (which are common with some critics groups), you get half for your film. So if First Man and Widows split a Best Picture prize, whoever had each would get a single point.

With only one exception, each "game" is either a nominations game or a wins game. So we'll count points for the SAG nominations in December and then count different points for the SAG wins in January. The one exception is the National Board of Review, where we'll give 2 points to every "win," but only 1 point to each title in the top-10 lists they announce. So if First Man is their Best Picture choice, it earns 2 points. The other 10 films they announce (plus the 10 best "indies") are worth 1 point apiece.

Oscars nominations are worth 2 points each. Oscar wins are worth 4 points each.



So, these are the awards we take into account:
GUILDS: SAG, PGA, DGA, Art Directors, ASC, ACE, WGA, CAS, CDG
Each nomination: 1 point
Each win: 2 points

CRITICS:
National Board of Review
Each Win: 2 point
Each Nomination (including Regular Film, Independent Film, Foreign Language Film): 1 point

NYFCC, LAFCA, NSFC
Each Win: 2 points
No Nomination

AWARDS: Indie Spirit, Golden Globes, BAFTAS
Each Nomination: 1 point
Each Win: 2 points

OSCARS
Each Nomination: 2 points
Each Win: 3 points
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Re: PLEASE READ: My Fantasy Oscar League

Postby Greg » Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:52 pm

I'm not quite sure enough about how the points work to advise on making a big-out-on-the-limb prediction, but, what about the chance, as up in the air as we are so far plus the strong desire for something feel-good there might be this year, that you could bet on Won't You Be My Neighbor? expanding beyond winning Best Documentary Feature and being nominated for and perhaps even winning Best Picture?
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Re: PLEASE READ: My Fantasy Oscar League

Postby Sabin » Mon Nov 12, 2018 1:05 pm

Okri wrote
b) Definitely The Favourite – I anticipate it having the most nominations from AMPAS. I can see If Beale Street Could Talk doing well with the critics (Regina King and Coleman Domingo especially), though maybe that’s more of a mid-tier choice,

Barring a huge backlash, I still think A Star is Born is the likeliest film to get most nominations from AMPAS. But the only other one I can see is The Favourite. It really just depends on how much people like it. The praise I've read about If Beale Street Could Talk seems strong but muted. The general consensus I get is that it's like reading a book.

Okri wrote
c) I’d skip on both Panther and the Lee at this point, to be honest. Black Panther is still just a Marvel movie and despite BlacKKKlansmen’s solid performance, I’d be surprised to see it get anything outside screenplay. Though at this point, anonymous’ observation of Blackkklansmen/Green Book echoing Do the Right Thing/Driving Miss Daisy is to delicious not to centre when we’re in the don’t-know-much phase.

Thank you.

Okri wrote
d) How about Bohemian Rhapsody? It’s doing very well at the box office. Yeah, the reviews are not going to help, but Malek will be a contender for the televised prizes all season and it could do well below the line. I’d probably be higher on it as a BTL candidate if The Greatest Showman showed up beyond song.

Even though the baffling choice was made to push it to Drama over Comedy/Musical, I think it's going to be a substantially stronger BTL candidate because even though they're both notionally biopics, Bohemian Rhapsody feels like one and The Greatest Showman doesn't -- full transparency, haven't seen either one. But what categories does it have a shot at? Picture, Actor, Cinematography, Film Editing, Costume Design, and Sound?

Okri wrote
e) First Man? I mean, I once thought it could get double digits, but with its major flameout at the box office, I can imagine it missing out a lot – nothing above the line save Foy, and maybe only two or three below the line.

You think Gosling is done?

FilmFan720 wrote
I think you are correct that you want films that will be in play across the board. It seems like there isn't an advantage, points wise, to winning Best Picture or winning Best Sound, so go for the films that you know will be in play. A Star Is Born may be the top point-getter, but adding together a few films that get wide-range nominations could also get you in there...in an auction, I would rather have a mixture of The Favourite, Black Panther, Green Book, Roma, and Widows. Those are films that are contending both above and below the line and could each rack up 10-12 points on nominations day and another 4-6 on Oscar night, not adding in the earlier prizes.

I think I mentioned this but my strategy is to try to get The Favourite and Roma.

My theory at this point is that Roma has a decent shot at winning Best Film from three major film critics groups, not to mention Best Director and Best Cinematography. That's 18 points right there. The downside is that it will not be making any form of showing at the guilds (except for Producers, Directors, and Writers). On Oscar night, it probably has a good shot at nominations for Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Foreign-Language Film, and Cinematography and depending on how the night turns out it could end up a spoiler winner.

The Favourite, on the other hand, is made of points. I'm still not sold on how Green Book or Widows will play out but they seem like strong gets.

FilmFan720 wrote
I wouldn't look over Can You Ever Forgive Me?, which seems like a solid contender in 3 major categories and could be the sort of film that just keeps popping up. Consistent points across the board, even if it isn't the big haul.

I think you have a good point on this one. It might also play well at the BAFTAs because of the presence of Richard E. Grant.

FilmFan720 wrote
Also, like you always want a few closers in fantasy baseball, I would think about some of those films that might not be glamorous but could keep popping up in the smaller categories. With no big box office favorite in Animated Feature, some of those smaller animated films could pick up several critics prizes and pop up in nominations morning. I would pick up Isle of Dogs or Mirai for cheap points. Same with Best Song...find that film that could get a random Globe nomination there for a few late points.

Incredibles 2 is Pixar's biggest hit and likely going to win Best Animated Feature.

For Best Song... something like Heart Beats Loud, On the Basis of Sex, Fifty Shades Freed, or Smallfoot.
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Re: PLEASE READ: My Fantasy Oscar League

Postby Okri » Sun Nov 11, 2018 10:18 pm

a) Too soon to tell, though I don’t think A Star is Born s winning for similar reasons.

b) Definitely The Favourite – I anticipate it having the most nominations from AMPAS. I can see If Beale Street Could Talk doing well with the critics (Regina King and Coleman Domingo especially), though maybe that’s more of a mid-tier choice,

c) I’d skip on both Panther and the Lee at this point, to be honest. Black Panther is still just a Marvel movie and despite BlacKKKlansmen’s solid performance, I’d be surprised to see it get anything outside screenplay. Though at this point, anonymous’ observation of Blackkklansmen/Green Book echoing Do the Right Thing/Driving Miss Daisy is to delicious not to centre when we’re in the don’t-know-much phase.

d) How about Bohemian Rhapsody? It’s doing very well at the box office. Yeah, the reviews are not going to help, but Malek will be a contender for the televised prizes all season and it could do well below the line. I’d probably be higher on it as a BTL candidate if The Greatest Showman showed up beyond song.

e) First Man? I mean, I once thought it could get double digits, but with its major flameout at the box office, I can imagine it missing out a lot – nothing above the line save Foy, and maybe only two or three below the line.


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