Oscar Predictions Contest

For the films of 2018
Greg
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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest

Postby Greg » Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:39 pm

As is my tradition, here is a listing of the most recent years for which I have correctly predicted for all the Oscar categories:

2018:
Director
Adapted Screenplay
Lead Actor
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress
Foreign Language Film
Animated Feature
Documentary Short Subject
Animated Short Subject
Original Song
Original Score
Film Editing
Cinematography
Visual Effects
Makeup & Hairstyling

2017:
Picture
Lead Actress
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
Production Design
Costume Design

2016:
Documentary Feature

2015:
Original Screenplay

2014:
Live Action Short Subject

As expected, as I think it is the category the most difficult to predict, Live Action Short Subject has been the category I have been wrong for the most years in a row.

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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest

Postby Franz Ferdinand » Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:52 am

From last place to first: congrats dws!
And thanks anonymous for hosting the contest again!

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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest

Postby Jefforey Smith » Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:34 am

I had written in my notes last week, "dws1982 has a very good ballot."

It looks as though my comment was on-target.

Kudos to dws1982!

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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest

Postby Reza » Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:10 am

dws1982 wrote:Glad Olivia Colman helped me out here, because I never would've predicted her if I had known that The Favourite would get blanked elsewhere. I went with her initially because I felt like being in a broadly-nominated film would put her over the top. Actors who are the only nominee for their film tend to win when the field is thin (Julianne Moore) or when they've swept up every award in sight (Forest Whitaker) and Close didn't fit either of those profiles. In Best Actress, Colman, McCarthy, Close, and yes, even Lady Gaga all gave performances that could have contended for the win under the right circumstances. Whereas Moore faced two former winners getting afterglow nominations, an actress who was the only survivor from her film's failed Oscar campaign, and one who would've been pushed off in Support in a stronger year. I think Close needed a field like that to win for The Wife. But, as I said, by the time Best Actress actually came around, I was expecting Close to win. If The Favourite couldn't even get Screenplay, I thought, it's not going to be well-liked enough for Actress.

I made a couple of last-minute adjustments that helped me as well: Black Panther in Production Design and Skin in Live Action Short. As bad as Skin was, it did stand out from the others in a unique way. (Whereas Margeurite only stood by not being about kids in peril.) Maybe viewing the shorts program did help after all.

Congrats to those who called Bohemian Rhapsody in Sound Editing. I thought you were all being fatalistic, unnecessarily preparing yourself for the worst possible outcome. Little did I know you were right to prepare yourself. It unfortunately reinforced what I said in the Sound threads: Voters tend to vote in tandem in these categories, unless there's a compelling reason not to do so. (I thought there were all kinds of compelling reasons to vote for anything else in either category, especially Sound Editing, but I guess they really like Queen.)

Thanks for putting on the contest, anonymous!


Congratulations dws!!

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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest

Postby dws1982 » Mon Feb 25, 2019 9:06 am

Glad Olivia Colman helped me out here, because I never would've predicted her if I had known that The Favourite would get blanked elsewhere. I went with her initially because I felt like being in a broadly-nominated film would put her over the top. Actors who are the only nominee for their film tend to win when the field is thin (Julianne Moore) or when they've swept up every award in sight (Forest Whitaker) and Close didn't fit either of those profiles. In Best Actress, Colman, McCarthy, Close, and yes, even Lady Gaga all gave performances that could have contended for the win under the right circumstances. Whereas Moore faced two former winners getting afterglow nominations, an actress who was the only survivor from her film's failed Oscar campaign, and one who would've been pushed off in Support in a stronger year. I think Close needed a field like that to win for The Wife. But, as I said, by the time Best Actress actually came around, I was expecting Close to win. If The Favourite couldn't even get Screenplay, I thought, it's not going to be well-liked enough for Actress.

I made a couple of last-minute adjustments that helped me as well: Black Panther in Production Design and Skin in Live Action Short. As bad as Skin was, it did stand out from the others in a unique way. (Whereas Margeurite only stood by not being about kids in peril.) Maybe viewing the shorts program did help after all.

Congrats to those who called Bohemian Rhapsody in Sound Editing. I thought you were all being fatalistic, unnecessarily preparing yourself for the worst possible outcome. Little did I know you were right to prepare yourself. It unfortunately reinforced what I said in the Sound threads: Voters tend to vote in tandem in these categories, unless there's a compelling reason not to do so. (I thought there were all kinds of compelling reasons to vote for anything else in either category, especially Sound Editing, but I guess they really like Queen.)

Thanks for putting on the contest, anonymous!

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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest

Postby MaxWilder » Mon Feb 25, 2019 8:41 am

anonymous1980 wrote:The answers to the bonus questions were: Albert Finney...

I didn’t play, but I’d like to think I nudged people toward that answer by pointing out that 2019 decedents were ‘eligible,’ so to speak. Humor me?

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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest

Postby Precious Doll » Mon Feb 25, 2019 7:36 am

Congratulations dws!

And and bow to everyone who picked Olivia Colman. It would be nice to hear why some of you went with Colman over Close.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest

Postby Big Magilla » Mon Feb 25, 2019 4:58 am

Congratulations, Daniel.

I'm surprised I did so well, tying for second place with 18 out of 24 correct guesses. I did better with my CinemaSight predictions where runners-up are noted. Six of the eight I missed were my runners-up. I missed only Documentary Short and Animated Short.

anonymous1980
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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest

Postby anonymous1980 » Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:25 am

THE RESULTS!!!!

Well, well, well. No one got triple points. I thought the Bohemian Rhapsody Sound Editing win was gonna result in double points but there were FOUR people who somehow predicted so no double points. But THREE people actually went against the tide and predicted Olivia Colman, earning them double points. They are dws1982, Okri and Mister Tee. This resulted in a definitive winner.

The answers to the bonus questions were: Albert Finney and none.

Here are the results, let me know if I miscalculated or miss anyone, thanks:

30 points = Franz Ferdinand & CalWilliam
42 points = Banana Ohnana
45 points = Sabin & HarryGoldfarb
46 points = anonymous1980
48 points = Greg, nighwingnova, FilmFan720, Heksagon, flipp525 & Sonic Youth
51 points = Precious Doll, Aceisgreat & Okri
53 points = Jefforey Smith
54 points = mlrg, Big Magilla, Reza, OscarGuy & Mister Tee.

and the winner with 60 points is...

dws1982!!!

Congrats! Take a bow!

(dws1982's Olivia Colman prediction won him this. If he had stuck with Glenn Close, there would've been a six-way tie for winners)

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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest

Postby Sonic Youth » Sun Feb 24, 2019 11:16 pm

Sonic Youth wrote:2. None


Of course I meant to say "2. Black Panther". Rush job. Not that it matters now.
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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest

Postby FilmFan720 » Sun Feb 24, 2019 11:04 pm

FilmFan720 wrote:
Greg wrote:
FilmFan720 wrote:Tie Breaker One: Aretha Franklin (with as crazy as this Oscar year has been, I am assuming they won't hesitate to put a non-film person in this slot)


How quickly you forget The Blues Brothers :wink:


Oh, I'm a good Chicago boy. I'm not allowed to forget about The Blues Brothers. But that is about the extent of her clip reel :)


OK, do I get credit for picking somebody for the last slot who DIDN'T EVEN MAKE IT INTO THE MONTAGE?!?!?!?
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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest

Postby Banana Ohnana » Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:03 pm

Picture: Blackkklansman
Director: Spike Lee
Actor: Rami Malek
Actress: Glen Close
Supporting Actor: Richard E. Grant
Supporting Actress: Regina King
Original Screenplay: The Favourite
Adapted Screenplay: BlackKKlansman
Editing: Vice
Makeup: Vice
Score: BlackKklansman
Production Design: The Favourite
Costumes: Black Panther
Sound: Bohemian Rhapsody
Sound Editing: A Quiet Place
Visual Effects: First Man
Song: Shallow
Cinematography: Roma
Foreign Language Film: Roma
Documentary Feature: Free Solo
Documentary Short: Period, End of Sentence
Animated Short: Animal Behaviour
Live Action Short: Skin
Animated Feature: Spiderman

Tie Breaker: 1. Finney. 2. Green Book

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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest

Postby Sonic Youth » Sun Feb 24, 2019 7:34 pm

Best Picture - Roma
Best Director - Alfonso Cuaron
Best Actor - Rami Malek
Best Actress - Glenn Close
Best Sup. Actor - Mahershala Ali
Best Sup. Actress - Regina King
Best Original Scr. - The Favourite
Best Adapted Scr. - BlacKKKlansman

Best Foreign Language Film - Roma
Best Documentary - RBG
Best Animated - Spider-Man
Best Live Action Short - Marguerite
Best Docu. Short - Period. End of Sentence
Best Ani. Short - Bao

Best Song - "Shallow"
Best Score - If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Editing - Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Cinematography - Roma
Best Sound Mixing - Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Sound Editing - A Quiet Place
Best Visual Effects - First Man
Best Production Design - The Favourite
Best Costumes - The Favorite
Best Makeup - Vice

1. Burt Reynolds
2. None
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Win Butler

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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest

Postby flipp525 » Sun Feb 24, 2019 7:01 pm

Best Picture: Roma
Best Director: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Best Actor: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Actress: Glenn Close, The Wife
Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Best Supporting Actresss: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Original Screenplay: The Favourite
Best Adapted Screenplay: Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Best Foreign Language: Roma
Best Documentary Feature: RBG
Best Animated Feature: Spider-Man - Into the Spider-Verse
Best Live Action Short: Marguerite[I]
Best Documentary Short: [I]A Night at the Garden

Best Animated Short: Bao

Best Original Song: "Shallow", A Star Is Born
Best Original Score: If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Film Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Cinematography: Roma
Best Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Sound Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Visual Effects: First Man
Best Production Design: The Favourite
Best Costume Design: The Favourite
Best Make-Up: Vice

Tie Breakers:

1. Albert Finney
2. None
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Re: Oscar Predictions Contest

Postby Heksagon » Sun Feb 24, 2019 4:46 pm

Best Picture: Roma
Best Director: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Best Actor: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Actress: Glenn Close, The Wife
Best Supp. Actor: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Best Supp. Actresss: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Original Screenplay: The Favourite
Best Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman

Best Foreign Language: Roma
Best Docu Feature: RBG
Best Animated Feature: Spider-Man - Into the Spider-Verse
Best Live Action Short: Marguerite
Best Docu Short: Period. End of Sentence
Best Animated Short: Bao

Best Original Song: "Shallow", A Star Is Born
Best Original Score: If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Film Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Cinematography: Roma
Best Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Sound Editing: Black Panther
Best Visual Effects: First Man
Best Production Design: The Favourite
Best Costume Design: The Favourite
Best Make-Up: Vice

Tie Breakers:

1. Burt Reynolds
2. None


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