Categories One-by-One: Original Screenplay

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Re: Categories One-by-One: Original Screenplay

Postby Sabin » Fri Feb 22, 2019 1:46 pm

The math that it takes for Green Book to theoretically win would require: A) the WGA's number of writers to make up a small percentage of the Academy's writer's branch (which might be the case), or B) for the addition of The Favourite to have been a non-factor in the WGA's voting last week. I know the comparison isn't exactly apt but does anybody think that if Birdman was eligible for a WGA award that it wouldn't have beaten The Grand Budapest Hotel?

But more tellingly, the writer's branch of the Academy has been hipper than usual over the past couple of years. They chose Get Out over Three Billboards... and Manchester by the Sea over La La Land. Going with Green Book would be a big step backwards. The gulf in quality between The Favourite and Green Book is exponentially wider than any of those listed. This would favor The Favourite BEFORE the WGA issued their thunderous Green Book snub.
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Original Screenplay

Postby Big Magilla » Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:50 am

It would be nice to see Willem Dafoe get one as well, but that one's an awful long shot.

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Re: Categories One-by-One: Original Screenplay

Postby Franz Ferdinand » Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:00 am

Big Magilla wrote:There is, however, something else to consider and that's that like Spike Lee, the likely adapted screenplay winner, long-time writer Paul Schrader has never won an Oscar. Oddly, he's never even been nominated. He could, like Lee and Glenn Close, be a recipient of one of those "it's about time" awards for First Reformed.


This would be a great scenario, and considering what a fiasco this Oscar season has been, why not just go the full "everyone gets a make-up statue this year!" First Reformed would certainly be a solid choice, probably my second, ahem, favourite in this category.

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Re: Categories One-by-One: Original Screenplay

Postby Big Magilla » Fri Feb 22, 2019 3:45 am

If they go strictly by the strength of the screenplay, it's a contest between The Favourite and Green Book with The Favourite winning on the strength of its witticisms,

There is, however, something else to consider and that's that like Spike Lee, the likely adapted screenplay winner, long-time writer Paul Schrader has never won an Oscar. Oddly, he's never even been nominated. He could, like Lee and Glenn Close, be a recipient of one of those "it's about time" awards for First Reformed.

An interesting bit of trivia that I'm sure will not effect anyone's vote is that Close made her film debut as Robin Williams' mother in The World According to Garp for which she received her first nomination in which Mary Beth Hurt played Williams' wife. Mary Beth Hurt, ex-wife of William Hurt, Close's co-star in The Big Chill, has been married to Paul Schrader since 1983.

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Re: Categories One-by-One: Original Screenplay

Postby Mister Tee » Fri Feb 22, 2019 2:27 am

Wow, it had totally slipped by me, that we'd failed to discuss this category.

It's really pretty simple. As you note, for separate reasons, First Reformed, Vice and Roma are deep long shots. It all comes down to The Favourite vs. Green Book.

Even if, hypothetically, voters are inclined to choose Green Book for best picture (something I dispute -- like I said: hypothetically), they ought to be capable of honoring The Favourite's clear superior literary quality...its delicious bon mots. I mean, they gave Rocky best picture, but they weren't dumb enough to pass over Network in screenplay. This, to me, is just as obvious a choice. And, as you note, the fact that Green Book couldn't win WGA with The Favourite on the sidelines suggests it's not quite the beloved film Hollywood gossip (and the PGA) have led us to believe.

If Green Book wins the category, it'll be a groaner on the level of Crash over Brokeback. I don't expect it to happen.

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Categories One-by-One: Original Screenplay

Postby anonymous1980 » Fri Feb 22, 2019 12:10 am

The nominees:

The Favourite by Tony McNamara and Deborah Davis
First Reformed by Paul Schrader
Green Book by Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga and Brian Currie
Roma by Alfonso Cuaron
Vice by Adam McKay

First one to go is First Reformed. Paul Schrader is a respected veteran who finally gets his first nomination but if the Academy can't nominate Ethan Hawke, I'm not optimistic about his chances. Next to go would be Roma. Even if Roma is a giant sweeper, it will likely not win this award since it's not seen as a writing achievement. Plus Cuaron already has enough trophies, he doesn't need this one. Vice has its fans but just as many detractors. I don't think people are hurrying to give McKay another Writing Oscar so soon.

That leaves us with The Favourite and Green Book. I think this is one category that will be the bellwether for Best Picture. If Green Book wins this, it wins Best Picture, almost guaranteed. But its chances are not looking good. It won the Globe, yes but it lost everything else. It lost BAFTA to The Favourite and it lost the WGA (where The Favourite wasn't eligible) to, of all things, a non-Oscar nominee, Eighth Grade.

But Green Book does have the PGA win, but for now, I think the edge goes to The Favourite.
Last edited by anonymous1980 on Fri Feb 22, 2019 3:38 am, edited 1 time in total.


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