Everything Is Great and Amazing

Greg
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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Greg » Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:20 pm

Bill Nelson files lawsuit challenging Florida’s election signature match law amid Senate recount:

https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politi ... e-recount/
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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Mister Tee » Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:29 pm

Everyone knows my opinion of the Awards Watch folk, but I have to admit someone there came up with a good analogy for the pundit election reactions on Tuesday and the reality uncovered since: "On Tuesday, Republicans saw the Les Miz screening tweets. Now they're reading the actual reviews"

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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Greg » Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:58 pm

Rick Scott sues Broward elections supervisor over vote count:

https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politi ... ote-count/

"'I will not sit idly by while unethical liberals try to steal this election from the great people of Florida,' Scott told reporters as he stood on the steps of the Governor's Mansion in Tallahassee."
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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Mister Tee » Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:49 pm

The Original BJ wrote:As disappointing as the results in TX and GA (and maybe AZ) were, the optimistic read is that Republicans should be pretty scared of the narrow outcomes in all three. These are states that seem to have been "on the cusp" of turning blue for a while, that could very well be legitimate swing states in the next election -- assuming the upper Midwest reversion to its Democratic mean lasts, that's going to force Republicans to play defense in a lot of places it's used to having in the bag.


When people speak of the advancing demographics that will favor Democrats as time goes on, it's states like these three you note that they have in mind (along with some that have already moved into lean-blue territory, like NV and CO). GA and AZ were in fact pretty close in the 2016 election -- Hillary lost GA by 5% and AZ by only 3.5% -- but Dems have struggled up till now to make a similar showing in statewide races. Here, though, you have Sinema with a lead as outstanding ballots have come in, and Abrams behind by a miniscule 1.6%. The fact that Abrams didn't run the way Michelle Nunn did a few years back ("I'm really kind of Republican, honest") but as full-fledged Dem makes her showing even more impressive.

Texas, though, has been the truly tough nut to crack. The state has a significant minority population and has seemed for years like it ought to be trending blue, but GOPers have been routinely scoring 55-60% of the vote in statewide races. Until Tuesday. Beto's 2.6% loss-margin is breathtakingly close -- a quantum leap over what Dems have managed to now. (And he apparently made a big difference down-ballot, bringing along House members, State reps and judges in the urban areas.) It may be that he's a truly one-of-a-kind candidate and this won't be replicated -- but maybe not. Maybe he's just finally found the key that party folk have been seeking for a decade or more. Note: when Obama carried Virginia in 2008, LBJ in 1964 had been the only Dem since Truman to take the state (most Republicans had been winning the state easily). But it wasn't a one-off: Dems have now carried the state solidly in two subsequent elections, and Tim Kaine won re-election by a landslide. It's such a blue state at this point, one barely remembers how recently it wasn't. Maybe Texas can travel a similar route.

Which, for Republicans, would be death. Texas is the only EV-rich state the Pubs have been able to count on in recent years. There are plenty of big boppers they compete for -- GA, NC, OH, FL of course. But TX is the only one they've been able to take for granted. Take it away, and they're in dire shape. Consider this: Trump could pull off his improbable WI/MI/PA parley in 2016 -- but if TX had gone the other way, Hillary would have won the College. Simply moving the state to swing status -- alongside FL, NC, OH, all states that have been carried by more than one party in the past three elections -- would make the GOP task massively more difficult.

By the way, wave update: It's now almost definitively a wave, with late-breaking calls leaving Dems looking at something like 37 House seats, maybe even 40; with Sinema looking very possible to take AZ Senate; and with FL numbers getting so crazy close that a hand recount will have to be done, which might uncover issues in Broward count that could reverse the Senate call (and even conceivably rescue Gillum). It's possible we'll end this process with Dems losing only one Senate seat -- which, given the map they faced, would be outstanding. Nate Silver notes tonight that some pundits will need to revise the analyses they hastily wrote between 8 and 9 PM ET on Tuesday and have been clinging to since.

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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Greg » Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:21 pm

Here's a thought:

Someone who was an infant during the Bush/Gore recount could now have his/her vote be part of the Nelson/Scott and Gillum/DeSantis recounts.
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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Sabin » Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:21 pm

"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Big Magilla » Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:48 pm

One thing that really bugs me is the rap stereotypical white men get for supporting Trump and Trumpism when white women can be just as obtuse. Here's a bit of fresh perspective:

From the Daily Beast's Goldie Taylor:

Dear White Lady, What Are You Doing to Us?

If we’re going to be sisters, the first rule has to be: Do no harm. [But when you elected] Trump to the White House, you broke that rule. Now, I figured that after nearly two years of this debacle on Pennsylvania Avenue that you would see just how wrong you were about him. I thought it might upset you when the president nominated Brett Kavanaugh for a seat on the Supreme Court and stood behind him even after a highly credible alleged victim, or more than one, said Justice Kavanaugh often drank more than his fill and had sexually assaulted them. I assumed it would make your stomach churn to see families separated at the border and children caged for weeks in makeshift camps. I assumed it would only be a matter of time before you abandoned the prospect of a presidential ‘pivot.’

You didn’t.

You stuck right with him into the midterm elections and, honey, I hate to tell you but this is about as classy as he gets. I’ll leave the “blue wave” talk to a more learned person. But, by and large, you almost single-handedly sent Ted Cruz (R-Texas) back to the U.S. Senate, elected Ron DeSantis governor of Florida and, if the numbers hold, Brian Kemp will become governor of Georgia. I understand party loyalty and ideological differences, but these are the kinds of men who will do absolutely nothing to tear down the strictures of gender. In fact, they’re damn happy with things just like they are.

Even so, half of you pulled the lever for DeSantis and Cruz won just under 60 percent of your votes, according to exit polls. I don’t expect you to play gender politics, but I guess I was expecting you to walk away from any candidate—man or woman — who did not loudly and definitively speak up for the rights of women. Imagine my shock when Kemp pulled nearly 80 percent of all white women who voted in the Georgia midterm against a supremely qualified black woman who not only hears you but put that into action.

Response from Hollywood Elsewhere's Jeffrey Wells:

A lot of women don't care or are as dumb as rocks.

Did you know there are millions of women out there who live and think locally, who are mainly interested in getting a spread of butter on their bread, and who don’t give that much of a damn about gender politics? How many millions of women have supported unregenerate bad guys (Donald Trump, Brett Kavanaugh, Ron DaSantis, Brian Kemp) in recent elections? Primarily because they’re cowed, mule-stubborn, under-educated, racist or just flat-out stupid. Like their dumb-shit boyfriends or husbands, they’d rather push back against coastal liberals and multi-culturals than vote sensibly or logically, and they don’t give a flying fuck about supporting women’s rights or female candidates.

You know why? An African-American actor friend said this to me a couple of decades ago, and if he were to post this on Twitter he’d be ripped apart by wild dogs: “Many women will bow down to the conqueror.”
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Greg » Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:24 pm

Florida governor's race faces recount as Senate race gets even tighter:

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/po ... story.html
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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Precious Doll » Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:27 am

Well, after watching Michael Moore's Fahrenheit 11/9 I can now understand why people didn't vote at the last election. And my admiration for Obama evaporated within about 10 minutes during the film. His 'I need a glass of water' stunt in Flint was pulled right of the the Trump playbook and is a truely disgusting 'act' and a huge blight on an otherwise impressive Presidency (from someone outside looking in like me). But I kept having to lift my jaw from the floor watching some of the revelations and behaviour in the film, from both the Republicans (not so surprising) and the Democrats (I should not have been surprised but I was). Michael Moore pulls a stunt or two himself but they pale compared to the actions of people in power that he exposes through there own words and actions. Its a flawed and messy film, like Michael Moore himself, but a vital film and whilst Michael Moore has always lacked finesse most of his work passionate and urgent.

Still what is happening in the U.S. is being played out through many countries around the world so you guys are not alone. And when the U.S. trembles the rest of world trembles along with it.

I think this would be the first time that the mid terms US elections got massive coverage and interest outside the U.S. In past years my only knowledge of them even being on was from this board - nothing in the press.
"I have no interest in all of that. I find that all tabloid stupidity" Woody Allen, The Guardian, 2014, in response to his adopted daughter's allegations.

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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby OscarGuy » Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:58 am

I don't remember the exact details, I just challenged him on his very proudly displayed vote for Ted Cruz. I think I mentioned that I couldn't imagine anyone voting for the man who considered themselves an ally to the gay (or other minority) community.

I get feeling strongly about abortion, but he could have 3rd Party voted. It was that he voted for the odious troll Cruz that bugged me. I also find that people who talk about late-term abortion A) don't actually know anything about it; B) have formed an opinion based on junk science (like the exact measure that Beto voted against that Wes was so inflamed about; and C) don't support the very things that help reduce incidences of abortion (sex education, women's health services funding, and more).
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"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin

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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Sabin » Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:55 pm

OscarGuy wrote
he tacitly admitted that he doesn't care about the rights of LGBTQ, Women, blacks, Hispanics, non-Christians, or any other minority as long as his one "moral" issue was met.

How? Truly interested

That’s the thing about abortion. While I don’t agree with MovieWes, I absolutely 100% understand how somebody could feel that strongly about that issue. That’s why I am so interested in how this conversation occurred.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby OscarGuy » Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:20 pm

I unfriended MovieWes on Facebook tonight. He tried to morally defend his vote for Ted Cruz simply because Beto O'Rourke voted against a measure that would eliminate late-term abortions in Texas. One issue determined his vote. I called him out on it, not only did he double-down on it, he tacitly admitted that he doesn't care about the rights of LGBTQ, Women, blacks, Hispanics, non-Christians, or any other minority as long as his one "moral" issue was met.

That does not fly with me and I'm done allowing these kinds of people think that they can continue to remain friends with people who are directly hurt by the candidates they vote for. The time for apolitical tolerance is done for me. Outside of my work place, I'm not going to suffer fools any longer. He showed me tonight that he doesn't deserve my friendship, nor does he deserve yours.
Wesley Lovell

"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin

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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby The Original BJ » Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:45 pm

Now that the story has moved on to Trump's press conference meltdown and the Sessions firing, it feels a bit like the midterms were a week ago, but to add a few more thoughts...

The race I volunteered for has finally been called, and we won! Katie Hill will be the first woman to ever represent the CA-25 district in Congress, the first Democrat in 25 years, and -- at 31 -- will be one of the youngest members in Congress. It was a VERY close election in a genuine swing district -- a Bush-Obama-Romney-Clinton district, to give you an impression of just how swingy -- but it looks like she'll prevail by around 2.5%, depending on final ballot totals. I'm very proud of her, and inspired by the smart, positive, and generous campaign she ran. I hope she will be a presence in California politics for a while.

I went to bed thinking Tester might be doomed, so the fact that at least Dems had one big razor-thin race that broke toward them was a relief. And it seems Sinema is at least still in the hunt in Arizona -- even when I woke up this morning, general vibe was that she was done for.

Mister Tee, I agree with you that all those Senate seats are the ones Dems should have their eyes on in 2020. (Collins & Gardner, in particular, feel like they're in the Heitkamp/Donnelly spots this year, in that both have taken pretty key votes that have pissed off states whose partisan lean doesn't remotely favor them.) Still, given that Doug Jones seems a real longshot for re-election -- perhaps even more than that if a now-unemployed former Alabama senator decides he wants his old job back -- Dems will have a lot of ground to make up just to get to 50-50. Which doesn't mean anyone should concede defeat today -- who knows what the environment will look like in 2020, and perhaps the strong runs in GA & TX this year might even make those Senate races competitive too -- but the unfavorability of the Senate map is going to be a near-term issue for the Democrats. (And should they win it in 2020 or 2022, with -- God willing -- a Democratic president, they certainly should move to vote for statehood for DC and, if the residents want it, Puerto Rico.)

As disappointing as the results in TX and GA (and maybe AZ) were, the optimistic read is that Republicans should be pretty scared of the narrow outcomes in all three. These are states that seem to have been "on the cusp" of turning blue for a while, that could very well be legitimate swing states in the next election -- assuming the upper Midwest reversion to its Democratic mean lasts, that's going to force Republicans to play defense in a lot of places it's used to having in the bag.

All in all, a night that definitely put a stop to a lot of bleeding in important ways, even if it's clear there is much work to do to combat the popularity of Trumpism in areas that are giving Republicans some pretty severe structural advantages.

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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Mister Tee » Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:28 pm

A note on turnout. Current estimates are over 48%; the highest for a midterm since at least 1966.

Worth remembering: when the voting age was lowered to 18 in 1971, overall turnout in both midterms and presidential elections took a drop. So to get close to a number from prior to that time is even more impressive. Americans were fully engaged. (Dems may wish Republicans were a bit less engaged, but at least for once Dems weren't killed by low participation on their own side.)

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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Greg » Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:36 pm

Some perspective on the Senate: There were 35 seats up this cycle, and, Democrats have so far won 23 of them. The Republican majority in the Senate is entirely built on their large majorities in the other two classes.
"Wall Street is not the solution to our problem. Wall Street is the problem!"

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