Everything Is Great and Amazing

Mister Tee
Laureate
Posts: 6527
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 2:57 pm
Location: NYC
Contact:

Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Mister Tee » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:19 pm

1) What a difference 45 minutes make. Dems have been winning House races hands over fist, and Fox -- of all places -- has already projected them to take control (something I had seriously begun to doubt). My mood is considerably up (especially after seeing Kobach lost the Kansas governorship!).

2) Neither Beto nor Gillum has lost yet. Gillum would hurt more, since he seemed to have a decent cushion.

3) I'd actually posit that Beto would be a better presidential bet if he missed by a hair, given he's promised to serve out his Texas term. A guy who got that close in Texas might look like a very strong national Dem candidate (seeing Texas is way down on the list of states Dems count on).

There is history, you know, for a guy losing a prominent Senate race coming back and winning the presidency soon after. Fella name of Lincoln.

Bog
Assistant
Posts: 832
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:39 am
Location: United States

Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Bog » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:03 pm

Hoping it's a dumbass Florida fuckers aberration...but Gillum was amazing! If Gillum and O'Rourke finish tonight without a job at all we sure are losing some seriously solid potential, extremely charismatic presidential candidates in my opinion.

Mister Tee
Laureate
Posts: 6527
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 2:57 pm
Location: NYC
Contact:

Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Mister Tee » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:25 pm

I have a similar sick feeling to what I had two years ago. We're not catching any breaks at all. This is not the repudiation we needed. I'm edging toward despair.

The Original BJ
Emeritus
Posts: 4222
Joined: Mon Apr 28, 2003 8:49 pm

Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby The Original BJ » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:04 pm

A Tweet from Judd Legum sums it up pretty well: "Democrats may or may not take the House but I think one thing progressives are waiting for is the country to rise up and decisively reject Trumpism. It's not happening."

Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 15777
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:52 pm

Bog wrote:I haven't gotten home yet and stationed myself in front of Rachel and Brian yet...but is it already time to vomit?!?! Is this happening? I don't want to be dramatic or maybe I just have no other choice. Like I said I'm not seeing what's left...but at 95% please let it be all Dade and Broward or if the latest projections were this far off on Gillum then this night will just be a redux late into a drunken cussing night.

Mostly Dade and Broward with a little in the Panhandle.
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

Sabin
Laureate
Posts: 7425
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Sabin » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:50 pm

How can you be talking about 2020? I can barely talk about right now. I do not feel good about these numbers
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

Bog
Assistant
Posts: 832
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:39 am
Location: United States

Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Bog » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:43 pm

I haven't gotten home yet and stationed myself in front of Rachel and Brian yet...but is it already time to vomit?!?! Is this happening? I don't want to be dramatic or maybe I just have no other choice. Like I said I'm not seeing what's left...but at 95% please let it be all Dade and Broward or if the latest projections were this far off on Gillum then this night will just be a redux late into a drunken cussing night.

Bog
Assistant
Posts: 832
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:39 am
Location: United States

Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Bog » Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:18 pm

Politicized Vegas type sites and odds only really list Trump and Kamala Harris with the former roughly 2.5 to 1 odds and Kamala 8 to 1 odds. This of course does not include an actual matchup so hard to gauge. Warren, Biden, Beto, and Booker all come in at about the odds of the Brewers or Phillies or Rockies to win the World Series.

mlrg
Adjunct
Posts: 1113
Joined: Tue Dec 07, 2004 11:19 am
Location: Lisbon, Portugal

Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby mlrg » Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:39 pm

I’ve been following your posts about the midterms and the media in my country has been covering this elections pretty intensenvily but one question I have is who will run for president in the Democratic Party. I don’t have the slightest idea on who can beat Trump in 2020. Who do you guys think is better positioned to run against Trump?

Mister Tee
Laureate
Posts: 6527
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 2:57 pm
Location: NYC
Contact:

Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Mister Tee » Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:39 pm

My wait to vote wasn't much, but 1) I went at an off-time (about 1:30 PM, historically least-crowded time) and 2) it's not as if my district holds a lot of suspense -- not much chance Jerry Nadler or Kristen Gillibrand face serious challenge. I never even saw a TV ad for Gillibrand this cycle; I had to check and be sure she was running.

My hat is off to BJ and Bog for doing active campaign work. I don't think I'd be up to knocking on doors and dealing with potential voter hostility. My little contribution to the effort this year was writing postcards for Phil Bredesen voters. They tell me this has been shown to have impact, so I hope I've done something to make America well again. As someone I know posted on Facebook today, it's like the country is waiting on a biopsy report.

About the Senate: 1) Lisa Murkowski is an actual maverick (unlike Collins, who only plays one on TV), but I still think the prospect of her tipping a 50/50 split are not that strong; 2) I don't think a freshly re-elected Manchin would turn on his party quite so quickly as Bog suggests; six years is a long time, and who knows what the lay of the land will be then; 3) it infuriates me that GOPers have convinced the media to accept their spin that holding the Senate while Dems take the House amounts to a split decision. If all hundred Senate seats were up this year, in this environment, the Pubs would be looking at a loss of up to ten seats; it's their extraordinary good fortune to be dealing with the class of Senators that Dems have won three cycles in a row (picking up five seats in 2000, six seats in 2006, and two more in 2012).

That we're even considering the possibility Dems could pick up 1-3 seats from such a tilted field is evidence of how deep the GOP malaise goes. A year ago, Republicans thought they could easily knock off not just Heitkamp, but also Donnelly/McCaskill/Nelson/Tester/Manchin. They thought they were going to make Bob Casey and Sherrod Brown sweat bullets. In their wildest dreams, they hoped to challenge Amy Klobuchar. Now they're reduced to being worried about holding Ted Cruz's seat, as well as one in Tennessee. It's maddening that it would take the Dems pulling off something of an electoral miracle to get the media to note how well they did.

About Sabin's thoughts on this turnout being the new normal -- as Hemingway would say, isn't it pretty to think so? I'm always dubious about mid-day turnout reports, but it sure seems like we're headed to as strong a mid-term showing as any in memory (there are long lines even in states that have already shattered early-voting turnout) -- a turnout driven by exactly those demographics (young and minority) who've long been blamed for lackluster voting totals. It'd be great if this means people have been shocked awake by the 2016 outcome and will take their voting responsibility seriously from here on.

But it might be just a one-time thing. In a way, this is an atonement election, for all those who presumed from polling and punditry that Hillary had 2016 in the bag and either stayed home or voted Stein/Johnson as their "protest". You could say that the 2016 election was America's Brexit -- a accidental outcome that, through voter inattention, didn't reflect actual citizen sentiment. I've argued to people recently (and received surprisingly little pushback) that, had a corrective election been called ten days after the 2016 debacle, Hillary would have won convincingly, as all those unmotivated or protest voters would have been there for her as they should have been were they not so blase. The vagaries of American elections being what they are, this is the first chance we've had to make that case, and it appears voters are taking advantage. Whether that lasts till 2020 -- and, particularly, through 2022 if a Dem wins the presidency in 2020 -- is an open question for the moment.
Last edited by Mister Tee on Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Sabin
Laureate
Posts: 7425
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Sabin » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:05 am

It’s 7:45 am right now. I’m standing in line to vote in the midterms.

...that’s it. That’s all I wanted to say. 7:45. Standing in line. To vote. In the midterms.

There’s a lot I hate about this administration but what if this isn’t a passing phenomenon? The 2016 election and the Trump administration showed the country how the sausage gets made and maybe there’s no going back? My Facebook page and those of my friends have basically become freelance unpaid Politico. If this is the new normal, good.

There are countless incredible candidates to root for, but I find my hopes resting on three races: Texas, Georgia, and Florida. Cruz, Kemp, and De Santis represent the three most loathesome facets of the Republican Party. A defeat for De Santis is a rebuke of Trumpism. A defeat of Cruz is a loss for Tea Partyism. And a defeat for Kemp is all about Republicanism. Voter suppression. Lying. Corruption. Business-as-usual threats to democracy. In my heart, I know Stacey Abrams victory will feel the best. That said, I will need at least two of these tonight to feel good. I feel the surest of Gillum’s victory although that is largely due to the fact that De Santis is so visibly a clown.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

Bog
Assistant
Posts: 832
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:39 am
Location: United States

Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Bog » Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:50 am

I've never seen such fervor from literally every outlet around to get out and vote! Google even has "Go Vote" on the search box. I'm nervous and hopeful and will be running around and knocking and persuading and seeing if we can flip the 12th here in Ohio!

HAPPY VOTING DAY UAADB!

Bog
Assistant
Posts: 832
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:39 am
Location: United States

Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Bog » Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:16 am

Unless Manchin is ok with this being his retirement tour election he would just do the reverse, no?

Susan Collins gave a speech on the Senate floor last month knowing full well (I assume) she was also basically announcing her retirement and that's what a lot of this craziness is coming to nowadays. Manchin's next campaign will be on the heels of whatever Democrat just resided as president...creating a West Virginia as irate as we are with this president. Mitch and Joe would have a heart to heart if they even got a whiff of Chuck and Lisa concocting such a plan...negating the whole thing.

Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 15777
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Big Magilla » Sun Nov 04, 2018 8:49 pm

The Original BJ wrote:There's also another question that doesn't seem to be on most folks' radar, but I've been seriously pondering -- if we end up with a 50-50 Senate (or 50-49 on election night, with the Mississippi runoff basically a de facto Republican pickup), what's the likelihood of Chuck Schumer offering Lisa Murkowski the universe to become an independent and caucus with the Democrats?


I hadn't thought of that, but it would be it would be quite a feat if she accepted.
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

The Original BJ
Emeritus
Posts: 4222
Joined: Mon Apr 28, 2003 8:49 pm

Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby The Original BJ » Sun Nov 04, 2018 5:55 pm

Well, I've been knocking on doors since March for Katie Hill, who is running for the congressional seat in California's 25th district -- she advanced in the primary by an eyelash (by just over two percent) and is hoping to unseat incumbent Steve Knight (who as of late has been embroiled in controversy over an ad he released featuring an endorsement from a white supremacist, go figure.) Today was my last day of canvassing, and it's been hard work -- it's not easy to have people look you in the eye and tell you smugly (and it's always smugly) that they're voting for more of the Trump agenda, and even HARDER to hear from people who don't plan to vote because they don't see how it matters. Polls show a very tight race, but at this point I just have to be content I did everything I possibly could to get people to turnout, and convince them that, yes, voting actually does matter to their lives. I myself can't even vote for Katie Hill -- I live in Adam Schiff's district -- but one advantage of living in Los Angeles is that even though we're a deep-blue city, there are FIVE swing districts within an hour's drive, and I can see simply from photographs that there's been a huge push from canvassers knocking on doors in all of those areas.

In some ways, I wonder how much of the post-election narrative will hinge on the Senate. If Republicans hold on there -- as most expect them to -- you can easily imagine the "split decision" takes from pundits. (Some are already publishing this take.) And given that the Republicans as of late don't actually seem to care much about governing by legislation, a scenario where they lose the House but can continue to stack the courts with far-right judges through the Senate wouldn't exactly be the most horrific outcome for them (especially given that they could easily gain a few seats in the Senate even with overwhelming Dem success elsewhere). But an election night where Democrats take both chambers -- which certainly would require A LOT to go right for Dems, but which isn't totally out of reach -- would put a complete halt to the entire Trump agenda, and be a total nightmare outcome for the GOP. (And even more of a nightmare given Trump as president -- you could, for instance, imagine a scenario where a President Marco Rubio was still able to work with a Democratic Congress to pass some portion of his agenda, and even confirm right-leaning/not-Kavanaugh-type judges with enough Democratic votes. Trump, of course, is not that person, and there's certainly no reason in this moment for the Dems to do anything other than obstruct with whatever power they have.)

There's also another question that doesn't seem to be on most folks' radar, but I've been seriously pondering -- if we end up with a 50-50 Senate (or 50-49 on election night, with the Mississippi runoff basically a de facto Republican pickup), what's the likelihood of Chuck Schumer offering Lisa Murkowski the universe to become an independent and caucus with the Democrats?


Return to “Current Events”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest