Everything Is Great and Amazing

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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Heksagon » Wed Jun 28, 2017 1:43 am

Trump did terribly in polls measuring favorability even before he was elected, so I wouldn't read too much into his currently poor approval rating.

A lot of those who "disapprove" of him are Republicans who voted for him anyways out of party loyalty. A smaller, but still significant, amount are women, Latinos and working-class Democrats who don't want to admit publicly that they support him.

There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the Democrats' chances in 2018 and 2020, but currently, I don't see any reason to suppose that Trump's support is significantly lower than it was in November.

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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Jun 27, 2017 8:18 pm

Sonic Youth wrote:
OscarGuy wrote:Approval Numbers:

Gallup - 36%

That was released today. Also released was Rasmussen who no one with a brain would ever cite and it's at 47%.


Ipsos/CBS poll is at 34%.

Hopeful, but not conclusive. The only polls that count are the ones at the ballot box, but we already know that.
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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Sonic Youth » Tue Jun 27, 2017 7:42 pm

OscarGuy wrote:Approval Numbers:

Gallup - 36%

That was released today. Also released was Rasmussen who no one with a brain would ever cite and it's at 47%.


Ipsos/CBS poll is at 34%.
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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Greg » Tue Jun 27, 2017 1:47 pm

Elizabeth Warren Calls For Democrats To Embrace Single-Payer Health Care:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/eli ... mg00000009
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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Jun 27, 2017 12:51 pm

It's not the solid 20% that concerns me. It's the other 16% plus another invisible 10% that tell pollsters one thing and do another.
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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Mister Tee » Tue Jun 27, 2017 11:47 am

Big Magilla wrote:Angus King, Independent Maine Senator, was asked on MSNBC if Trump voters were turning against him on the health bill. His answer was no, Trump supporters see an attack on him as an attack on them.

There's a great deal of sloppy reporting that conflates "Trump voters" with all 60 million people who pulled the lever for him last November, and King (an excellent fellow on almost all scores) falls into that trap here.

Clearly, many of the the second group have abandoned him -- he got 46% on Election Day, and has current poll numbers that (discounting the laughable Rasmussen) average out to mid/high 30s.

What most people mean when they say "Trump voters" is those who were avid about him from the day he announced, turned out in force to win him the nomination, and will stick with him even if, as he says, he shoots someone on 5th Avenue. This number probably bottoms out in the mid/high 20s -- the same percentage as still stood with Nixon the day he resigned -- but for the moment could be somewhere there in the 30s.

To speak of that group as if they're enough to win Trump a second term is innumeracy.

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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Jun 27, 2017 6:36 am

Angus King, Independent Maine Senator, was asked on MSNBC if Trump voters were turning against him on the health bill. His answer was no, Trump supporters see an attack on him as an attack on them.
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Jun 27, 2017 2:22 am

Sonic Youth wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:
There's still the electoral college to give him the edge next time around with the same set of voters and non-voters.


Magilla, did you not see where Mister Tee said "Trump achieved margins of 0.22% in MI, 0.67% in WI, and 0.71% in PA"? He's not going to get exactly the same voters next time around.


Unless there's a third party to take votes from the Democrat again. I agree with Tee's quote of MLK that eventually the arc of history will bend toward justice, but eventually is taking an awfully long time.

We should have gotten rid of the electoral college or rendered it toothless by making each state's vote count equal to their percentage of the national population a long time ago.

The best quote I've seen about the two parties lately is: "The Republicans fight like they're at war. The Democrats fight like they're playing badminton."
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Sonic Youth » Mon Jun 26, 2017 10:44 pm

Big Magilla wrote:
There's still the electoral college to give him the edge next time around with the same set of voters and non-voters.


Magilla, did you not see where Mister Tee said "Trump achieved margins of 0.22% in MI, 0.67% in WI, and 0.71% in PA"? He's not going to get exactly the same voters next time around.
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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby OscarGuy » Mon Jun 26, 2017 7:05 pm

Approval Numbers:

Gallup - 36%

That was released today. Also released was Rasmussen who no one with a brain would ever cite and it's at 47%.
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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Big Magilla » Mon Jun 26, 2017 6:34 pm

I'd love to be wrong, but the last I heard his approval rating had gone up to 40%.

There's still the electoral college to give him the edge next time around with the same set of voters and non-voters.

Of course we can wait until next year and hope, but even if the Dems take back the Congress, they won't be able to get anything done with Trump or Pence's veto power which will only disillusion the masses further.
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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Mister Tee » Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:27 pm

I'm glad Sonic and Oscar Guy have chimed in first, so I don't have to bear the full burden of lecturing you Debbie Downers.

What part of 36% presidential approval ratings leads you to expect 12 years of Republican rule? Trump is MONUMENTALLY unpopular for a president only five months in -- and this with an economy (his legacy from Obama) that should be massively propping up his numbers. (Who gives a shit that the Times keeps finding hardcore Trump voters to say they still like him? They still liked Bush in 2008, as well. The rest of us gave Obama a big victory.) And of course the entire Russia investigation is still only a looming thing. If the murmurs about how deep the probe goes are anything close to the truth, Trump -- and the party that has decided to cleave to him -- will be toxic for a long time to come.

To address the fact that the GOP recovered/became dominant despite Watergate -- context matters. The Democratic Roosevelt coalition had completely collapsed in the mid-60s -- first from the Civil Rights bill, then from Vietnam. The 1968 election somewhat camouflaged this, with Wallace drawing off anti-Dem votes and making it a close contest. But Nixon's 1972 landslide made the situation plain: the country had rallied around a new GOP coalition. Watergate interrupted that, but barely: despite the scandal, a deep recession, and the humiliating end in Vietnam, Carter squeaked by Ford in the smallest way possible. He then found it almost impossible to govern, since he was running against the tide of popular opinion. The Reagan/Bush years were an affirmation of that ideological tide; Watergate -- more a personal scandal for Nixon than evidence of party-wide corruption (esp. with significant numbers of GOPers coming out against Nixon during the impeachment run-up) -- was almost irrelevant, given the prevailing political winds.

(The Harding analogy is even further off. Republicans won all but four presidential elections from 1860-1932. The four Democratic wins were either by microscopic margins or enabled by third-party runs (Wilson never got 50% in either run). And Harding's death enabled the party to sweep the entire Teapot Dome affair under the rug.)

Today's situation is not remotely comparable. The Democrat coalition isn't coming apart. Have we forgotten, Hillary Clinton got almost three million more votes than Trump? (And every Dem presidential candidate from 1996 on has got a minimum 48% of the vote.) She lost the office only because Trump achieved margins of 0.22% in MI, 0.67% in WI, and 0.71% in PA, and picked up 46 crucial EC votes because of it; her only comparably close state was NH, worth a measly 4EVs. He also won FL by 1.18%. Give her just an even split of those states, and she's in the White House, vetoing any attempt to take health care from 22 million people. (And we may never know how much better she'd have done without the clear interference from Moscow.) Do we think this statistical fluke is so easily replicable? And as for Congress -- I saw figures today saying the 48 Dem Senators got 24 million votes more than their 52 Republican counterparts...and we know the gerrymander of 2010 has kept Dems from capturing their share of seats every cycle since. We live under a variant of apartheid, with the minority exercising power it has earned only in a technical sense. We should be angry about this, and develop tactics to fight it...but to drop back and say we're doomed is ridiculous.

Believe me, I WISH the Russia investigation was moving more quickly...but, as Preet Bharara told Hasan Minhaj last week, you can't binge-watch history. It'll happen at the rate it can happen. (Though, compared to Watergate, this is moving at warp-speed.) Also believe me: in the meantime, I'm finding it agonizing to watch a shouldn't-be-there Gorsuch issuing vile rulings...and I have a fatalism that the allegedly undecided Senators will fall in line in a few days and take health care away from a vast number of our citizens. I wish it could be stopped. I wish it had been stopped last November, and I curse every idiot who decided Hillary wasn't quite worthy of his or her precious vote (people are calling the current Supreme Court the Sarandon Court, with which I fully agree). But I'll stick with Martin Luther King, and presume the arc of history will eventually bend toward justice.

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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Sabin » Mon Jun 26, 2017 4:58 pm

American politics are cyclical and it's easier to run on change and strength over patience and intelligence. The problems we have require so much patience and intelligence, and we've never been less of either. In that sense, we deserve Trump. He and this group of deplorables are as unfit to steer us in the right direction of today as the Republicans of the 20's were. The only difference between then and now is that because of the internet we can see and inform each other of the signs of radical instability a mile away...but nobody cares.

So...who are our strength & change candidates for 2020? Who's got the message? Who can run on solving the problems? Or are we going to really run on the emotional identity politics of "They go low but we go high" again? I'm not asking for a list of candidates. I'm just concerned that the only way to defeat Trump and his party requires losing tactics.
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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby OscarGuy » Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:16 pm

I think referencing the Democrats voting for Trump is a misguided thing. Yes, some people who are registered Democrats did vote for Trump, but many of these Democrats haven't voted Republican in many years. A lot of that has to do with the shift the Democratic Party made in the 1960s and forward. They moved towards a more inclusive platform, which meant that a lot of blue collar workers who were once reliably Democratic shifted Republican because, sadly, many of them actually are racist or they at least believe minorities are stealing their jobs.

They also haven't been able to get away from the Industrial Era mindset that has stymied growth. They can't conceptualize that we are in a post-Industrial world, which means that what they still cling to in terms of job prospects is from an Industrial perspective, which are fading away. The same goes for retail employees as the retail world is moving into the online sales and delivery realm. These jobs will also disappear.

Fundamentally, we need to push towards an improvement in the job market that opens up jobs these folk haven't had access to by improving transitional job training and get out there and help them find the work. The Bernie Sanders mindset of wage parity isn't going to fly with a lot of these voters and, I suspect, it has more to do with the fact that the "livable wage" concept is important to them, but by elevating those who typically make minimum wage to a level more in line with where they have gotten after decades in their jobs, it makes them feel like their hard work isn't paying off any longer and that they are being devalued as employees by allowing "lesser" workers to make money more closely equivalent to their wages.

There are a lot of problems. The issue is that the Republicans AREN'T offering solutions, they are merely trading on fear. Fear of Others specifically. Until we can bridge the gap to those who feel that Others are stealing their hard-earned work, we won't be able to win back those once-reliable Democrats who are now Democrats In Name Only.
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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Sonic Youth » Mon Jun 26, 2017 12:38 pm

I don't see any evidence that we're going to have 12 years of Republican dominance, unless we let burnout and low morale take over. If we think it's going to be a fait accompli, then that's what it will be.

ETA: I shouldn't say I see no evidence. I know there's evidence that things could go either way. Rather, I should say I see no reason why we should draw these conclusions.
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