Everything Is Great and Amazing

Mister Tee
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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Mister Tee » Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:13 am

I wonder what this outcome is going to do to Sabin's theory about high youth/minority turnout becoming the new normal. That increase in turnout HAS been responsible for much of the good news from tonight -- Beto's youth appeal probably won some Dem House seats in Texas. But the bald fact is, the glamour candidates who did most to get these groups excited -- O'Rourke, Gillum, Abrams -- all lost. Will that disillusionment push these reluctant voters back into their caves?

ON EDIT: So, I just checked and saw that Gillum lost by a heartbreaking 1% and Beto by only 3.1%. Sometimes, I think it was easier living during the Reagan era, when we knew we were going to lose big and had few expectations. To be losing these important races, with such excellent candidates, by such paltry margins hurts a lot more.

And Stacey Abrams is down by 3 -- another strong showing. Her race actually hasn't been called, because Kemp could conceivably drop under the 50% mark and trigger a runoff -- though it's unlikely, with him sitting at 51% with 96% in. (Unless there are some ton of provisionals out there -- a possibility, given how much I presume Kemp had his people blocking Abrams-leaners from casting regular ballots.)

Anyway, the point here: these are all REALLY great showings, and do nothing to call into question the quality of the candidates. They just ran in the wrong states.

The Original BJ
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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby The Original BJ » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:57 pm

Mister Tee wrote:But they're enduring multiple disappointments at the governor and Senate level.


And I think the biggest disappointment has to be that the 2020 Senate map is starting to look close to insurmountable for the Democrats to even get to 50-50.

Mister Tee
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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Mister Tee » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:36 pm

This is the most schizophrenic election I've ever lived through. Dems are getting every conceivable break in House toss-ups (even Steve King is running behind at the moment). But they're enduring multiple disappointments at the governor and Senate level.

The election as a whole feels like the result of someone rubbing a magic lamp who failed to be specific enough about some of it.

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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Bog » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:27 pm

Oh Ohio...you sonofabitch...why can't you be pronounced Iowa...embarrassment

As I'm drowning in my sorrows of Balderson and DeWine and a mostly all red state house...there is actually so much to celebrate...

Lizzie Fletcher!!

Sharice Davids!!

Abby Finkenauer!!

Abby Spanberger!!

Of course AOC never to be discounted!!

Antonio Delgado!!!!!!!

Kobach going down....hard!

Max Rose!!

Kendra Horn!!

And likely more to come...

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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:24 pm

The Dems just got their 23 pickups. Now it's just a matter of by how much they lead. Looks like 7 more for sure.
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Okri » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:45 pm

1.4 million people in Florida just got the right to vote back. That's pretty huge.

As for Sabin's question re: the new normal - I can see it, to be honest. Especially since these midterms aren't the ironclad repudiation of Trump many of us craved. The future is looking pretty challenging for this planet and I think the shocks of Trump and Brexit, alongside the most recent report of Climate Change speeding upon us like a locomotive, could trigger more engagement.

The Original BJ
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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby The Original BJ » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:27 pm

And NBC just projected Democrats won the House.

So however disappointing other results end up -- and man, I really would like to see De Santis go down -- that's a huge sigh of relief.

Mister Tee
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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Mister Tee » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:19 pm

1) What a difference 45 minutes make. Dems have been winning House races hands over fist, and Fox -- of all places -- has already projected them to take control (something I had seriously begun to doubt). My mood is considerably up (especially after seeing Kobach lost the Kansas governorship!).

2) Neither Beto nor Gillum has lost yet. Gillum would hurt more, since he seemed to have a decent cushion.

3) I'd actually posit that Beto would be a better presidential bet if he missed by a hair, given he's promised to serve out his Texas term. A guy who got that close in Texas might look like a very strong national Dem candidate (seeing Texas is way down on the list of states Dems count on).

There is history, you know, for a guy losing a prominent Senate race coming back and winning the presidency soon after. Fella name of Lincoln.

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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Bog » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:03 pm

Hoping it's a dumbass Florida fuckers aberration...but Gillum was amazing! If Gillum and O'Rourke finish tonight without a job at all we sure are losing some seriously solid potential, extremely charismatic presidential candidates in my opinion.

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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Mister Tee » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:25 pm

I have a similar sick feeling to what I had two years ago. We're not catching any breaks at all. This is not the repudiation we needed. I'm edging toward despair.

The Original BJ
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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby The Original BJ » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:04 pm

A Tweet from Judd Legum sums it up pretty well: "Democrats may or may not take the House but I think one thing progressives are waiting for is the country to rise up and decisively reject Trumpism. It's not happening."

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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:52 pm

Bog wrote:I haven't gotten home yet and stationed myself in front of Rachel and Brian yet...but is it already time to vomit?!?! Is this happening? I don't want to be dramatic or maybe I just have no other choice. Like I said I'm not seeing what's left...but at 95% please let it be all Dade and Broward or if the latest projections were this far off on Gillum then this night will just be a redux late into a drunken cussing night.

Mostly Dade and Broward with a little in the Panhandle.
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Sabin » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:50 pm

How can you be talking about 2020? I can barely talk about right now. I do not feel good about these numbers
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Bog » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:43 pm

I haven't gotten home yet and stationed myself in front of Rachel and Brian yet...but is it already time to vomit?!?! Is this happening? I don't want to be dramatic or maybe I just have no other choice. Like I said I'm not seeing what's left...but at 95% please let it be all Dade and Broward or if the latest projections were this far off on Gillum then this night will just be a redux late into a drunken cussing night.

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Re: Everything Is Great and Amazing

Postby Bog » Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:18 pm

Politicized Vegas type sites and odds only really list Trump and Kamala Harris with the former roughly 2.5 to 1 odds and Kamala 8 to 1 odds. This of course does not include an actual matchup so hard to gauge. Warren, Biden, Beto, and Booker all come in at about the odds of the Brewers or Phillies or Rockies to win the World Series.


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