Everything Is Great and Amazing

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criddic3
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Re: Everything Is Great Again

Postby criddic3 » Thu Mar 30, 2017 3:34 am

Here's an interesting article about the 2018 midterm contest that already has people on both sides buzzing at this early date.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2017/03/28/with_health_bill_failure_ryan_may_be_on_pelosis_midterm_path_133450.html
"If you can't stand the nut on the left and you can't stand the nut on the right, go for the Johnson,” Jonathan S. Bush (10/21/2016)

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Re: Everything Is Great Again

Postby criddic3 » Wed Mar 29, 2017 6:58 pm

:D
"If you can't stand the nut on the left and you can't stand the nut on the right, go for the Johnson,” Jonathan S. Bush (10/21/2016)

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Re: Everything Is Great Again

Postby Bog » Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:50 am

criddic3 wrote:Remember, though, that this is a net gain scenario. Democrats could lose some seats, as well

I give dude...I tap out

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Re: Everything Is Great Again

Postby criddic3 » Tue Mar 28, 2017 9:20 pm

Bog wrote:
criddic3 wrote:Simply put, Republicans have more opportunities to flip seats than Democrats do.

Ok so we're all in agreeance here...sadly

criddic3 wrote:They have a 52 - 48 seat majority. Hence the fact that they need a net gain of 6 plus the 2 independents in order to win back the majority.


Are we really not all in agreeance that 48 plus 6 is 54? And we don't all agree 'net' means seats added? I guess you got me here...I cannot assess how the Wikipedia info is supposed to explain why 48 plus a net gain of 3 seats does not equal majority?

However if you click 'previous election' 4 consecutive times you will see the last midterm after a very polarizing president first took office...where a net gain of 6 was added for the party not holding the executive branch...so wishful thinking?


I will concede that 51 is needed to make a majority. However, Republicans are ahead by 6 seats without the independents. Somehow I was doubling up on the independent seats. Bernie Sanders will likely be re-elected in Vermont, but Angus King could conceivably be defeated in Maine. Remember, though, that this is a net gain scenario. Democrats could lose some seats, as well. With 23 up for grabs they will have a lot more to worry about in terms of resources. Republican Senators up for re-election are most often in safe states like Texas, Wyoming, Utah, Nebraska, Mississippi, Tennessee and Alabama. That leaves 2 states that lean Republican like Arizona and Nevada. Unlike the House, where all members are up for re-election at the same time, and therefore can be vulnerable to a wave election, the Senate is much less likely to have that kind of occurrence. We also should remember that it took a couple of elections for Republicans to gain the seats they needed for a majority in the Senate. They were able to do so in 2014, which was the second major Republican midterm election in a row. In 2010, despite a wave election and 6 seat gains, Republicans still could not make the majority. Winning Senate races when you're the out party is not easy when you have such a narrow path as Democrats do this time around. It's possible but not something I would bet on.
"If you can't stand the nut on the left and you can't stand the nut on the right, go for the Johnson,” Jonathan S. Bush (10/21/2016)

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Re: Everything Is Great Again

Postby Bog » Tue Mar 28, 2017 6:58 pm

criddic3 wrote:Simply put, Republicans have more opportunities to flip seats than Democrats do.

Ok so we're all in agreeance here...sadly

criddic3 wrote:They have a 52 - 48 seat majority. Hence the fact that they need a net gain of 6 plus the 2 independents in order to win back the majority.


Are we really not all in agreeance that 48 plus 6 is 54? And we don't all agree 'net' means seats added? I guess you got me here...I cannot assess how the Wikipedia info is supposed to explain why 48 plus a net gain of 3 seats does not equal majority?

However if you click 'previous election' 4 consecutive times you will see the last midterm after a very polarizing president first took office...where a net gain of 6 was added for the party not holding the executive branch...so wishful thinking?

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Re: Everything Is Great Again

Postby criddic3 » Tue Mar 28, 2017 5:32 pm

Greg wrote:
criddic3 wrote:Republicans have 9 Senate Seats up for election next year. Democrats have 23. In order for Democrats to regain the chamber, they would have to hold all of their seats and pick up 6 while also holding on to the two independent seats that caucus with them. 8 seats.


There are 48 seats in the Democratic Caucus (including the Independents), so, the Democrats only need to pick up three Republican seats for a 51-seat majority. What's this, alternative math?


I mentioned this already. They have a 52 - 48 seat majority. Hence the fact that they need a net gain of 6 plus the 2 independents in order to win back the majority. Simply put, Republicans have more opportunities to flip seats than Democrats do.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_St ... ions,_2018
"If you can't stand the nut on the left and you can't stand the nut on the right, go for the Johnson,” Jonathan S. Bush (10/21/2016)

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Re: Everything Is Great Again

Postby Bog » Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:05 pm

I was going to make a similar comment...although I much prefer Criddic's 57-43 Dem lean result come November 2017. As I've stated before...2018 feels super grim for some get back results we need...but this sort of midterm also seems like the kind where Dems don't struggle to keep any in place seats. Nevada feels almost likely with Arizona and/or Nebraska (in that order) feel possible. Even with a 50/50 folks like Collins or Murkowski (others to come I'm sure) have shown the potential to render Pence moot in a vote.

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Re: Everything Is Great Again

Postby Greg » Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:04 pm

criddic3 wrote:Republicans have 9 Senate Seats up for election next year. Democrats have 23. In order for Democrats to regain the chamber, they would have to hold all of their seats and pick up 6 while also holding on to the two independent seats that caucus with them. 8 seats.


There are 48 seats in the Democratic Caucus (including the Independents), so, the Democrats only need to pick up three Republican seats for a 51-seat majority. What's this, alternative math?
"Wall Street is not the solution to our problem. Wall Street is the problem!"

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Re: Everything Is Great Again

Postby criddic3 » Sun Mar 26, 2017 7:24 pm

Sabin wrote: Nixon had to deal with a Democratic Congress and Senate. Trump doesn't.


I've said a similar thing in conversations recently. The Republicans would have to be really embarrassed by President Trump or have real pressure applied in order to try to throw him out. It's a long and exhausting process to impeach and convict. Anyone remember the Clinton impeachment? Took nearly 2 years, half a term. Certainly would make for great theater, with everyone holding their breathes nervously as proceedings were heard and a trial was conducted. Realistically this is impractical for Republicans. They just had a major setback on health care. They are going to move on to tax reform and of course the border wall. The Russian-connection thing is just gonna go around in circles and will eventually peter out unless something big is found soon. So I agree with Sabin that "we're just stuck with him."

Some people say that there's a big switch about to happen with the midterms, but I doubt it.

Here are the stats:

Republicans have 9 Senate Seats up for election next year. Democrats have 23. In order for Democrats to regain the chamber, they would have to hold all of their seats and pick up 6 while also holding on to the two independent seats that caucus with them. 8 seats. They are not likely to flip all 9 Republican seats and they will probably lose a few of their own. Not an easy task.

Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats in the House. If there is a wave like 2006 (where they gained 31) then it is possible. But what would be the catalyst for a wave towards the Democrats in a midterm, which in recent times has skewed more toward a conservative electorate?

My guess is something more dramatic will have to occur for Democrats to take back one or -- certainly -- both houses.
"If you can't stand the nut on the left and you can't stand the nut on the right, go for the Johnson,” Jonathan S. Bush (10/21/2016)

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Re: Everything Is Great Again

Postby Mister Tee » Sun Mar 26, 2017 3:28 pm

Big Magilla wrote:Maureen Dowd calls Trump a tool:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/25/opin ... .html?_r=2

Pot calls kettle black.

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Re: Everything Is Great Again

Postby Big Magilla » Sun Mar 26, 2017 11:20 am

“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

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Re: Everything Is Great Again

Postby Okri » Fri Mar 24, 2017 9:34 pm

Quote from Senator Bob Menendez: "Hey Republicans, don't worry, that burn is covered under the Affordable Care Act."

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Re: Everything Is Great Again

Postby Greg » Fri Mar 24, 2017 2:51 pm

Trumpcare crashes and burns. The House won't even vote on it.
"Wall Street is not the solution to our problem. Wall Street is the problem!"

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Re: Everything Is Great Again

Postby Big Magilla » Fri Mar 24, 2017 4:59 am

Nah, the bigger they are, the harder they fall. It's just a matter of time. As Lincoln said, "you can fool some of the people all of the time and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time."

It won't get any better with Pence in charge, but at least we won't have the constant drama.
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.” - Voltaire

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Re: Everything Is Great Again

Postby Sabin » Thu Mar 23, 2017 4:56 pm

My question is "What happens next?" Comey is a big question mark to me, but it seems unlikely that he won't find something incredibly damning considering that half of his job seems like it's already been done for him. Some definition of treason has been committed. What then? Nixon had to deal with a Democratic Congress and Senate. Trump doesn't. The Democrats don't have the votes to impeach him. So what? We're waiting for Republicans to cross party lines and stand up to him? Why would they start now when some of these people owe him their jobs and the republicans who opposed him lost? I hope I'm wrong but whenever anyone starts explaining to me how he could be removed from office, it has the same tone of those who said he could never be the nominee.

I think we're just stuck with him.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver


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