Would You Support A Progressive Primary Challenge To Obama?

Would You Support A Progressive Primary Challenge To Obama?

Yes
9
53%
No
8
47%
 
Total votes: 17

Bog
Assistant
Posts: 821
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:39 am
Location: United States

Re: Would You Support A Progressive Primary Challenge To Oba

Postby Bog » Fri Aug 12, 2011 11:47 pm

Sonic Youth wrote:But regarding the original question: it doesn't matter. Obama will win against any primary challenger, and I doubt there'll be one anyway. He'll win re-election, and it'll be an easy one since all the true heavy-hitters on the Republican side are sitting this election out and waiting for 2016. I mean, I've never seen such a cotterie of mentally defective idiots that are the Republican presidential candidates.


I would think a primary challenger might only strengthen his chances...spurring on those who voted for him in '08 as his/her sole political gesture in life to make sure he's not simply a one-term hack mentioned with the likes of Bush elder and Hoover, etc. Not one of my employees had ever voted before 3 years ago, and claim they won't again...but the combination of the Bush debacle and potential history being made had them carpooling everyone in droves. Once the word gets out more to the non-cable news watching public that so avidly supported him, that its on again I are a Bush over Kerry type victory for B.O. over Romney. The GOP of course only losing as a future candidate the worst frontrunner in history.

Sonic, which contenders are you thinking...Christie??? Ryan??? Thune??? Ugh

I actually quite like Huntsman....likely due to the way the party lines are currently structured he fits absolutely nowhere and therefore will be seen as a failure...likely striking quite a good balance in ideology.

User avatar
OscarGuy
Site Admin
Posts: 12545
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:22 am
Location: Springfield, MO
Contact:

Re: Would You Support A Progressive Primary Challenge To Oba

Postby OscarGuy » Wed Aug 10, 2011 10:57 pm

First, before anyone blows a gasket over anything Rasmussen puts out, be warned that they are heavily biased towards Republican candidates and ideals. There are few unbiased polling firms and that RCP refuses to label Rasmussen as (R), then I would take anything they post with a grain of salt. And I'm sorry, using the "Generic Republican" vs. Obama model is highly flawed. When put against a number of candidates, Obama wins fairly easily.

Over Romney by 3.6% on average (using your own RCP source)
Over Perry by 12.0% on average
Over Bachmann by 12.0% on average
Over Palin by 18.7% on average
Over Paul by 10.7% on average
Over Cain by 14.7% on average
Over Pawlenty by 10.7% on average
Over Gingrich by 14.7% on average
Over Huntsman (the only Republican candidate I would ever consider voting for in this field) by 14.0% on average

And here's something that's going to cause a problem. All those primaries, especially in states where Tea Party nuts are pushing hard, will force all candidate to tack hard right in order to appease that base and get votes. They are then going to have to tack center during the election, but guarantee that the Dems are going to take all those hard right views and feature them in advertising. The Tea Party might do more harm than good because they are the lunatic fringe, no matter how many moderates belong to the Tea Party. As long as they support candidates who are hard right social conservatives (against abortion, against gay rights, against anything that could be considered social equality), they will continue to lose when put against centrists. There's a reason the Tea Party was able to win so many house seats while fail to capture many senate contests. They were too far right for an entire state of voters, yet in small, state-determined districts, because they are gerrymandered to extremes on both sides, they are much more able to garner votes and influence to get their candidates elected. The Tea Party can't win on a national or state-wide level. This has been proven on several occasions.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin

FilmFan720
Tenured
Posts: 3451
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 3:57 pm
Location: Illinois

Re: Would You Support A Progressive Primary Challenge To Oba

Postby FilmFan720 » Wed Aug 10, 2011 10:08 pm

criddic3 wrote:1.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html
As you can see, Gallup has the president at 41% approval and 51% disapproval as of their poll of August 7-9.


FYI: Bush hit as low as 46% as late as May of 2004. Clinton was at 41% in Jan of 1996, and was only 46% at this point right now in his term. Reagan was at 44% in August 1983. Bush the elder was over 70% in August 1991. Opinion polls at this point have no marking on the eventual outcome.

The other thing to remember is that the Republican nominee still has to get through what looks like a pretty rough, cutthroat primary. The party is pretty splintered, and getting the nomination is going involve quite a bit of compromise and enemy-forming.
"Go into the world and do well. But more importantly, go into the world and do good."
- Minor Myers, Jr.

User avatar
Sonic Youth
Laureate
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 8:35 pm
Location: USA

Re: Would You Support A Progressive Primary Challenge To Oba

Postby Sonic Youth » Wed Aug 10, 2011 9:45 pm

criddic3 wrote:1.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html
As you can see, Gallup has the president at 41% approval and 51% disapproval as of their poll of August 7-9.


That's excellent polling numbers for anyone who's the predecessor of President Twenty-Eight Percent.

2. Rasmussen http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/generic_presidential_ballot/election_2012_generic_presidential_ballot has the gerneric Republican up 46% - 43%. And I did say "some polls" had them up "as much as 6%," which is true.


No, you never said that at all.

You said "Five: For some time now, a generic Republican beats Obama by as much as 6%". That's it. You never said "some polls had them up by 6%". Now, you did follow it up with "and individual opponents are starting to gain ground on him in some recent polling". But those are two independent clauses; you mention "some recent polling" in the second clause but not in the first clause. Even if you intended the sentence to mean "some polls had them up as much as 6%" - which I doubt; I'm positive the Gallup poll I posted blindsided you - your sentence as written doesn't say that and wouldn't be read that way.

But regarding the original question: it doesn't matter. Obama will win against any primary challenger, and I doubt there'll be one anyway. He'll win re-election, and it'll be an easy one since all the true heavy-hitters on the Republican side are sitting this election out and waiting for 2016. I mean, I've never seen such a cotterie of mentally defective idiots that are the Republican presidential candidates. If Obama can't win against one of them, there's something seriously wrong with him. And, for that matter, if the Democrats can't win back the House or at the very least win back many of the seats they lost, then there's something wrong with them as well. But I'd be delighted to see a progressive primary challenger take on Obama. Not because he'll win, but he can at least call him out on his dismal civil libertarian record. And maybe... maybe... it will gently force Obama to stop listening to his advisors and stop moving to the center-right on every issue.

But if you're looking to win, it'll be a pointless endeavor. Progressives should concentrate on the small, local races and work our way upwards instead.
"What the hell?"
Win Butler

Sabin
Laureate
Posts: 7384
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: Would You Support A Progressive Primary Challenge To Oba

Postby Sabin » Wed Aug 10, 2011 7:30 pm

criddic3 wrote
5. I do not "troll" Republican message boards. I just know how to read newspapers and I've seen polls. I have also seen enough of President Obama's speeches to know that people aren't buying his rhetoric anymore.

Fair enough. Visit?
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

Greg
Tenured
Posts: 2723
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 1:12 pm
Location: Greg
Contact:

Re: Would You Support A Progressive Primary Challenge To Oba

Postby Greg » Wed Aug 10, 2011 7:27 pm

criddic3 wrote:1.
3. I'm not going to play a game of semantics. We do borrow too much money for things, as we have too much DEBT. That is a problem. We must have it fixed.

4. Since when does balancing the budget cause a bigger problem than spending more than we take in?? If I was to treat my life that way, I would never pay my bills. Even if we can currently pay our bills, by borrowing, eventually that won't be true. The Democrats have not passed a budget in a few years now.


It is not semantics. I am asking you if the deficit and the debt of the federal government must come from the federal government borrowing money that it has to pay back. This has to do with the supposition that the federal government operates the way you and private businesses do. Here is a hint, you can be charged with counterfeitting, the federal government can not.

Defecit reduction did cause a huge problem for the United States when it was in a similar situation. In 1937, when the United States was still struggling out for the Great Depression, Roosevelt pulled back on New Deal spending to reduce the deficit and the country plunged into a deep recession. Conversely, World War II, which led to deficits much larger than today, brough the United States out of the Depression and led to the 1950s and 1960s, two of America's best ever decades economically.

User avatar
criddic3
Tenured
Posts: 2752
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2003 11:08 pm
Location: New York, USA
Contact:

Re: Would You Support A Progressive Primary Challenge To Oba

Postby criddic3 » Wed Aug 10, 2011 7:11 pm

1.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html
As you can see, Gallup has the president at 41% approval and 51% disapproval as of their poll of August 7-9.

2. Rasmussen http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/generic_presidential_ballot/election_2012_generic_presidential_ballot has the gerneric Republican up 46% - 43%. And I did say "some polls" had them up "as much as 6%," which is true. The Congressional match up is also around that for 2012 so far.

3. I'm not going to play a game of semantics. We do borrow too much money for things, as we have too much DEBT. That is a problem. We must have it fixed.

4. Since when does balancing the budget cause a bigger problem than spending more than we take in?? If I was to treat my life that way, I would never pay my bills. Even if we can currently pay our bills, by borrowing, eventually that won't be true. The Democrats have not passed a budget in a few years now.

5. I do not "troll" Republican message boards. I just know how to read newspapers and I've seen polls. I have also seen enough of President Obama's speeches to know that people aren't buying his rhetoric anymore.
"If you can't stand the nut on the left and you can't stand the nut on the right, go for the Johnson,” Jonathan S. Bush (10/21/2016)

Sabin
Laureate
Posts: 7384
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Re: Would You Support A Progressive Primary Challenge To Oba

Postby Sabin » Wed Aug 10, 2011 6:51 pm

I doubt I'll vote for Barack Obama in 2012. I live in California. He's going to win that state, and I'd rather throw my support towards a candidate whom I truly believe embodies my views, grassroots or otherwise. Lord knows, I will still stand by my vote for him in 2008, but after voting for Gore and Kerry, I don't know. I'd rather remain morally and ideologically consistent. I keep hearing rumblings about Hilary Clinton, but I believe they're fabricated. She tows the party line pretty consistently. I don't think she would risk losing her party top political office for anywhere between four to twelve years. Would I support a progressive primary challenge to Obama? Considering that I'm willing to vote third party this go around, yeah. I would. Then again, it's easy for me to say that from a state like California.

I think that Obama's biggest liability is himself for the most part. I wouldn't bet against him just yet because this is beyond a terrible field for the opposition. These are some of the most repugnant people I've ever seen open their mouths. And yet, fundamentally there is something wrong with Barack Obama's leadership abilities and his ability to invoke a sense of trust. I'm not sure I necessarily blame him but rather there is something fundamentally Democrat about it. Just as John Kerry "trusted" voters to see through the Swiftboat smear, Barack Obama "trusted" Americans to see what he was doing with health care. And it's all snowballed since.

I'm not going to attempt to back this up with polls or numbers. Like criddic, I'm just going to make a baseless generalized statement that derives something from what I see, hear, and sense (though freed from whatever Republican Message Board he trolls) and say that I think Barack Obama has lost a lot of trust in the American people to deliver what he promised, and that at this point he seems as much a corporatist as anyone who has held office. Which is to say this: I don't think his words hold much meaning anymore. And that can be dangerous as they have to carry over three debates. Barack Obama will have to do something more than the same old talk and I don't know if that's in his programming.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

Greg
Tenured
Posts: 2723
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 1:12 pm
Location: Greg
Contact:

Re: Would You Support A Progressive Primary Challenge To Oba

Postby Greg » Wed Aug 10, 2011 6:00 pm

criddic3 wrote:Six: He could do a Bill Clinton and tack to the middle (I know some liberals/progressives feel he has already done so, but most people don't buy that), and say 'you know what? my policies haven't been working like I thought they would. Let's seriously cut spending and balance the budget for the first time in my tenure'...but he won't.


Yes, Obama's policies have not been working; but, to seriously cut spending and balance the budget would make things even worse, to the point of pushing the United States right into a second Great Depression.

criddic, I have a budget question for you. True or false, does the federal government of the United States have to borrow money to finance deficits?

User avatar
Sonic Youth
Laureate
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 8:35 pm
Location: USA

Re: Would You Support A Progressive Primary Challenge To Oba

Postby Sonic Youth » Wed Aug 10, 2011 5:36 pm

OscarGuy wrote:I'm also of the (hopeful) opinion that if Obama can get re-elected, since he will not have to face re-election again, will finally shift all the way to the left.


Ha! Yeah, right.

I remember thinking the exact same thing for Clinton. I won't make that same mistake again.
"What the hell?"

Win Butler

User avatar
Sonic Youth
Laureate
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 8:35 pm
Location: USA

Re: Would You Support A Progressive Primary Challenge To Oba

Postby Sonic Youth » Wed Aug 10, 2011 5:31 pm

criddic3 wrote:
Five: For some time now, a generic Republican beats Obama by as much as 6%, and individual opponents are starting to gain ground on him in some recent polling. Bad news for an incumbent president with a terrible economy.



Gallup: Obama surges to lead against generic Republican

This came out today.

I don't have time to tear apart your points bit-by-bit, but your Point No. One proves how fucking far off the plantation you are, if we go by either ideology, intelligence or both.
"What the hell?"

Win Butler

User avatar
criddic3
Tenured
Posts: 2752
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2003 11:08 pm
Location: New York, USA
Contact:

Re: Would You Support A Progressive Primary Challenge To Oba

Postby criddic3 » Wed Aug 10, 2011 5:11 pm

First of all, Obama is NOT a particularly strong candidate for re-election, which is why you hear people like Ralph Nader and Bernie Sanders calling for a Primary challenger. In the latest Gallup poll, he only has 40% approval. Other polls are equally bad for the president, especially on the topic of the economy. Now, he certainly can change that but there are a couple of reasons he won't.

One: His base thinks he's not liberal enough. This is an insane notion, given his stimulus and Obamacare, as well as his insistance on raising taxes on the "very rich."

Two: His opposition from Republicans and Tea Party members is really intense. That means these people will vote.

Three: Independents have left him, giving him around 35% approval in some polls.

Four: In important states like Ohio, Florida and even Pennsylvania, the president's support is severely lacking.

Five: For some time now, a generic Republican beats Obama by as much as 6%, and individual opponents are starting to gain ground on him in some recent polling. Bad news for an incumbent president with a terrible economy.

Six: He could do a Bill Clinton and tack to the middle (I know some liberals/progressives feel he has already done so, but most people don't buy that), and say 'you know what? my policies haven't been working like I thought they would. Let's seriously cut spending and balance the budget for the first time in my tenure'...but he won't. He'll keep blaming President Bush and the Tea Party. Gee, I seem to recall that for two years of his presidency, Democrats controlled both houses of Congress.

I would be happy to see a primary for Obama if only because it would be interesting to see who steps up to challenge him. Either way, he's in trouble for re-election. Can't say this early whether he will lose, but I give it an 80% chance of happening. If unemployment is still really high and the economy still slow, at this time next year, that goes up to 95%. If Republicans choose a lousy candidate, his chances get slightly better. But I tell you, even John McCain (who got 46% popular vote last time) ... heck even Bob Dole could win in this environment. If his numbers go into the 30s, forget it, Sarah Palin could beat him.
"If you can't stand the nut on the left and you can't stand the nut on the right, go for the Johnson,” Jonathan S. Bush (10/21/2016)

User avatar
OscarGuy
Site Admin
Posts: 12545
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:22 am
Location: Springfield, MO
Contact:

Re: Would You Support A Progressive Primary Challenge To Oba

Postby OscarGuy » Wed Aug 10, 2011 3:33 pm

I'm also of the (hopeful) opinion that if Obama can get re-elected, since he will not have to face re-election again, will finally shift all the way to the left. A lot of people forget that most presidents do their legacy work in their last term (most notably the last two years of their second term). This is a period where they don't have to worry about the drawback of unpopular decisions. But we shall see. A lot depends on who has control of congress those last two years of his second term should he win re-election.
Wesley Lovell

"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin

Greg
Tenured
Posts: 2723
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 1:12 pm
Location: Greg
Contact:

Re: Would You Support A Progressive Primary Challenge To Oba

Postby Greg » Wed Aug 10, 2011 1:41 pm

Mister Tee wrote:I2) But if you want to do your best to put a Republican in thw White House, go ahead and mount a primary challenge. Ask the incumbents of 1912, 1952, 1968 and 1980 how well that worked out.


Those were all unpopular incumbents. I would argue that umpopular incumbents do not get primay challenges to begin with; and, unpopular incumbents can not win reelection. 1912, 1952, 1968 and 1980 were all instances of the party that held the White House attempting to avoid defeat by primarying an unpopular incumbent and failing; but, had they stayed with the incumbent, they would have still lost.

User avatar
taki15
Temp
Posts: 372
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2007 4:29 am

Re: Would You Support A Progressive Primary Challenge To Oba

Postby taki15 » Wed Aug 10, 2011 12:52 pm

There was an interesting back and forth the last days between Drew Westen and Jonathan Chait about the subject.

Personally I agree with Bruce Bartlett's opinion that Obama is the Democrats Nixon. Just like Republicans thought they put an unabashed right-winger in 1968, only to be stunned and frustrated seeing him put wage and price controls, create EPA and visit China, Democrats now believed they elected an unapologetic liberal and are normally disappointed and angry when they see him extend the Bush tax cuts, caving to Republican demands during the debt ceiling debate, and talking about deficit reduction and entitlement cuts(among other things).

My impression is that liberals are angry mainly because Obama proved himself to be a lousy negotiator and that he seems more interested (to the point of obsession) to make a deal and appear bipartisan, no matter how bad it is for his party and the country, rather than actually promote a progressive agenda. Frum said in an article I posted, his red lines aren't his party's red lines. But considering how badly his debt ceiling deal is going to hamper the economy, I'm starting to wonder if he is even interested in getting reelected.

P.S. Nice to see Mister Tee posting again.


Return to “Current Events”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest