2009 box-office Predix - Why not?

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MovieWes
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Postby MovieWes » Sat Jan 17, 2009 12:25 pm

Might as well let the 2008 thread die...

EXCLUSIVE EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $9.5M, $3,022 PTA, $9.5M cume
2. NEW – Notorious (Fox Searchlight) - $9M, $5,495 PTA, $9M cume
3. NEW - My Bloody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate) - $7.5M, $2,960 PTA, $7.5M cume
4. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $6.5M, $2,187, $57.49M cume
5. NEW – Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $4.7M, $1,437 PTA, $4.7M cume
6. Bride Wars (Fox) - $3.55M, $1,100 PTA, $29.37M cume
7. Defiance (Paramount Vantage) - $2.9M, $1,621 PTA, $3.24M cume
8. Marley & Me (Fox) - $2.3M, $779 PTA, $128.7M cume
9. The Unborn (Rogue) - $2.2M, $933 PTA, $25.43M cume
10. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $1.7M, $765 PTA, $98.72M cume
11. Bedtime Stories (Disney) - $1.65M, $630 PTA, $100.55M cume
12. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $1.3M, $2,234 PTA, $38.13M cume

EXCLUSIVE EARLY 4-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $36M, $11,450 PTA, $36M cume
2. NEW – Notorious (Fox Searchlight) - $29M, $17,705 PTA, $29M cume
3. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $26.65M, $8,967, $77.64M cume
4. NEW – Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $26.32M, $8,046 PTA, $26.32M cume
5. NEW - My Bloody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate) - $22.5M, $8,879 PTA, $22.5M cume
6. Bride Wars (Fox) - $14.91, $4,619 PTA, $40.73M cume
7. Defiance (Paramount Vantage) - $12.47M, $6,970 PTA, $12.81M cume
8. Marley & Me (Fox) - $10.58M, $3,584 PTA, $136.98M cume
9. Bedtime Stories (Disney) - $9.3M, $3,551 PTA, $108.2M cume
10. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $7.5M, $3,347 PTA, $104.52M cume
11. The Unborn (Rogue) - $7.92M, $3,357 PTA, $31.15M cume
12. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $5.59M, $9,605 PTA, $42.42M cume

It just kind of makes you sick that a movie like Paul Blart: Mall Cop is going to have such a massive opening weekend. American audiences are stupid.
"Young men make wars and the virtues of war are the virtues of young men: courage and hope for the future. Then old men make the peace, and the vices of peace are the vices of old men: mistrust and caution." -- Alec Guinness (Lawrence of Arabia)

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Postby rolotomasi99 » Mon Dec 29, 2008 5:37 pm

Franz Ferdinand wrote:I think Watchmen is getting over-estimated in terms of box office performance. Although one of the most respected graphic novels of all time, it doesn't have anything close to a household name (like Batman, Spidey, etc.), and although fanboys will power it to a big opening (I am being optimistic in predicting $45M), I don't think it has the crossover appeal needed to push it so high in final numbers. $300 is WAAY too high.

Don't get me wrong, I would die in ecstasy if it was as good as the trailers make it look, and a huge box office performance would be incredible, but I just don't see it being the massive crossover hit that many are predicting.

well, director zach snyder's previous film 300 defied everyone's expectations. it was a modestly budgeted film ($65 m) with no big stars and based on a comic book not many outside of the geek world knew about. however, the movie had one big thing going for it -- opening in march.

with very little competition at the multiplex, the film was able to open with $70 m (almost as much as SIN CITY made during its entire run). a big opening is not enough to get it past $200 m. TWILIGHT and QUANTUM OF SOLACE both had openings in the $70 m range, yet will finish with about $165 m each.

300 on the other hand faced very weak competition week after week, and eventually ended up with $210 m. it seems the execs at warner bros were smart enough to try to squeeze their movie into the clusterfuck of summer 2009. WATCHMEN opens on march 6th and faces no big competition until WOLVERINE comes out on may 1st.

as for big stars, i think the hype for this film is so big it does not matter about stars. unlike AVATAR which is a brand new creation, WATCHMEN has such across the board appeal for fanboys and outsiders alike (much like THE LORD OF THE RINGS series) that it will be able to pull people in. while the fight between warner bros and fox could threaten the perfect release date, i also think it is only getting people more excited. cnn felt the court decision on the case was important enough to feature prominently on their main page as opposed to being relegated to the entertainment section.

this film went from being just another fanboy fantasy to being taken quite seriously by the non-entertainment press much like THE DARK KNIGHT. if nothing messes up that march release date, i think the film will do quite well.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Mon Dec 29, 2008 5:13 pm

MovieWes wrote:Well, when Titanic came out, Kate and Leo weren't exactly the household names that they are now. There's talk going around that the star of Avatar, Sam Worthington, is going to be the Next Big Thing. It doesn't hurt that he's also starring in one of next summer's biggest action films, Terminator Salvation.

leo had become a tween girl heart throb the year before by starring in ROMEO & JULIET. as a typical gay boy in junior high, i had all girl friends. we all went to TITANIC on the opening weekend, and they competed with each other to see who had seen it the most in its long run in the theatres.

however, you are correct that TITANIC did not have a huge star. in the end though, TITANIC was a film every demographic could go to, from 10 year olds to 80 year olds. it had romance, epic storytelling, incredible disaster scenes and special effects. everyone went to see TITANIC, and you were the exception to the rule if you had not seen it.

AVATAR just strikes me as something so different from anything you can find in the top 50 all-time box office. then again, that is what was said about STAR WARS when it first came out. we will have to wait until the tail end of 2009 to find out how audiences respond to it.
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-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow

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Postby Franz Ferdinand » Mon Dec 29, 2008 4:49 pm

I think Watchmen is getting over-estimated in terms of box office performance. Although one of the most respected graphic novels of all time, it doesn't have anything close to a household name (like Batman, Spidey, etc.), and although fanboys will power it to a big opening (I am being optimistic in predicting $45M), I don't think it has the crossover appeal needed to push it so high in final numbers. $300 is WAAY too high.

Don't get me wrong, I would die in ecstasy if it was as good as the trailers make it look, and a huge box office performance would be incredible, but I just don't see it being the massive crossover hit that many are predicting.

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Postby MovieWes » Mon Dec 29, 2008 1:48 pm

Well, when Titanic came out, Kate and Leo weren't exactly the household names that they are now. There's talk going around that the star of Avatar, Sam Worthington, is going to be the Next Big Thing. It doesn't hurt that he's also starring in one of next summer's biggest action films, Terminator Salvation.
"Young men make wars and the virtues of war are the virtues of young men: courage and hope for the future. Then old men make the peace, and the vices of peace are the vices of old men: mistrust and caution." -- Alec Guinness (Lawrence of Arabia)

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Postby rolotomasi99 » Mon Dec 29, 2008 1:13 pm

MovieWes wrote:What's going to make Avatar huge is that it is going to be the mother of all IMAX 3-D movies. And with a budget of over $300 million, you know it's going to be huuuge. From what I've heard, it's the type of movie that, like Star Wars and Titanic, will lose a lot of its impact when it makes the leap to DVD.

i figure most studio execs would never dream of saying no to james cameron, but i am surprised they were willing to greenlight such a risky project with such a huge budget with absolutely no big stars with box office clout. even the most famous living director, steven spielberg, needs a leo dicaprio or tom hanks or tom cruise in his movies for extra box office security.
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-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow

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Postby MovieWes » Mon Dec 29, 2008 12:09 pm

What's going to make Avatar huge is that it is going to be the mother of all IMAX 3-D movies. And with a budget of over $300 million, you know it's going to be huuuge. From what I've heard, it's the type of movie that, like Star Wars and Titanic, will lose a lot of its impact when it makes the leap to DVD.
"Young men make wars and the virtues of war are the virtues of young men: courage and hope for the future. Then old men make the peace, and the vices of peace are the vices of old men: mistrust and caution." -- Alec Guinness (Lawrence of Arabia)

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Postby Zahveed » Sun Dec 28, 2008 4:57 pm

I don't know enough about the business to predict the actual numbers, so I'll just put them in order.


1. The Half-Blood Prince
2. Watchmen
3. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
4. Terminator Salvation
5. X Men Origins: Wolverine
6. Avatar
7. Angels and Demons
8. Disney's A Christmas Carol
9. Star Trek
10. Up
11. The Princess and the Frog
12. Ice Age 3
13. Funny People
14. Night at the Museum 2
15. 2012
16. GI Joe
17. The Fantastic Mr. Fox
18. Shutter Island
19. New Moon
20. Year One
21. Alvin and the Chipmunks 2
22. Monsters Vs. Aliens 3-D
23. Bruno
24. The Wolfman
25. Fast and Furious


Bomb of the Year: Dragonball Evolution
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Sun Dec 28, 2008 12:39 pm

Bog wrote:I'm going to go on record now and predict Avatar bombs like a champion

it is hard to say what AVATAR will do. if you look at the top 50 box office films of all time, of the many sci-fi films in that list only the star wars flicks are not set on earth. if you look at all the films in the top 50 not set on earth, there are only about a dozen.

for some reason, audiences prefer to watch movies set on their own planet, whether it be in the past (PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN), the present (INDEPENDENCE DAY), the future (THE MATRIX RELOADED), or an alternate version of earth (HARRY POTTER). films set on another planet or universe have a tougher time at the box office, though there certainly are some mighty big exceptions (THE LORD OF THE RINGS, STAR WARS, THE GRINCH, SHREK, et al).

this is what imdb has to say about AVATAR--
"In a distant future, humanity discovers the planet 'Alpha Centauri B-4', and for those scientists and astronauts who've traversed the gulf between neighboring suns and arrived on its alien soil know it as 'Pandora'. A wounded ex-marine, thrust unwillingly into an effort to settle and exploit an exotic planet rich in bio-diversity, must eventually cross over to lead the indigenous race in a battle for survival."

it sounds interesting, but also sounds way too different for most audiences. it also does not help that the film has no big stars. i love sigourney weaver as much as the next 'mo, but she can no longer be called a movie star with box office clout.

the only good thing going for AVATAR is a release date of december, away from the clusterfuck of summer.




Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1230486018
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-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow

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Postby Bog » Sun Dec 28, 2008 6:23 am

I'm going to go on record now and predict Avatar bombs like a champion

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Postby rolotomasi99 » Sat Dec 27, 2008 8:26 pm

1) The Half-Blood Prince -- $360
2) Transformers 2 -- $350
3) Watchmen -- $300
4) Wolverine -- $275
5) Terminator Salvation -- $250
6) Up -- $230
7) Angels & Demons -- $210
8) Avatar -- $200
9) Star Trek -- $180

*$150-$175*
Alvin And The Chipmunks
GI Joe
Ice Age 3
New Moon

*$125-$150*
Funny People
Land Of The Lost
Monsters vs Aliens
Night At The Museum 2
The Princess And The Frog

*$100-$125 range*
2012
Bruno
Fast And Furious
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
I Love You Man
Julia & Julia
Nowhereland
Pink Panther 2
Public Enemies
Sherlock Holmes
Shutter Island
The Wolfman
Where The Wild Things Are
The Year One




Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1230428475
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow

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Postby MovieWes » Sat Dec 27, 2008 12:52 pm

My first 2009 box-office predix...

01. Avatar- $450-500 million
02. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen- $350-375 million
03. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince- $295-320 million
04. Watchmen- $280-300 million
05. G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra- $260-280 million (why not?)
06. X-Men Origins: Wolverine- $240-260 million
07. Up- $235-250 million
08. Angels & Demons- $200-210 million
09. Terminator 4: Salvation- $190-210 million
10. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs- $190-205 million
11. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel- $175-200 million
12. New Moon- $170-200 million
13. Disney's A Christmas Carol- $165-180 million
14. Star Trek- $160-180 million
15. Funny People- $145-150 million
16. Shutter Island- $125-140 million
17. Public Enemies- $125-135 million
18. Fast & Furious- $120-135 million
19. Monsters vs. Aliens- $120-135 million
20. Year One- $115-125 million
21. Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian- $110-120 million
22. 2012- $105-115 million




Edited By MovieWes on 1231370861
"Young men make wars and the virtues of war are the virtues of young men: courage and hope for the future. Then old men make the peace, and the vices of peace are the vices of old men: mistrust and caution." -- Alec Guinness (Lawrence of Arabia)


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