Box Office Predix - What will be the blockbusters of 08?

matthew
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Postby matthew » Mon Jul 28, 2008 9:26 pm

Gone With the Wind had over 40 years when the only way to see it was in the cinema. That's a hell of a long time to build up ticket sales.

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Postby Zahveed » Mon Jul 28, 2008 7:08 pm

Then what makes a movie a top grosser. What kind of movie needs to be made that appeals to everyone?
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Postby MovieWes » Mon Jul 28, 2008 6:02 pm

Another factor that should be taken into account re: 'Gone with the Wind' is that the population of the United States wasn't nearly as large as it is now, in 1997, or even 1977. That means that it got a lot more repeat business than either Star Wars or Titanic ever did. But then again, television, the Internet, and home video didn't exist either.

I honestly don't think that The Dark Knight is going to rival Titanic as the highest grossing movie of all-time, though. Highest grossing films of all-time are almost as rare as $400 million films. Throughout history, only a handful of movies have ever been the all-time highest grosser at one point or another: The Birth of a Nation (1915), The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (1921), Snow White and the Seven Dwarves (1937), Gone with the Wind (1939), The Exorcist (1973), Jaws (1975), Star Wars (twice, 1977 and briefly in 1997), E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial (1982), and Titanic (1997). Not even a technological breakthrough such as the advent of talking pictures could propell The Jazz Singer to the top!




Edited By MovieWes on 1217286912
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Postby OscarGuy » Mon Jul 28, 2008 9:18 am

According to boxofficemojo, Ticket prices this year average $7.08. 2004 was $6.21.

Strictly based on second weekend gross:

Shrek 2: $72,170,363 (11,621,636.55 admissions)
Shrek 2 in 2008 dollars: $82,281,186.8

The Dark Knight: $75,630,000 estimated for the second weekend.

And Matthew, I think you've hit the nail on the head regarding how much I hate using monetary figures to determine records. There's a reason Gone With the Wind is still the number one film of all time based on inflated dollars...heck, there are 5 films that top Titanic based on inflation: Star Wars, Sound of Music, E.T. and The Ten Commandments are the others.
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Postby matthew » Mon Jul 28, 2008 7:50 am

My point is if tickets cost the same amount back in 2004 (or whenever Shrek 2 came out) as they do now, would it have made more than TDK? My hunch is it probably would have.

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Postby Sabin » Mon Jul 28, 2008 6:43 am

You're correct about 2nd Weekend...only $3 mil in difference between 'Shrek 2' and 'The Dark Knight'...

FASTED TO $300 MIL...
1. 'The Dark Knight' - 10 Days
2. 'Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest' - 16 Days

BEST NINTH DAY
1. 'The Dark Knight' - $289
2. 'Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest' - $239
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Postby matthew » Sun Jul 27, 2008 10:20 pm

I'd like to see how many tickets were sold in Shrek 2's second weekend compared to TDK. I'm not saying that it would necesarily be more, but I think it would be interesting to know. Afterall, TDK only made about 3 million more over the period.

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Postby Sabin » Sun Jul 27, 2008 9:42 pm

still almost all of 'em.
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Postby matthew » Sun Jul 27, 2008 8:34 pm

C'mon people...it's a great box office figure but it's not THAT great. Take into account inflation, and then tell me what records TDK is actually breaking...

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Postby Sabin » Sun Jul 27, 2008 3:43 pm

By the end of the day, 'The Dark Knight' will stand as the biggest movie of the year. Success story of the year.

'Hancock' crosses $200 mil. Next week 'WALL-E' stands to do the same thing, putting it slightly ahead of 'Ratatouille' but still sadly behind 'Cars'.

Summer Estimates:
1. 'The Dark Knight' - slightly less than a billion dollars.
2. 'Iron Man' - less than $320
3. 'Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull' - less than $320
4. 'Hancock' - around $230
5. 'Kung Fu Panda' - around $215
6. 'WALL-E' - around $210

Smallest drop of the week again is 'Journey to the Center of the Earth 3D' hit $60 mil, recouping its budget if not P&A. It dropped 23.7% which means it's going to continue to make roughly the same amount for another month or so. 'Journey to the Center of the Earth 3D' is the sleeper hit of the summer.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Sun Jul 27, 2008 2:56 pm

unbelievable! $75 m on its second weekend, $314 m in 10 days! THE DARK KNIGHT is quite amazing.

hopefully THE X-FILES 2 bombing will spare us from anymore.

also impressive, BRIDESHEAD REVISITED had the second best per screen average, making $10,000 per its 33 screens. only THE DARK KNIGHT did better. not bad.
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Postby Precious Doll » Sun Jul 27, 2008 1:30 am

Fridays box office figures from Variety

'Dark Knight' soars over 'Brothers'
Fox's 'X-Files' sequel places fourth behind 'Mia'
By ANTHONY D'ALESSANDRO

'The Dark Knight'

Warner Bros.' "The Dark Knight" continued to dominate the box office in its second Friday, taking in $23.1 million from 4,366 theaters and propelling its domestic cume toward $300 million.

Repping a 66% decline from its opening day, the current B.O. for the Christopher Nolan-directed superhero pic currently stands at $261.7 million. By Sunday, it's possible that "Dark Knight" might break the record for a pic's second weekend take. Among the highest grossing sophomore frames, DreamWorks' "Shrek 2" holds the title with $72.2 million.

In second place yesterday, Sony's R-rated laffer "Step Brothers" headlining Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly reaped $11.7 million from 3,094 venues. The pic's first day ranks as the second best among Ferrell's collaboration with producer-helmer Adam McKay, ranking behind the first Friday of 2006's "Talladega Nights" ($18.1 million) and ahead of 2004's "Anchorman" ($10.8 million).

Universal's "Mamma Mia!" took a 44% dip from its opening a week ago, ringing up $5.5 million off 2,990 for third place. Its eight-day cume currently stands at $50.3 million.

"Dark Knight's" continuing success stole some male action away from Fox's weekend entry "The X-Files: I Want to Believe" which placed fourth yesterday with $4 million from 3,185. While the long-awaited follow-up to the 1998 pic "X-Files: Fight the Future" performed at the lower end of expectations, pic cost under $30 million to produce, minimizing the studio's risk.

"Fight the Future" carried a production budget of $66 million and boasted an opening day of $12.2 million and a three-day take of $30.1 million.

The New Line 3-D feature "Journey to the Center of the Earth" distributed by Warner Bros. clocked in fifth with $2.7 million from 2,688, a 25% decline, bringing its 15-day cume to $53.5 million.
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Postby Franz Ferdinand » Sat Jul 26, 2008 2:55 am

I predict it falls a respectable 53% to $83.9M and winds up with $322M by Monday morning. I just saw it at a different theater: 1 1/2 hour lineup, completely sold out.

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Postby MovieWes » Fri Jul 25, 2008 3:15 pm

MovieWes wrote:And how well is it going to do during the weekdays? Some experts are predicting $20 million + everyday this week. I'm not sure that will happen, but that would be insane if it did. That's an additional $80 million + by Friday (which would put it at between $235-240 million going into it's second weekend). By Monday next week it could be over $300 million!

Wow... it actually happened. It's going into its second weekend at $238.6 million. Now let's just see if it goes over $300 million on Monday.

In fact, I'm going to be so bold as to predict that it's the highest grossing film of the year by Sunday morning.
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Postby Franz Ferdinand » Fri Jul 25, 2008 12:59 pm

I still say Dark Knight has a legitimate shot at a second $100M weekend. Its drops during the week were miniscule (especially when dealing with such huge numbers) and I know many showings for Friday and Saturday night at my theater are already sold out, especially IMAX. Nevertheless, Shrek 2's second-weekend record will have to enjoy itself for these last couple of days.


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