Box Office Predix - What will be the blockbusters of 08?

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Postby MovieWes » Fri Jul 25, 2008 12:26 pm

Largest DOMESTIC Totals – After Day 7

1) The Dark Knight - $238,615,211 (Thu - $16,464,405)
2) Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - $196,019,502 (Thu - $12,358,033)
3) Spiderman 3 - $192,085,360 (Tue - $12,012,472)
4) Star Wars: Episode III- Revenge of the Sith - $191,363,169 (Wed - $8,652,951)
5) Spiderman 2 - $182,070,572 (Thu - $5,908,618)
6) Pirates Of The Caribbean: At World's End - $173,339,068 (Thu - $6,102,449)
7) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - $165,603,944 (Wed - $6,040,893)
8) Transformers - $165,333,052 (Mon - $9,927,640)
9) Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix - $159,300,110 (Tue - $9,169,473)
10) The Matrix Reloaded - $158,242,565 (Wed - $6,323,052)

11) Spiderman - $151,622,504 (Thu - $7,466,380)
12) Shrek The Third - $150,338,458 (Thu - $5,859,631)
13) Lord Of The Rings: Return of the King - $150,139,984 (Tue - $12,476,242)
14) Shrek 2 - $148,518,679 (Tue - $8,023,299)
15) Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - $146,283,069 (Thu - $12,409,162)
16) The Passion Of The Christ - $144,600,923 (Tue - $9,283,076)
17) X-Men: The Last Stand - $141,331,162 (Thu - $5,375,353)
18) Star Wars: Episode II- Attack of the Clones - $134,869,203 (Wed - $6,536,835)
19) Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone - $129,490,758 (Thu - $12,258,000)
20) Iron Man - $126,634,395 (Thu - $5,328,031)

21) Star Wars: Episode I- The Phantom Menace - $124,723,784 (Tue - $8,181,275)
22) Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers - $123,346,204 (Tue - $7,790,050)
23) Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban - $123,064,649 (Thu - $6,823,073)
24) War Of The Worlds - $121,197,381 (Tue - $8,453,028)
25) Hancock - $119,782,276 (Tue - $7,423,215)
26) Independence Day - $112,075,619 (Tue - $7,747,986)
27) Austin Powers in Goldmember - $110,559,220 (Thu - $6,924,759)
28) Superman Returns - $108,091,711 (Tue - $10,510,117)
29) X2: X-Men United - $107,644,861 (Thu - $4,602,146)
30) The Lost World: Jurassic Park - $107,427,944 (Thu - $4,412,945)




Edited By MovieWes on 1217016684
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Jul 25, 2008 12:01 pm

Zahveed wrote:Call me a dumb straight guy, I guess; I want to see Tropic Thunder and Pineapple Express.

hell, even a dumb gay guy like me wants to see PINEAPPLE EXPRESS. the trailer looks hilarious, but the question is whether they can maintain the funny for two hours. that was my big worry about SUPERBAD. the trailer looked great, but how funny could the entire film be was what i wondered. i know many here disagree, but i thought SUPERBAD was genius. the fact that those same writers came up with PINEAPPLE EXPRESS is good enough for me.




Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1217005358
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Postby Zahveed » Fri Jul 25, 2008 11:39 am

Sabin wrote:Tom Cruise has a brief, hysterical role as a bald, fat exec and it's some of his best work ever.

That's not saying much though.



Call me a dumb straight guy, I guess; I want to see Tropic Thunder and Pineapple Express.
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Postby Sabin » Fri Jul 25, 2008 11:33 am

Never saw ['Night at the Museum'].

I remember when Ben Stiller used to be a genius. A motherfucking genius. 'The Ben Stiller Show' still is one of the pinnacles of comedic variety programming and I have a lot of affection for 'Zoolander'. I want to see that Stiller return and 'Tropic Thunder' looks like the closest proximity.

I'm probably low-balling it with $110 mil. $150 - $175 mil seems more likely. But 'Step Brothers' and 'Pineapple Express' are going to cut into it big time.

QUICK: a buddy of mine saw 'Tropic Thunder' yesterday evening and said it was great, that Downey Jr. is fantastic, that it's the most star-studded film in ages, and that Tom Cruise has a brief, hysterical role as a bald, fat exec and it's some of his best work ever.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Jul 25, 2008 9:30 am

Sabin wrote:
after NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM made $250 m (the second highest grossing film of 2006) i learned to never underestimate the appeal of ben stiller.

Never underestimate the power of retarded children over Christmas. 'Tropic Thunder' has a more limited audience and high production costs. 'Night at the Museum' is something sadly ANYBODY could have been dragged to.

is that a touch of defensive resentment i detect sabin? were you dragged to NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM? it is alright, we do not judge you. we are here for you if you need to talk about your traumitizing experience.

i only "saw" about 20 minutes of the film. my roommate was watching it in the living room while i was making dinner in the kitchen. how anyone could have sat through all six hours of that movie (or however long it is) is beyond me. plus, ben stiller has a face for radio. why anyone would want to see it on the big screen is also baffling.

TROPIC THUNDER though looks like a gold mine. you have a mix of frat boy comedy and ridiculous action scenes. you have ben stiller, jack black, robert downey as a white man playing black, and a slew of cameos (tom cruise in a fat suit). yeah, this film is going to be huge. all those dumb straight boys that made WEDDING CRASHERS a $209 million hit...what, you think they all suddenly grew brains and no longer like dumb moives?
the trailer alone has 4.5 million views!
youtube.com/watch?v=4pxOzSpUXtg

believe me, i hope i am wrong, but if YOU DON'T MESS WITH THE ZOHAN can make more than $100 m, than TROPIC THUNDER can make more than $200 m. that is just the world we live in.




Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1216996808
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
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Postby Sabin » Fri Jul 25, 2008 2:04 am

after NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM made $250 m (the second highest grossing film of 2006) i learned to never underestimate the appeal of ben stiller.

Never underestimate the power of retarded children over Christmas. 'Tropic Thunder' has a more limited audience and high production costs. 'Night at the Museum' is something sadly ANYBODY could have been dragged to.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Postby rolotomasi99 » Thu Jul 24, 2008 10:29 pm

Zahveed wrote:
rolotomasi99 wrote:MADAGASCAR 2 -- $205

I really hope not...

i wish it were not possible, but if crap like ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS can make $217 m, and the first MADAGASCAR made $193 m, then this one has every reason to make somewhere in the same ballpark. if we are lucky, it will stay south of $200 m.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Thu Jul 24, 2008 10:25 pm

Sabin wrote:I don't think 'Tropic Thunder' will cross $110ish, the kind of take that really doesn't qualify such expenditures.

I think the 'Harry Potter' franchise guarantees $250ish, not $300 mil anymore.

after NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM made $250 m (the second highest grossing film of 2006) i learned to never underestimate the appeal of ben stiller. sure even he cannot save crap like THE HEARTBREAKER, but in frat boy comedies like DODGEBALL ($114 m) and MEET THE FOCKERS ($279 m) he is king. i sure hope TROPIC THUNDER is a bomb, but i do not have that much faith in straight people's comedic taste.

as for THE HALF-BLOOD PRINCE, the last two harry potter films made $290 m and $292 m. why would this film make considerably less? it has absolutely no competition the rest of the year. what are people going to see instead if they are not going to THE HALF-BLOOD PRINCE?
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Postby Zahveed » Thu Jul 24, 2008 9:29 pm

rolotomasi99 wrote:MADAGASCAR 2 -- $205

I really hope not...
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Postby Sabin » Thu Jul 24, 2008 4:49 pm

I don't think 'Tropic Thunder' will cross $110ish, the kind of take that really doesn't qualify such expenditures.

I think the 'Harry Potter' franchise guarantees $250ish, not $300 mil anymore.
"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

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Postby rolotomasi99 » Thu Jul 24, 2008 3:06 pm

with THE DARK KNIGHT's amazing success and possible $500 m tally, we also have the possibility of another milestone: the box-office passing $10 billion.
i thought it would have happened last year, but the three-quels kinda screwed each other over. in 2007 four films made more than $300 m, and the box office had its best take ever with $9.6 billion.
so far, the grand total is up to $5 b, and the year is only half way finished.

we can assume THE DARK KNIGHT will make $500 m.
IRON MAN, THE KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL, and (probably) THE HALF-BLOOD PRINCE will make $300.
HANCOCK, WALL-E, KUNG FU PANDA, and (possibly) TROPIC THUNDER, QUANTAM OF SOLACE, and MADAGASCAR 2 will make $200 m.
6 films so far have made $100 m, with around 10 additional films released this year probably joining the $100 m crowd.

if the top ten looks something like this...
THE DARK KNIGHT -- $505
IRON MAN -- $320
THE KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL -- $318
THE HALF-BLOOD PRINCE -- $315
TROPIC THUNDER -- $230
HANCOCK -- $220
KUNG FU PANDA -- $215
WALL-E -- $210
MADAGASCAR 2 -- $205
QUANTAM OF SOLACE -- $200
THE MUMMY 3 -- $185

...we can expect the $10 b mark to be passed.




Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1216930027
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Thu Jul 24, 2008 11:51 am

another example of very poor release scheduling. three raunchy frat boy comedies in a row, rather than spacing them out. TROPIC THUNDER will definitely do the best of those three. STEP-BROTHERS might do better than THE X-FILES 2, but then all of its audience will go running to THE PINEAPPLE EXPRESS, which will then lose all of its audience to TROPIC THUNDER. very short sighted on the part of the studios. i know technically they are in competition with each other, but would it not benefit everyone for them to actually communicate about which movies they are releasing when?
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Postby Franz Ferdinand » Thu Jul 24, 2008 11:14 am

I highly doubt X-Files will make even $20M - this ship has clearly sailed. Where I am, media exposure is very slight for the movie, reviews have been less than kind, and it has been a full decade since the last movie, with no action in the interim. Step Brothers will be the runner-up this weekend, though X-Files does indeed stand to benefit from the Ferrell movie's R rating and DK overflow.

Why there is a third Mummy puzzles me, and I would love to see it flop, though it has a realistic chance of dethroning DK, even for a weekend.

Pineapple Express is going to be a hit (it has had the same sort of acclaim for an actor's performance, though of course nowhere near Ledger's level), but I found the trailers to be less funny than I had hoped for.

Tropic Thunder seems destined to be this year's leftfield hit, but after that its smooth sailing for DK. From right here, Batman seems impervious to any challenges and will continue its merry-making for the forseeable future.

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Postby rolotomasi99 » Thu Jul 24, 2008 10:41 am

entertainment weekly wrote an article breaking down the reasons for THE DARK KNIGHT's success much the way we are:
http://www.ew.com/ew/article/0,,20213067_20213068_20214587,00.html

not since THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST has a film's success been so scrutinized. why should people be so surprised?

as the article mentions, this film truly is all inclusive. almost as many women went to see it as men, and just as many people over 25 as under 25 were in the audience. compare that to MAMMA MIA, whose audience was 75% female (and the rest gay men), and whose audience skewed older.

this movie is not going to rely on multiple viewings from fanboys alone. amazingly, this movie is being completely embraced as both a summer action film and an adult-friendly prestige film along the lines of THE GODFATHER (not in quality, just appeal). just like TITANIC, this film is appealing to everyone except the most discerning tastes, the kind of people who never watch hollywood films anyways.

pity THE X-FILES 2. it does not stand a chance. only the fanboys over 40 will probably go to see it, while all the fanboys in their 20s and 30s will be seeing THE DARK KNIGHT for the third or fourth time. THE DARK KNIGHT will probably take in $75-80 m over the weekend, while THE X-FILES 2 will make around $30 m. like MAMMA MIA, the film will probably benefit from THE DARK KNIGHT overflow.

THE MUMMY 3 will probably be able to dethrone THE DARK KNIGHT, but just barely. THE DARK KNIGHT will ease to $35 m, while THE MUMMY 3 earns about $45 m.
the next weekend though, THE DARK KNIGHT could easily make it back to the top spot against THE PINEAPPLE EXPRESS. by this time (only its fourth weekend) it will have passed $400 m, and it will still be chugging along.
i think TROPIC THUNDER is going to be a huge hit and will steal some of THE DARK KNIGHT's, well, thunder, but the film's restriced rating will keep the younger crowds away, leading them back to THE DARK KNIGHT.

eventually, i think it will settle somewhere just slightly north of the $500 m mark. TITANIC is still safe for now, but george lucas will probably not be happy to have the second place spot taken from him.




Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1216914306
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-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow

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Postby MovieWes » Thu Jul 24, 2008 9:18 am

Titanic wasn't just a hit with gay men/women. It was a hit with everyone. It had something for everyone. Action for the action buffs, big special effects for the teens and mainstream moviegoers, romance and fancy costumes for the women/gay men. Teenage girls went multiple times because Leonardo DiCaprio was *the* big heartthrob at the time. It was also old-fashioned enough to go over well with the over-65 crowd. And then all the Academy Awards buzz brought out all the cineastes. And I haven't even mentioned the fact that, like Star Wars and Jurassic Park before it, it was an experience unlike anything anyone had ever seen before. It was a movie that appealed, quite literally, to every single demographic (except maybe certain ethnic minorites, but I'm sure they went anyway because they belonged to one or another demographic as well).

The Dark Knight is a success for completely different reasons and, I think, will get a lot of repeat business. I've never seen a movie with this much demand since ... ever. At least not since the first Spider-Man, and even then The Dark Knight is performing on a much higher level. Even Titanic at the peak of it's box-office performance never reached higher than $33 million (which was in its second weekend). After that, it averaged about $25 million a week for the next 13 weeks, dropping between 1-3% every week. Most people would think that a picture like The Dark Knight, with almost $300 million in the bank after 10 days, will be extremely frontloaded, but that doesn't seem to be the case. People want to see this movie again and again and again. And it's not just the fanboys, it's the mainstream filmgoer in general. The word-of-mouth buzz on this film is unbelievable and could propell it into a My Big Fat Greek Wedding kind of box-office dominance which, on top of everything else, could push it close to $500 million.

And if a so-so movie like Shrek 2 can get close to $500 million (adjusted for inflation, that is), then The Dark Knight can certainly do it.




Edited By MovieWes on 1216909180
"Young men make wars and the virtues of war are the virtues of young men: courage and hope for the future. Then old men make the peace, and the vices of peace are the vices of old men: mistrust and caution." -- Alec Guinness (Lawrence of Arabia)


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