Box Office Predix - What will be the blockbusters of 08?

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Zahveed
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Postby Zahveed » Thu Jul 24, 2008 8:05 am

If Mummy 3 does end up taking top spot that weekend, The Dark Knight will be second; then it will return to number one the following weekend - even if the gross isn't that high.
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Postby OscarGuy » Thu Jul 24, 2008 6:22 am

Competition doesn't matter as much as staying power. Titanic had so much repeat business it wasn't funny. It also had an uplifting, even if dramatic conclusion, which made it much like the sensation Gone With the Wind was at the time. I saw it at least 4 times in the theater alone (yes, I'm a Titanic fan), but I would never watch something like The Dark Knight that many times. And, another big difference is yeah, fanboys will do repeat business, but they make up a small percentage of the marketplace compared to gay men/women who made Titanic a success.

As for Mummy Returns, the reason people hated it was b/c it was the same old shit, like Scorpion King (which isn't even considered one of the Mummy movies). The difference here is a new, ancient Chinese concept. Most of my friends are excited to see it because of that amazing difference from the first films. I think it will still be a success.
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Postby MovieWes » Thu Jul 24, 2008 1:05 am

If it beats The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor, I can see this film being #1 at the box-office for many weeks to come. (Do audiences even want to see a new Mummy film? The Mummy Returns was a movie that everyone saw and nobody liked. One year later, nobody gave a shit about The Scorpion King. Will audiences give a shit 6 years later?)

I mean, look at Titanic back in 1997-98. It opened in December against Tomorrow Never Dies. The following weekend the final box-office hit for the remainder of the next few months was released (As Good as it Gets) and after that it was smooth sailing for Titanic until the first weekend in April, when Lost in Space was released. The box-office landscape right now is similar, with nothing but The Mummy sequel and a few comedies like The Pineapple Express and Tropic Thunder coming out in August. Then we have a whole season of nothing at all except Body of Lies, High School Musical 3, and Saw V in October. I can see people going to see this all the way through middle of Fall.




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Postby Franz Ferdinand » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:19 pm

Not to mention that is has already broken the opening week record - with two days left to go! Being a box office nut has never been better!

Who wants to be the crazy one and wager that Dark Knight will make another $100M this coming weekend? I know, it is a ludicrous notion....but is it really? This box office performance is completely unprecedented, and the way Dark Knight keeps raking it in (making $45 million on a Monday/Tuesday AFTER a $158M weekend is astounding), demand has clearly not been met. 15% drops today and Thursday, followed by another huge weekend (the multiplex I frequently attend, a 10-screen behemoth that has the highest traffic in a city of 1 million, is nearly sold out for Friday and Saturday night) means the sky is the limit.

What upcoming movie is really going to stop the Dark Knight? The Mummy, seriously? This movie is a juggernaut that will demolish everything in its path.

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Postby rolotomasi99 » Wed Jul 23, 2008 9:43 am

Franz Ferdinand wrote:I predict with the massive up-front demand pushing the movie close to $300M by the end of its second weekend, and continued repeat viewings during the upcoming lazy days, the Dark Knight will flirt with the unprecedented $500M mark before the end of its run.


as of tuesday, THE DARK KNIGHT has made $203,773,518. unfuckingbelievable!

when PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 2 made so much money right out of the gate, some were predicting it would usurp TITANIC's place as the highest grossing film ever. i knew this was bullshit. no film is going to pass TITANIC for a very long time. i knew PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 2 was not even going to be able to pass $500 m.
THE DARK KNIGHT, though, may very well be able to pass $500 m; but it will still not be able to threaten TITANIC's reign.

it took two days to pass $100 m, along with SPIDER-MAN 3 and PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 2.
it took five days to pass $200 m, with the previous record being eight days.
i am predicting it will pass $300 m by the end of only its second weekend (roughly 10 days), with the previous record sixteen days.
i think it will continue to astonish by passing $400 m before its fourth weekend of release (roughly 28 days).
if the movie does pass $500 m, which now looks very likely, it will probably do it in the same amount of days (between 60 and 70) other films took to reach $400 m.
i also think it will be able to break the $1 billion mark worldwide, joining only three other films which have done so.

the best part of all, here is a movie that actually deserves to make this much money. hopefully we will see more blockbusters of this caliber in the future. the dumb films will still be there, but hopefully a few smart ones will make it through as well.




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Postby Franz Ferdinand » Wed Jul 23, 2008 9:08 am

Dark Knight mania still seems to be at fever pitch, and it can easily rack up another $75M during the first week.

I predict with the massive up-front demand pushing the movie close to $300M by the end of its second weekend, and continued repeat viewings (a friend of mine will be seeing it for the fourth time this Friday) during the upcoming lazy days, the Dark Knight will flirt with the unprecedented $500M mark before the end of its run.

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Postby Zahveed » Tue Jul 22, 2008 3:03 pm

The Dark Knight Adds $24.5M on Monday
Source: Box Office Mojo July 22, 2008


Warner Bros. Pictures' The Dark Knight added another $24.5 million on Monday from 4,366 theaters to bring its domestic total to $182.9 million after just four days.

It marks the fourth-highest Monday of all-time, trailing just Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End ($25.1 million), Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull ($26.8 million) and Spider-Man 2 ($27.7 million).

The fastest a movie has hit the $200 million is eight days, and it looks like The Dark Knight will do it in five days, or at the most six days depending on Tuesday's box office result.

Made for about $185 million, Christopher Nolan's Batman Begins follow-up has earned $224.2 million worldwide so far.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Tue Jul 22, 2008 10:13 am

MovieWes wrote:And how well is it going to do during the weekdays? Some experts are predicting $20 million + everyday this week. I'm not sure that will happen, but that would be insane if it did. That's an additional $80 million + by Friday (which would put it at between $235-240 million going into it's second weekend). By Monday next week it could be over $300 million!

especially since this weekend's competition is X-FILES 2 and STEPBROTHERS. not until the weekend after that do we see any real competition with THE MUMMY 3. after the MUMMY 3 is pretty much nothing except TROPIC THUNDER. the next few weeks are pretty barren in terms of large films.

which brings me to another issue. what the hell happened this year? i know release dates are planned a year or sometimes two years in advance, even before the film has started filming. however, this seemed to be one of the worst years in terms of release dates.
many big films which should have had bigger openings and better overall grosses were really screwed because of the clusterfuck of movies released this summer.

no matter how bad the reviews or the word of mouth were, if films like SPEED RACER, PRINCE CASPIAN, or HELLBOY 2 had been released during any other time of the year they would have probably made twice as much money as they ended up with.
the first four months of the year saw only 1 film making more than $100 m., while last year had 4 films making more than $100 m. megahit 300 was released in march and made $210 m and was in the top ten of the year. if it had been released in the middle of summer and had to contend with all the three-quels it probably would have made half as much money.
the only reason stupid and lighweight films like VANTAGE POINT or 21 were able to become surprise hits was because there was absolutely nothing interesting at the box office.

even worse is this fall. once summer ends around labor day, there are absolutely no blockbuster films opening until the first weekend of november when both MADAGASCAR 2 and QUANTAM OF SOLACE open on the same day! then THE HALF-BLOOD PRINCE opens two weeks later.
september and october are almost completely free of any big films yet they feel the need to open two big sequels on the same weekend, and then another huge sequel two weeks later. while MADAGASCAR 2 and QUANTAM OF SOLACE may not be going for the exact same audiences, THE HALF-BLOOD PRINCE will be going for audiences from all demographics. this will leave the other two films out of luck, when it seems either one could have done better opening in the barren months of september or october.

i know it is kind of crying over spilt milk, but it still confounds me why studios go to so much trouble to craft such fun and expensive films like HELLBOY 2 and then release them between giants like HANCOCK and THE DARK KNIGHT. do they enjoy seeing the grosses drop by 70%? do they take pride in knowing their imaginative though not brilliant film will make less money than the unimaginative and ridiculously stupid JUMPER?
the most ubelievable part is how much the people who make these decisions earn. certainly more than most of the crew on the film who actually do their job correctly. what does one of these assholes have to do to get fired is my question. i hope who ever chose the release dates for SPEED RACER, PRINCE CASPIAN, and HELLBOY was thrown out on their asses. those films might not have been brilliant, but they certainly deserved a better shot at success than they were given.




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Postby Zahveed » Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:27 pm

MovieWes wrote:And how well is it going to do during the weekdays? Some experts are predicting $20 million + everyday this week. I'm not sure that will happen, but that would be insane if it did. That's an additional $80 million + by Friday (which would put it at between $235-240 million going into it's second weekend). By Monday next week it could be over $300 million!

Holy crack on a cracker!
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Postby MovieWes » Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:05 pm

And how well is it going to do during the weekdays? Some experts are predicting $20 million + everyday this week. I'm not sure that will happen, but that would be insane if it did. That's an additional $80 million + by Friday (which would put it at between $235-240 million going into it's second weekend). By Monday next week it could be over $300 million!



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Postby Zahveed » Mon Jul 21, 2008 4:03 pm

I think it'll fall 40%. I know a lot of people that still haven't seen it yet and there are plenty that will be seeing it a second time.
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Postby Franz Ferdinand » Mon Jul 21, 2008 3:53 pm

I guess they were a little off with their estimate.

The final official tally of The Dark Knight is $158,411,483

Any guesses for the second weekend fall-off? 60%? 70%? Even it falls by 50%, it will still end up with nearly $80M, beating the original Spider-Man's second weekend record of $72M. What a weekend!

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Postby Sabin » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:47 pm

...yeah...it turns out that the question of the summer wasn't Batman vs. Indy. It was Batman vs. Every Summer Movie This Decade.

In other news:
* 'Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull' is within one million dollars of 'Iron Man' which means Indy will finish with three twenty at best and 'Iron Man' will eke out three and a quarter.
* 'WALL-E' stands the compete against 'Ratatouille' for this outlandish title of "$200 mil Sleeper".
* 'Hellboy 2''s 70% drop off was totally anticipated as its entire audience was in a different movie. What's interesting to me is 'Journey to the Center of the Earth 3D' suffered no competition from 'Space Chimps' and is relatively unchallenged for weeks to come making it the WTF? sleeper of the year.
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Postby MovieWes » Sun Jul 20, 2008 11:26 am

The opening weekend estimate is $155.34 million. A new opening weekend record is set.

And, FYI, The Dark Knight is the fourth Batman film to set the opening weekend record. Batman, Batman Returns, and Batman Forever all set the opening weekend records when they came out.

From CNN.com

'Dark Knight' sets opening weekend box office record

LOS ANGELES, California (AP) -- A Warner Bros. executive says the Batman sequel "The Dark Knight" has taken in $155.34 million to top "Spider-Man 3" for best opening weekend ever at the box office.

The figures released Sunday show "The Dark Knight" more than $4 million ahead of the $151.1 million first weekend for "Spider-Man 3" in May 2007.

Studio distribution chief Dan Fellman says "The Dark Knight" also broke the "Spider-Man 3" record for best debut in IMAX large-screen theaters with $6.2 million. "Spider-Man 3" opened with $4.7 million in IMAX cinemas.

Stoked by fan fever over the manic performance of the late Heath Ledger as the Joker, "The Dark Knight" also set a one-day box office record with $66.4 million on opening day, Fellman said Saturday.

The movie's Friday haul surpassed the previous record of $59.8 million set last year by "Spider-Man 3." iReport.com: Did you see 'Dark Knight'?

"The Dark Knight" began with a record $18.5 million from midnight screenings, topping the previous high of $16.9 million for "Star Wars: Episode III -- The Revenge of the Sith."

The opening day grosses for "The Dark Knight" far exceeded the full weekend haul of its predecessor, "Batman Begins," which took in $48.7 million in its first three days in 2005.

Reviews were excellent for director Christopher Nolan's "Batman Begins," but they were stellar for his "Dark Knight."

"We've really never seen anything like this," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box-office tracker Media By Numbers. "The death of a fine actor taken in his prime, a legendary performance and a movie that lives up to all the hype. That all combined to create these record-breaking numbers."

Buzz had been high for the Batman sequel well before Ledger died of an accidental prescription-drug overdose in January. Trailers last fall revealing Ledger's demented Joker, with crooked clown makeup, turned up the heat even more. The critical acclaim over his performance that built from advance screenings left fans in a frenzy.

"It's a combination of things. Certainly, that's a great part of it, but I think this movie's gross was partly because of the reviews it received and the incredible buzz and word of mouth that preceded it with our early screenings," Fellman said. "And the success and quality of the last one, 'Batman Begins,' delivered by Chris Nolan just set the tone for the opening of this movie."

"The Dark Knight" reunites Christian Bale as Batman, the vigilante crime-fighter tormented by personal tragedy, and co-stars Michael Caine, Morgan Freeman, Maggie Gyllenhaal and Gary Oldman.

The film spins an epic crime duel as Ledger's Joker orchestrates a reign of terror on the city of Gotham aimed to spread chaos and break down the restraint that keeps Batman on the right side of the law.

Although critics are taking the film seriously enough to suggest that Ledger could be in line for an Academy Award nomination, the action-packed movie also delivers as pure summer movie escapism.

"If you're worried about mortgage payments and gas prices, when you're sitting in 'The Dark Knight' for two and a half hours, you're not thinking about any of that stuff," Dergarabedian said.




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Postby MovieWes » Sat Jul 19, 2008 9:31 am

The word is out... the early estimates on The Dark Knight is that it raked in $66 million on opening day, beating Spider-Man 3's opening day record of $59.8 million. If the number holds up, this could gross over $170 million this weekend.



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