Box Office Predix - What will be the blockbusters of 08?

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rolotomasi99
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Thu Jul 10, 2008 1:58 pm

i agree with your analysis franz. especially when you consider how the first BATMAN (which was pretty dark for a huge blockbuster comic-book film) took in $251 million while BATMAN RETURNS (which gave me fucking nightmares when i was a kid and i actually consider the original THE GODFATHER 2 of comic book films) took in $162 m.

however, the buzz for this film has proven it is no ordinary summer blockbuster and/or comic book film. BATMAN BEGINS had to fight off some of the worst bad press and ill-feelings any movie ever faced because of BATMAN AND ROBIN. it still surprises me the film made only $205 m (WEDDING CRASHERS and CHARLIE AND THE CHOCOLATE FACTORY made more!). it should have made more for such a high quality action movie, but people felt burnt from the last film so they stayed away.

however, after seeing the film on dvd or tv, people realized how far the series had turned around. every move of the film has been tracked, and the fanboys almost exploded when even the first teasers were released (with nothing but the batman logo and some dialogue). then we all know what happened next. now the film was destined to pass into legend, no matter what its quality was.
the trailers and clips were have seen hint at something epic, and the reviews have confirmed this to be true throughout the film. the fanboys are busting down the doors to see this film and will not settle for the shaky cam crap they may usually prefer to watch on the internet. they will want to see this on the big screen, and they will want to see it many, many times. there will definitely be repeat viewings from them.

however, that will not be all that is pushing the grosses up on this film. i think this film will reach every demographic of movie goer, from the young kids who probably will be freaked out, to the teenagers and college crowd who just want action, to the adults who are curious to see what all the fuss is about, and even some movie snobs who might not feel guilty about seeing a comic book movie with this kind of pedigree.

i am convinced more than ever this will be the number one movie of the year, and could even pass the $400 million mark. it will be one of the few films to actually deserve its place in that club.

p.s. i just realized i use the word "however" quite a bit in my posts. i have never noticed it before. that is all.




Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1215717757
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Postby Franz Ferdinand » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:32 am

What might ultimately stop Dark Knight from reaching such lofty heights is the dark. Out of the top grosses from this decade, all but one (the snuff-quality Passion) are feel-good, action/comedy flicks with huge cross-over appeal. Granted, they each had their dark elements (a character dies, or a huge battle sequence, etc.), but not to the extent of the Dark Knight.

DK has a lot going for it: it is a sequel to a beloved franchise-rebooter; anticipation and preliminary word of mouth is as white-hot as you could wish for; early reviews are nothing short of rapturous; curio appeal thanks first to Ledger's death, then his Oscar-buzz performance (which was never in doubt from the moment the first teaser hit); and it seems to be the first comic book movie that might transcend the genre and become something much greater than a mere "comic book movie".

However, its box office potential could be stunted by how dark it looks. Family viewings can be crossed off right away (a major driving force for the top-grossing flick this decade), and repeat viewings seem questionable. It is one thing to rush out on the opening weekend to see a two-and-a-half hour crime opus; quite another to see it again and again in the weeks that follow.

I will say there has rarely been a movie that I've wanted so badly to outperform the loftiest expectations, because it looks genuinely amazing and because, terrific first movie as Batman Begins was, this looks exponentially better. I feel tempted to call this The Godfather II of "comic book movies" already.

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Postby Zahveed » Thu Jul 10, 2008 10:42 am

It is possible. Don't underestimate the power of comic book enthusiasts, Heath Ledger fans, casual movie-goers, and the fact that it's a sequel.
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Postby OscarGuy » Thu Jul 10, 2008 10:36 am

I don't think that will happen. The 1989 Batman has an adjusted gross of $433.1 M. And to top this decade's best adjusted grosses, it would have to topple: Shrek 2 ($488.8 M), Spider-Man ($478.1 M), PotC: Dead Man's Chest ($444.6 M), Return of the King ($423.4 M), Spider-Man 2 ($413.9 M), The Passion of the Christ ($410.8 M) and Star Wars: Episode 3 ($408.2 M). That's a lot of $400+ M films to pass.
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Postby Zahveed » Thu Jul 10, 2008 9:51 am

I predict The Dark Knight will be the biggest box office total this year, and probably the decade. I don't think it will reach Titanic numbers though due to its lack in universal appeal. It will definitely be the highest grossing Batman film even with inflation taken into consideration.
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Postby OscarGuy » Thu Jul 10, 2008 9:46 am

Well, it has become sadly evident that Crystal Skull is going to pass the far superior Iron Man at the box office. I'm guessing probably in the next three weeks it will happen. Then The Dark Knight and Harry Potter will be the only remaining films with a real shot at bringing it down.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Tue Jun 10, 2008 3:37 pm

OscarGuy wrote:Oops. Wow. I was doing it all at work, so I wasn't thinking about it, just doing it. Yeah. I multiplied by 40%, not 60%, that's entirely my bad. I still think it will pass $300, but just ignore my math for now...I just don't have time to redo everything.

no problem. we all make mistakes.

except, your mistake actually turned out to be quite prescient.

THE KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL eased 40% this weekedn and earned $13.5 million. if it continues on this track it will easily pass $300 m after all.

THE INCREDIBLE HULK made $54 m, which when considering 5 years of inflation is not as impressive as HULK's $62 m opening weekend. hopefully a third film is no already in the works.

i thought THE HAPPENING would make around $15 m, but instead the film doubled my prediction for $30 m. considering nearly half the films gross came from friday, obviously people wanted to be scared on the 13th.




Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1213625303
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Postby OscarGuy » Tue Jun 10, 2008 2:20 pm

Oops. Wow. I was doing it all at work, so I wasn't thinking about it, just doing it. Yeah. I multiplied by 40%, not 60%, that's entirely my bad. I still think it will pass $300, but just ignore my math for now...I just don't have time to redo everything.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Tue Jun 10, 2008 1:30 pm

OscarGuy wrote:Here's Indy's:

1: $100.1 M, cume: $125.2 M
2: $ 44.8 M, cume: $215.6 M, drop 55.3%
3: $ 22.8 M, cume: $253.0 M, drop 49.1%

Ok. So, it's faded faster than Ion Man. However, it's not dropping nearly as fast. Let's say that it drops 60% each of the next 3 weeks (much steeper than I think it will):

$13.7 M
$ 8.2 M
$ 4.9 M
Total: $26.8 M. That does put it at your $280M figure ($279.8 specifically).

wait...i could be totally wrong but those numbers do not seem correct.

if you have a $22.8 million weekend and the next weekend earns 60% less, i am pretty sure the number would be $9.12 m.

you multiple 22.8 by 0.6 and have 13.68, which is how you got $13.7 m for the next weekend; however, that would only be a 40% drop from the previous weekend. you have to subtract 13.68 from 22.8 which gives you 9.12 or $9 m for next weekend's take. this significantly reduces the remaining weekend numbers you calculated for the film.

i guess i owe my highschool math teacher an apology. i never thought lessons on caculating decimals would come in handy. then again, maybe i do not know what i am talking about and you are correct oscarguy. i honestly cannot be sure when it comes to math.
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Postby OscarGuy » Tue Jun 10, 2008 11:51 am

Rolo, here's the better way to take a look at numbers. Since we know fairly certainly that Iron Man is going to pass $300, here are its weekend numbers:

1: $98.6 M, cume: $102.1 M
2: $51.2 M, cume: $177.8 M, drop 48.1%
3: $31.8 M, cume: $223.1 M, drop 37.8%
4: $20.4 M, cume: $252.6 M, drop 35.8%
5: $13.5 M, cume: $276.2 M, drop 33.8%
6: $ 7.5 M, cume: $288.8 M, drop 44.8%

Here's Indy's:

1: $100.1 M, cume: $125.2 M
2: $ 44.8 M, cume: $215.6 M, drop 55.3%
3: $ 22.8 M, cume: $253.0 M, drop 49.1%

Ok. So, it's faded faster than Ion Man. However, it's not dropping nearly as fast. Let's say that it drops 60% each of the next 3 weeks (much steeper than I think it will):

$13.7 M
$ 8.2 M
$ 4.9 M
Total: $26.8 M. That does put it at your $280M figure ($279.8 specifically).

However, you are looking solely at weekend numbers when you should be including weekday numbers as well.

Week 1: $125.2 M, cume: $125.2 M
Week 2: $ 90.4 M, cume: $215.6 M, drop 72%
Week 3: $ 37.4 M, cume: $253.0 M, drop 41%

Now, let's estimate using the steep 60% drop figure:

Week 4: $22.4 M
Week 5: $13.5 M
Week 6: $ 8.0 M
Total: $43.9 M. That brings its total to $296.9 M. It's not going to stay 6 weeks only at the BO, so picking up an extra $3.1M won't be hard (at 60% per week drop rate, $4.8 M in the 7th week would more than secure that $300+ M finish.

Now, This may be much to our chagrin (it is after all inferior to the previous three incarnations of the series), but there's no denying it will finish north of $300, but probably not by very far.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Tue Jun 10, 2008 11:11 am

Greg wrote:
rolotomasi99 wrote:not only will THE KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL not break $300 million. . .

THE KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL -- $290

I find it odd that you're predicting The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull will make $290 million; but, you are sure it won't top $300 million. After all the difference between 290 and 300 is only 3 1/2 %.

well, considering i had to cheat my way through highschool math, i will not fight you too hard on this.

i was crunching the most basic numbers to come to my conclusion.

not counting thursday screenings, the flick made $100 its first weekend. it lost 55% of its audience the next weekend ($44 million), and then 49% of its audience the weekend after that ($22 m). even with THE INCREDIBLE HULK opening, i think this weekend will bring in 50% of last weekend, about $10 m. the 50% slide will continue ($5 m, $2.5 m, $1.25 m, $0.75 m, etc.).
if we are just counting what the film has left in terms of weekend grosses, i would say about $20 m; but with summer films they can often make almost as much during the week as they do on the weekends (about $15 m from monday june 2 to thursday june 5), which would help push it to about $290 m. i just think $300 m is beyond its reach even though it is the difference of only $10 m.
of course, all of this is based on the theory the film will only lose 50% of its audience each weekend.

greg seems to think i am underestimating indy's chances and sabin seems to think i am overestimating them, but i stick by my (very simplistic) system. i may not be the m.i.t. brats from the movie 21, but i do know how to cut by 50%, add to the current sum, and repeat.




Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1213114339
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Postby Sabin » Mon Jun 09, 2008 6:32 pm

The problem with 'Narnia' is that it's a Holiday film. 'Narnia' and 'Harry Potter' have no business opening in the summer.

'Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull' is a little bit in trouble because 'Hulk' takes a little bite out of its action and 'Kung Fu Panda' takes away the kids. It still made $22 million in its third weekend which is far from awesome but over the course of the week, it should top $260 and to think that there are $30 million more buyers out there is a bit silly.

The big issue is that its chances as the No. 1 movie of the summer are pretty much shot. Will it be 'Iron Man'? I'm really not sure if that's viable but I know that it's been performing very well and people want to keep going back to see it. Lesson? MAKE A GOOD FUCKING MOVIE!

Although it's unfriendly for children, I think the summer's No. 1 film might just end up being 'The Dark Knight' which has maintained a fever pitch of anticipation possibly surpassing 'Indy 4'.

'Kung Fu Panda' is unchallenged in the kid's markets until 'Wall-E' and should top $200 in a couple weeks.

'Zohan' might not break $100 despite its $40 million opening. 'Get Smart' and 'The Love Guru' (which are both themselves in trouble) will cut into it seriously.

'The Incredible Hulk' looks like this weekend's No. 1 although I wouldn't be surprised if 'Kung Fu Panda' appeals to more people. Usually June is big for movies but this year it looks more like July. I don't anticipate 'The Incredible Hulk' to do very well all things considered.

'The Happening' is dead in the water.

rolo, I have to ask: what evil did 'Cars' really do? It's their second highest grossing film, a multiple Oscar nominee, and although it's nobody's favorite PIXAR movie it got very respectable reviews? 'Ratatouille''s triumph was that it's a sublimely weird movie that did great numbers despite being not entirely kiddy and taking place in France. PIXAR has never been in trouble and 'Wall-E' doesn't look to break their trend of non-stop successes.
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Postby Greg » Mon Jun 09, 2008 5:21 pm

rolotomasi99 wrote:not only will THE KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL not break $300 million. . .

THE KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL -- $290

I find it odd that you're predicting The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull will make $290 million; but, you are sure it won't top $300 million. After all the difference between 290 and 300 is only 3 1/2 %.




Edited By Greg on 1213050140
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Mon Jun 09, 2008 4:19 pm

wow. i really need to revise this list. summer of 08 has sure brought us some strange surprises. i never would have thought PRINCE CASPIAN would end up making less than $150 million, and i never would have even considered SPEED RACER would make less than $50 million.

IRON MAN has proven to be the TRANSFORMERS of the year, with a bigger than expected debut and considerable staying power. what some foresaw as just another lesser comic book film (FANTASTIC FOUR, DAREDEVIL, etc.) turned out to be a critical darling among summer flicks, and a film fanboys could proudly take a date to (if fanboys actually went on dates). this film could have ended up being a surprise number one if it were not for another comic book film to be discussed later.

not only will THE KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL not break $300 million and not be the number one film of the year, it might have to struggle to be in the top five. it had a great opening, but did not stay afloat the way IRON MAN has. expectations can be tough mr. spielberg. maybe you should focus more on the artistic films and leave the blockbusters to the younger generations.

i have high hopes that RATATOUILLE undid most of the damage CARS wrought upon the pixar name (and suffered for it at the box office) and people will flock to WALL-E. i would be deeply saddened if a pixar film was once again overtaken at the box office by a lesser animated flick (ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS in 07; MADAGASCAR 2 or KUNG FU PANDA in 08 which will probably still end up in the top ten).

the trailers for HANCOCK make it look like exactly the type of film will smith is made for: big f/x comedy vehicle. i have no intention of seeing it, but even i find the trailer appealing. if the man can make boring dreck like I AM LEGEND earn $250 million, i am sure HANCOCK could possibly crack $300 million.

a lack of stupid comedies for adults seems to make TROPIC THUNDER perfect for the idiots out there that have made ben stiller, will ferrell, jack black, and their ilk very rich men.

much like RATATOUILLE did for pixar, CASINO ROYALE helped to revive the wretched james bond series. despite having the worst bond title ever, QUANTAM OF SOLACE seems ready to continue the new breed of darker and better bond films.

while it got off to a rough start, the harry potter series has surprised me with their consistently smart and entertaining entries. much like THE EMPIRE STRIKES BACK, the answer has been hiring directors who know how to handle the emotional aspects of the film and trusting the tech crew to handle all the f/x areas. considering the film is opening in november away from the summer glut, i would think it will easily be able to break $300 million.

now for the film i am still certain will be the number one film at the box office, and probably one of the best comic book films ever: THE DARK KNIGHT. the batman series sure has had its ups-and-downs, but BATMAN BEGINS definitely brought it back to true form. even before heath ledger's death, this film was easily the most anticipated film among both critics and fanboys. now that the film has passed into legend (incorrectly) as heath ledger's last performance (though probably the better of the two), i would think if the film even repeats the quality of BATMAN BEGINS critics will be falling over themselves with adoration. this combination of good reviews and fan buzz will create the big opening weekend IRON MAN enjoyed, as well as the relatively little blockbuster competition the rest of the summer allowing the film to easily cross the $300 million mark.


1. THE DARK KNIGHT -- $350
2. IRON MAN -- $310
3. THE HALF BLOOD PRINCE -- $305
4. HANCOCK -- $295
5. THE KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL -- $290
6. WALL-E -- $270
7. TROPIC THUNDER -- $220
8. MADAGASCAR 2 -- $210
9. QUANTAM OF SOLACE -- $180
10. KUNG FU PANDA -- $175




Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1213046929
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Postby Zahveed » Tue Jun 03, 2008 11:42 am

Well, I was wrong about Iron Man. I still predict TDK to take the cake, though.
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