Producers Guild Nominees

The Original BJ
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Postby The Original BJ » Tue Jan 05, 2010 6:39 pm

They want to predict the Oscars, like every other organization. How can you predict with half as many nominees?

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Postby OscarGuy » Tue Jan 05, 2010 6:28 pm

I wouldn't classify Spotless Mind as sci-fi.

Anyway, to answer your question, Damien, yes, the PGA expanded to ten shortly after the Academy made the announcement. I believe their rationale at the time was they wanted to show support for the Academy's decision.
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Postby Damien » Tue Jan 05, 2010 5:58 pm

So did the PGA decide to have 10 nominations this year to ape the Academy and offer "suggestions?"
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Postby Hollywood Z » Tue Jan 05, 2010 3:31 pm

Zahveed wrote:Was Star Wars the last sci-fi film to be nominated for Best Picture?

Only one: E.T. - The Extra Terrestrial. That could have been one factor (among their multiple flawed reasoning) as to why the Academy was not so inclined to nominate Wall-E, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind or Children of Men.




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Postby Damien » Tue Jan 05, 2010 2:30 pm

Sonic Youth wrote:The Yes Men are amazing. They even managed to con their way into the Producers Guild Nominees thread. Those are my kind of lefty radicals! :p

LOL! Whoops, was supposed to be in Last Seen Movie. :D
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Postby Zahveed » Tue Jan 05, 2010 1:57 pm

As much as I was disappointed in 9, it's nice to see its inclusion. The short film was great, the character designs creative, and the premise showed promise. It was just executed so damn horribly.

Was Star Wars the last sci-fi film to be nominated for Best Picture? Still, I'd rather see Wild Things sneak in than District 9 but it would be pleasant either way.
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Postby Sabin » Tue Jan 05, 2010 1:30 pm

I feel bad for A Serious Man. It's not my favorite movie but it really deserves far better than this.

I'd like to see Inglourious Basterds and District 9 again before I can claim to love or even like them. Right now I think they're both quality films, which is more than I can say for An Education or Precious. Haven't seen Invictus, but I do like The Hurt Locker, Star Trek, Up, and Up in the Air and Avatar is pretty fun as well. So if come Oscar morning I actually LIKE seven of the ten nominated films, I'm pretty fine with that. That's roughly equivalent to liking three or four of the five Best Picture nominees. That don't always happen!
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Postby Big Magilla » Tue Jan 05, 2010 1:17 pm

Yes, the PGA list could become Oscar's, but the difference between this list and Oscar's is that the PGA uses a weighted ballot system and Oscar uses a convoluted one where only one choice per ballot counts.

If your first Oscar pick gets enough votes for a nomination your ballot is set aside. If your pick doesn't make it, it goes into a pile from which your second pick is counted and so on until they arrive at the magic ten.

In a weighted ballot system a film that is on a lot of lists but not at the top of any of them could conceivably be among the final ten but even if Nine is on a few lists it will not likely be anywhere close enough to matter.

Invictus and possibly Star Trek may have the same problem with Oscar. I'd say they are the most vulnerable at this point. The others on the PGA list all have passionate supporters and are films that are likely to be in first or second position on the majority of ballots. The problem, though, are there any other films that large groups of voters are passionate about at this point?

A Serious Man, Where the Wild Things Are and maybe The Messenger are just about all I can think of.

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Postby Sonic Youth » Tue Jan 05, 2010 12:59 pm

The Yes Men are amazing. They even managed to con their way into the Producers Guild Nominees thread. Those are my kind of lefty radicals! :p



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Postby Damien » Tue Jan 05, 2010 12:35 pm

The Yes Men Fix The World

Corporate terrorists- humorist. It’s too smart alecky by far, and also very self-aggrandizing (Michael Moore's influence pervades), but what these guys do is still way cool, and when the film is recording their escapades, it strikes just the right balance between objectivity and contempt. It's also very funny. And any film that serves as a call to arms for progressive/lefty causes is all right in my book.

6/10
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Postby OscarGuy » Tue Jan 05, 2010 11:07 am

Cloudy certainly does lose some points for being omitted here, considering it was a box office success...and 9 was certainly not, yet it made the list. I wonder if Ponyo was eligible?

But none of these three films was popular with the Annies, though Cloudy more so than the others. And usually the most popular pop-culture animation recognized by the Annies in some measure is the one that carries through. Of course all those who were fretting over Coraline's inclusion should take heart that it was Cloudy and not Coraline that made way for 9...
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Postby Mister Tee » Tue Jan 05, 2010 11:00 am

As BJ says, this Guild used to slip in populist no-hopers when they only had five slots, so their triple sci-fi slate is vulnerable.

I would say that District 9's profile -- sleeper from nowhere, semi-witty/allegorical concept -- is a bit more likely to win over (expanded) Oscar voters than Star Trek -- which is viewed somewhat further down the scale: an already-likely hit that turned out to be surpisingly good.

Two bubble-y movies -- Invictus and An Education -- survive, though whether through inertia or the kind of enthusiasm that will lead to Academy notice will be impossible to know between now and nominations day. (Though a DGA nod for either would be a major leg up -- and a WGA omission for Invictus would hobble it)

I'm not as sanguine as many here seem to be about an ultimate best picture slot for A Serious Man -- though it may be just my usual Oscar-paranoia about my favorite fillm. I've heard murmurs that some industry-ites consider it -- in that old NY Times phrase -- "bad for the Jews", and they may just blackball it.

Semi-interesting note in animation: lots of folks have been assuming Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs was a sure-shot for the Jimmy Neutron slot at the Oscars. Does being omitted here undermine that wisdom?

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Postby anonymous1980 » Tue Jan 05, 2010 10:34 am

I think Kathryn Bigelow is an auteur.

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Postby OscarGuy » Tue Jan 05, 2010 9:58 am

One of the reasons I held onto Nine for so long was Harvey Weinstein. Only last night while I was thinking about some Oscar stuff did I realize that Harvey doesn't have anything to worry about: Inglourious Basterds will be nominated for Best Picture giving his foundering company a shot in the arm. I also think that perhaps he gave up on Nine and has put his considerable strengths behind Basterds and I think that may result in two outcomes: Christoph Waltz winning Supporting Actor and Quentin Tarantino winning Best Director. I don't think that's set in stone, but it seems to fit more with this auteurist decade than Kathryn Bigelow or Jason Reitman.

I think this locks An Education in. Such a small film earning a nod from a major organization, and one which tends to ignore such flicks. I think it has finally earned its Best Picture slot. As for the remaining films?

I think A Serious Man has the best shot of making the final list and I really think Star Trek may be the one to fall. I'm THRILLED that District 9 made this cut and I think a lot of Oscar voters may see this as a sign that it should be nominated and with Avatar already a sure thing, voters may want to recognize original Sci-Fi and not re-worked Sci-Fi.

Unlike the PGA, Academy voters don't often care whether they encourage big budget blockbusters to continue. And what would Star Trek getting a nomination mean? It would mean far more remakes of classic franchises than are currently being done, which whether you like Star Trek or not, would mean some very frustrated critics in the future.

But, it's also just as likely Star Trek could make it in with a few tech friends voting for it and District 9 be left out...or both could make it through.
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Postby The Original BJ » Tue Jan 05, 2010 9:29 am

Well, the big loser here is obviously Nine. We'll see whether or not this spells the death knell for the film, but for such a big, obvious Oscar-bait picture to miss here seems a bad (though appropriate) omen.

I continue to think, as I have since the film opened, that District 9 is more in the hunt for a Best Picture nomination than a lot of people think. This morning the film inched just a bit closer to that. (And certainly it stands more to benefit from Nine's collapse than something like The Messenger.)

The other big winner? An Education, which continues to hold on. Phew!

The Star Trek nomination will cause a lot of people to (wrongly) assume it's in for sure with Oscar. I thought this group would nominate it, no question -- they did, after all, choose the first Harry Potter, Shrek, The Incredibles, My Big Fat Greek Wedding, and The Dark Knight in five-wide fields. I think, as with those films in those years, the Academy will opt for something smaller this year, like A Serious Man.

Looks like Up was indeed eligible for the main award -- maybe the WALL-E omission here last year should have been seen as more of an Oscar bellwether than we thought.




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