Directors Guild Predictions

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Postby Mister Tee » Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:04 pm

Big Magilla wrote:
The Original BJ wrote:What will be really interesting is that we'll know the WINNERS of the PGA, DGA, AND SAG Awards before Oscar nominations are even ANNOUNCED, if I'm reading the precursor calendar correctly.

Yes, and this is a first.

The question is how many AMPAS members will hold off submitting their ballots until they've seen all those results and how will they use them? Will they they use their votes to rubber stamp or to shine a light on other contenders?

I noted this myself a while back and meant to bring it up. Having a DGA winner, especially, prior to nominations will feel weird. (Particualrly in a year where, because othe new 10-and-5, it's possible DGA will only predict half of the picture/director equation -- and I'm not certain which half)

I've always questioned whether the precursor groups influence Academy choice or merely reflect it.

One salutary effect of the late Oscar ceremony is, many of these lead-in presentations might have virtually faded from memory by the time Big Night rolls around. The one-a-week prelims have contributed to the deadening effect of recent years (especially when you saw Helen Mirren or Slumdog win at every goddamn one). There might be more freshness to this year's ceremony than that to which we've becme accustomed.

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Postby Mister Tee » Thu Jan 07, 2010 11:55 am

jack wrote:
Mister Tee wrote:
Hollywood Z wrote:Only question I have is why are the DGAs taking so long to announce their nominees? Everyone else has already done it by now, are they just taking their time?

Taking so long? It's January 7th. The Oscar nominations are almost a month away. The WGA hasn't come out yet. What's the bloody rush?

I think he means taking so long to announce today.

Are the DGA announcing this morning or just at some point today?

If that's the case, I apologize for misreading.

Though I will point out, it's not even 9AM in LA. They have no obligation to pander to East Coast conditions.

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Postby Big Magilla » Thu Jan 07, 2010 11:25 am

The Original BJ wrote:What will be really interesting is that we'll know the WINNERS of the PGA, DGA, AND SAG Awards before Oscar nominations are even ANNOUNCED, if I'm reading the precursor calendar correctly.

Yes, and this is a first.

The question is how many AMPAS members will hold off submitting their ballots until they've seen all those results and how will they use them? Will they they use their votes to rubber stamp or to shine a light on other contenders?

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Postby Sonic Youth » Thu Jan 07, 2010 11:19 am

They usually announce around 10am (their time), as I recall.
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Postby jack » Thu Jan 07, 2010 11:16 am

Mister Tee wrote:
Hollywood Z wrote:Only question I have is why are the DGAs taking so long to announce their nominees? Everyone else has already done it by now, are they just taking their time?

Taking so long? It's January 7th. The Oscar nominations are almost a month away. The WGA hasn't come out yet. What's the bloody rush?

I think he means taking so long to announce today.

Are the DGA announcing this morning or just at some point today?

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Postby The Original BJ » Thu Jan 07, 2010 11:12 am

What will be really interesting is that we'll know the WINNERS of the PGA, DGA, AND SAG Awards before Oscar nominations are even ANNOUNCED, if I'm reading the precursor calendar correctly.

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Postby Mister Tee » Thu Jan 07, 2010 11:10 am

Hollywood Z wrote:Only question I have is why are the DGAs taking so long to announce their nominees? Everyone else has already done it by now, are they just taking their time?

Taking so long? It's January 7th. The Oscar nominations are almost a month away. The WGA hasn't come out yet. What's the bloody rush?

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Postby Hollywood Z » Thu Jan 07, 2010 10:55 am

I've gotta go with rudeboy, jack & Zahveed on this one:

-Kathryn Bigelow; The Hurt Locker
-Neill Blomkamp; District 9
-James Cameron; Avatar
-Jason Reitman; Up in the Air
-Quentin Tarantino; Inglorious Basterds

The only possible upsets here would be either Clint Eastwood or Lee Daniels taking Blomkamp's spot.

Only question I have is why are the DGAs taking so long to announce their nominees? Everyone else has already done it by now, are they just taking their time?
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Thu Jan 07, 2010 10:42 am

The 4 usual suspects and one wild card.

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Lone Scherfig, An Education
Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Basterds
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-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow

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Postby Mister Tee » Thu Jan 07, 2010 10:21 am

This competition really mostly comes down to, who's your number five? Omission of Bigelow, Cameron, Reitman or Tarantino would be a Hollywood earthquake.

The DGA more often reflects the broad-based taste of the best picture category than the occasionally perceptive directing five. So, since I think Precious would have been the fifth best picture choice in an old-rules Academy year, I have to guess Daniels. But Eastwood could make it, and, I'd agree, Blomkamp is the most likely slightly-out-of-the-box choice.

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Postby Zahveed » Thu Jan 07, 2010 9:43 am

Those would be my guesses as well. I fear Blomkamp will loose his spot to someone with a less interesting film. Eastwood for example.
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Postby jack » Thu Jan 07, 2010 7:32 am

rudeboy wrote:
jack wrote:My predictions match your 5 for 5, but I'd like to add a balls-out prediction that J.J. Abrams will replace Blomkamp.

What would really shake things up (and please me) would be Abrams replacing Cameron...

I know, but that's not going to happen. Another possibility, and a very boring one at that, would be Lee Daniels replacing Blomkamp.

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Postby rudeboy » Thu Jan 07, 2010 6:56 am

jack wrote:My predictions match your 5 for 5, but I'd like to add a balls-out prediction that J.J. Abrams will replace Blomkamp.

What would really shake things up (and please me) would be Abrams replacing Cameron...

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Postby jack » Thu Jan 07, 2010 6:42 am

rudeboy wrote:Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Neill Blomkamp, District 9
James Cameron, Avatar
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Basterds

My predictions match your 5 for 5, but I'd like to add a balls-out prediction that J.J. Abrams will replace Blomkamp.




Edited By jack on 1262864555

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Postby rudeboy » Thu Jan 07, 2010 6:11 am

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Neill Blomkamp, District 9
James Cameron, Avatar
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Basterds


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