2010 Box-Office Predix - Let the guessing begin!

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Postby Sonic Youth » Sun Jan 02, 2011 9:02 pm

Hollywood finishes dismal box-office year
Updated 3h 43m ago
By Scott Bowles, USA TODAY


Hollywood coasted through the final weekend of the year, concluding the second-worst year since 1996.

Studios sold 1.35 billion movie tickets in 2010, according to a study by Hollywood.com released Sunday.

While inflation and pricey 3-D tickets drove revenues above $10 billion for only the second time, the number of tickets sold was the lowest since 1996, when 1.33 billion moviegoers clicked through turnstiles.

Back then, a movie cost $4.42 a ticket.

And there's little sign yet of recovery. Grosses have fallen the past eight weekends compared to the same two months in 2010, and Hollywood is entering a traditionally slow season at the box office.

The weekend's half-pace suited Little Fockers, which claimed the top spot at the box office for the second straight weekend with $26.3 million. The comedy starring Ben Stiller and Robert De Niro has earned $103.2 million, according to studio estimates from Exhibitor Relations.

True Grit, the heralded Western from the Coen brothers, was second with a strong $24.5 million. The film, expected to compete for Oscar's biggest prizes, has earned $86.8 million in two weeks, making it the highest-grossing film for Joel and Ethan Coen.

TRON: Legacy continued to play well, raking in $18.3 million this weekend and lifting its three-week total to $130.9 million.

Yogi Bear was fourth with $13 million, bringing its three-
week grosses to $66.1 million.

The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader rounded out the top five with $10.5 million, bringing its four-week total to $87.1 million.

Final figures are due Monday.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Mon Dec 27, 2010 3:59 pm

Sonic Youth wrote:
rolotomasi99 wrote:I am not sure why it is getting a wide release instead of a slow roll like the art house flick it is. I cannot imagine it making any more than $15 m by the end of Sunday.

Oh, come on. Even if True Grit doesn't do well, it's not going to make only $15 million on a holiday weekend. You're way too pessimistic.

Sometimes the idiot masses surprise me. TRUE GRIT did $25 m over the weekend and $36 m by Sunday. Very happy to be wrong.

LITTLE FOCKERS may be number one but $48 m by Sunday was pathetic compared to the $70 m five-day total for MEET THE FOCKERS. Given the toxic response on imdb, I am hoping it drops enough next weekend for TRUE GRIT to be number one. That would be a great way to end 2010 and begin 2011.




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Postby Sonic Youth » Thu Dec 23, 2010 12:08 pm

Sabin wrote:People can't wait for True Grit. It'll likely make twice what you're predicting by Sunday.

More.
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Postby Sabin » Thu Dec 23, 2010 11:59 am

People can't wait for True Grit. It'll likely make twice what you're predicting by Sunday. It's not a limited release film. It cost $25 mil and likely twice that in P&A. It's going to do just fine.
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Postby Sonic Youth » Thu Dec 23, 2010 11:40 am

rolotomasi99 wrote:I am not sure why it is getting a wide release instead of a slow roll like the art house flick it is. I cannot imagine it making any more than $15 m by the end of Sunday.

Oh, come on. Even if True Grit doesn't do well, it's not going to make only $15 million on a holiday weekend. You're way too pessimistic.

I know Christmas Eve is not a big movie-going day, but to not even open your film on Friday because it is the day before Christmas is just bizarre.


Lots of theaters close early on Christmas Eve, so there really is no point in opening it on Friday. But it is true that a movie opening on Christmas Day (unless Xmas falls on Wednesday or Friday) is a movie the studio wants to dump and forget about.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Wed Dec 22, 2010 5:22 pm

I am one of the few people who did not enjoy MEET THE PARENTS. I rarely enjoy heterosexual rom-coms, but this one was particularly bad since the family of Ben Stiller's fiance was so awful I could not root for their relationship at all. I just kept wanting him to flee.
When I heard they were making a sequel, I thought for sure it would bomb like ANALYZE THAT and THE WHOLE TEN YARDS. I was as pissed as I was surprised when not only did it not bomb, but it became one of the highest grossing comedies ever.
I am not sure what this next sequel will bring. The reviews have been pretty horrible (8% on rottentomatoes vs 38% for MEET THE FOCKERS), but audiences have shown they are complete morons time and time again.
Films that do not open on weekends are harder for me to predict. I am going to say it makes $20 m over the weekend for $40 m by the end of Sunday. It little competition, it will definitely do well. I think it will make $180 m altogether.

I am super excited to see TRUE GRIT. There have been several films I have enjoyed this year, but nothing so far has struck me as being a truly great piece of cinema. From the great reviews I have been reading, it sounds like the Coens' new little Western might just be that. I have always enjoyed the Coens films, but this is the first movie from them I have eagerly anticipated. I am not a big western fan, but this just looks like great movie-making.
I am not sure why it is getting a wide release instead of a slow roll like the art house flick it is. I cannot imagine it making any more than $15 m by the end of Sunday. If it is still in theatres when Oscar noms are announced and the Academy nominates it for several big awards, maybe it will do well. I am just worried it will not pull people in before then, and the multiplexes will push it out for whatever January crap the studios have to offer. I think $40 m is the most it can do.

I know Christmas Eve is not a big movie-going day, but to not even open your film on Friday because it is the day before Christmas is just bizarre. I do not know if a studio has ever done this with a big budget family film. I recently read GULLIVER’S TRAVELS is tracking horribly. With only two days instead of three, I am thinking it will not be able to do more than $15 m its first weekend. I would be surprised if it makes it past $60 m.

What a dreadful way to end 2010.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Tue Dec 21, 2010 5:31 pm

MovieWes wrote:Tron Legacy opened to $44 million. Not bad, but certainly way below Disney's expectations. $200 million is still in play, but it's not going to be easy. $300 million is probably impossible at this point.

What a horrid weekend. Pretty much everything was below expectations. Some bombed big time like YOGI BEAR and HOW DO YOU KNOW, while others just were not as big as was hoped for like TRON LEGACY, BLACK SWAN, and THE FIGHTER.

TRON LEGACY's opening is not good, but all hope is not lost. After all, its weekend grosses are the same as ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS and NATIONAL TREASURE 2 which went on to make a little more than $200 m.

The only good news for TRON LEGACY is the very weak competition it faces in the next few weeks. Only LITTLE FOCKERS has any real chance of success. TRUE GRIT will only draw art house crowds despite the wide release, and GUILLVER'S TRAVELS is not opening until Saturday for some reason and is tracking horribly. All of January is filled with films which will probably make less than $50 m except THE GREEN HORNET (which will still make less than a $100 m) and THE DILEMMA.

Unless people decide to just not go to movies at all in January, they will probably check out TRON LEGACY eventually. When they do, they will probably pay for a 3D ticket. I had such high hopes that ALICE IN WONDERLAND would not be the number 2 film of the year. Oh, well. At least TOY STORY 3 is number 1.
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Postby MovieWes » Mon Dec 20, 2010 5:27 pm

Tron Legacy opened to $44 million. Not bad, but certainly way below Disney's expectations. $200 million is still in play, but it's not going to be easy. $300 million is probably impossible at this point.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Dec 17, 2010 12:12 pm

It has finally arrived. After two years of teasing us with some great f/x action sequences, TRON LEGACY is here to bathe us in its neon blue glory. As I said in another thread, I generally dislike big budget mainstream films. I much prefer art house fare. There were only three big budget Hollywood films I was looking forward to in 2010. The first two, INCEPTION and TOY STORY 3 exceeded my wildest expectations. If all Hollywood films were this good, mainstream would not be such a dirty word when it came to film.
My excitement for TRON LEGACY is not based on the same criteria I had for the other two films I mentioned. I expected them to be well made and entertaining. This one I just expect to be entertaining. It is very hard to say how a sequel to a nearly 20 year old film that was never really a hit is going to do. The marketing started very early and has been reaching a fever pitch in the past few weeks. The reviews have been so-so, with no one outright loving it and certainly a few people hating it. However, all the reviews agree the film is visually amazing and actually utilizes its 3D well.
Unlike KICK-ASS and SCOTT PILGRIM VS THE WORLD, I think fanboy excitement will be met with equal enthusiasm from the general public. In the spirit of AVATAR and the Tolkein trilogy, TRON LEGACY is going to be the perfect end of the year spectacle film the whole family will want to check out. It also has great repeat viewing potential for the teen boys and grown-up “kids” who want to be blown away.
I am thinking the extra 3D price could give TRON LEGACY a good $90 m opening. Since it faces little competition in the action film arena for this holiday season, I think it could pass Disney’s other 3D extravaganza from this year and become the second highest grossing film of the year (making the three top films of the year all from one studio). A final gross around $350 m seems very plausible.

I am not sure about the other two new wide releases this weekend. Since I dislike rom-coms in general, I can never tell which ones the public will embrace and which they will ignore. HOW DO YOU KNOW brings a better pedigree than is typical to the genre thanks to writer/director James L. Brooks. However, rom-com audiences could care less about that sort of thing. All they want to know is if it will satisfy their pornographic need to see attractive people quibble for two hours about whether they are actually in love. Surprise, they almost always are! Still, will it be a success like THE PROPOSAL or a flop like ALL ABOUT STEVE? The idiot masses will soon tell us, but I am going to go with minor flop. It just seems be missing the spark folks seem to like from these films. An opening weekend of$20 m (at the most), followed by a quick drop, with $60 m all together (again, at the most).

For every great family film hit out there, there must be a horrible family film which somehow makes quite a bit of money. If the two ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS films have proven anything, families will go to see pretty much any swill during the Christmas period. I am hoping YOGI BEAR will not be as big a hit as those other horrible films, but it seems pretty likely it will be popular. I think $35 m is around where it will open, with hopefully no more than $125 m altogether.

Two art house hits will be expanding. THE FIGHTER will ride its wave of award nominations and strong reviews to a decent opening. Given that it will be in more than 2,000 theatres and will be one of the few end-of-the-year Oscar hopefuls most people will be able to see, it could easily earn $20 m this weekend. If general audiences respond to its story and it continues to rack up notices, it could go on to a healthy $80 m total gross.
BLACK SWAN is expanding from 90 theatres to more than 900. While I always thought it would be an art house hit, I never for a second considered it reaching general audiences. I am not sure where all of these 900 theatres are, but they cannot all be in big cities where these types of films usually play. Perhaps the movie will be embraced as a psycho-sexual thriller as Mister Tee suggested in another thread, rather than just the ballet fever-dream drama it was intended as. I know that at the very least enough people will be curious to check it out that I think it will make $10 m this weekend. While this is certainly good for 900 theatres, it does not mean it will be a hit in fly-over country. Assuming it does not break out of its art house niche, I think it will make a great final gross of $40 m. However, if regular folks decide it is sexy, scary, and fun, $60 m seems entirely possible. I have my doubts about how adventurous US audiences are.
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Postby The Original BJ » Mon Dec 13, 2010 2:42 am

MovieWes wrote:My girlfriend and I went to go see "Dawn Treader" today and it was horrible.

There is also a child in this movie that makes me want to take back everything mean I said about the kid in The Blind Side.

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Postby MovieWes » Mon Dec 13, 2010 2:26 am

My girlfriend and I went to go see "Dawn Treader" today and it was horrible. Far worse than I ever expected it would be or imagined it could be. This is the end of the franchise. This movie won't have legs and will not reach $100 million. Hell, this will have trouble reaching $80 million. And to be honest, I'm glad this is the end. I won't be returning to Narnia ever again, even if they for some reason decide to carry on. Good riddance I say.



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Postby OscarGuy » Sun Dec 12, 2010 9:06 am

Narnia's biggest problem wasn't attracting religious audiences...it was attracting families in general. And the second film wasn't very good, which drove a lot of people away from the films. So, it's no surprise that the third film is performing poorly. Yet, the poorness of its performance is still rather surprising because it's in 3D as well, which means these numbers are even more disappointing.

I guess I'm kind of glad. When you "focus on the family" but do so through religious means even if the story has heavy-handed Christian allegory, you risk not appealing to other families who aren't interested in seeing a religious film. Let's remember that apart from The Passion of the Christ and the Chronicles films, the highest grossing "Christian" film was The Nativity Story with $37 M. Obviously, this is not a group that really responds and goes to the movies.

I have always thought that the Christian Family argument that was bandied about for the success of the first film was over inflated. I went to see the film because I had read the books. It had nothing to do with the religious allegory...it was because we were looking for the next big Lord of the Rings franchise. A film based on a beloved children's book that millions of adults of all ages read when they were young. That's the reason for its success, not because religious groups came out in droves. This isn't Passion of the Christ people. And look at that film's performance on re-release. It's hardly done well. So, hopefully this will show to studios that catering to a very narrow, non-theater-friendly group of Americans is not going to steer your films to success.
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Postby Mister Tee » Sat Dec 11, 2010 8:58 pm

Obviously the absolute numbers aren't as big, but I'd say Black Swan is the bigger story here. Its opening week was sensational, but it could easily have been a one-week wonder, especially if word-of-mouth had been poisonous. Instead, this kind of per-screen average (somewhere between $30,000 and 40,000, incredible for a film as wide as 90 theatres), suggests audiences -- at least the vast portion -- are responding to it. It could still hit a wall somewhere along the line, but this isn't 127 Hours; it's going to have a serious gross.

The Fighter opened to high numbers -- near the average The King's Speech hit over Thanksgiving -- but it's only at 4 theatres, so all you can say is, damn good start.

Speaking of King's Speech, it continues to do perfectly well -- probably a $25,000 average in 19 theatres -- but, instead of being the seasonal standout it appeared two weeks ago, it's now just one of several grown-up efforts doing well, and maybe not the most notable of the bunch.

Mix in the over $90 million of The Social Network, and this is one of the most encouraging stretches for serious film in quite some time.

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Postby MovieWes » Sat Dec 11, 2010 12:20 pm

Horrible start for "Narnia." I guess I now know which of my scenarios is going to play out now...

FRIDAY PM/SATURDAY AM - 3RD UPDATE: Here are the Top 10 North American motion pictures. Both Fox's The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Voyage Of The Dawn Treader and GK Films' The Tourist underperformed Friday. Interesting that Fox Searchlight's Black Swan cracked the Top 10 despite playing in only 90 locations. That momentum should help its Oscar chances. I also hear that Paramount/Relativity's The Fighter platformed really big tonight -- $90K from 4 theaters:

1. Chronicles Of Narnia/Voyage Of Dawn Teader 3D (Walden/Fox) NEW [3,555 Theaters]
Friday $9M, Estimated Weekend $28M

Fox management will be glad to see 2010 end. A weekend opening of $40 million for Narnia 3 would have been a home run for the studio restarting this fantasy franchise. Instead, Fox has only the low end of what it wanted: high $20sM. But "the real story of this movie’s performance may well be the multiple off its opening and not the opening itself," a Fox exec emailed me. "Word of mouth about a great family film will serve us well as we move into the holidays." Narnia 3's budget of under $150 million, even with Walden still the co-financier, means this pic's grosses better pick up -- and quickly. (Still, that budget is nearly $100M below the second film. Plus Narnia 3 was shot in Australia, New Zealand, and the UK because of tax and currency conversion reasons.)

Fox really pulled out all the stops, including a London Royal Premiere in London with the Queen herself. The studio dated this PG threequel the same opening time frame as the first blockbuster film, and Fox took great pains to reestablish ties with the faith-based communities who made the first film such a hit and were ignored by the 2nd film, which was released in summer and promoted with a lot of battle imagery. To that end, Fox hired Christian PR consultancy Grace Hill Media to reach out to churches, religious radio, faith-based websites, and so on. "The biggest hurdle was how to resurrect the franchise after the second film left the perception of a failed franchise," a Fox insider tells me. The Walden franchise had been at Disney, then moved to Fox because of a relationship dating back some years: Elizabeth Gabler at Fox 2000 originally wanted the series and pitched Walden on it before it went to Disney. When it became available again, Fox Filmed Entertainment co-chairmen Tom Rothman and Jim Gianopulos felt the franchise had a lot of life left in it, and Narnia just needed to be re-configured and re-launched.

2. The Tourist (GK Films/Sony) NEW [2,756 Theaters]
Friday $6.5M, Estimated Weekend $18.5M

When Angelina says to Johnny in the trailer, "I'm sorry I got you involved in this", we now know what she meant... Who knew? Not the distributor Sony Pictures which saw a fun sexy PG-13 thriller starring what’s surely the world’s hottest pairing right now and decided it was a big commercial pic that was going to play great during the crowded holiday season. Oops! But The Tourist really struggled on tracking all the way up until Thursday when it saw a jump. "But I think that jump may be more a function of marketing support rather than genuine interest," a rival studio exec told me. Then again this GK Film in association with Spyglass Entertainment is produced by Graham King and directed by Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck who, so the production notes claim, presented his vision of The Tourist to King who took all of 30 minutes to decide to finance and produce the film. During its shoot, The Tourist paralyzed Venice and those parts of Italy where it was filming. (At one point, production was shut down because too many fans showed up trying to get pics.) The Tourist's savior may well be international. European distributor Studio Canal planned the biggest ever release across Europe because it’s a remake of its own 2005 film, Anthony Zimmer.

English screenwriter Julian Fellowes wrote the original screenplay while American screenwriters Christopher McQuarrie (Valkyrie) and Jeffrey Nachmanoff (Traitor) did the rewrites about an American tourist drawn into a web of intrigue by a female Interpol agent. The production history of this movie was as convoluted as any thriller. Donnersmarck had previously dropped out of directing The Tourist. At that point Sam Worthington was going to play opposite Jolie. And Worthington only came on board after Tom Cruise dropped out. Cruise was originally going to star opposite Charlize Theron as the Interpol agent. Marketing was aimed at women, so the TV spots were bought during the Macy's Thanksgiving Parade, Barbara Walters/Oprah interview, etc. Talent participated in a worldwide press junket in Paris and the cast and director are currently on a European tour.

3. Tangled (Disney) Week 3 [3,565 Theaters]
Friday $3.4M, Estimated Weekend $14.5M, Cume $115.5M

4. Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, Pt 1 (Warner Bros) Week 4 [3,577 Theaters]
Friday $2.3M, Estimated Weekend $8.5M, Cume $257.7M

5. Unstoppable (Fox) Week 5 [2,967 Theaters]
Friday $1.1M, Estimated Weekend $3.8M, Cume $74.2M

6. Burlesque (Screen Gems/Sony) Week 3
Friday $1M, Estimated Weekend $3.2M, Estimated Cume $32.7M

7. Love And Other Drugs (Fox) Week 3
Friday $1M, Estimated Weekend $3M, Estimated Cume $27.6M

8. Black Swan (Fox Searchlight) Week 2 [90 Theaters]
Friday $925K, Estimated Weekend $3M, Estimated Cume $5.3M

9. Due Date (Warner Bros) Week 6
Friday $825K, Estimated Weekend $2.5M, Estimated Cume $94.8M

10. Megamind 3D (DreamWorks Animation/Paramount) Week 7
Friday $775K, Estimated Weekend $3M, Estimated Cume $140.8M




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Postby Greg » Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:22 pm

Does anyone have any idea about, on average, how much films make theatrically vs. how much they make on video/dvd/Interner rental/etc.?


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